Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Sept 10, 2022 12:04:44 GMT -5
AFC EAST
After a two-year hiatus from the division crown, Sal finally reclaimed his throne atop the AFC East, in dominating fashion. He left no doubt, winning the AFC East by 5 games—a real outlier in league history, given that three teams had made the playoffs the year before, and the division was won by two different teams over the previous two seasons. It proved that his tactical retreat of sorts as he approached the postseason in 2019, was ultimately worth it, as he made it to the AFC Championship Game, losing only to the eventual champion Cincinnati Bengals. New York and New England, however, both fell way off of their 2020 pace in terms of scoring, and they won three and one fewer game(s) respectively. Ultimately, neither team made the playoffs due to tiebreaker scenarios, which represented a disappointment for the division, as each had made the cut the previous season. Miami stayed at the bottom as a doormat, and is in desperate need of a resurrection, sandwiching a half decade of bottom-feeding around a lone playoff appearance from the former GM Josh Castle in 2019. Can Yuli,, another new Miami GM, make that happen? Can the two previous contending teams climb back up the ladder? Or is Sal’s team just blossoming in its start of another dynasty? We shall soon know all of those answers. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Buffalo Bills (Sal)
Last year’s finish: 4th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Sal enjoyed a renaissance year out of Matthew Stafford in 2021, pairing up with Cooper Kupp to form one of the best single-season tandems of all time, and it helped to propel him to one win away from being in the Super Bowl. With an injury already threatening Stafford this year, will he be able to repeat as division champ? More on that later. What Stafford’s effect really was on this team was that it blunted the absence of one Derrick Henry, who missed his first significant time last year. That, alongside of great production from A.J. Dillon, Mike Williams, and Amari Cooper, helped nurse Buffalo through the last half of the year. Sal has since moved on from Williams, and has replaced him with Mike Evans, who outside of possibly a few health exceptions, is as consistent a receiver as any in league history, having produced 1,000+ yards in each of his first eight seasons. He also probably had a slight win by acquiring Hunter Renfrow in his trade of Marquez Valdes-Scantling—and upgraded his tight end, at least long-term, with Brevin Jordan rather than a decrepit Jared Cook. But, and as always, as Sal tends to operate right at the cap, there is not a lot of depth on that side of the ball, and there is no contract room to bid on any players at the moment. Defensively, this is a much improved roster, highlighted by the addition of Myles Garrett, who alongside Jonathan Greenard, make it a top-10 unit at least. There are, however, no backups at the spot, and moving for one would necessitate cutting some cap. At linebacker, C.J. Mosley still leads the way, and had a very effective rebound season last year after missing 2020 with a leg injury. He’s joined by Alex Singleton, Josh Allen, Deion Jones, and Garrett Wallow—though the final two of those names likely aren’t getting a lot of run. In the defensive backfield, it’s a reprise for Adrian Phillips, and new names Tracy Walker, and Marlon Humphrey help make it a top-half unit at worst. John Johnson, provided he gets a fair amount of snaps, could play a part as well.
X-factor: Depth and health. Especially on offense, Sal’s bench is pretty bare bones. As Henry nearly proved last year, losing a foundational piece like that changes things for any team—even one as well constructed as Buffalo’s starting lineup is. So, it’s imperative that Sal has good reserves to weather any storms that come. And that question may truly come back to Stafford and his health this year. Already suffering arm issues, and only practicing on a limited basis, it causes concern about his long-term availability/viability. However, if Sal gets that health, it’s hard to say he’s not a top-two or top-three team in the AFC. In that circumstance, he’s cruising to a division title. If not, then Sal’s plans are going to have to change quickly to reflect that.
Projected division finish: 1st
Miami Dolphins (Yuli)
Last year’s finish: 31st (Division: 4th)
Outlook: For the second-consecutive year, the Dolphins finished last in the AFC East, and 30th in the league. Despite finding another GM, it was the third Miami GM in as many years to manage the team, and the third one to leave at the end of the year. Yuli has stepped in this year, and we wish him well, but he has a monumental job to do. At least Darrell (The most recent GM) stocked the cupboard with some talent—though most of that talent wasn’t at premium positions. While Darrell did take Kyle Pitts (Who, don’t get me wrong, was very good as a rookie, but whom the hype train has been insane for), he did little else to address the persistent, glaring issues that the Dolphins have encountered, and ultimately, they fared no better than the previous season even with Pitts. There are several quality players on both sides of the ball, however, with A.J. Brown and rookie runner Kenneth Walker, and a cadre of elite defensive linemen. Outside of those offensive stalwarts in Brown, Pitts, and Walker, there are quarterback Ryan Tannehill, 3rd-down back J.D. McKissic, tight end Mo Alie-Cox, rookie RB Hassan Haskins, and a whole slew of players that were released at final cuts. Until and unless those players pick up a job with a significant role, the bench will completely comprised of dead weight. Defensively, it’s all over the map for the Dolphins, as Yuli has four of the best DL in the league (Chase Young, Nick Bosa, Zach Alen, and Javon Kinlaw), and almost nothing in the form of linebackers. Four players will comprise that unit, led by Leonard Floyd and Za’Darius Smith, and Cameron McGrone, and Adetokunbo. At defensive back, Donte and Adoree’ Jackson are starters, but Mike Hilton, Bryce Hall, an Daxton Hill are looking for playing time in the real NFL. Ultimately, it looks like it’s going to be another long year for the Dolphins—thought that could change. It’s entirely possible that Yuli could even double the franchise’s wins from last year.
X-factor: Activity/building. It may seem redundant; as I wrote this last year—but that was different GM. It’s clear that Yuli has a lot to work with from a talent perspective. He just has to adjust to the new format, and improve his activity, and maybe in a short amount of time, he’ll have the Dolphins turned around and ready for contention again.
Projected division finish: 4th
New England Patriots (Chris)
Last year’s finish: 20th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: A year removed from an impressive 7-5 season (Considering the season-ending injuries and COVID opt-outs to some of his most significant players), the Patriots fell to the wrong side of .500 in 2021. Chris will try to get back on that playoff horse this year, but it will take a not insignificant amount of things to break his way to make that happen. First off, at the top of the roster, the Patriots are likely downgrading from Kirk Cousins to the Mitchell Trubisky/Kenny Pickett combo—but it’s not clear if that slide will actually materialize or not (All the puns). Certainly having a 1st Round rookie pick as a signal-caller gives him more upside than the aging Cousins, but Trubisky has failed to impress (Though in several less-than-ideal situations), despite being long on talent, and Pickett is unproven as a pro. Mark the chances of their combined success in this changing of the guard under we’ll see. At running back, Chris made a bold move over the off-season, moving on from Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattinson for 2021 rookie sensation Elijah Mitchell, and the rights to the #24 pick (Which landed him Cowboys’ rookie Jalen Tolbert—though even with Michael Gallup and James Washington’s absences, apparently he has failed to take the bull by the horns thus far). Even still, New England does have a bonafide receiver (In Tyler Boyd), even if his production has shrunk slightly with the additions of Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins to his position. However, beyond those two names, all New England possesses are Rashard Higgins, the serial hanger-on to a roster spot, Laquon Treadwell, and youngsters Shi Smith, Jalen Nailor, and T.J. Vasher. While the Boyd trade does help (And it came at the expense of Cameron Jordan), without more investment at that position, it’s going to be tough to reliably score points there. At tight end, the off-season move for Dawson Knox was a bold one (And one that didn’t pay dividends in the season opener, though it does serve to get $11 of cap off of New England’s roster). While Knox will now face more competition for targets with a now seemingly ready to rock Gabriel Davis in his offense, he should also be reaching the height of his powers as well. Defensively, things are less sure, with no starting off-ball linebackers in the mix, New England could struggle to produce points in the middle of his lineup. Khalil Mack missed more than half a season last year, is now over 30, and had his second-worst ever year on a points per game basis. He should be rejuvenated now as Joey Bosa’s bookend in LA, though it’s far from a certainty that he’ll return to his career peak, coming off of an injury at 31. Shaquil Barrett is the other major name of the position, and he has been a sack machine over the past three seasons. If both he and Mack meet their career benchmarks, then New England won’t hurt for not having any off-ball backers. Otherwise, he will be relying on only a threesome of EDGE defenders, including former defensive lineman D.J. Wonnum. Speaking of the DL, Chris made the boldest of bold moves in selecting rookie Adam Hutchinson in the first round of the 2022 CDFL Rookie Draft. Though the history of selecting a DL in the 1st Round is pretty grim, and often doesn’t match the price tag attached to acquiring the player, getting the best EDGE rusher in a class usually does pay off, and if Hutchinson becomes that, it may be well worth a late 1st Round investment (And it helps to replace the departed Jordan, at least in theory). In terms of compatriots to pair him with, the Patriots have only Justin Jones, who exploded into fantasy relevance last year, but is short on production prior to that (And who has also never finished a season), and Tanoh Kpassagnon, who may become a factor in his sixth year as a pro, but also whose play hasn’t convinced many fantasy players that it’s worth learning how to spell/pronounce his name/roster him. It’s likely a middling unit. At defensive back, the Pats lost Trevon Diggs in the Ertz/Knox trade, but also got back Xavien Howard. It’s a slight downgrade, but also, it’s already New England’s biggest position of strength, as it also includes Charvarius Ward, Rasul Douglas, and rookies (And likely future factors) Derek Stingley Jr., and Kair Elam. This is the biggest area of surplus from which he could likely trade to acquire some semblance of linebacking or receiver help.
X-factor: Wide receiver and linebacker. It’s clear that Chris has begun a transition with a different set of players. Whether or not that constitutes a rebuild will be up to the performances of those players. But, it’s certainly a reset. There are two fairly large holes/gaps that are keeping the Patriots from the top of the AFC/the league, and those are the two as listed above. Until and unless he can improve those, I think that this is year-1 of the rebuild, and that year-2 holds much more promise. While I have the Pats picked for 2nd in this division, there’s clearly a gulf in class, and I have New England missing out on the playoffs just slightly.
Projected division finish: 2nd
New York Jets (Travis)
Last year’s finish: 18th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: The New York Jets entered the 2021 season as reigning AFC Champions (Travis’ first), and ended the year in third place, with a losing record. How did a team on the upward swing for several years fall so far so quickly? Well, it turns out that his 2020 success was unsustainable (Namely in terms of age and contracts), and he needed to adapt going forward. To his credit, Travis took that note and started the teardown well before the deadline last year, maximizing his return. He realized that players like Adam Thielen, Zach Ertz, Aaron Donald, and Bobby Wagner—Each over 30 and on a 1-year deals of at least $6 (And three of those on $8+ deals), would not be producers for him down the line, and if he already wasn’t winning, there was no virtue in keeping them around. Sometimes, it’s just the end of the run, and that was certainly the case for the Jets with that group. Also, as good as those players were individually, they masked many holes on the roster. Some of those deficiencies included: a need for a second wide receiver/more depth at the position, the average age of the roster creeping closer to 30, and 11 of those players being in the last year of their deal (Particularly for the more expensive ones, that means losing them for free). In terms of the first complaint levied above, Travis may have found his second WR of the future in 22-year-old sophomore to be Terrace Marshall, who did not impress as a rookie, but also, suffered through some of the worst quarterback play in the league last year. Added to 23-year old Donovan Peoples-Jones, they make a salivating pair. For good measure, New York acquired James Washington in the offseason as well (Though he promptly became injured, and will miss at least a portion of the season on IR). As for the other names there, Tyquan Thornton, Mike Strachan, and Simi Fehoko all have their backers within the fantasy community, but none of them have proven to be a fantasy asset yet. In terms of the second matter, the average age of his roster is now hovering around 26. That, coupled with the main players that he kept: Kyzir White, Chase Edmonds, and Kenyan Drake, help his long-term viability, and could themselves become trade assets if it doesn’t go right this year. That burden may rest on third-year starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has looked more like a game manager through two years rather than the guy who generated #TankForTua memes, has disappointed. There have been rumblings each of the last two off seasons about him losing his job—and that should be even louder now that Miami’s backup is recent starter, Teddy Bridgewater. If Tua struggles early on, Miami may be willing to pivot to Bridgewater rather quickly. Running back, however, should carry the day, with all of Chase Edmonds, Kenyan Drake, and rookie James Cook. None of them are breakaway stars yet, but it’s good quality an depth at the present time, and that should help to propel him to several wins. The tight end position is pretty moribund though, with no starters at the position. Defensively, there is a lot of room to grow. Yes, Kyzir White broke out in a big way in 2021, but very few among the rest of the group of young veterans and a scant number of rookies, has a pathway to score more than a few points per game at present. Though things can certainly change, this unit is what puts New York firmly into the rebuilding territory, as it’s one of the bottom-5 defenses in the league, White’s contributions notwithstanding.
X-factor: Building it back. New York has already proven their mettle under Travis, winning a competitive division in 2020, and finishing with a 9-3 record. Very few GMs in league history can stake a claim to having a season like that. While, yes, it was a down year for division rival Buffalo (Sal), he won it on his own merits, and with his excellent cast of veterans—veterans who aged beyond their usefulness/ability to be extended, and the reset button was in need of being hit. So, for year-1 in that respect, Travis is off to a pretty good start. The defense is a long way from functional, and I expect that we will all seem him build that across this season and the next few. But for now, it’s nowhere near ready to compete. Even if he overachieves and leaps the Patriots, it would be hard to see a team with a unit this lacking in players with guaranteed playing time/snaps make any noise.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Thank you for reading this, the third in the series of Divisional Previews. I will publish the fourth installment tomorrow. Next up, it's the NFC East.
After a two-year hiatus from the division crown, Sal finally reclaimed his throne atop the AFC East, in dominating fashion. He left no doubt, winning the AFC East by 5 games—a real outlier in league history, given that three teams had made the playoffs the year before, and the division was won by two different teams over the previous two seasons. It proved that his tactical retreat of sorts as he approached the postseason in 2019, was ultimately worth it, as he made it to the AFC Championship Game, losing only to the eventual champion Cincinnati Bengals. New York and New England, however, both fell way off of their 2020 pace in terms of scoring, and they won three and one fewer game(s) respectively. Ultimately, neither team made the playoffs due to tiebreaker scenarios, which represented a disappointment for the division, as each had made the cut the previous season. Miami stayed at the bottom as a doormat, and is in desperate need of a resurrection, sandwiching a half decade of bottom-feeding around a lone playoff appearance from the former GM Josh Castle in 2019. Can Yuli,, another new Miami GM, make that happen? Can the two previous contending teams climb back up the ladder? Or is Sal’s team just blossoming in its start of another dynasty? We shall soon know all of those answers. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Buffalo Bills (Sal)
Last year’s finish: 4th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Sal enjoyed a renaissance year out of Matthew Stafford in 2021, pairing up with Cooper Kupp to form one of the best single-season tandems of all time, and it helped to propel him to one win away from being in the Super Bowl. With an injury already threatening Stafford this year, will he be able to repeat as division champ? More on that later. What Stafford’s effect really was on this team was that it blunted the absence of one Derrick Henry, who missed his first significant time last year. That, alongside of great production from A.J. Dillon, Mike Williams, and Amari Cooper, helped nurse Buffalo through the last half of the year. Sal has since moved on from Williams, and has replaced him with Mike Evans, who outside of possibly a few health exceptions, is as consistent a receiver as any in league history, having produced 1,000+ yards in each of his first eight seasons. He also probably had a slight win by acquiring Hunter Renfrow in his trade of Marquez Valdes-Scantling—and upgraded his tight end, at least long-term, with Brevin Jordan rather than a decrepit Jared Cook. But, and as always, as Sal tends to operate right at the cap, there is not a lot of depth on that side of the ball, and there is no contract room to bid on any players at the moment. Defensively, this is a much improved roster, highlighted by the addition of Myles Garrett, who alongside Jonathan Greenard, make it a top-10 unit at least. There are, however, no backups at the spot, and moving for one would necessitate cutting some cap. At linebacker, C.J. Mosley still leads the way, and had a very effective rebound season last year after missing 2020 with a leg injury. He’s joined by Alex Singleton, Josh Allen, Deion Jones, and Garrett Wallow—though the final two of those names likely aren’t getting a lot of run. In the defensive backfield, it’s a reprise for Adrian Phillips, and new names Tracy Walker, and Marlon Humphrey help make it a top-half unit at worst. John Johnson, provided he gets a fair amount of snaps, could play a part as well.
X-factor: Depth and health. Especially on offense, Sal’s bench is pretty bare bones. As Henry nearly proved last year, losing a foundational piece like that changes things for any team—even one as well constructed as Buffalo’s starting lineup is. So, it’s imperative that Sal has good reserves to weather any storms that come. And that question may truly come back to Stafford and his health this year. Already suffering arm issues, and only practicing on a limited basis, it causes concern about his long-term availability/viability. However, if Sal gets that health, it’s hard to say he’s not a top-two or top-three team in the AFC. In that circumstance, he’s cruising to a division title. If not, then Sal’s plans are going to have to change quickly to reflect that.
Projected division finish: 1st
Miami Dolphins (Yuli)
Last year’s finish: 31st (Division: 4th)
Outlook: For the second-consecutive year, the Dolphins finished last in the AFC East, and 30th in the league. Despite finding another GM, it was the third Miami GM in as many years to manage the team, and the third one to leave at the end of the year. Yuli has stepped in this year, and we wish him well, but he has a monumental job to do. At least Darrell (The most recent GM) stocked the cupboard with some talent—though most of that talent wasn’t at premium positions. While Darrell did take Kyle Pitts (Who, don’t get me wrong, was very good as a rookie, but whom the hype train has been insane for), he did little else to address the persistent, glaring issues that the Dolphins have encountered, and ultimately, they fared no better than the previous season even with Pitts. There are several quality players on both sides of the ball, however, with A.J. Brown and rookie runner Kenneth Walker, and a cadre of elite defensive linemen. Outside of those offensive stalwarts in Brown, Pitts, and Walker, there are quarterback Ryan Tannehill, 3rd-down back J.D. McKissic, tight end Mo Alie-Cox, rookie RB Hassan Haskins, and a whole slew of players that were released at final cuts. Until and unless those players pick up a job with a significant role, the bench will completely comprised of dead weight. Defensively, it’s all over the map for the Dolphins, as Yuli has four of the best DL in the league (Chase Young, Nick Bosa, Zach Alen, and Javon Kinlaw), and almost nothing in the form of linebackers. Four players will comprise that unit, led by Leonard Floyd and Za’Darius Smith, and Cameron McGrone, and Adetokunbo. At defensive back, Donte and Adoree’ Jackson are starters, but Mike Hilton, Bryce Hall, an Daxton Hill are looking for playing time in the real NFL. Ultimately, it looks like it’s going to be another long year for the Dolphins—thought that could change. It’s entirely possible that Yuli could even double the franchise’s wins from last year.
X-factor: Activity/building. It may seem redundant; as I wrote this last year—but that was different GM. It’s clear that Yuli has a lot to work with from a talent perspective. He just has to adjust to the new format, and improve his activity, and maybe in a short amount of time, he’ll have the Dolphins turned around and ready for contention again.
Projected division finish: 4th
New England Patriots (Chris)
Last year’s finish: 20th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: A year removed from an impressive 7-5 season (Considering the season-ending injuries and COVID opt-outs to some of his most significant players), the Patriots fell to the wrong side of .500 in 2021. Chris will try to get back on that playoff horse this year, but it will take a not insignificant amount of things to break his way to make that happen. First off, at the top of the roster, the Patriots are likely downgrading from Kirk Cousins to the Mitchell Trubisky/Kenny Pickett combo—but it’s not clear if that slide will actually materialize or not (All the puns). Certainly having a 1st Round rookie pick as a signal-caller gives him more upside than the aging Cousins, but Trubisky has failed to impress (Though in several less-than-ideal situations), despite being long on talent, and Pickett is unproven as a pro. Mark the chances of their combined success in this changing of the guard under we’ll see. At running back, Chris made a bold move over the off-season, moving on from Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattinson for 2021 rookie sensation Elijah Mitchell, and the rights to the #24 pick (Which landed him Cowboys’ rookie Jalen Tolbert—though even with Michael Gallup and James Washington’s absences, apparently he has failed to take the bull by the horns thus far). Even still, New England does have a bonafide receiver (In Tyler Boyd), even if his production has shrunk slightly with the additions of Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins to his position. However, beyond those two names, all New England possesses are Rashard Higgins, the serial hanger-on to a roster spot, Laquon Treadwell, and youngsters Shi Smith, Jalen Nailor, and T.J. Vasher. While the Boyd trade does help (And it came at the expense of Cameron Jordan), without more investment at that position, it’s going to be tough to reliably score points there. At tight end, the off-season move for Dawson Knox was a bold one (And one that didn’t pay dividends in the season opener, though it does serve to get $11 of cap off of New England’s roster). While Knox will now face more competition for targets with a now seemingly ready to rock Gabriel Davis in his offense, he should also be reaching the height of his powers as well. Defensively, things are less sure, with no starting off-ball linebackers in the mix, New England could struggle to produce points in the middle of his lineup. Khalil Mack missed more than half a season last year, is now over 30, and had his second-worst ever year on a points per game basis. He should be rejuvenated now as Joey Bosa’s bookend in LA, though it’s far from a certainty that he’ll return to his career peak, coming off of an injury at 31. Shaquil Barrett is the other major name of the position, and he has been a sack machine over the past three seasons. If both he and Mack meet their career benchmarks, then New England won’t hurt for not having any off-ball backers. Otherwise, he will be relying on only a threesome of EDGE defenders, including former defensive lineman D.J. Wonnum. Speaking of the DL, Chris made the boldest of bold moves in selecting rookie Adam Hutchinson in the first round of the 2022 CDFL Rookie Draft. Though the history of selecting a DL in the 1st Round is pretty grim, and often doesn’t match the price tag attached to acquiring the player, getting the best EDGE rusher in a class usually does pay off, and if Hutchinson becomes that, it may be well worth a late 1st Round investment (And it helps to replace the departed Jordan, at least in theory). In terms of compatriots to pair him with, the Patriots have only Justin Jones, who exploded into fantasy relevance last year, but is short on production prior to that (And who has also never finished a season), and Tanoh Kpassagnon, who may become a factor in his sixth year as a pro, but also whose play hasn’t convinced many fantasy players that it’s worth learning how to spell/pronounce his name/roster him. It’s likely a middling unit. At defensive back, the Pats lost Trevon Diggs in the Ertz/Knox trade, but also got back Xavien Howard. It’s a slight downgrade, but also, it’s already New England’s biggest position of strength, as it also includes Charvarius Ward, Rasul Douglas, and rookies (And likely future factors) Derek Stingley Jr., and Kair Elam. This is the biggest area of surplus from which he could likely trade to acquire some semblance of linebacking or receiver help.
X-factor: Wide receiver and linebacker. It’s clear that Chris has begun a transition with a different set of players. Whether or not that constitutes a rebuild will be up to the performances of those players. But, it’s certainly a reset. There are two fairly large holes/gaps that are keeping the Patriots from the top of the AFC/the league, and those are the two as listed above. Until and unless he can improve those, I think that this is year-1 of the rebuild, and that year-2 holds much more promise. While I have the Pats picked for 2nd in this division, there’s clearly a gulf in class, and I have New England missing out on the playoffs just slightly.
Projected division finish: 2nd
New York Jets (Travis)
Last year’s finish: 18th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: The New York Jets entered the 2021 season as reigning AFC Champions (Travis’ first), and ended the year in third place, with a losing record. How did a team on the upward swing for several years fall so far so quickly? Well, it turns out that his 2020 success was unsustainable (Namely in terms of age and contracts), and he needed to adapt going forward. To his credit, Travis took that note and started the teardown well before the deadline last year, maximizing his return. He realized that players like Adam Thielen, Zach Ertz, Aaron Donald, and Bobby Wagner—Each over 30 and on a 1-year deals of at least $6 (And three of those on $8+ deals), would not be producers for him down the line, and if he already wasn’t winning, there was no virtue in keeping them around. Sometimes, it’s just the end of the run, and that was certainly the case for the Jets with that group. Also, as good as those players were individually, they masked many holes on the roster. Some of those deficiencies included: a need for a second wide receiver/more depth at the position, the average age of the roster creeping closer to 30, and 11 of those players being in the last year of their deal (Particularly for the more expensive ones, that means losing them for free). In terms of the first complaint levied above, Travis may have found his second WR of the future in 22-year-old sophomore to be Terrace Marshall, who did not impress as a rookie, but also, suffered through some of the worst quarterback play in the league last year. Added to 23-year old Donovan Peoples-Jones, they make a salivating pair. For good measure, New York acquired James Washington in the offseason as well (Though he promptly became injured, and will miss at least a portion of the season on IR). As for the other names there, Tyquan Thornton, Mike Strachan, and Simi Fehoko all have their backers within the fantasy community, but none of them have proven to be a fantasy asset yet. In terms of the second matter, the average age of his roster is now hovering around 26. That, coupled with the main players that he kept: Kyzir White, Chase Edmonds, and Kenyan Drake, help his long-term viability, and could themselves become trade assets if it doesn’t go right this year. That burden may rest on third-year starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has looked more like a game manager through two years rather than the guy who generated #TankForTua memes, has disappointed. There have been rumblings each of the last two off seasons about him losing his job—and that should be even louder now that Miami’s backup is recent starter, Teddy Bridgewater. If Tua struggles early on, Miami may be willing to pivot to Bridgewater rather quickly. Running back, however, should carry the day, with all of Chase Edmonds, Kenyan Drake, and rookie James Cook. None of them are breakaway stars yet, but it’s good quality an depth at the present time, and that should help to propel him to several wins. The tight end position is pretty moribund though, with no starters at the position. Defensively, there is a lot of room to grow. Yes, Kyzir White broke out in a big way in 2021, but very few among the rest of the group of young veterans and a scant number of rookies, has a pathway to score more than a few points per game at present. Though things can certainly change, this unit is what puts New York firmly into the rebuilding territory, as it’s one of the bottom-5 defenses in the league, White’s contributions notwithstanding.
X-factor: Building it back. New York has already proven their mettle under Travis, winning a competitive division in 2020, and finishing with a 9-3 record. Very few GMs in league history can stake a claim to having a season like that. While, yes, it was a down year for division rival Buffalo (Sal), he won it on his own merits, and with his excellent cast of veterans—veterans who aged beyond their usefulness/ability to be extended, and the reset button was in need of being hit. So, for year-1 in that respect, Travis is off to a pretty good start. The defense is a long way from functional, and I expect that we will all seem him build that across this season and the next few. But for now, it’s nowhere near ready to compete. Even if he overachieves and leaps the Patriots, it would be hard to see a team with a unit this lacking in players with guaranteed playing time/snaps make any noise.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Thank you for reading this, the third in the series of Divisional Previews. I will publish the fourth installment tomorrow. Next up, it's the NFC East.