Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Sept 6, 2022 4:42:00 GMT -5
NFC WEST
2021 was no different than the previous six seasons, as Seattle claimed the NFC West crown for the seventh-consecutive time (A league record), once again with little resistance put up by the other three division teams. Arizona came the closest at 8-5, and looked to be making it a little more of a two-horse race over the next couple of years, until recently. The 49ers had aspirations of competition, but were nowhere near deep enough to withstand the injuries that his squad suffered. The Rams, however, were in year-1 of a rebuild, and seemingly willfully leaned into that. As with last year, I intended to write these previews in a series of easiest to pick to most difficult, but Tom began his teardown after I began writing the AFC North preview. Therefore, in light of those developments, this is now the easiest division to predict, as Cecil is a near certainty to repeat as division champ. And if by some infinitesimal chance, I, in effect, ‘broadcaster jinx’ myself in making this call preemptively, so be it. Once more, provided that Cecil doesn’t forget to set his lineup like he has in the playoffs on two occasions, and provided he doesn’t suffer a Josh Castle-esque spate of injuries, the Seattle Seahawks are the CDFL’s 2022 NFC West Champions. Apologies to the other three teams, but you’re so far away from competing with him that it would be malpractice not to state that, rather than pretending to put you on pins and needles about it. Now that that’s out of the way, let’s get to the previews. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Arizona Cardinals (Tom)
Last year’s finish: 14th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Another season, and another new Cardinals GM. When will it stop? Why? Why? Why? At the risk of turning into Nancy Kerrigan, it is worth mentioning that since Mett’s departure (I think only four short years but what now feels like a lifetime ago), the Cardinals have had the league’s highest turnover rate in terms of GMs—and based on the fact that one has yet to occupy the position for a full season, it’s certainly become a serial occurrence. So here’s to you, Tom! Let’s raise our beers (Or otherwise) and hope that you can break the trend. Cheers. That said, Tom has inspired some mixed reviews early. The good: Certainly in terms of activity, he’s blown every other ARI GM from the last half-decade out of the water. That’s a big indicator for me, as I think it’s the greatest predictor of success in this league. The less than good: He’s overseen the umpteenth tearing down of this franchise, and right when they were in prime position not only to nab a playoff spot, but potentially even make a deep run. The Cardinals really had that much talent. Wanting to make it your own is understandable (Coming from someone who’s been there), but I don’t think any serious observer could come away from the transactions that involved the outgoings of Zach Wilson, Marquise Brown, Isaiah Simmons, Fred Warner, Jordan Poyer, and Christian Wilkins as wins for the franchise, or at least that they returned top of the market (Or even fair market) value. But, fantasy sports are nothing if not fluid, and that remains to be seen. Nailing the picks that he received in the deals is crucial to the Cardinals getting back on track. For now, it appears the tank/rebuild is on once more in the desert. It would be unfair, however, to characterize the return in those deals as a complete loss. Daniel Jones still may be salvageable—something that new coach Brian Daboll spoke to when taking the job. Likewise, Kadarius Toney flashed on many, multiple occasions as a rookie (But is all over the map in terms of consistency and practice habits, apparently). Zach Ertz may seem like a strange fit, but he proved in Arizona last year that he still has a great deal left in the tank. If not for his contract, I’d imagine that Tom could move him for a fair return. Additionally, Tim Patrick has been an impact player for several years now, and when he returns next year, if will be to Russell Wilson throwing him balls, rather than ______ (Name any Broncos QB from the last half decade and the point is made). All in all, it’s hard to evaluate this team on a serious basis for this season. Tom has clearly and resolutely made the goal about future, and if you need further evidence to that fact, just look at the league-high 12 rookies that he rosters, and the seven 2023 draft picks currently in his arsenal. So, before you ready your knives to criticize his off-season decisions, keep in mind that his future lies entirely in those assets. Maybe he hits on a few (Or maybe more than a few) and turns them into cornerstones of his franchise. Or, maybe he hits on none of them and becomes the next Cardinals’ GM to bottom out. That’s the luck of the draw, and there’s a steep learning curve in this league, even for the initiated. Until next year though, there’s no justification for spending any more time on what is going to be—pretty transparently—a bottom third team.
X-factor: Hitting his shots. It was a ballsy move to come in and tear down, but sometimes it’s the right one. Each GM has the right to, and really should put their own fingerprints on their team. Tom slapped his hand down on the ink, and did so at an early juncture. Rightly or wrongly, he did what many of us do early on—though it’s always difficult to justify a full teardown for a playoff team at the onset.
Projected division finish: 4th
Los Angeles Rams (Trey)
Last year’s finish: 28th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Trey is officially in year three of his rebuild, and he has some real progress to show from it. For instance, later round picks of Khalil Herbert, and Kenneth Gainwell in the 2021 Draft have already shown some value, carving out roles for their teams in year one. Kylen Granson, and 2022 picks George Pickens and Kyle Hamilton are poised to do the same. Additionally, astute free agent adds Darnell Mooney (Who ranks among the best ever snatched off the FA market in this league), Cole Holcomb, and A.J. Terrell all have demonstrated the ability to be foundational pieces for this team. So then, LAR has the championship all wrapped up, right? Well, as Lee Corso so famously says, “Not so fast my friend.” First off, you’ll find this team’s main weakness right at the top: quarterback. What quarterback that you end up with is very much luck of the draw sometimes in this league, and in Trey’s case, he probably appropriately didn’t spend lavishly on his, lucking into a starter who will be the Browns’ signal caller for the first 10 games—but also, short of further complaints/reports (With physical evidence) against Deshaun Watson, there are $230 million reasons why he will no longer be the guy, which will also necessitate that Trey acquire another starter at that time. The book is probably out on Brissett by now, which is that he is a good backup, and that he doesn’t make many mistakes. But there’s a reason that he’s bounced around the league as a serially good backup rather than a surefire starter, and that’s because if you’re looking for big plays, deep throws, and a high touchdown percentage, he’s not your guy. And from a fantasy perspective, that probably puts him near the bottom of the league—though he’s also never played with position players this talented, or a line this good. Trey also has Taylor Heinicke in reserve, though it is an open question whether or not he will get the call over Carson Wentz with promising rookie Sam Howell also now in the fold. While he also has Kellen Mond (Claimed recently by the Browns—notable as they are the old Vikings staff), and Anthony McFarland (Who was practice-squadded by Pittsburgh at final cuts), depth remains an issue on that side of the ball. As a unit, it won’t win him many games, but it is worthwhile to mention that it’s one of the better units among non-contenders. Defensively, Trey may again have a strong unit. The defensive line is fairly strong, with the combo of Kenny Clark and Daron Payne (Though the only reserve is rookie Jordan Davis in a crowded Philly unit). Linebacker is probably where the biggest investment outside of quarterback is needed on this team, as, outside of Holcolmb, there are only Josh Uche, Matthew Adams, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Chris Rumph, and two rookies (David Ojabo and Nik Bonitto). At first glance, it’s a unit with one full-time player, several others trying to work their way into those roles (Or at least the lion’s share of snaps at their positions), and a career backup. The secondary is manned by Terrell, Mike Edwards, Kendall Fuller, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Elijah Molden, and the rookie Hamilton (Who has the most potential of anyone in the unit). It’s a middling unit for now, but one that can become one of the best in the league in a year’s time.
X-factor: LB, offensive depth, and time. While the Rams have improved, and that should be reflected in their record, they’re still at least one year away from serious contention (At least in this prognosticator’s eyes). Needing several impact players to pair with his existing ones, the Rams won’t be a real threat until that time—and until they get a long-term answer at quarterback.
Projected division finish: 3rd
San Francisco 49ers (Nate)
Last year’s finish: 30th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: Last year was a false step for the 49ers. Nate was gearing up in an attempt to make a division challenge against Cecil. Was it folly to go for it with the players that he had? Perhaps (Especially as the depth was not enough to weather the injuries that San Fran suffered, and therefore proved to be the case). But, he still retains almost all of what he went into battle with last year, with an extra year of seasoning. That could loom large for young players like Trevor Lawrence, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and K.J. Hamler. He also supplemented his team with what looks like an excellent rookie class (At least so far), in Atlanta wide receiver Drake London, presumed Washington lead back Brian Robinson (At least until his unfortunate shooting last week, which will sideline him for a portion of the season), training camp sensation (And in a paper thin Green Bay receiving corps) Romeo Doubs, and measurables god, Leo Chenal. Nate also made the move to add Julio Jones, who may still have some magic that Thomas Brady can resurrect, and David Njoku at the tight end spot. Add that to the existing players on offense (Chiefly, Lawrence, Samuel, and Marvin Jones), and you have an undeniably top-half of the league offense. There’s also far more depth than a year ago, at every position save QB (Though Lawrence has thus far in his football career, has been nothing if not durable). CEH, Robinson, and La’Mical Perine make a very good RB corps, and the WR corps is top-10, with Samuel, London, Hamler, Julio and Marvin Jones, and Doubs. Njoku even has a backup in the form of John Bates (Who closed the season with a bit of a flourish with Washington) tabbed for a bigger role in his second season, alongside the litany of aforementioned skill position players. Provided that he avoids the injury bug that bit him last year, he’d be making good progress from the outset. The defense, however, paints a much less rosy picture. Every position group is below average, though, at present, no player is older than 29, and only one player is older than 27. There is some potential, in the form of three rookies (Led by Chenal), and 2021 rookies Jaelan Phillips, and Patrick Surtain. But, potential doesn’t win championships, and it’s quite clear that San Francisco is not there on this side of the ball—particularly at linebacker, where it’s a bottom-5 unit. Even with a revamped and supercharged offense, the heart of this defense is going to take the Niners out of some games that they would otherwise be in.
X-factor: Defense (Specifically, linebacker). While the offense is trending up in a huge way, the defense has yet to come anywhere close to matching its counterpart’s specter. Nate needs more time to affect a more balanced and competitive roster on that side of the ball, particularly at linebacker. If he’s able to add a few more names into the middle of the defense, we could be talking about a playoff team within a year of finishing 3rd from last. That would be pretty impressive.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Seattle Seahawks (Cecil)
Last year’s finish: 3rd (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Last year I spoke about how long Cecil had been able to keep the core group of players that had led him to such success. That group included Patrick Mahomes, Chris Carson, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Mike Gesicki, Myles Garrett, Brian Burns, Devin White, Taylor Rapp, Derwin James, Will Dissly, O.J. Howard, Marquise Blair, and Jonathan Abram. One year on, more than half of those names are gone off of Seattle’s roster, representing the most upheaval to the league’s perpetual contender in at least half a decade. While I think it’s clear that it’s a temporary step back, it follows the script that Cecil perfected in this league: Dance with/make use of the players that brought you there—but when it’s time to move on, get out, recycle, and get a younger dance partner. That is reflected in the state of the Seahawks’ roster, including from an age standpoint, as Cecil jettisoned the football geriatrics, with no player now having entered their 31st year of life. However, a key core of Cecil draftees still remains in Mahomes, Taylor, Gibson (For now), Burns, White, Abram, Jamin Davis, and James, and that’s where the majority of the heavy lifting is going to take place on this roster. It’s worth noting, that despite this being probably the worst Seattle team on paper to start a season in about—well, a long damn time, it’s still a team that should moonwalk to a division title, and possibly into a long playoff run. But, it’s worth examining where those supposed deficiencies lie (And contextualizing how deficient they really make the league’s perennial best team—or if they’re just relative to other versions of this squad/being unfairly compared to them). Starting at quarterback, it’s really superfluous to say anything about Patrick Mahomes at this point, as it’s all likely been said before—but I’ll try. He’s been at the forefront of the revolution of the quarterback position, and despite his impressive achievements so far, he’s still somehow only 26. However, it is fair to say from a statistical standpoint that he’s never approached his record-setting sophomore season again, and, based on his receiving options (And that this is his first season without Tyreek Hill), I would venture it a safe bet that he will not return to those numbers for at least this season, and may even take a further step back statistically. Still, a watered down version of Mahomes is still a top-5 quarterback—just not a guaranteed #1 like it once was. At running back, Taylor has made himself the best runner in the league—one capable of propping up post-2017 Carson Wentz for 16 weeks even. He’s a fantastic weapon that will make sure that the Seahawks are in every game. When paired with Gibson, that benefit amplifies—though by at least midseason, it’s likely that Robinson, and not Gibson, is toting the football for the Washington Problematic Work Environments. Behind them are only rookies Isaiah Spiller and Ty Chandler, neither of whom currently have a pathway to snaps in their respective backfields in 2022. It’s therefore probably the weakest backfield that Seattle has had in 8-10 years (Hard to say that with fantasy’s #1 running back in the fold, but the depth just isn’t there). Wide receiver is filled with a lot of good-really good, but not elite fantasy performers (Unlike the 1-2 punch of Julio and Evans, which could legitimately finish 1-2 each week for a number of years). Cecil will have to rely that one or more of them will fulfill their draft pedigree, as outside of Jaelon Darden, every single member of his WR corps was drafted in the first two rounds of the draft. Mike Williams leads the way, and Christian Kirk follows close behind, representing the biggest piece of the pie in Jacksonville’s off-season spending spree. But it’s the names of DeVante Parker, and Treylon Burks that are the most interesting. How Parker adjusts to New England’s fairly docile passing attack (And whether or not he can gain his temporarily dominant form that he displayed back in 2019) is a legitimate question. The same is true of Burks, who is a huge and fast receiver out of the mold of a running back/receiver hybrid, but who has A. struggled with weight, drops, minor nicks and injuries, and poor route running during training camp. It seems like he’s just now starting to win with his physical talent, as recent reports had him ascending the depth chart in a moribund Titans receiving room. But, if he’s not at least a 2nd/possession receiver, or a dual #1 by the end of the year, it’ll be a huge disappointment for the team that traded away superstar A.J. Brown for the right to draft Burks. At tight end, the numbers are certainly down, but there’s a lot of talent still with Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett—though neither are top performers at the position. On defense, the line is short on numbers, but the pair of Brian Burns and Leonard Williams is a pretty fantastic one. It’s a top-10 combo that is in need of at least one deputy. Linebacker is still a huge strength for Seattle, with Devin White and Bobby Okereke leading the way. However, Cecil paid a bit of a price/suffered the consequences when picking a rookie a year ago with the selection of Jamin Davis. Penciled in as the starter at inside linebacker, and lauded as a star in the making by seemingly every media member, Davis was a pure rotation player for the Washington Historically Ignorant Names, and underperformed expectations. While things might be a bit sunnier this year, Coach Ron Rivera has not publicly said that Davis is due an uptick of more snaps. Behind him are Jabril Cox, Zach Baun, and Malcolm Rodriguez—each of whom figure to be bit part players this year, excluding injuries. Defensive back for the Seahawks, however, is once again among the strongest units in the league, behind all-world star (When he’s healthy) Derwin James, Abram, Jalen Thompson (Who came on last year to lead the Cardinals’ secondary in fantasy points), Taylor Rapp, and promising rookie Jaquan Brisker.
X-factor: Wide receiver and linebacker. Again, it feels silly to be saying this, but this is not your daddy’s Seattle Seahawks in this league. Cecil is rebuilding on the fly, and his track record for doing so speaks for itself. However, there are once more a lot of gambles—gambles that the wide receivers’ pedigrees will equal production, and that two and a half starting linebackers can get the job done in the meat of the defense. If his DBs remain healthy, he should be able to cover that hole with a strong coat of spackle and paint. However, if one or more of his LBs or DBs go down for any length of time, it’s going to half to come from the offense—an offense that is capable of putting up humongous totals, but also has a fair amount of question marks at receiver as well.
Projected division finish: 1st
Remember to watch out for the third of our divisional previews, which will explore the AFC East, and should drop sometime tomorrow. Thanks again guys.
2021 was no different than the previous six seasons, as Seattle claimed the NFC West crown for the seventh-consecutive time (A league record), once again with little resistance put up by the other three division teams. Arizona came the closest at 8-5, and looked to be making it a little more of a two-horse race over the next couple of years, until recently. The 49ers had aspirations of competition, but were nowhere near deep enough to withstand the injuries that his squad suffered. The Rams, however, were in year-1 of a rebuild, and seemingly willfully leaned into that. As with last year, I intended to write these previews in a series of easiest to pick to most difficult, but Tom began his teardown after I began writing the AFC North preview. Therefore, in light of those developments, this is now the easiest division to predict, as Cecil is a near certainty to repeat as division champ. And if by some infinitesimal chance, I, in effect, ‘broadcaster jinx’ myself in making this call preemptively, so be it. Once more, provided that Cecil doesn’t forget to set his lineup like he has in the playoffs on two occasions, and provided he doesn’t suffer a Josh Castle-esque spate of injuries, the Seattle Seahawks are the CDFL’s 2022 NFC West Champions. Apologies to the other three teams, but you’re so far away from competing with him that it would be malpractice not to state that, rather than pretending to put you on pins and needles about it. Now that that’s out of the way, let’s get to the previews. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Arizona Cardinals (Tom)
Last year’s finish: 14th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Another season, and another new Cardinals GM. When will it stop? Why? Why? Why? At the risk of turning into Nancy Kerrigan, it is worth mentioning that since Mett’s departure (I think only four short years but what now feels like a lifetime ago), the Cardinals have had the league’s highest turnover rate in terms of GMs—and based on the fact that one has yet to occupy the position for a full season, it’s certainly become a serial occurrence. So here’s to you, Tom! Let’s raise our beers (Or otherwise) and hope that you can break the trend. Cheers. That said, Tom has inspired some mixed reviews early. The good: Certainly in terms of activity, he’s blown every other ARI GM from the last half-decade out of the water. That’s a big indicator for me, as I think it’s the greatest predictor of success in this league. The less than good: He’s overseen the umpteenth tearing down of this franchise, and right when they were in prime position not only to nab a playoff spot, but potentially even make a deep run. The Cardinals really had that much talent. Wanting to make it your own is understandable (Coming from someone who’s been there), but I don’t think any serious observer could come away from the transactions that involved the outgoings of Zach Wilson, Marquise Brown, Isaiah Simmons, Fred Warner, Jordan Poyer, and Christian Wilkins as wins for the franchise, or at least that they returned top of the market (Or even fair market) value. But, fantasy sports are nothing if not fluid, and that remains to be seen. Nailing the picks that he received in the deals is crucial to the Cardinals getting back on track. For now, it appears the tank/rebuild is on once more in the desert. It would be unfair, however, to characterize the return in those deals as a complete loss. Daniel Jones still may be salvageable—something that new coach Brian Daboll spoke to when taking the job. Likewise, Kadarius Toney flashed on many, multiple occasions as a rookie (But is all over the map in terms of consistency and practice habits, apparently). Zach Ertz may seem like a strange fit, but he proved in Arizona last year that he still has a great deal left in the tank. If not for his contract, I’d imagine that Tom could move him for a fair return. Additionally, Tim Patrick has been an impact player for several years now, and when he returns next year, if will be to Russell Wilson throwing him balls, rather than ______ (Name any Broncos QB from the last half decade and the point is made). All in all, it’s hard to evaluate this team on a serious basis for this season. Tom has clearly and resolutely made the goal about future, and if you need further evidence to that fact, just look at the league-high 12 rookies that he rosters, and the seven 2023 draft picks currently in his arsenal. So, before you ready your knives to criticize his off-season decisions, keep in mind that his future lies entirely in those assets. Maybe he hits on a few (Or maybe more than a few) and turns them into cornerstones of his franchise. Or, maybe he hits on none of them and becomes the next Cardinals’ GM to bottom out. That’s the luck of the draw, and there’s a steep learning curve in this league, even for the initiated. Until next year though, there’s no justification for spending any more time on what is going to be—pretty transparently—a bottom third team.
X-factor: Hitting his shots. It was a ballsy move to come in and tear down, but sometimes it’s the right one. Each GM has the right to, and really should put their own fingerprints on their team. Tom slapped his hand down on the ink, and did so at an early juncture. Rightly or wrongly, he did what many of us do early on—though it’s always difficult to justify a full teardown for a playoff team at the onset.
Projected division finish: 4th
Los Angeles Rams (Trey)
Last year’s finish: 28th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Trey is officially in year three of his rebuild, and he has some real progress to show from it. For instance, later round picks of Khalil Herbert, and Kenneth Gainwell in the 2021 Draft have already shown some value, carving out roles for their teams in year one. Kylen Granson, and 2022 picks George Pickens and Kyle Hamilton are poised to do the same. Additionally, astute free agent adds Darnell Mooney (Who ranks among the best ever snatched off the FA market in this league), Cole Holcomb, and A.J. Terrell all have demonstrated the ability to be foundational pieces for this team. So then, LAR has the championship all wrapped up, right? Well, as Lee Corso so famously says, “Not so fast my friend.” First off, you’ll find this team’s main weakness right at the top: quarterback. What quarterback that you end up with is very much luck of the draw sometimes in this league, and in Trey’s case, he probably appropriately didn’t spend lavishly on his, lucking into a starter who will be the Browns’ signal caller for the first 10 games—but also, short of further complaints/reports (With physical evidence) against Deshaun Watson, there are $230 million reasons why he will no longer be the guy, which will also necessitate that Trey acquire another starter at that time. The book is probably out on Brissett by now, which is that he is a good backup, and that he doesn’t make many mistakes. But there’s a reason that he’s bounced around the league as a serially good backup rather than a surefire starter, and that’s because if you’re looking for big plays, deep throws, and a high touchdown percentage, he’s not your guy. And from a fantasy perspective, that probably puts him near the bottom of the league—though he’s also never played with position players this talented, or a line this good. Trey also has Taylor Heinicke in reserve, though it is an open question whether or not he will get the call over Carson Wentz with promising rookie Sam Howell also now in the fold. While he also has Kellen Mond (Claimed recently by the Browns—notable as they are the old Vikings staff), and Anthony McFarland (Who was practice-squadded by Pittsburgh at final cuts), depth remains an issue on that side of the ball. As a unit, it won’t win him many games, but it is worthwhile to mention that it’s one of the better units among non-contenders. Defensively, Trey may again have a strong unit. The defensive line is fairly strong, with the combo of Kenny Clark and Daron Payne (Though the only reserve is rookie Jordan Davis in a crowded Philly unit). Linebacker is probably where the biggest investment outside of quarterback is needed on this team, as, outside of Holcolmb, there are only Josh Uche, Matthew Adams, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Chris Rumph, and two rookies (David Ojabo and Nik Bonitto). At first glance, it’s a unit with one full-time player, several others trying to work their way into those roles (Or at least the lion’s share of snaps at their positions), and a career backup. The secondary is manned by Terrell, Mike Edwards, Kendall Fuller, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Elijah Molden, and the rookie Hamilton (Who has the most potential of anyone in the unit). It’s a middling unit for now, but one that can become one of the best in the league in a year’s time.
X-factor: LB, offensive depth, and time. While the Rams have improved, and that should be reflected in their record, they’re still at least one year away from serious contention (At least in this prognosticator’s eyes). Needing several impact players to pair with his existing ones, the Rams won’t be a real threat until that time—and until they get a long-term answer at quarterback.
Projected division finish: 3rd
San Francisco 49ers (Nate)
Last year’s finish: 30th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: Last year was a false step for the 49ers. Nate was gearing up in an attempt to make a division challenge against Cecil. Was it folly to go for it with the players that he had? Perhaps (Especially as the depth was not enough to weather the injuries that San Fran suffered, and therefore proved to be the case). But, he still retains almost all of what he went into battle with last year, with an extra year of seasoning. That could loom large for young players like Trevor Lawrence, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and K.J. Hamler. He also supplemented his team with what looks like an excellent rookie class (At least so far), in Atlanta wide receiver Drake London, presumed Washington lead back Brian Robinson (At least until his unfortunate shooting last week, which will sideline him for a portion of the season), training camp sensation (And in a paper thin Green Bay receiving corps) Romeo Doubs, and measurables god, Leo Chenal. Nate also made the move to add Julio Jones, who may still have some magic that Thomas Brady can resurrect, and David Njoku at the tight end spot. Add that to the existing players on offense (Chiefly, Lawrence, Samuel, and Marvin Jones), and you have an undeniably top-half of the league offense. There’s also far more depth than a year ago, at every position save QB (Though Lawrence has thus far in his football career, has been nothing if not durable). CEH, Robinson, and La’Mical Perine make a very good RB corps, and the WR corps is top-10, with Samuel, London, Hamler, Julio and Marvin Jones, and Doubs. Njoku even has a backup in the form of John Bates (Who closed the season with a bit of a flourish with Washington) tabbed for a bigger role in his second season, alongside the litany of aforementioned skill position players. Provided that he avoids the injury bug that bit him last year, he’d be making good progress from the outset. The defense, however, paints a much less rosy picture. Every position group is below average, though, at present, no player is older than 29, and only one player is older than 27. There is some potential, in the form of three rookies (Led by Chenal), and 2021 rookies Jaelan Phillips, and Patrick Surtain. But, potential doesn’t win championships, and it’s quite clear that San Francisco is not there on this side of the ball—particularly at linebacker, where it’s a bottom-5 unit. Even with a revamped and supercharged offense, the heart of this defense is going to take the Niners out of some games that they would otherwise be in.
X-factor: Defense (Specifically, linebacker). While the offense is trending up in a huge way, the defense has yet to come anywhere close to matching its counterpart’s specter. Nate needs more time to affect a more balanced and competitive roster on that side of the ball, particularly at linebacker. If he’s able to add a few more names into the middle of the defense, we could be talking about a playoff team within a year of finishing 3rd from last. That would be pretty impressive.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Seattle Seahawks (Cecil)
Last year’s finish: 3rd (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Last year I spoke about how long Cecil had been able to keep the core group of players that had led him to such success. That group included Patrick Mahomes, Chris Carson, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Mike Gesicki, Myles Garrett, Brian Burns, Devin White, Taylor Rapp, Derwin James, Will Dissly, O.J. Howard, Marquise Blair, and Jonathan Abram. One year on, more than half of those names are gone off of Seattle’s roster, representing the most upheaval to the league’s perpetual contender in at least half a decade. While I think it’s clear that it’s a temporary step back, it follows the script that Cecil perfected in this league: Dance with/make use of the players that brought you there—but when it’s time to move on, get out, recycle, and get a younger dance partner. That is reflected in the state of the Seahawks’ roster, including from an age standpoint, as Cecil jettisoned the football geriatrics, with no player now having entered their 31st year of life. However, a key core of Cecil draftees still remains in Mahomes, Taylor, Gibson (For now), Burns, White, Abram, Jamin Davis, and James, and that’s where the majority of the heavy lifting is going to take place on this roster. It’s worth noting, that despite this being probably the worst Seattle team on paper to start a season in about—well, a long damn time, it’s still a team that should moonwalk to a division title, and possibly into a long playoff run. But, it’s worth examining where those supposed deficiencies lie (And contextualizing how deficient they really make the league’s perennial best team—or if they’re just relative to other versions of this squad/being unfairly compared to them). Starting at quarterback, it’s really superfluous to say anything about Patrick Mahomes at this point, as it’s all likely been said before—but I’ll try. He’s been at the forefront of the revolution of the quarterback position, and despite his impressive achievements so far, he’s still somehow only 26. However, it is fair to say from a statistical standpoint that he’s never approached his record-setting sophomore season again, and, based on his receiving options (And that this is his first season without Tyreek Hill), I would venture it a safe bet that he will not return to those numbers for at least this season, and may even take a further step back statistically. Still, a watered down version of Mahomes is still a top-5 quarterback—just not a guaranteed #1 like it once was. At running back, Taylor has made himself the best runner in the league—one capable of propping up post-2017 Carson Wentz for 16 weeks even. He’s a fantastic weapon that will make sure that the Seahawks are in every game. When paired with Gibson, that benefit amplifies—though by at least midseason, it’s likely that Robinson, and not Gibson, is toting the football for the Washington Problematic Work Environments. Behind them are only rookies Isaiah Spiller and Ty Chandler, neither of whom currently have a pathway to snaps in their respective backfields in 2022. It’s therefore probably the weakest backfield that Seattle has had in 8-10 years (Hard to say that with fantasy’s #1 running back in the fold, but the depth just isn’t there). Wide receiver is filled with a lot of good-really good, but not elite fantasy performers (Unlike the 1-2 punch of Julio and Evans, which could legitimately finish 1-2 each week for a number of years). Cecil will have to rely that one or more of them will fulfill their draft pedigree, as outside of Jaelon Darden, every single member of his WR corps was drafted in the first two rounds of the draft. Mike Williams leads the way, and Christian Kirk follows close behind, representing the biggest piece of the pie in Jacksonville’s off-season spending spree. But it’s the names of DeVante Parker, and Treylon Burks that are the most interesting. How Parker adjusts to New England’s fairly docile passing attack (And whether or not he can gain his temporarily dominant form that he displayed back in 2019) is a legitimate question. The same is true of Burks, who is a huge and fast receiver out of the mold of a running back/receiver hybrid, but who has A. struggled with weight, drops, minor nicks and injuries, and poor route running during training camp. It seems like he’s just now starting to win with his physical talent, as recent reports had him ascending the depth chart in a moribund Titans receiving room. But, if he’s not at least a 2nd/possession receiver, or a dual #1 by the end of the year, it’ll be a huge disappointment for the team that traded away superstar A.J. Brown for the right to draft Burks. At tight end, the numbers are certainly down, but there’s a lot of talent still with Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett—though neither are top performers at the position. On defense, the line is short on numbers, but the pair of Brian Burns and Leonard Williams is a pretty fantastic one. It’s a top-10 combo that is in need of at least one deputy. Linebacker is still a huge strength for Seattle, with Devin White and Bobby Okereke leading the way. However, Cecil paid a bit of a price/suffered the consequences when picking a rookie a year ago with the selection of Jamin Davis. Penciled in as the starter at inside linebacker, and lauded as a star in the making by seemingly every media member, Davis was a pure rotation player for the Washington Historically Ignorant Names, and underperformed expectations. While things might be a bit sunnier this year, Coach Ron Rivera has not publicly said that Davis is due an uptick of more snaps. Behind him are Jabril Cox, Zach Baun, and Malcolm Rodriguez—each of whom figure to be bit part players this year, excluding injuries. Defensive back for the Seahawks, however, is once again among the strongest units in the league, behind all-world star (When he’s healthy) Derwin James, Abram, Jalen Thompson (Who came on last year to lead the Cardinals’ secondary in fantasy points), Taylor Rapp, and promising rookie Jaquan Brisker.
X-factor: Wide receiver and linebacker. Again, it feels silly to be saying this, but this is not your daddy’s Seattle Seahawks in this league. Cecil is rebuilding on the fly, and his track record for doing so speaks for itself. However, there are once more a lot of gambles—gambles that the wide receivers’ pedigrees will equal production, and that two and a half starting linebackers can get the job done in the meat of the defense. If his DBs remain healthy, he should be able to cover that hole with a strong coat of spackle and paint. However, if one or more of his LBs or DBs go down for any length of time, it’s going to half to come from the offense—an offense that is capable of putting up humongous totals, but also has a fair amount of question marks at receiver as well.
Projected division finish: 1st
Remember to watch out for the third of our divisional previews, which will explore the AFC East, and should drop sometime tomorrow. Thanks again guys.