AFC North
Aug 5, 2022 7:01:50 GMT -5
Carolina Panthers (Justin) and Dallas Cowboys (Aaron) like this
Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Aug 5, 2022 7:01:50 GMT -5
Welcome to the 2022 Divisional Previews. For the ninth season running, I will be handling them—this time from a different continent. These previews take a lot of time, energy, and research to produce, but also, I enjoy doing them immensely, and couldn’t imagine going into a season without them. These are intended to be fun, so, enjoy them. If my observations offend you, good—use that. Prove me wrong. I am wrong about a team in these previews probably about half of the time. So, if I don’t like your team (Based on my empirical research and historic precedent) as much as you do, you’re a coin’s flip away from success (Or if I do like your team, failure).
AFC NORTH
In 2021, the AFC North produced a league champion (A first-time winner in the Cincinnati Bengals), ending a drought of seven seasons for the division (Garrett, 2014). While CIN was the only elite team in the division, it was clearly competitive, with all of the other three teams below the Bengals finishing within a game of each other (And within a game of .500). In fact, Chris’ dominance over the division in recent years has been diminished (Even in a championship-winning year) by his inability to make it through divisional play unscathed (Last year, Kevin got the better of him for the second year in a row, and Goose also nearly pulled off the feat as well, going down by an infinitesimal .02 points, in one of the closest results in league history). Also, while Garrett was far from his peak form, his Steelers did return to the playoffs after a two-year absence, and things continue to trend up for him, in what is now the third year of his rebuild. So, what’s the outlook for the division this year? Well, it sure looks like three teams on the come up, with Chris overspending to hold on for one final year with this group. Yes, flags fly forever, but what of his title defense? Will this be the year that Garrett wrangles back control of the division? Can Goose’s young group—With only one player older than 30 years old—make the climb up the division standings? Can the elite individual performers on Kevin’s team take him to the next level—Contender—rather than the occasional division spoiler, and playoff participant? Let me know what you think about my projections, and post your own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Baltimore Ravens (Goose)
Last year’s finish: 21st (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: After a dropoff to 3-9 in 2020, Goose recovered to 6-7 in 2021, effectively sandwiching a bad year between three seasons of being a game within .500 each time. While the North was competitive in 2021 (With three teams finishing within a game of one another—and Baltimore being .02 points from beating Cincinnati, climbing to 7-6, and clinching a playoff berth in the process), it projects to be even more so in 2022, and Baltimore is very much a factor in that development. For one, losing J.K. Dobbins on the precipice of what was likely his breakout year last season was a backbreaker. Goose had paired him with rookie superstar Javonte Williams, and was therefore set to be one of the limited number of teams with two starting quality running backs. With both backs healthy, the Ravens would have absolutely been one of the top 6-7 teams in the AFC a year ago, given how the rest of the team performed, and it definitely would have made the difference in BAL being a playoff team, as evidenced above. Back into the fold are strong contributors all over the offense, in Williams, Dobbins, Dallas Goedert, and maybe even rookie wide receiver Christian Watson, as well as key off-season addition Jordyn Brooks on the defensive side of the ball. However, there are some glaring holes that Goose will need to address as well: Namely, quarterback (As at present, provided that Sam Darnold does not win the Panthers’ starting job over Baker Mayfield, Baltimore does not possess a starter). Running back is set, of course, but there is some cause for concern at wide receiver. Even with the addition of Watson, who projects to be peppered with targets in an offense that has been immunized against stockpiling talent at the receiver position, he is still a rookie, and an unknown quantity. Behind him is the unproven tandem of Josh Palmer (Star of innumerable 2021 and 2022 Fantasy off-season puff pieces—but in a crowded receiving room), Devin Duvernay, a supremely talented gadget player (Or at least how Baltimore has used him to this juncture) who is being shoehorned into a starting receiving role by virtue of their trade of Marquise Brown, in an offense where Mark Andrews dominates targets, the recently signed Chester Rogers—who projects to play at least some role in a less anemic Houston offense, the veteran of 0 NFL snaps through three years, Jalen Hurd, and potentially Erik Ezukanma—at best the Dolphins’ seventh receiving option at the moment. While Goedert should man the tight end position well into the top-10 territory, it will be interesting to see how his deputies (Taysom Hill and Adam Trautman) do in an offense under a brand new head coach for the first time in their respective careers in 2022—and for Hill, his first time exclusively (At least we’ve been told) at the position of tight end—a position at which he’s only ever recorded a game-high of three receptions (Once). Defensively, one big move for Brooks does not make an entire defense, and Brooks by himself doesn’t elevate the unit into the league’s top half—though, also, it has a pretty high floor, and should finish within the top-20. The unit is full of middle-tier defenders, who are downgraded by a function of their positionality (Linebackers being used as EDGE, and defensive lineman doing the same). The line is solid, with Jadaveon Clowney and Jerry Tillery forming an effective pair, but depth is lacking, even if K’Lavon Chaisson is designated as a DL again (As he’s yet to be any kind of factor in Jacksonville, and now finds himself in a real fight for any playing time). Behind Brooks, linebacker is uncertain, with players like Haason Reddick and Tyus Bowser coming off successful years, and Azeez Ojulari having a rather impressive rookie campaign, but once more, relying on sacks to make or break at their position. Certainly, it would help to have either more depth, or another big-time player to pair with Brooks there. Defensive back contains only three names—All corners—in Taron Johnson, Desmond King, and Rock Ya-Sin. If they repeat their 2021 outputs, this unit will simply be average to below average, but it won’t itself tarnish the Ravens’ defense. Still, more reinforcements are needed.
X-factor: Quarterback/Wide receiver/Defense. This prediction presents an interesting dilemma, as Baltimore still has several holes—namely at quarterback (Again, if Darnold is not the guy) and the top end/quality depth of the wide receiver position, and on defense. Otherwise, the Ravens are clearly on par with about every other non-division leader playoff contender in the AFC—maybe even a touch better than most. That said, this already feels like the best Baltimore team in at least 5 years, and perhaps more. If he can shore up those issues with some further investment, we could ultimately be talking about a division champion in the next 2-3 seasons.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Cincinnati Bengals (Chris)
Last year’s finish: 1st (Division: 1st)
Outlook: The 2021 playoffs were weird—as playoffs often are. Chris was able to take advantage of this weirdness with no better than his third, maybe even fourth-best team, and win it all, over a GM whose activity/success has often been hampered by being occupied in overseas ports of call, to take the trophy (Okay, there is no trophy, as a seeming majority of us indicated that an additional $3 a year was too much to pay for eternal glory in physical form). Nevertheless, a win is a win, and so Chris begins his title defense with a team that is very much the same as the one that brought home the hardware (Again, metaphorical hardware). Sometimes that can be a good thing, and sometimes it is not. With Baker Mayfield returning at quarterback, who is to say which is the case (Until the regular season begins)? In his four seasons in the league, Mayfield has twice been a top-10 passer according to PFF, but also twice a bottom-5 passer. Last year, was unfortunately the latter. Although his early season work was roughly on track to compare to his 2020 renaissance (After a dismal 2019 as a follow-up to his record-breaking rookie year), he sustained two horrendous injuries (As seeing your quarterback scream and writhe in the fetal position, while the player who injured him shouts/waves trainers onto the field will always make you feel) which arguably played at least some part in his regression back to a bottom bin starter. After an off-season of much drama (Not the least of which was Cleveland claiming that they felt his playing through injury didn’t affect his play, that they wanted a “professional” at the position, then spending lavishly, and rather recklessly on a player that had been credibly accused of sexual assault over 20 times—and who would have a further 20+ allegations levied against him post-signing, which they Browns either knew and didn’t care about, or didn’t know, and lied about knowing about—a decision made irrespective of how long they might be without him with still pending league discipline, and a legal process to play out—and leaking reports that Mayfield had lost the locker room last year—reports that have since been publicly disputed by some members of said locker room, including several all-pros, in running back Nick Chubb, and guard Wyatt Teller), and self-inflicted torpedoing of trade value by his own franchise, Mayfield was finally given his walking papers to the Carolina Panthers. The good? Well, fresh start, and maybe even better position player talent. The bad? His offensive line/protection takes a serious downgrade, and scheme-wise, while they are trying to adjust for that, I’m not entirely sure that it’s the best fit for a player like Mayfield (They want him to get the ball out quick, and yet, his play style relies on him breaking down the defense over a multiple seconds, scramble around, and find whoever comes open). For whatever may come to bear there, Chris also added Geno Smith as a free agent this off-season, as both an insurance policy on the seemingly never-ending will they or won’t they Cleveland trade drama, and also, because he quite capably replaced Russell Wilson in several starts last year, and has one of the very best skill position situations in the entire league. Oh, and Chris did a thing during the draft where he gave up a future 1st to become the first manager in league history to draft a QB who fell to the fifth round of the draft, in Sam Howell, despite receiving a first-round grade from the NFL Draft Advisory Committee. Perhaps more concerning is the fact that Howell has never eaten any protein other than chicken, so, clearly he’s a psychopath. At running back, Chris quite surprisingly traded away Christian McCaffrey (Or whatever husk of his body remains) for an $8/4y 6th round rookie runner, who turned in quite a season, but also missed several games with injuries, and is in Kyle Shanahan’s funhouse version of what backfields should look like. In the end, it won him a championship, but also, it caused him to finally part with the player who just three short seasons ago posted the most dominant fantasy running back season in the history of fantasy football, and still somehow just turned 26 years old. That’s quite a price for a player whom CIN barely lost a Week 2 bid on ($8/4y for TEN to $7/4y for CIN), and could have had essentially for free. The good news: CIN used the first-round pick that he got back in that deal, and a 2023 2nd Rounder (Effectively two 2nds, as he gave one up in the original CMC trade) to upgrade from Mitchell to Dalvin Cook, and net the services of handcuff Alexander Mattison. In terms of a pivot, McCaffrey to Cook and Mattison for two 2nds isn’t all that bad. The Bengals also recently acquired the rights to Chuba Hubbard, the handcuff to that same shell of a human being, McCaffrey (I kid…sort of), who produced some pretty impressive rookie fantasy stats—at the expense of efficiency numbers (But again, have you seen their former QB/OL situation?). Keep in mind, that Cincy still employs the services of Melvin Gordon, and you have one of the very best running back rooms in the league. At wideout, after the season-ending ACL injury to Tim Patrick, it’s a bit more complicated. Yes, you have fantasy WR1 Cooper Kupp, who came within just a few points of breaking Megatron’s all-time mark a year ago, but behind him are only Brandin Cooks—a very good, top-25 option who managed to keep his fantasy value in a disasterpiece Houston offense last year, and the recently acquired Randall Cobb, who is somehow still only 31 years old, but figures to play a leading role in the Packers’ offense, after the Green Bay front office decided it was against their religion to draft receivers in the high rounds for well over half of a decade. At tight end, Cincinnati was once more the beneficiary of a #1 at their position performance, this time in Mark Andrews. With Andrews hitting his prime, and with Baltimore jettisoning pretty much every other established receiving option, I see no logical reason that this will change in 2022. As a backup option, Chris recently signed rookie James Mitchell, who was considered one of college football’s top-5 tight ends entering the 2021 season, but who himself had an early season knee injury, and seemingly everyone forgot about him. He’ll try to carve out a role as a 2nd TE in a potentially functional or better Detroit offense. Defensively, it’s more of the same for the Bengals, who finished both 2019 and 2020 as the best defense in the league, and last year as the third-ranked unit—though 200+ points off the pace. Much of that was likely due to Blake Martinez’s early season-ending injury, paired with Zach Cunningham spending the year in the Texans’ on-again, off-again dog house, despite clearly being their defense’s most capable defender—a fact he proved once he was snagged by Tennessee, where he promptly regained his dominant form with playing time to end the season with a flourish. He’s once again locked into a top-2 role with fellow Bengals teammate David Long, who proved Chris’ speculative add right, averaging 12 PPG before going down with a phantom knee injury that lasted nearly half a season, with no updates being given from head coach Mike Vrabel. Add in Lavonte David’s 12 PPG, and rookie 99.98th percentile RAS scorer Chad Muma to that mix, and it’s quite possible that the Bengals have the best linebacking corps in the league once more. The defensive line is a top-10 unit, with yet another #1 at his position, Aaron Donald. Next to him, the Bengals plan to run it back with Emmanuel Ogbah, who once again posted 9 sacks a year ago, and was top-25 at the position. Behind those two is only Carlos Dunlap, who was a cut candidate when Chris acquired him a year ago—and then went on an improbable, all-time tear, solidifying his status for the 2023 squad (And now with a team that both wants to win, and has a clear need for his services), and proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that he has plenty left in the tank. Rounding out the defense, Cincinnati’s defensive backfield includes Budda Baker—who was good, but just a notch below his usually spectacular self in 2021, interception king JC Jackson (Or prince, I suppose, as he finished second in that respect, with 8, to Trevon Diggs’ 11 in 2021), Erik Harris (Who was in the process of posting a career-best year in Atlanta before succumbed to injury late in the year), and youngster Marcus Epps, who finds himself in a race for a starting spot in Philadelphia’s secondary with veteran Jaquiski Tartt, whose play fell off a cliff a year ago, and was the reason that he went unsigned deep into the off-season. While Tartt probably has the leg up for the position on that basis alone, Epps was a top-20 player at his position each of the last two years according to PFF—a full 20 points clear of Tartt’s grade, which has declined each of the last four years.
X-factor: Health and WR. If it feels like a reprise from last year, it’s because it is. Strangely, despite the fact that the Bengals won it all last year, they lost both their top offensive and defensive players early in the year, and still managed to do so. If not the most difficult path to a championship in history, the job that Chris did in rolling with the blows (And there were quite a few big ones), especially while spending two months—including the whole fantasy playoffs—overseas, is commendable. Already suffering a major injury in camp, and with less depth than previous years at all but one position, it’s key that Chris gets some semblance of health from this group (Particularly at the WR position). Otherwise, he can kiss his shot at a Philly-style repeat bon voyage.
Projected division finish: 1st
Cleveland Browns (Kevin)
Last year’s finish: 19th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Mired in mediocrity, Kevin’s Browns have rarely been bottom dwellers, but have also struggled to break into the top-half of the league’s teams on more than one or two occasions. 2021 was not an exception to that rule, as Cleveland finished 6-7, straight-up beating the league champion Bengals by 20 points, to deny them the AFC’s #1 seed—but also, by virtue of a head-to-head loss to Baltimore, finished at the bottom of the AFC North. While a few names have changed, Kevin is basically bringing back a very similar squad to the 2021 version. It all starts with Kyler Murray, who is one of the league’s top young quarterbacks, as well as one of the top dual-threat options, irrespective of if he’s been studying tape. He figures to be one of the best QBs in the league again, as long as the Cardinals’ late-season collapse wasn’t a harbinger of what’s to come. Running back, just like in 2021, and in many previous iterations, is Kevin’s biggest problem position. Currently, the Browns sport a total of ZERO healthy or rostered players at the position, and a recipe for success that does not often make. Frankly, it is critical that he brings in at least one back (If not more) that gets significant playing time, if he wants to have any chance of contention this year. Wide receiver is actually a bit of a strength, comparatively, for Kevin, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and A.J. Green holding down the starting roles—but beyond those two, it’s all about things falling the right way. For instance, absent his comments about vaccines, disregard for his own personal health, and that of his teammates, Cole Beasley would likely be employed right now, despite his falling off a cliff year that was his age-32 season. Many players refused vaccines and flouted league protocols to prevent the spread of COVID-19, but the fact that Beasley so vociferously, and publicly fought these protections (And his teammates—particularly their star/No. 1 receiver), and made himself the center of attention on the anti-mask/anti-vaccine front, probably cost him the rest of his football career. It’s hard to be the biggest distraction on a team, and simultaneously be the fourth receiver. It would be shocking to see him signed to anything more than a camp, or prove it deal. Other members of the Cleveland wide receiving corps are Tyler Johnson (Who is long on talent, but buried on the Buccaneers’ depth chart), and Collin Johnson, who is good at being tall. Tight end offers two potentially palatable options, in Dan Arnold, who became one of the few players that benefitted from Urban Meyer’s time at the helm in Jacksonville (And probably one of the few players or coaches that the now deposed head man didn’t either verbally or physically abuse), and Kyle Rudolph, who has slowed precipitously in recent years (Pun not intended, but accepted), but became the Giants’ most reliable/preferred TE target down the stretch last year, and was acceptable in that role. He now finds himself in a potentially cushy pitfall situation, whereby he may be expected to be the key player in replacing Rob Gronkowski’s production at tight end in Tampa Bay. Either he or Arnold beating out Rudolph’s former compatriot/competition in New York, having a good year would be a huge plus for the Browns. Defensively, this unit is all over the map. Dalvin Tomlinson, and solid 2021 rookie contributor Kwitty Paye form a solid if unspectacular defensive line. It’s also possible that they’ll be backed up by Uchenna Nwosu, depending on his positionality in Seattle. At linebacker, T.J. Watt leads the way after an all-time season that saw him tie the single-season sack record (22.5). Anytime an outside linebacker has that kind of production, he makes himself relevant alongside the off-ball, and inside linebackers at the position—sometimes even placing them at the very top end of the position, as in Watt’s case. Behind him is second-year breakout candidate, Zaven Collins, whose spot in Arizona was previously blocked by Jordan Hicks (Who is no longer in town). Collins should therefore handle the bulk of his vacant snaps. Alongside those two are the ageless two-down wonder, Josh Bynes, who still puts up decent numbers in limited snaps, and afterthoughts (At this point of their careers), Dont’a Hightower, Alex Ogletree, and Neville Hewitt. In the secondary, slot corner Troy Hill, Jaire Alexander, and Michaels Davis and Hughes man the position. These players will at least score points, so it’s not the worst DB room in the league, but it’s far from the best.
X-factor: Running back. Looking back over the league annals, the number of teams that have made the playoffs without a significant contributor at running back is 0. It is therefore incumbent upon him to either acquire one, or prove everyone wrong, and become the first team in league history to do so.
Projected division finish: 4th
Pittsburgh Steelers (Garrett)
Last year’s finish: 15th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: As mentioned above, last year was the first year in the re-realization of the Steelers under Garrett. Much like Chris will face in coming years, Garrett’s desire to run things back, contend, and elongate his championship window came back to bite him in 2019, and necessitated a rebuild. But well into that rebuild he is, and this group, with a mix of youth and experience, is undoubtedly his best since 2018 (And potentially even before then, as that team overachieved relative to its points production). It all starts with the GOAT, Tom Brady, at the quarterback position. Maybe you’ve heard of him? Let’s move along then, as until he shows otherwise, he’s ageless, and as sure a fantasy commodity in the high-to-middle tier as they come. Behind him is Drew Lock, who the Seahawks at least pretended to covet for a minute, before turning around and bringing Geno Smith back. If he wins the job, Garrett can expect some nominal compensation for him. At running back, last year’s premier rookie running back, Najee Harris returns after a superlative fantasy year. However, he was doomed by a Steelers line that forced him to run directly into brick walls all season long—and that takes a toll, I don’t care who you are (Up to and including 250 lb. tailbacks). Additionally, the Steelers leaned on their rookie so heavily (He racked up 374 touches—and while that’s not over the dreaded 400, the fact that he flirted with that number as a rookie is a potentially ominous sign of how the Steelers plan to use him every year that he can keep it up), you do have to wonder about his durability/ability to remain effective (As a reminder of how perilous handling that many touches is, just look at the history of runners who have received 400 touches, and their subsequent seasons). That said, as long as he’s healthy, and being force-fed touches, he’s the best of his kind among the big-backs, given his ability to play a major role in the passing game as well. Behind him, Zach Moss is the only other runner on the roster. To say he’s had a tumultuous early career is an understatement. In a weekly tug of war with Devin Singletary in early 2020, he fumbled away several early chances, and has oscillated between effective runner/receiver, to Sean McDermott’s dog house, to weekly inactive, to losing work to a free agent signing off the street. That up and down is too tough to follow, and it’s hard to imagine he’ll break free from that fate—especially when he already has one of the most run-happy quarterbacks in football—in 2022, no matter how ardently his coaches suggest that he’ll have a role, as they have so far during training camp. Receiver is a clear strength for Garrett, though there’s obviously a big damper for 2022, as Calvin Ridley was suspended for the year for betting less than he makes in an hour on himself. In one of the most arcane and needing of nuance rules on the book, you cannot bet on yourself without serving a yearlong suspension, but you can credibly be accused of domestic violence or sexual assault, and find yourself only missing a handful of games. He should inject some serious fuel into this engine next year, but will be burning a hole in Garrett’s pocket (Especially if he’s a serious contender) as he collects dust in 2022. Without him, it’s still a strong unit, with early bloomer Tee Higgins being pelted with Joe Burrow throws, JuJu Smith-Schuster figuring to be among (Or maybe even the) leader(s) in the Kansas City receiving corps, Amon-Ra St. Brown in an overhauled Detroit offense—though some of that comes at his expense, with the additions of arguably two more talented receivers in Jameson Williams, and DJ Chark, Russell Gage—who should be the major beneficiary of Ridley’s season away, and Tutu Atwell (Read in a Mike Tyson voice for a double/conclusory meaning). Returning at the tight end position are Tyler Higbee, who should continue to serve as a fringe-top-tier-to-middle-tier tight end, and Tommy Tremble, who has many football minds impressed with his athleticism, and decent rookie campaign. Garrett’s additions this offseason were focused on the defensive side of the ball (Which consist of Arik Armstead, Marcus Williams, and Quay Walker) and it’s easy to see why. Clearly the weaker of the two sides of the ball for the Steelers, this unit is one on the rise, but also one that has seen the stars of some of its recent picks, fade. Nowhere is that more clear than with Malik Harrison, who was anticipated to start in short order, and has rather been relegated to the bench duties. In addition to him, the careers of 2021 rookies Chazz Surratt, and Trevon Moehrig have yet to take off—though Moehrig could easily make this jump this year. Where the defense is really strong is its potential. Alongside of the previously mentioned names are 2021 impact rookie Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, the young, dominant defensive lineman Jeffrey Simmons, the finally fantasy-relevant Nasir Adderly, and the potential of players like the Walkers Mykal and Clay. Also present are Larry Ogunjobi, who had one of the best seasons of any DL in fantasy a year ago, along with long-time holdover Brandon Graham, fresh off an injury-shortened 2021 (And a slight yearly age regression, at 34). If he can return to form, this is undoubtedly in the conversation with Miami as the best defensive line in the league. Jon Bostic is also on the roster, but at present, is a free agent. The improvements are clear, and this should be right on the edge of a top-10 unit because of them.
X-factor: Health and continued growth. There’s not much more than Garrett could have done to play his cards more right throughout this process, and as a result, Pittsburgh is back. Expect a team that will be in every game, and could make a deep playoff push. They’re tantalizingly close to becoming a dynasty once more.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Thank you for reading this, the first in the series of Divisional Previews. I will publish the second installment this weekend, this time looking at the NFC West.
AFC NORTH
In 2021, the AFC North produced a league champion (A first-time winner in the Cincinnati Bengals), ending a drought of seven seasons for the division (Garrett, 2014). While CIN was the only elite team in the division, it was clearly competitive, with all of the other three teams below the Bengals finishing within a game of each other (And within a game of .500). In fact, Chris’ dominance over the division in recent years has been diminished (Even in a championship-winning year) by his inability to make it through divisional play unscathed (Last year, Kevin got the better of him for the second year in a row, and Goose also nearly pulled off the feat as well, going down by an infinitesimal .02 points, in one of the closest results in league history). Also, while Garrett was far from his peak form, his Steelers did return to the playoffs after a two-year absence, and things continue to trend up for him, in what is now the third year of his rebuild. So, what’s the outlook for the division this year? Well, it sure looks like three teams on the come up, with Chris overspending to hold on for one final year with this group. Yes, flags fly forever, but what of his title defense? Will this be the year that Garrett wrangles back control of the division? Can Goose’s young group—With only one player older than 30 years old—make the climb up the division standings? Can the elite individual performers on Kevin’s team take him to the next level—Contender—rather than the occasional division spoiler, and playoff participant? Let me know what you think about my projections, and post your own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Baltimore Ravens (Goose)
Last year’s finish: 21st (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: After a dropoff to 3-9 in 2020, Goose recovered to 6-7 in 2021, effectively sandwiching a bad year between three seasons of being a game within .500 each time. While the North was competitive in 2021 (With three teams finishing within a game of one another—and Baltimore being .02 points from beating Cincinnati, climbing to 7-6, and clinching a playoff berth in the process), it projects to be even more so in 2022, and Baltimore is very much a factor in that development. For one, losing J.K. Dobbins on the precipice of what was likely his breakout year last season was a backbreaker. Goose had paired him with rookie superstar Javonte Williams, and was therefore set to be one of the limited number of teams with two starting quality running backs. With both backs healthy, the Ravens would have absolutely been one of the top 6-7 teams in the AFC a year ago, given how the rest of the team performed, and it definitely would have made the difference in BAL being a playoff team, as evidenced above. Back into the fold are strong contributors all over the offense, in Williams, Dobbins, Dallas Goedert, and maybe even rookie wide receiver Christian Watson, as well as key off-season addition Jordyn Brooks on the defensive side of the ball. However, there are some glaring holes that Goose will need to address as well: Namely, quarterback (As at present, provided that Sam Darnold does not win the Panthers’ starting job over Baker Mayfield, Baltimore does not possess a starter). Running back is set, of course, but there is some cause for concern at wide receiver. Even with the addition of Watson, who projects to be peppered with targets in an offense that has been immunized against stockpiling talent at the receiver position, he is still a rookie, and an unknown quantity. Behind him is the unproven tandem of Josh Palmer (Star of innumerable 2021 and 2022 Fantasy off-season puff pieces—but in a crowded receiving room), Devin Duvernay, a supremely talented gadget player (Or at least how Baltimore has used him to this juncture) who is being shoehorned into a starting receiving role by virtue of their trade of Marquise Brown, in an offense where Mark Andrews dominates targets, the recently signed Chester Rogers—who projects to play at least some role in a less anemic Houston offense, the veteran of 0 NFL snaps through three years, Jalen Hurd, and potentially Erik Ezukanma—at best the Dolphins’ seventh receiving option at the moment. While Goedert should man the tight end position well into the top-10 territory, it will be interesting to see how his deputies (Taysom Hill and Adam Trautman) do in an offense under a brand new head coach for the first time in their respective careers in 2022—and for Hill, his first time exclusively (At least we’ve been told) at the position of tight end—a position at which he’s only ever recorded a game-high of three receptions (Once). Defensively, one big move for Brooks does not make an entire defense, and Brooks by himself doesn’t elevate the unit into the league’s top half—though, also, it has a pretty high floor, and should finish within the top-20. The unit is full of middle-tier defenders, who are downgraded by a function of their positionality (Linebackers being used as EDGE, and defensive lineman doing the same). The line is solid, with Jadaveon Clowney and Jerry Tillery forming an effective pair, but depth is lacking, even if K’Lavon Chaisson is designated as a DL again (As he’s yet to be any kind of factor in Jacksonville, and now finds himself in a real fight for any playing time). Behind Brooks, linebacker is uncertain, with players like Haason Reddick and Tyus Bowser coming off successful years, and Azeez Ojulari having a rather impressive rookie campaign, but once more, relying on sacks to make or break at their position. Certainly, it would help to have either more depth, or another big-time player to pair with Brooks there. Defensive back contains only three names—All corners—in Taron Johnson, Desmond King, and Rock Ya-Sin. If they repeat their 2021 outputs, this unit will simply be average to below average, but it won’t itself tarnish the Ravens’ defense. Still, more reinforcements are needed.
X-factor: Quarterback/Wide receiver/Defense. This prediction presents an interesting dilemma, as Baltimore still has several holes—namely at quarterback (Again, if Darnold is not the guy) and the top end/quality depth of the wide receiver position, and on defense. Otherwise, the Ravens are clearly on par with about every other non-division leader playoff contender in the AFC—maybe even a touch better than most. That said, this already feels like the best Baltimore team in at least 5 years, and perhaps more. If he can shore up those issues with some further investment, we could ultimately be talking about a division champion in the next 2-3 seasons.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Cincinnati Bengals (Chris)
Last year’s finish: 1st (Division: 1st)
Outlook: The 2021 playoffs were weird—as playoffs often are. Chris was able to take advantage of this weirdness with no better than his third, maybe even fourth-best team, and win it all, over a GM whose activity/success has often been hampered by being occupied in overseas ports of call, to take the trophy (Okay, there is no trophy, as a seeming majority of us indicated that an additional $3 a year was too much to pay for eternal glory in physical form). Nevertheless, a win is a win, and so Chris begins his title defense with a team that is very much the same as the one that brought home the hardware (Again, metaphorical hardware). Sometimes that can be a good thing, and sometimes it is not. With Baker Mayfield returning at quarterback, who is to say which is the case (Until the regular season begins)? In his four seasons in the league, Mayfield has twice been a top-10 passer according to PFF, but also twice a bottom-5 passer. Last year, was unfortunately the latter. Although his early season work was roughly on track to compare to his 2020 renaissance (After a dismal 2019 as a follow-up to his record-breaking rookie year), he sustained two horrendous injuries (As seeing your quarterback scream and writhe in the fetal position, while the player who injured him shouts/waves trainers onto the field will always make you feel) which arguably played at least some part in his regression back to a bottom bin starter. After an off-season of much drama (Not the least of which was Cleveland claiming that they felt his playing through injury didn’t affect his play, that they wanted a “professional” at the position, then spending lavishly, and rather recklessly on a player that had been credibly accused of sexual assault over 20 times—and who would have a further 20+ allegations levied against him post-signing, which they Browns either knew and didn’t care about, or didn’t know, and lied about knowing about—a decision made irrespective of how long they might be without him with still pending league discipline, and a legal process to play out—and leaking reports that Mayfield had lost the locker room last year—reports that have since been publicly disputed by some members of said locker room, including several all-pros, in running back Nick Chubb, and guard Wyatt Teller), and self-inflicted torpedoing of trade value by his own franchise, Mayfield was finally given his walking papers to the Carolina Panthers. The good? Well, fresh start, and maybe even better position player talent. The bad? His offensive line/protection takes a serious downgrade, and scheme-wise, while they are trying to adjust for that, I’m not entirely sure that it’s the best fit for a player like Mayfield (They want him to get the ball out quick, and yet, his play style relies on him breaking down the defense over a multiple seconds, scramble around, and find whoever comes open). For whatever may come to bear there, Chris also added Geno Smith as a free agent this off-season, as both an insurance policy on the seemingly never-ending will they or won’t they Cleveland trade drama, and also, because he quite capably replaced Russell Wilson in several starts last year, and has one of the very best skill position situations in the entire league. Oh, and Chris did a thing during the draft where he gave up a future 1st to become the first manager in league history to draft a QB who fell to the fifth round of the draft, in Sam Howell, despite receiving a first-round grade from the NFL Draft Advisory Committee. Perhaps more concerning is the fact that Howell has never eaten any protein other than chicken, so, clearly he’s a psychopath. At running back, Chris quite surprisingly traded away Christian McCaffrey (Or whatever husk of his body remains) for an $8/4y 6th round rookie runner, who turned in quite a season, but also missed several games with injuries, and is in Kyle Shanahan’s funhouse version of what backfields should look like. In the end, it won him a championship, but also, it caused him to finally part with the player who just three short seasons ago posted the most dominant fantasy running back season in the history of fantasy football, and still somehow just turned 26 years old. That’s quite a price for a player whom CIN barely lost a Week 2 bid on ($8/4y for TEN to $7/4y for CIN), and could have had essentially for free. The good news: CIN used the first-round pick that he got back in that deal, and a 2023 2nd Rounder (Effectively two 2nds, as he gave one up in the original CMC trade) to upgrade from Mitchell to Dalvin Cook, and net the services of handcuff Alexander Mattison. In terms of a pivot, McCaffrey to Cook and Mattison for two 2nds isn’t all that bad. The Bengals also recently acquired the rights to Chuba Hubbard, the handcuff to that same shell of a human being, McCaffrey (I kid…sort of), who produced some pretty impressive rookie fantasy stats—at the expense of efficiency numbers (But again, have you seen their former QB/OL situation?). Keep in mind, that Cincy still employs the services of Melvin Gordon, and you have one of the very best running back rooms in the league. At wideout, after the season-ending ACL injury to Tim Patrick, it’s a bit more complicated. Yes, you have fantasy WR1 Cooper Kupp, who came within just a few points of breaking Megatron’s all-time mark a year ago, but behind him are only Brandin Cooks—a very good, top-25 option who managed to keep his fantasy value in a disasterpiece Houston offense last year, and the recently acquired Randall Cobb, who is somehow still only 31 years old, but figures to play a leading role in the Packers’ offense, after the Green Bay front office decided it was against their religion to draft receivers in the high rounds for well over half of a decade. At tight end, Cincinnati was once more the beneficiary of a #1 at their position performance, this time in Mark Andrews. With Andrews hitting his prime, and with Baltimore jettisoning pretty much every other established receiving option, I see no logical reason that this will change in 2022. As a backup option, Chris recently signed rookie James Mitchell, who was considered one of college football’s top-5 tight ends entering the 2021 season, but who himself had an early season knee injury, and seemingly everyone forgot about him. He’ll try to carve out a role as a 2nd TE in a potentially functional or better Detroit offense. Defensively, it’s more of the same for the Bengals, who finished both 2019 and 2020 as the best defense in the league, and last year as the third-ranked unit—though 200+ points off the pace. Much of that was likely due to Blake Martinez’s early season-ending injury, paired with Zach Cunningham spending the year in the Texans’ on-again, off-again dog house, despite clearly being their defense’s most capable defender—a fact he proved once he was snagged by Tennessee, where he promptly regained his dominant form with playing time to end the season with a flourish. He’s once again locked into a top-2 role with fellow Bengals teammate David Long, who proved Chris’ speculative add right, averaging 12 PPG before going down with a phantom knee injury that lasted nearly half a season, with no updates being given from head coach Mike Vrabel. Add in Lavonte David’s 12 PPG, and rookie 99.98th percentile RAS scorer Chad Muma to that mix, and it’s quite possible that the Bengals have the best linebacking corps in the league once more. The defensive line is a top-10 unit, with yet another #1 at his position, Aaron Donald. Next to him, the Bengals plan to run it back with Emmanuel Ogbah, who once again posted 9 sacks a year ago, and was top-25 at the position. Behind those two is only Carlos Dunlap, who was a cut candidate when Chris acquired him a year ago—and then went on an improbable, all-time tear, solidifying his status for the 2023 squad (And now with a team that both wants to win, and has a clear need for his services), and proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that he has plenty left in the tank. Rounding out the defense, Cincinnati’s defensive backfield includes Budda Baker—who was good, but just a notch below his usually spectacular self in 2021, interception king JC Jackson (Or prince, I suppose, as he finished second in that respect, with 8, to Trevon Diggs’ 11 in 2021), Erik Harris (Who was in the process of posting a career-best year in Atlanta before succumbed to injury late in the year), and youngster Marcus Epps, who finds himself in a race for a starting spot in Philadelphia’s secondary with veteran Jaquiski Tartt, whose play fell off a cliff a year ago, and was the reason that he went unsigned deep into the off-season. While Tartt probably has the leg up for the position on that basis alone, Epps was a top-20 player at his position each of the last two years according to PFF—a full 20 points clear of Tartt’s grade, which has declined each of the last four years.
X-factor: Health and WR. If it feels like a reprise from last year, it’s because it is. Strangely, despite the fact that the Bengals won it all last year, they lost both their top offensive and defensive players early in the year, and still managed to do so. If not the most difficult path to a championship in history, the job that Chris did in rolling with the blows (And there were quite a few big ones), especially while spending two months—including the whole fantasy playoffs—overseas, is commendable. Already suffering a major injury in camp, and with less depth than previous years at all but one position, it’s key that Chris gets some semblance of health from this group (Particularly at the WR position). Otherwise, he can kiss his shot at a Philly-style repeat bon voyage.
Projected division finish: 1st
Cleveland Browns (Kevin)
Last year’s finish: 19th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Mired in mediocrity, Kevin’s Browns have rarely been bottom dwellers, but have also struggled to break into the top-half of the league’s teams on more than one or two occasions. 2021 was not an exception to that rule, as Cleveland finished 6-7, straight-up beating the league champion Bengals by 20 points, to deny them the AFC’s #1 seed—but also, by virtue of a head-to-head loss to Baltimore, finished at the bottom of the AFC North. While a few names have changed, Kevin is basically bringing back a very similar squad to the 2021 version. It all starts with Kyler Murray, who is one of the league’s top young quarterbacks, as well as one of the top dual-threat options, irrespective of if he’s been studying tape. He figures to be one of the best QBs in the league again, as long as the Cardinals’ late-season collapse wasn’t a harbinger of what’s to come. Running back, just like in 2021, and in many previous iterations, is Kevin’s biggest problem position. Currently, the Browns sport a total of ZERO healthy or rostered players at the position, and a recipe for success that does not often make. Frankly, it is critical that he brings in at least one back (If not more) that gets significant playing time, if he wants to have any chance of contention this year. Wide receiver is actually a bit of a strength, comparatively, for Kevin, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and A.J. Green holding down the starting roles—but beyond those two, it’s all about things falling the right way. For instance, absent his comments about vaccines, disregard for his own personal health, and that of his teammates, Cole Beasley would likely be employed right now, despite his falling off a cliff year that was his age-32 season. Many players refused vaccines and flouted league protocols to prevent the spread of COVID-19, but the fact that Beasley so vociferously, and publicly fought these protections (And his teammates—particularly their star/No. 1 receiver), and made himself the center of attention on the anti-mask/anti-vaccine front, probably cost him the rest of his football career. It’s hard to be the biggest distraction on a team, and simultaneously be the fourth receiver. It would be shocking to see him signed to anything more than a camp, or prove it deal. Other members of the Cleveland wide receiving corps are Tyler Johnson (Who is long on talent, but buried on the Buccaneers’ depth chart), and Collin Johnson, who is good at being tall. Tight end offers two potentially palatable options, in Dan Arnold, who became one of the few players that benefitted from Urban Meyer’s time at the helm in Jacksonville (And probably one of the few players or coaches that the now deposed head man didn’t either verbally or physically abuse), and Kyle Rudolph, who has slowed precipitously in recent years (Pun not intended, but accepted), but became the Giants’ most reliable/preferred TE target down the stretch last year, and was acceptable in that role. He now finds himself in a potentially cushy pitfall situation, whereby he may be expected to be the key player in replacing Rob Gronkowski’s production at tight end in Tampa Bay. Either he or Arnold beating out Rudolph’s former compatriot/competition in New York, having a good year would be a huge plus for the Browns. Defensively, this unit is all over the map. Dalvin Tomlinson, and solid 2021 rookie contributor Kwitty Paye form a solid if unspectacular defensive line. It’s also possible that they’ll be backed up by Uchenna Nwosu, depending on his positionality in Seattle. At linebacker, T.J. Watt leads the way after an all-time season that saw him tie the single-season sack record (22.5). Anytime an outside linebacker has that kind of production, he makes himself relevant alongside the off-ball, and inside linebackers at the position—sometimes even placing them at the very top end of the position, as in Watt’s case. Behind him is second-year breakout candidate, Zaven Collins, whose spot in Arizona was previously blocked by Jordan Hicks (Who is no longer in town). Collins should therefore handle the bulk of his vacant snaps. Alongside those two are the ageless two-down wonder, Josh Bynes, who still puts up decent numbers in limited snaps, and afterthoughts (At this point of their careers), Dont’a Hightower, Alex Ogletree, and Neville Hewitt. In the secondary, slot corner Troy Hill, Jaire Alexander, and Michaels Davis and Hughes man the position. These players will at least score points, so it’s not the worst DB room in the league, but it’s far from the best.
X-factor: Running back. Looking back over the league annals, the number of teams that have made the playoffs without a significant contributor at running back is 0. It is therefore incumbent upon him to either acquire one, or prove everyone wrong, and become the first team in league history to do so.
Projected division finish: 4th
Pittsburgh Steelers (Garrett)
Last year’s finish: 15th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: As mentioned above, last year was the first year in the re-realization of the Steelers under Garrett. Much like Chris will face in coming years, Garrett’s desire to run things back, contend, and elongate his championship window came back to bite him in 2019, and necessitated a rebuild. But well into that rebuild he is, and this group, with a mix of youth and experience, is undoubtedly his best since 2018 (And potentially even before then, as that team overachieved relative to its points production). It all starts with the GOAT, Tom Brady, at the quarterback position. Maybe you’ve heard of him? Let’s move along then, as until he shows otherwise, he’s ageless, and as sure a fantasy commodity in the high-to-middle tier as they come. Behind him is Drew Lock, who the Seahawks at least pretended to covet for a minute, before turning around and bringing Geno Smith back. If he wins the job, Garrett can expect some nominal compensation for him. At running back, last year’s premier rookie running back, Najee Harris returns after a superlative fantasy year. However, he was doomed by a Steelers line that forced him to run directly into brick walls all season long—and that takes a toll, I don’t care who you are (Up to and including 250 lb. tailbacks). Additionally, the Steelers leaned on their rookie so heavily (He racked up 374 touches—and while that’s not over the dreaded 400, the fact that he flirted with that number as a rookie is a potentially ominous sign of how the Steelers plan to use him every year that he can keep it up), you do have to wonder about his durability/ability to remain effective (As a reminder of how perilous handling that many touches is, just look at the history of runners who have received 400 touches, and their subsequent seasons). That said, as long as he’s healthy, and being force-fed touches, he’s the best of his kind among the big-backs, given his ability to play a major role in the passing game as well. Behind him, Zach Moss is the only other runner on the roster. To say he’s had a tumultuous early career is an understatement. In a weekly tug of war with Devin Singletary in early 2020, he fumbled away several early chances, and has oscillated between effective runner/receiver, to Sean McDermott’s dog house, to weekly inactive, to losing work to a free agent signing off the street. That up and down is too tough to follow, and it’s hard to imagine he’ll break free from that fate—especially when he already has one of the most run-happy quarterbacks in football—in 2022, no matter how ardently his coaches suggest that he’ll have a role, as they have so far during training camp. Receiver is a clear strength for Garrett, though there’s obviously a big damper for 2022, as Calvin Ridley was suspended for the year for betting less than he makes in an hour on himself. In one of the most arcane and needing of nuance rules on the book, you cannot bet on yourself without serving a yearlong suspension, but you can credibly be accused of domestic violence or sexual assault, and find yourself only missing a handful of games. He should inject some serious fuel into this engine next year, but will be burning a hole in Garrett’s pocket (Especially if he’s a serious contender) as he collects dust in 2022. Without him, it’s still a strong unit, with early bloomer Tee Higgins being pelted with Joe Burrow throws, JuJu Smith-Schuster figuring to be among (Or maybe even the) leader(s) in the Kansas City receiving corps, Amon-Ra St. Brown in an overhauled Detroit offense—though some of that comes at his expense, with the additions of arguably two more talented receivers in Jameson Williams, and DJ Chark, Russell Gage—who should be the major beneficiary of Ridley’s season away, and Tutu Atwell (Read in a Mike Tyson voice for a double/conclusory meaning). Returning at the tight end position are Tyler Higbee, who should continue to serve as a fringe-top-tier-to-middle-tier tight end, and Tommy Tremble, who has many football minds impressed with his athleticism, and decent rookie campaign. Garrett’s additions this offseason were focused on the defensive side of the ball (Which consist of Arik Armstead, Marcus Williams, and Quay Walker) and it’s easy to see why. Clearly the weaker of the two sides of the ball for the Steelers, this unit is one on the rise, but also one that has seen the stars of some of its recent picks, fade. Nowhere is that more clear than with Malik Harrison, who was anticipated to start in short order, and has rather been relegated to the bench duties. In addition to him, the careers of 2021 rookies Chazz Surratt, and Trevon Moehrig have yet to take off—though Moehrig could easily make this jump this year. Where the defense is really strong is its potential. Alongside of the previously mentioned names are 2021 impact rookie Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, the young, dominant defensive lineman Jeffrey Simmons, the finally fantasy-relevant Nasir Adderly, and the potential of players like the Walkers Mykal and Clay. Also present are Larry Ogunjobi, who had one of the best seasons of any DL in fantasy a year ago, along with long-time holdover Brandon Graham, fresh off an injury-shortened 2021 (And a slight yearly age regression, at 34). If he can return to form, this is undoubtedly in the conversation with Miami as the best defensive line in the league. Jon Bostic is also on the roster, but at present, is a free agent. The improvements are clear, and this should be right on the edge of a top-10 unit because of them.
X-factor: Health and continued growth. There’s not much more than Garrett could have done to play his cards more right throughout this process, and as a result, Pittsburgh is back. Expect a team that will be in every game, and could make a deep playoff push. They’re tantalizingly close to becoming a dynasty once more.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Thank you for reading this, the first in the series of Divisional Previews. I will publish the second installment this weekend, this time looking at the NFC West.