Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Sept 13, 2021 2:54:16 GMT -5
NFC SOUTH
Last year was a banner season for the NFC South, as all four teams were above 5-7, and no better than 9-3. They beat up on each other, and in the end, the division was actually decided on a head-to-head between the Falcons and the Panthers. The Bucs also found their way into the playoffs, and they, and the Falcons, made their way into the Second Round (And further, in the case of ATL), and the NFC Championship respectively. Each of those three teams is back with a competitive team again this year, and looking to avenge their defeats of a season ago. After rotating the division crown in two-year intervals, is it time for someone else (Perhaps Tampa or New Orleans…or even Carolina) to take over the division? Can Atlanta hang on and make it three in a row? Will New Orleans take the long route, or try to add for a competitive squad now? All this and more about the league’s most hotly-contested division, coming up, in our final divisional preview of the year. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Atlanta Falcons (Ryan)
Last year’s finish: 4th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: For what feels like the one-millionth season in a row, Ryan’s Falcons outperformed my pre-season projections in 2020, repeating his 2019 division win, but this time with a strong (And less unlucky) Carolina team to contest him. That narrative came to fruition too, as it literally came down to those teams’ head-to-head matchup in Week 10 (A near 50-point Atlanta rout) to decide the champion. He then replicated that result in the First Round of the playoffs (Though this one was much more competitive). From there, Atlanta just nipped the Vikings, and then met its match in the NFC Championship Game, in eventual champion Dallas. Still, it was a fantastic season, representing Ryan’s highest finish, and proved that the Falcons are one of the elite teams in the league to any nonbelievers. Looking ahead to this season, the majority of what made the Falcons successful in 2020 returns. That of course starts with reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, who had one of his most efficient seasons a year ago at the ripe young age of 36. If Rodgers can avoid any rust from missing essentially the entire off-season after a dispute with how the football operations of the Packers were being run, he should be among the top-5 QBs in the league again. Just in case it’s necessary, Ryan made the smart decision to handcuff Rodgers with his heir apparent, in Jordan Love. At running back, Darrell Henderson returns, and should see an even larger workload, with 2020 Rams’ first-choice starter Cam Akers going down to a season-ending injury right before the season. Atlanta also possesses committee back Leonard Fournette, and Tennessee handcuff Darrynton Evans as auxiliary options. At wide receiver, Ryan has one of the better units in the league in terms of depth. The unit is led by deep threat extraordinaire D.J. Chark, and the player who’s been given as many undeserved second chances as he has career yards to his name, in Antonio Brown. As long as he’s not sexually assaulting and doxxing women, freezing his feet, threatening to retire over a helmet, threatening and hurling racial slurs at his GM and the commissioner, failing to pay his financial obligations, destroying property, cursing out his co-op board, or some other guaranteed headache, he should benefit from playing in one of the best offenses in football (Wait, I’m just realizing he did all that stuff and was allowed to come back and play anyway, so I guess nothing matters). Behind those two, Nelson Agholor and Josh Reynolds are solid options, but play on teams that aren’t known to be pass heavy, and each like to spread the ball around outside of their primary targets (Of which, Tennessee happens to have two of the very best). Rashard Higgins, who last year started being known as “The Real Hollywood” as opposed to “The Second/Other Hollywood,” was very good on a sporadic basis after Odell Beckham Jr.’s injury, but will likely lose some of his steam with OBJ’s return, and the further emergence of Donovan Peoples-Jones in the Cleveland offense. Rookie D’Wayne Eskridge has track star speed, but his usefulness depends entirely on the Seahawks willingness to let Russ cook. At tight end, Ryan made a nice late off-season addition of Tyler Conklin, who was the direct beneficiary of Irv Smith’s potential season-ending injury for the TE-needy Vikings. I don’t expect big numbers from him, but he should be adequate for a position that is essentially dying out in terms of fantasy relevance over the last half decade. Atlanta also has Ian Thomas and Jacob Harris in reserve. Defensively, there are quite a few positives, but also a few drawbacks. In the middle, Demario Davis returns after establishing himself as one of fantasy’s best at the position. He’s flanked by Dre Greenlaw, who himself has proven to be one of fantasy’s best young linebackers. Logan Wilson was a bit of a mixed bag as a rookie, but should take a step forward in his second year if he improves in pass coverage. Harold Landry has been one of the league’s most-consistent and playable EDGE rushers, and should help on the back end of the lineup. At defensive back, Atlanta also sports one of the league’s best young defensive backs in Jeremy Chinn. He forms a pretty superb three-man group with Marcus Williams, and Rayshawn Jenkins—though those are the only three on the roster at that position. On the defensive line, Fletcher Cox has been a solid option for a long time, and there’s no reason that shouldn’t continue this season. Likewise, Derek Wolfe is super-reliable, though he recently picked up a knock and is not available. That leaves only rookie Payton Turner as the only other healthy DL on the roster right now.
X-factor: Depth at the edges of the roster. While everyone would ask for more depth if it were free and infinitely available, too often concerns over what it would cost to acquire it weigh too heavily in the mind of contending teams. After the two-straight division titles, and a 4th-placed finish in 2020, Atlanta definitionally is that, looking down on the rest of the division. The greatest question mark that remains for him is simply, what happens in the case where an important player goes down. Ryan has done a good job of insulating himself at positions like QB, WR, RB, LB, and even TE. But if he drops points to other top teams, including one or two of them in his own division, those division wins by a single result could flip the other way.
Projected division finish: 1st
Carolina Panthers (Justin)
Last year’s finish: 11th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: The Carolina Panthers were a frustrating team in 2020, mostly for things out of the control of their manager, Justin. Firstly, there were the injuries. Justin lost Geronimo Allison due to a COVID opt-out before the year, Blake Jarwin to in the first game of the campaign, Evan Engram at various times throughout the year, and Odell Beckham Jr. for the season less than halfway through the campaign. He also suffered the indignity of having his quarterback, former MVP-candidate Carson Wentz, benched before the season came to a close (And at the crucial moment, as it was during his playoff rematch with Atlanta, a game in which he lost by only six points). And while he didn’t technically lose his QB until the moment of his very elimination, it obviously still impacted him having to spend the season with Wentz stinking it up en route to getting his pink slip and marching orders from Philadelphia. Despite all of that, Carolina managed to compile a 9-3 record, and was only a H2H matchup with Atlanta away from reclaiming its division crown. Instead, that bad luck left him on the short end of the stick, and looking to regroup after a bad taste had been left in his mouth for two consecutive seasons. While he retained Wentz (Who now has the starting job in Indianapolis), he still has to deal with the headache, as even if his on-field play sharply improves, he will have to deal with Wentz’s constant availability questions, as Wentz remains one of the league’s foremost vaccine skeptics, despite missing time already for being an unvaccinated player who was a close contact with a COVID-positive staff member. He has a ton of talent, but injuries, as well as his decision-making have been issues for him since that 2017 regular season. Another player who is a shell of his former self is Ezekiel Elliott. While he’s still a very effective player, his efficiency has torpedoed year-by-year, and while a lot of last year’s problems were more endemic of Dallas’ post-Dak offense as a whole, it’s clear that Zeke is not the same player he was as a dynamic rookie, taking the league by storm in 2016. Getting up their in age for running back years, it’s an open question whether he is even the best back on his team anymore (Though Jerry Jones can and probably will find $90 million reasons to ignore this issue). Ultimately, even with a more passing-oriented offense in 2021, Zeke retains a high floor, as he’s going to be spoon-fed the ball when the Cowboys choose to run, unless he completely embarrasses himself and plays himself out of a job. Thankfully for Justin, Kareem Hunt makes for one hell of a stand-in, and gives the Panthers one of the most-enviable RB situations in the league, as they’re one of the rare teams with two legitimate starting quality RBs (Call Hunt a starter or not, but if he’s not considered one, he’s the very best backup in the league, and better than some official starters). At wide receiver, while having the combination of Beckham and Woods back together will be a boon, Justin aggressively went up and added Heisman Trophy-winner DeVonta Smith, just as the Eagles did in the actual draft. That combination of those three WRs is among the elite ones in this league. Behind them, however, there’s next to nothing, with only David Moore (Recently released, and claimed by a Raiders team with many bodies, each more average than the next—a designation that includes Moore, despite relative success in Seattle), and Equanimeous St. Brown. Tight end, however, is covered, with Evan Engram (Provided he gets healthy in a timely manner), and Blake Jarwin on the roster. Engram has progressively faded from his early-career highs, but is still a solid option at the position, an athletic mismatch, and someone for whom the Giants’ staff has openly articulated that they want to get the ball to. Overall, it’s still a top-10 unit on that side of the ball. On defense, the outlook is a bit more mixed. While Eric Wilson is expected to pick up in Philly right where he left off in Minnesota in 2020, his partner in the middle, Micah Kiser, was recently released by the Rams, and while he was re-signed to the practice squad, it sounds like they only plan to use him now in an emergency. That leaves the Panthers with only three linebackers on active rosters: Wilson, Zaire Franklin, and recently reassigned to linebacker EDGE Trey Flowers. At defensive line, Carolina currently only has two options, but they are both excellent ones, in Sam Hubbard, and Grady Jarrett. At defensive back, it’s a four-man group led by the Honey Badger, Tyrann Mathieu, Logan Ryan, D.J. Reed, and Julian Blackmon. It’s definitely within the top-half of DB units league-wide, if not better.
X-factor: Linebacker/Depth. Obviously the biggest problem facing Carolina is how to replace someone who Justin thought was going to star for him on the inside, and right before the season as well (That makes it even harder). While there are still plenty of potent scoring options around the roster, the lack of depth is concerning for a team that has experienced such bad luck/injuries the last few seasons. Without an upgrade in the middle of his defense, I fear that Justin will once again be looking up to Ryan…and maybe even Caleb, in this division. Projected division finish: 2nd
New Orleans Saints (Alex)
Last year’s finish: 19th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: 2020 saw previous New Orleans GM Anthony restore respectability to a franchise that has lacked it since, well…outside of Vic occasionally doing so, the beginning of the league. Now, in steps Alex to give it a try, and to try not to become the next New Orleans GM that we have to replace (He’s already the fourth manager in four years). While there are still some pretty obvious holes in the roster, Anthony’s stabilizing presence helped him retain most of the top-talent on his roster, rather than previous managers, who have simply given it away to league powers too cheaply. Josh Allen, the 2020 runner-up to MVP returns, after making a ton of progress in his third year. He should once again be one of the very best quarterbacks, and offensive players in the league, especially as he essentially operates as his own running back as well. If only he were eligible for that position as well, Alex might opt to play him there, as in the last week, he has lost presumed Ravens’ starter Gus Edwards (Who himself was in that position due to a season-ending injuries to his backfield mates J.K. Dobbins and Justice Hill) to season-ending injury, Mike Boone and noted anti-vaxxer and aspiring child murderer Jalen Richard, and Latavius Murray being cut by the Saints (Though, also, now joins a who’s who of has been running backs in Baltimore, in an attempt to replace Edwards). That leaves only a decrepit Mark Ingram, who formerly headed the committees in both New Orleans and Baltimore, and Murray (Presumably) as the only backs who will play in Week 1, taking what would’ve been a strength for the Saints, to a stated weakness. At wideout, the outlook isn’t quite as bleak, with Jarvis Landry and Bryan Edwards set to make a functional pair. Deonte Harris will also run much higher in New Orleans’ offense while Michael Thomas is sidelined. James Proche and Olamide Zaccheaus, a little less so, appear to be fantasy irrelevant. At tight end, C.J. Uzomah is the only option, though a reliable one, with both a low-ceiling, and a low-floor in his offense. Defensively, its shades of the same, with the second year breakout candidate Willie Gay sidelined with injury. Without him, the only linebackers on the roster are recently reclassified Chandler Jones, Oshane Ximines, rookie Justin Hilliard, and free agent Mark Barron. Outside of Jones, none of those players are likely to have any fantasy impact this season. The defensive line is serviceable, with Demarcus Lawrence leading a group that includes Jarran Reed, and Denico Autry. The defensive backfield is in excellent shape, with Justin Simmons, Darnell Savage, Kyle Fuller, Jeff Okudah. And Damon Arnette comprising one of the best such groups in the league (Editor’s note: Though Savage and Okudah have both left their Week 1 games, and not returned).
X-factor: Growth. Even before all of these injuries occurred, it was a long way up the division, and by extension, league ladder. If Alex can be patient, and make smart additions one at a time, he could be competitive in a few short years, especially if and when he starts getting some of these injured players back. For now though, it’s all about taking stock of where the team is, and finding ways to gradually improve it. That should be the goal, because the results from now aren’t going to matter much.
Projected division finish: 4th
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Caleb)
Last year’s finish: 8th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: In last year’s preview, I spoke of how big a piece Saquon Barkley was to this offense/team (Really?), and how utterly devastated the Buccaneers were when he went down. Unfortunately, 2020 was a song on repeat regarding this matter, forcing Caleb to have to scramble to once again fill the hole left behind by one of fantasy (And regular) football’s most dynamic playmakers. While his supporting cast was much better than a year previous, he still struggled with the week-to-week inconsistency that comes with losing a foundational talent. Nowhere was that ever more apparent than when, in the midst of a four-game losing streak that saw the Bucs fall over backwards into a playoff spot, having not scored more than 123 points in a game over that stretch (And the other three were all less than 112), The Bucs went up against the 1-seeded Seahawks in the First Round of the playoffs, and pasted them with 161 points (Still sans Barkley). If nothing else, it shows that Tampa Bay can certainly spool up, even when not fully healthy. This season, as the plan to re-integrate Saquon is rumored to be a slow one, Caleb acquired Cordarrelle Patterson, who should be the backup, and passing back for the Falcons, and may be able to hold him over until Saquon is truly back in force. At the top of the lineup, Goff returns again, and while the Rams paid a king’s ransom to offload their former 1st overall pick, and Detroit’s offense promises to be a moribund collection of misfit, bit-part players…oh, I have to finish that? Well, he is still a starter. Outside of him, and Patterson, every other player on offense is among the best at their positions in the league. That includes DeAndre Hopkins (When he’s not threatening to retire over a vaccine that could save his life…and then realizing how much money he would forfeit if he did, and not sticking to his principles), Deebo Samuel (Who has tantalizing talent, but an injury history that would make Jordan Reed blush), and Darren Waller, one of the league’s most inspiring success stories. On defense, it’s a unit that sports a lot of depth, going at least four deep at all but defensive line (And in fairness, Tampa rostered three of them before a season-ending injury took his best DL from him just prior to the season. Starting out at linebacker, it’s hard to make who will and won’t succeed at becoming a fantasy factor in 2021, but Caleb sure bought his tickets for the raffle. The septet of players at the position, De’Vondre Campbell, Christian Kirksey, Tae Crowder, Kwon Alexander, Divine Deablo, Anthony Hitchens, and Kenny Young, all bring something to the table. For all but Deablo, they bring experience—some more than others. In Campbell, the Bucs have the most-talented LB on Green Bay’s roster. With Kirksey and Alexander, Caleb possesses two players with a history of production when healthy, but who are attempting to make it back from previous injuries. For Hitchens, it’s declining with age, and having his role reduced by younger players. With Crowder and Young, it’s two players who have had a varying degree of success. Deablo, though his playing time figures to be limited, is one of a growing breed of linebackers who converted from safety, where he spent his college reps at Virginia Tech. Speaking of defensive backs, it’s quite possible that the Bucs have the best top-3 in the league, with Jessie Bates, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Eric Rowe. After that, only Justin Burris remains on the bench, but he can be used in a pinch. On the line, the shallowest part of the team, only Sheldon Richardson and Adam Butler remain. They should be fine, if not exceptional.
X-factor: Filling the edges of the lineup. The defensive line, the second ID spot, and RWT position on offense all need to be addressed. Those, while they may seem like small things, are the kinds of adjustments that may separate TB from the top-two teams in this division. While there’s still a gap, the Bucs are the league’s best third-place team, and once again should sneak into the playoffs at a minimum, and be right in the thick of it for a division crown in the league’s most difficult division. How he improves in light of that, could mean the difference between hoisting a division trophy, or even a league one (Though, again, not an actual one, because league members didn’t want to pitch in to buy one that would be shipped to the champion each year), and a replica of 2020. This team is really good, and is closer to the top of the division than the bottom.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Thank you for reading the 2021 divisional previews. Please also check out the 2021 Pre-Season Power Rankings, which will be available shortly.
Last year was a banner season for the NFC South, as all four teams were above 5-7, and no better than 9-3. They beat up on each other, and in the end, the division was actually decided on a head-to-head between the Falcons and the Panthers. The Bucs also found their way into the playoffs, and they, and the Falcons, made their way into the Second Round (And further, in the case of ATL), and the NFC Championship respectively. Each of those three teams is back with a competitive team again this year, and looking to avenge their defeats of a season ago. After rotating the division crown in two-year intervals, is it time for someone else (Perhaps Tampa or New Orleans…or even Carolina) to take over the division? Can Atlanta hang on and make it three in a row? Will New Orleans take the long route, or try to add for a competitive squad now? All this and more about the league’s most hotly-contested division, coming up, in our final divisional preview of the year. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Atlanta Falcons (Ryan)
Last year’s finish: 4th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: For what feels like the one-millionth season in a row, Ryan’s Falcons outperformed my pre-season projections in 2020, repeating his 2019 division win, but this time with a strong (And less unlucky) Carolina team to contest him. That narrative came to fruition too, as it literally came down to those teams’ head-to-head matchup in Week 10 (A near 50-point Atlanta rout) to decide the champion. He then replicated that result in the First Round of the playoffs (Though this one was much more competitive). From there, Atlanta just nipped the Vikings, and then met its match in the NFC Championship Game, in eventual champion Dallas. Still, it was a fantastic season, representing Ryan’s highest finish, and proved that the Falcons are one of the elite teams in the league to any nonbelievers. Looking ahead to this season, the majority of what made the Falcons successful in 2020 returns. That of course starts with reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, who had one of his most efficient seasons a year ago at the ripe young age of 36. If Rodgers can avoid any rust from missing essentially the entire off-season after a dispute with how the football operations of the Packers were being run, he should be among the top-5 QBs in the league again. Just in case it’s necessary, Ryan made the smart decision to handcuff Rodgers with his heir apparent, in Jordan Love. At running back, Darrell Henderson returns, and should see an even larger workload, with 2020 Rams’ first-choice starter Cam Akers going down to a season-ending injury right before the season. Atlanta also possesses committee back Leonard Fournette, and Tennessee handcuff Darrynton Evans as auxiliary options. At wide receiver, Ryan has one of the better units in the league in terms of depth. The unit is led by deep threat extraordinaire D.J. Chark, and the player who’s been given as many undeserved second chances as he has career yards to his name, in Antonio Brown. As long as he’s not sexually assaulting and doxxing women, freezing his feet, threatening to retire over a helmet, threatening and hurling racial slurs at his GM and the commissioner, failing to pay his financial obligations, destroying property, cursing out his co-op board, or some other guaranteed headache, he should benefit from playing in one of the best offenses in football (Wait, I’m just realizing he did all that stuff and was allowed to come back and play anyway, so I guess nothing matters). Behind those two, Nelson Agholor and Josh Reynolds are solid options, but play on teams that aren’t known to be pass heavy, and each like to spread the ball around outside of their primary targets (Of which, Tennessee happens to have two of the very best). Rashard Higgins, who last year started being known as “The Real Hollywood” as opposed to “The Second/Other Hollywood,” was very good on a sporadic basis after Odell Beckham Jr.’s injury, but will likely lose some of his steam with OBJ’s return, and the further emergence of Donovan Peoples-Jones in the Cleveland offense. Rookie D’Wayne Eskridge has track star speed, but his usefulness depends entirely on the Seahawks willingness to let Russ cook. At tight end, Ryan made a nice late off-season addition of Tyler Conklin, who was the direct beneficiary of Irv Smith’s potential season-ending injury for the TE-needy Vikings. I don’t expect big numbers from him, but he should be adequate for a position that is essentially dying out in terms of fantasy relevance over the last half decade. Atlanta also has Ian Thomas and Jacob Harris in reserve. Defensively, there are quite a few positives, but also a few drawbacks. In the middle, Demario Davis returns after establishing himself as one of fantasy’s best at the position. He’s flanked by Dre Greenlaw, who himself has proven to be one of fantasy’s best young linebackers. Logan Wilson was a bit of a mixed bag as a rookie, but should take a step forward in his second year if he improves in pass coverage. Harold Landry has been one of the league’s most-consistent and playable EDGE rushers, and should help on the back end of the lineup. At defensive back, Atlanta also sports one of the league’s best young defensive backs in Jeremy Chinn. He forms a pretty superb three-man group with Marcus Williams, and Rayshawn Jenkins—though those are the only three on the roster at that position. On the defensive line, Fletcher Cox has been a solid option for a long time, and there’s no reason that shouldn’t continue this season. Likewise, Derek Wolfe is super-reliable, though he recently picked up a knock and is not available. That leaves only rookie Payton Turner as the only other healthy DL on the roster right now.
X-factor: Depth at the edges of the roster. While everyone would ask for more depth if it were free and infinitely available, too often concerns over what it would cost to acquire it weigh too heavily in the mind of contending teams. After the two-straight division titles, and a 4th-placed finish in 2020, Atlanta definitionally is that, looking down on the rest of the division. The greatest question mark that remains for him is simply, what happens in the case where an important player goes down. Ryan has done a good job of insulating himself at positions like QB, WR, RB, LB, and even TE. But if he drops points to other top teams, including one or two of them in his own division, those division wins by a single result could flip the other way.
Projected division finish: 1st
Carolina Panthers (Justin)
Last year’s finish: 11th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: The Carolina Panthers were a frustrating team in 2020, mostly for things out of the control of their manager, Justin. Firstly, there were the injuries. Justin lost Geronimo Allison due to a COVID opt-out before the year, Blake Jarwin to in the first game of the campaign, Evan Engram at various times throughout the year, and Odell Beckham Jr. for the season less than halfway through the campaign. He also suffered the indignity of having his quarterback, former MVP-candidate Carson Wentz, benched before the season came to a close (And at the crucial moment, as it was during his playoff rematch with Atlanta, a game in which he lost by only six points). And while he didn’t technically lose his QB until the moment of his very elimination, it obviously still impacted him having to spend the season with Wentz stinking it up en route to getting his pink slip and marching orders from Philadelphia. Despite all of that, Carolina managed to compile a 9-3 record, and was only a H2H matchup with Atlanta away from reclaiming its division crown. Instead, that bad luck left him on the short end of the stick, and looking to regroup after a bad taste had been left in his mouth for two consecutive seasons. While he retained Wentz (Who now has the starting job in Indianapolis), he still has to deal with the headache, as even if his on-field play sharply improves, he will have to deal with Wentz’s constant availability questions, as Wentz remains one of the league’s foremost vaccine skeptics, despite missing time already for being an unvaccinated player who was a close contact with a COVID-positive staff member. He has a ton of talent, but injuries, as well as his decision-making have been issues for him since that 2017 regular season. Another player who is a shell of his former self is Ezekiel Elliott. While he’s still a very effective player, his efficiency has torpedoed year-by-year, and while a lot of last year’s problems were more endemic of Dallas’ post-Dak offense as a whole, it’s clear that Zeke is not the same player he was as a dynamic rookie, taking the league by storm in 2016. Getting up their in age for running back years, it’s an open question whether he is even the best back on his team anymore (Though Jerry Jones can and probably will find $90 million reasons to ignore this issue). Ultimately, even with a more passing-oriented offense in 2021, Zeke retains a high floor, as he’s going to be spoon-fed the ball when the Cowboys choose to run, unless he completely embarrasses himself and plays himself out of a job. Thankfully for Justin, Kareem Hunt makes for one hell of a stand-in, and gives the Panthers one of the most-enviable RB situations in the league, as they’re one of the rare teams with two legitimate starting quality RBs (Call Hunt a starter or not, but if he’s not considered one, he’s the very best backup in the league, and better than some official starters). At wide receiver, while having the combination of Beckham and Woods back together will be a boon, Justin aggressively went up and added Heisman Trophy-winner DeVonta Smith, just as the Eagles did in the actual draft. That combination of those three WRs is among the elite ones in this league. Behind them, however, there’s next to nothing, with only David Moore (Recently released, and claimed by a Raiders team with many bodies, each more average than the next—a designation that includes Moore, despite relative success in Seattle), and Equanimeous St. Brown. Tight end, however, is covered, with Evan Engram (Provided he gets healthy in a timely manner), and Blake Jarwin on the roster. Engram has progressively faded from his early-career highs, but is still a solid option at the position, an athletic mismatch, and someone for whom the Giants’ staff has openly articulated that they want to get the ball to. Overall, it’s still a top-10 unit on that side of the ball. On defense, the outlook is a bit more mixed. While Eric Wilson is expected to pick up in Philly right where he left off in Minnesota in 2020, his partner in the middle, Micah Kiser, was recently released by the Rams, and while he was re-signed to the practice squad, it sounds like they only plan to use him now in an emergency. That leaves the Panthers with only three linebackers on active rosters: Wilson, Zaire Franklin, and recently reassigned to linebacker EDGE Trey Flowers. At defensive line, Carolina currently only has two options, but they are both excellent ones, in Sam Hubbard, and Grady Jarrett. At defensive back, it’s a four-man group led by the Honey Badger, Tyrann Mathieu, Logan Ryan, D.J. Reed, and Julian Blackmon. It’s definitely within the top-half of DB units league-wide, if not better.
X-factor: Linebacker/Depth. Obviously the biggest problem facing Carolina is how to replace someone who Justin thought was going to star for him on the inside, and right before the season as well (That makes it even harder). While there are still plenty of potent scoring options around the roster, the lack of depth is concerning for a team that has experienced such bad luck/injuries the last few seasons. Without an upgrade in the middle of his defense, I fear that Justin will once again be looking up to Ryan…and maybe even Caleb, in this division. Projected division finish: 2nd
New Orleans Saints (Alex)
Last year’s finish: 19th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: 2020 saw previous New Orleans GM Anthony restore respectability to a franchise that has lacked it since, well…outside of Vic occasionally doing so, the beginning of the league. Now, in steps Alex to give it a try, and to try not to become the next New Orleans GM that we have to replace (He’s already the fourth manager in four years). While there are still some pretty obvious holes in the roster, Anthony’s stabilizing presence helped him retain most of the top-talent on his roster, rather than previous managers, who have simply given it away to league powers too cheaply. Josh Allen, the 2020 runner-up to MVP returns, after making a ton of progress in his third year. He should once again be one of the very best quarterbacks, and offensive players in the league, especially as he essentially operates as his own running back as well. If only he were eligible for that position as well, Alex might opt to play him there, as in the last week, he has lost presumed Ravens’ starter Gus Edwards (Who himself was in that position due to a season-ending injuries to his backfield mates J.K. Dobbins and Justice Hill) to season-ending injury, Mike Boone and noted anti-vaxxer and aspiring child murderer Jalen Richard, and Latavius Murray being cut by the Saints (Though, also, now joins a who’s who of has been running backs in Baltimore, in an attempt to replace Edwards). That leaves only a decrepit Mark Ingram, who formerly headed the committees in both New Orleans and Baltimore, and Murray (Presumably) as the only backs who will play in Week 1, taking what would’ve been a strength for the Saints, to a stated weakness. At wideout, the outlook isn’t quite as bleak, with Jarvis Landry and Bryan Edwards set to make a functional pair. Deonte Harris will also run much higher in New Orleans’ offense while Michael Thomas is sidelined. James Proche and Olamide Zaccheaus, a little less so, appear to be fantasy irrelevant. At tight end, C.J. Uzomah is the only option, though a reliable one, with both a low-ceiling, and a low-floor in his offense. Defensively, its shades of the same, with the second year breakout candidate Willie Gay sidelined with injury. Without him, the only linebackers on the roster are recently reclassified Chandler Jones, Oshane Ximines, rookie Justin Hilliard, and free agent Mark Barron. Outside of Jones, none of those players are likely to have any fantasy impact this season. The defensive line is serviceable, with Demarcus Lawrence leading a group that includes Jarran Reed, and Denico Autry. The defensive backfield is in excellent shape, with Justin Simmons, Darnell Savage, Kyle Fuller, Jeff Okudah. And Damon Arnette comprising one of the best such groups in the league (Editor’s note: Though Savage and Okudah have both left their Week 1 games, and not returned).
X-factor: Growth. Even before all of these injuries occurred, it was a long way up the division, and by extension, league ladder. If Alex can be patient, and make smart additions one at a time, he could be competitive in a few short years, especially if and when he starts getting some of these injured players back. For now though, it’s all about taking stock of where the team is, and finding ways to gradually improve it. That should be the goal, because the results from now aren’t going to matter much.
Projected division finish: 4th
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Caleb)
Last year’s finish: 8th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: In last year’s preview, I spoke of how big a piece Saquon Barkley was to this offense/team (Really?), and how utterly devastated the Buccaneers were when he went down. Unfortunately, 2020 was a song on repeat regarding this matter, forcing Caleb to have to scramble to once again fill the hole left behind by one of fantasy (And regular) football’s most dynamic playmakers. While his supporting cast was much better than a year previous, he still struggled with the week-to-week inconsistency that comes with losing a foundational talent. Nowhere was that ever more apparent than when, in the midst of a four-game losing streak that saw the Bucs fall over backwards into a playoff spot, having not scored more than 123 points in a game over that stretch (And the other three were all less than 112), The Bucs went up against the 1-seeded Seahawks in the First Round of the playoffs, and pasted them with 161 points (Still sans Barkley). If nothing else, it shows that Tampa Bay can certainly spool up, even when not fully healthy. This season, as the plan to re-integrate Saquon is rumored to be a slow one, Caleb acquired Cordarrelle Patterson, who should be the backup, and passing back for the Falcons, and may be able to hold him over until Saquon is truly back in force. At the top of the lineup, Goff returns again, and while the Rams paid a king’s ransom to offload their former 1st overall pick, and Detroit’s offense promises to be a moribund collection of misfit, bit-part players…oh, I have to finish that? Well, he is still a starter. Outside of him, and Patterson, every other player on offense is among the best at their positions in the league. That includes DeAndre Hopkins (When he’s not threatening to retire over a vaccine that could save his life…and then realizing how much money he would forfeit if he did, and not sticking to his principles), Deebo Samuel (Who has tantalizing talent, but an injury history that would make Jordan Reed blush), and Darren Waller, one of the league’s most inspiring success stories. On defense, it’s a unit that sports a lot of depth, going at least four deep at all but defensive line (And in fairness, Tampa rostered three of them before a season-ending injury took his best DL from him just prior to the season. Starting out at linebacker, it’s hard to make who will and won’t succeed at becoming a fantasy factor in 2021, but Caleb sure bought his tickets for the raffle. The septet of players at the position, De’Vondre Campbell, Christian Kirksey, Tae Crowder, Kwon Alexander, Divine Deablo, Anthony Hitchens, and Kenny Young, all bring something to the table. For all but Deablo, they bring experience—some more than others. In Campbell, the Bucs have the most-talented LB on Green Bay’s roster. With Kirksey and Alexander, Caleb possesses two players with a history of production when healthy, but who are attempting to make it back from previous injuries. For Hitchens, it’s declining with age, and having his role reduced by younger players. With Crowder and Young, it’s two players who have had a varying degree of success. Deablo, though his playing time figures to be limited, is one of a growing breed of linebackers who converted from safety, where he spent his college reps at Virginia Tech. Speaking of defensive backs, it’s quite possible that the Bucs have the best top-3 in the league, with Jessie Bates, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Eric Rowe. After that, only Justin Burris remains on the bench, but he can be used in a pinch. On the line, the shallowest part of the team, only Sheldon Richardson and Adam Butler remain. They should be fine, if not exceptional.
X-factor: Filling the edges of the lineup. The defensive line, the second ID spot, and RWT position on offense all need to be addressed. Those, while they may seem like small things, are the kinds of adjustments that may separate TB from the top-two teams in this division. While there’s still a gap, the Bucs are the league’s best third-place team, and once again should sneak into the playoffs at a minimum, and be right in the thick of it for a division crown in the league’s most difficult division. How he improves in light of that, could mean the difference between hoisting a division trophy, or even a league one (Though, again, not an actual one, because league members didn’t want to pitch in to buy one that would be shipped to the champion each year), and a replica of 2020. This team is really good, and is closer to the top of the division than the bottom.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Thank you for reading the 2021 divisional previews. Please also check out the 2021 Pre-Season Power Rankings, which will be available shortly.