Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Sept 12, 2021 3:55:10 GMT -5
AFC WEST
Once again the best division in the league, in terms of average place of finish, the 2020 season produced some of the most riveting storylines in league history. Two teams were historically dominant at different points of the season, and then reversed course and looked like lightweights at the drop of a feather. Another was the steadiest, though perhaps the weakest of the three, and yet went 3-0 in division…and finished second. And then there’s the team that finished at the bottom, who is positioned the best for long-term success. Yes, folks, it’s a topsy-turvy world in the AFC West, which is just a continuation of where the division has been for the last several seasons: There are usually no elite teams from the division, as they always beat up on one another, and sometimes even prevent multiple teams from going to the playoffs. While I can’t say in good faith that this is the zenith for several of those teams, it’s clear that the bar has been raised, with a Denver team that despite going 1-2 in division, finished as the #1 seed in the AFC. Now with a second division championship in hand, and with some bold off-season moves, it’s clear that Steve is making a push towards more than just a division championship. Will he be able to accomplish those lofty goals? Will Brooks re-insert himself into the AFC West mix ahead of schedule? Can Las Vegas brush off a disappointing back half of 2020? And can Daphud prove his salt as the new manager of the Chargers? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Denver Broncos (Steve)
Last year’s finish: 10th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Denver’s 2020 season will go down as one of the weirdest and most-dominant efforts in league history. I know a lot of parties are going to go check the receipts on that statement, and say, “What are you on about, Chris!? The Broncos only scored 1,594 points on the season, which was statistically speaking, only a top-10 finish a year ago by a single point. At face value, you would be right, and I would sound like an asinine fraud. However, out of the interest of being thorough, I would ask you to, as Hugh Grant’s character in The Gentlemen requests, “Play a little game with me, Raymond.” I ask this because, I truly believe that the context associated with this figure will “warp your fragile little mind(s).” Ready for it? Okay. Steve’s Broncos played well over 1/3 (More than a third because, in addition to the 4 games, his starting QBs were injured and did not return multiple times early in games) of the 2020 season with one of Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci, or no quarterback at all (Thanks for still not being vaccinated, Lamar!). The total number of points his starting QBs scored in those four games was: 16.6. Steve managed to win all but one of those games (The Week 12 division matchup against LAC, with no Jackson). If you extrapolate it further to include any game in which Steve’s QB did not finish the game, the total points scored by his QBs in those games is: 26.54. Also, Steve won all but one of those games as well (The same Jackon-less season finale). Effectively, you’re looking at a sample size close to half of the regular season in which Steve did not have a quarterback, while following all of the rules, and still finished in 10th place in points. That statistical marvel/oddity is unprecedented in the history of our league, I guarantee you. That speaks to how dominant the rest of Denver’s roster was a year ago, and gives us a peek at what his 2021 season might look like with Jackson at the helm, instead of doing the Dallas backup QB shuffle (Someone should’ve coined that and run with it Super Bowl Shuffle style, and made a bajillion buckaroos) weekly. Also, Steve started a 2nd WR named: nobody, or Austin Mack in 5 games last year, netting a total of 0.6 points from that position in those 5 games. Seriously, outside of those two positions, his team was phenomenal. Why is that relevant? Well, since the end of the regular season a year ago, Steve has lost the following players: Jakeem Grant, Jared Cook, Randall Cobb, Josh Gordon, T.J. Yeldon, A.J. Dillon, Chris Jones, Shaquill Griffin, Dante Fowler, Oshane Ximines, and Pierre Desir. Over that same period, he has added Keenan Allen, Rob Gronkowski, Ty’Son Williams, Demarcus Robinson, Travis Fulgham, Budda Baker, Dylan Moses, and Blake Lynch. Most of those names can be cut out of any kind of evaluation of meaningful value, but effectively, he traded Cook, Cobb, Dillon, and Jones, for Allen, Gronk, Baker, and Williams. Not to belabor the point too much further, but if each performs as expected, that could go down as one of the best offseasons in league history, especially for a team very much in their championship window. To break it down, the Broncos now can throw out a lineup of Jackson, David Montgomery, Allen, Diontae Johnson, Gronk, Raheem Mostert, Mercilus, Alualu, the Smiths (Not the band), Baker, Emmanuel Moseley, Barr, and McCourty. Though the defense gets a bit rough near the bottom (And concerning if Jaylon Smith doesn’t see a much larger complement of plays than he did in Week 1), there are less than a handful of teams that can match that firepower at present.
X-factor: Wide receiver and defensive depth. A constant assertion/reminder a year ago (Which Steve routinely ignored due to what I guess I’ll call, pregnancy brain for expectant dads), despite the addition of Allen, Denver very much still needs additional depth behind those two (No more Austin Mack games in 2021). Additionally, he likely needs to retool most of his defensive bench/last spot in the lineup. Those are the kind of moves that can be supplemented in free agency throughout the season, with some attention and good luck, but they’re also the types of moves that have to be made if you want to win a championship. Luckily for Steve, it didn’t cost him too much (Somehow) in the regular season a year ago, though it did in the playoffs, where a lack of points from his second wide receiver spot, and the end of his defensive lineup, only accounted for 10 points between those three players. I don’t expect lightning to strike Steve twice in the regular season, but he will certainly be rained on in the postseason if he doesn’t buy some umbrellas.
Projected division finish: 1st
Kansas City Chiefs (Brooks)
Last year’s finish: 28th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: 2020 saw Brooks’ return to the league—and a rather inauspicious one if you’re just looking at wins and losses—after being one of the best in league history prior to his departure in 2015. What transpired last year, however, was on Brooks as much as the position player pitching at the end of a 20-3 blowout baseball game is truly responsible for those extra runs to make it 24-3 in the end (Yes, statistically speaking, they do count against him, but to assign any kind of blame to that guy, instead of the previous seven pitchers who gave up 20 runs, is ridiculous). These are just the kinds of things that happen when you’re trying to properly rebuild a team that was left dormant and neglected by multiple, previous GMs (In fact, I would hesitate to say that KC has been filled by even a competent GM since Brooks initially left): You simply have to tear down, and build it from the ground up. As everyone who knows anything in this league could see, Brooks immediately put every AFC contender on alert with his moves a year ago, and has followed that up in 2021. As evidenced by his trades and picks, Brooks was not interested in making his team into a 7/8-seed just to say he was a playoff team (Which I have every confidence that he could’ve done). Instead, he focused on making big, long-term moves that would once again turn him into the power that dominated the AFC West, and the league, and ended up with him in the Canton Hall of Fame. So, he took it on the chin. Kansas City stumbled to a 3-9 record, last in the West, netted the fifth overall pick, and via a UFA Draft day trade, netted Jamarr Chase (Whose early returns notwithstanding, looks like a potentially dominant, franchise-altering piece, no matter how many stripes the balls that are thrown at him have). His selections of Joe Burrow, and Cam Akers, signing of James Robinson (One of the positively best pieces of free agent business in league history), trading for Courtland Sutton and Travis Kelce, and adding a litany of high-upside, low investment players on defense, like Kyle Dugger, Derrick Brown, Troy Reeder, Sione Takitaki, and L’Jarius Sneed, paved the way for him to be a competitive team, perhaps as soon as this season. Then, it happened as it always does: Cam Akers was injured in pre-season camp, and is out for the year. That means the Chiefs will have to rely more heavily on T.J. Hockenson, whose presence still makes this a top-half offense immediately, and highly likely a top-10 unit. That is supremely good for a team that literally possessed none of these pieces a year ago, as Brooks is responsible for each player in that lineup. The defense, however, is similarly a laggard when compared with the offense, as it was last year, but once again, Brooks was content to bring in long-term plays in Ernest Jones, and Buddy Johnson, who could be the starting inside linebackers on their respective teams within a couple of years if all goes well. That, and along with the return of 2020 COVID opt-out Dont’a Hightower, gives the team a little extra boost in the middle, but overall, it’s a slightly below average unit at present.
X-factor: Patience. Prior to Akers’ injury, I contemplated placing Brooks in first within the division. Afterwards, however, he plummets all the way down the bottom. It’s frankly unlikely that he would finish there if he did not want to again, given his aptitude to swing a lopsided trade in his favor. He is, however, also committed to process, and while he could make a few moves and turn this division into absolute chaos, if he stays on his current trajectory, he can bide his time, acquire some more free agent darlings at his leisure, and make yet another high pick in a year’s time. At that time, and with a fully healthy roster, he may be not only the best team in this division, but also in the conference. But I suspect we’ll have to wait a year to see.
Projected division finish: 4th
Las Vegas Raiders (Hunter)
Last year’s finish: 7th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: The 2020 Las Vegas Raiders were a tale of two different seasons, of Jekyll and Hyde proportions. Hunter entered last year coming off of his best season in the league to-date, and started out the 2020 season 4-0. They were humming along, with no real reason to suspect a dropoff. What instead followed was one of the most rapid and surprising instances of the bottom falling out in league history. That’s a bold statement Cotton, so let’s go to the telestrator for the blow-by-blow. Despite dropping their next game to league power Jacksonville, Las Vegas recovered the very next week with a shellacking of Green Bay to go to 5-1. But then they were drubbed by Chicago, nipped by Detroit (While failing to crack triple digits), obliterated by Minnesota (While scoring even fewer points), then getting beaten soundly by Denver, and upended by the Chargers to drop the Raiders to 5-6. In the ultimate backing into the playoffs move, the Raiders scored a win over bottom-feeder Kansas City, and were able to move the needle just enough, with a 6-6 record, to nab the 8-seed, and…a rematch with Steve’s Broncos. But, this time, partly due to Steve’s reluctance to add at the deadline, and partly because Hunter’s team woke up and chose violence, he put up nearly a 160-spot, like another former Oakland team, relegating the #1-seed Broncos to the likes of the 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks. A week later, Las Vegas fell to the Jaguars for a second time, ending his up-and-down (Definitionally) season with 7 total wins and losses apiece. But what was the cause for this? After all, Las Vegas were my favorites to win the division, as well as other projection services. First off, bruising running back Kerryon Johnson was relegated from a starting role, to the short stick in a three-way-RBBC, involving a man over a decade his senior, and a rookie. Likewise, Hunter’s San Francisco cohort (Jimmy Garoppolo and Tevin Coleman) missed most of the year with injuries, and former 1st Overall Rookie Draft pick N’Keal Harry was so ineffective throughout his two seasons in the NFL to-date, that one of the most wide receiver-needy teams in the league actively floated the possibility of cutting him earlier this off-season. Defensively, 2019 rookie standout Drue Tranquill was lost for the season after one game, and fellow linebacker Alec Ogletree was cut by the Giants, only to see meaningless action across six games for the “cross-town” Jets. In totality, losing a quarterback, both of his top-two running backs, two of his top-four linebackers, all in the same off-season, would usually represent a first-to-last type of doomsday scenario in that team’s division. While the Raiders did not fold, as Hunter made some key free agent pickups and trades, making use of his considerable remaining stable of talent, it was clearly not the season that Hunter (Or I) anticipated, and brings into question what is salvageable going forward? Well, for one, Laviska Shenault. While it should be “Viska Season” early and often in Jacksonville, it remains to be seen what level of clown show Urban Meyer will be as a pro head coach? In fact, outside of Shenault, Hunter has two other receivers who should be excellent in 2021: Panthers Robbie Anderson and D.J. Moore. Beyond those three, only the previously highly-regarded Harry, now on IR, is rostered. So it’s an excellent group, but short on depth, even more so due to the two Carolina players sharing bye weeks. Myles Gaskin begins the season as Miami’s RBBC leader, and should turn that into significant fantasy return, as he did a year ago. And though Kerryon Johnson may not be on a roster at present, old hand Le’Veon Bell may now return to relevance if he’s the one who makes it out of the human pit of running backs that Baltimore just signed, due to their biblical plague at the position of late. Defensively, the Raiders are still strong in the middle, with Jerome Baker, Joe Schobert, and Eric Kendricks in the fold, and the returning Drue Tranquill. They’re also fairly strong in the defensive backfield, with Terrell Edmunds, Quandre Diggs, and Jimmie Ward. Now, the bad: the defensive line is nothing to write home about. It’s a decidedly average unit, with only two members (Ed Oliver, and Sebastian Joseph-Day. Also, I suppose Eric Ebron is a decent option at tight end, but he is not the same player he was several years ago. Lastly, and the most dire situation, is the quarterback, 39-year old Ben Roethlisberger. While he should have an absolute embarrassment of receiving options at his disposal, he showed real, noticeable steps back last year, especially in the case of his arm strength. A lot of times he just reached back, and it wasn’t there. He also is a sitting target, no longer able to get out of the way, behind a porous Pittsburgh line.
X-factor: Health and depth. Sure, I’ll bite. I know this is the same thing as a year ago, and once again, it’s the Raiders’ biggest problem. The starting lineup is still pretty superior to most teams in the league, and depth can certainly present itself from the group of current bench players (Minus top-defensive backup L.J. Fort, who is on I.R. with a torn ACL). But if you were to ask me how much better a team like Las Vegas is over the average team, depth considered, my answer is…this once again might be the 8-seed/16th-best team in the league. So, it’s incumbent upon Hunter to make the necessary bench additions in case he should once again face the injury woes of a year ago.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Los Angeles Chargers (Daphud)
Last year’s finish: 6th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: In Trey’s swan song season, he made waves in a number of ways. Despite not winning the division, he held a 3-0 record against the AFC West, winning the top-Wild Card spot, and turning in an all-time epic comeback against Chris’ Bengals in the First Round of the playoffs, erasing a 50+-point deficit on Monday night with only J.D. McKissic, Micah Hyde, and Gabriel Davis still going. No such performance was replicated the following week, as he managed 50 fewer points against Sal. Overall, it was a season of absolutes: absolutely too many wide receivers, and absolutely nowhere near enough linebackers. It’s a gauntlet that Trey threw down going out the door, and one that Daphud has seemingly picked up willingly, apparently going with the ‘hold my beer,’ sentiment, further adding to the number of wide receivers (And offensive players) on his roster, while simultaneously adding only a net +2 of linebackers—rookie reserve backer Monty Hall, and Denver EDGE backup Malik Reed. While it is surely nice to have seven wide receivers on a roster, this is the most unbalanced offensive/defensive team in the league at the moment, by a wide margin. While he has made several entreaties recently, by requesting a trade of WRs for LBs, it seemed that was against his modus operandi in the off-season. Just for shits and giggles though, let’s look at what his starting lineup (One with three receivers, presumably) would look like. As the Charges possess one of the very best WRs (And WR corps) in the league, Tyreek Hill would definitely be in the starting lineup, as would Kenny Golladay, and Chase Claypool. On the bench—as of now—are Gabriel Davis, Darius Slayton, Jalen Guyton, and Anthony Miller. At running back, the drafting of Michael Carter is a great play for both now and later, but the now may be a little delayed (Or at least, be a little less meaningful as we thought), as New York’s coaching staff has apparently been reticent to give him the more of the role as lead back of the RBBC, as Tevin Coleman will begin the season as the Jets’ starter. Daphud does have the other back in the committee, however, in Ty Johnson, so if by some reason Coleman fumbles the lead duties, he does have a 2/3 chance at having the new lead back in hand. Jerick McKinnon is also a good no risk bet, as if he can stay healthy, he might be able to siphon off so of the touches from Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Kansas City. At quarterback, Derek Carr returns after a career-year efficiency-wise, as he didn’t even throw an interception until around mid-season. If he can replicate that kind of performance, particularly while pushing it downfield, there’s a chance that he can enter that upper echelon at QB. At tight end, Jonnu Smith is a decent play, though unlike in Tennesse, he’ll now be needing to split more of his snaps/passing routes run with fellow New England signee Hunter Henry. Defensively, Daphud is in much worse shape. First off, none of the linebackers, at present, project to get much time on the field, outside of Elandon Roberts, whose career-high contribution of 7.3 PPG last year was serviceable for a linebacker, but not for someone who projects to be the linchpin of the defense. Outside of him, Carter and Akeem Davis-Gaither may be able to pick up some slack, but it’s among the very worst LB corps in the league. On the defensive line, Arik Armstead returns, and is coming off his most-disappointing fantasy season in years (Which is still above average). He’s joined by Ifeadi Odenigbo, who was recently cut by the Giants, but was picked up by Cleveland and put on their practice squad. Those are the only two DL on the roster. At defensive back, the Chargers are in better shape, with the immediately fantasy relevant Justin Reid (Among the best fantasy safeties in the game), Micah Hyde, who is capable of big weeks (Clearly, as referenced above), though infrequently as of the last few seasons, and Eddie Jackson, who has as much blow up potential as any other DB in this world (I can’t say about DBs from other planets).
X-factor: Balancing the roster/Defense. This is one of the hardest teams I’ve ever had to rate, as the offense is quite good, but the defense is so far gone that it would take a massive investment to upgrade it to the requisite quality to compete, particularly at linebacker, that it seems unlikely to occur/be realistic, especially at this juncture of the season. While Daphud certainly has the capital in receivers, it is once again noted the reluctance that was shown all off-season to move any of the Chargers’ wide receivers was absolute, and may come back to cost him. If he can spring a few quality linebackers and active defensive lineman away from elsewhere, there’s still a chance, but it needs to happen quickly.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Thank you for reading this, the seventh of our Divisional Previews. The eighth and final in the series of Divisional Previews—the NFC South, will drop tomorrow. I will also publish the Pre-Season Power Rankings at that time.
Once again the best division in the league, in terms of average place of finish, the 2020 season produced some of the most riveting storylines in league history. Two teams were historically dominant at different points of the season, and then reversed course and looked like lightweights at the drop of a feather. Another was the steadiest, though perhaps the weakest of the three, and yet went 3-0 in division…and finished second. And then there’s the team that finished at the bottom, who is positioned the best for long-term success. Yes, folks, it’s a topsy-turvy world in the AFC West, which is just a continuation of where the division has been for the last several seasons: There are usually no elite teams from the division, as they always beat up on one another, and sometimes even prevent multiple teams from going to the playoffs. While I can’t say in good faith that this is the zenith for several of those teams, it’s clear that the bar has been raised, with a Denver team that despite going 1-2 in division, finished as the #1 seed in the AFC. Now with a second division championship in hand, and with some bold off-season moves, it’s clear that Steve is making a push towards more than just a division championship. Will he be able to accomplish those lofty goals? Will Brooks re-insert himself into the AFC West mix ahead of schedule? Can Las Vegas brush off a disappointing back half of 2020? And can Daphud prove his salt as the new manager of the Chargers? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Denver Broncos (Steve)
Last year’s finish: 10th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Denver’s 2020 season will go down as one of the weirdest and most-dominant efforts in league history. I know a lot of parties are going to go check the receipts on that statement, and say, “What are you on about, Chris!? The Broncos only scored 1,594 points on the season, which was statistically speaking, only a top-10 finish a year ago by a single point. At face value, you would be right, and I would sound like an asinine fraud. However, out of the interest of being thorough, I would ask you to, as Hugh Grant’s character in The Gentlemen requests, “Play a little game with me, Raymond.” I ask this because, I truly believe that the context associated with this figure will “warp your fragile little mind(s).” Ready for it? Okay. Steve’s Broncos played well over 1/3 (More than a third because, in addition to the 4 games, his starting QBs were injured and did not return multiple times early in games) of the 2020 season with one of Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci, or no quarterback at all (Thanks for still not being vaccinated, Lamar!). The total number of points his starting QBs scored in those four games was: 16.6. Steve managed to win all but one of those games (The Week 12 division matchup against LAC, with no Jackson). If you extrapolate it further to include any game in which Steve’s QB did not finish the game, the total points scored by his QBs in those games is: 26.54. Also, Steve won all but one of those games as well (The same Jackon-less season finale). Effectively, you’re looking at a sample size close to half of the regular season in which Steve did not have a quarterback, while following all of the rules, and still finished in 10th place in points. That statistical marvel/oddity is unprecedented in the history of our league, I guarantee you. That speaks to how dominant the rest of Denver’s roster was a year ago, and gives us a peek at what his 2021 season might look like with Jackson at the helm, instead of doing the Dallas backup QB shuffle (Someone should’ve coined that and run with it Super Bowl Shuffle style, and made a bajillion buckaroos) weekly. Also, Steve started a 2nd WR named: nobody, or Austin Mack in 5 games last year, netting a total of 0.6 points from that position in those 5 games. Seriously, outside of those two positions, his team was phenomenal. Why is that relevant? Well, since the end of the regular season a year ago, Steve has lost the following players: Jakeem Grant, Jared Cook, Randall Cobb, Josh Gordon, T.J. Yeldon, A.J. Dillon, Chris Jones, Shaquill Griffin, Dante Fowler, Oshane Ximines, and Pierre Desir. Over that same period, he has added Keenan Allen, Rob Gronkowski, Ty’Son Williams, Demarcus Robinson, Travis Fulgham, Budda Baker, Dylan Moses, and Blake Lynch. Most of those names can be cut out of any kind of evaluation of meaningful value, but effectively, he traded Cook, Cobb, Dillon, and Jones, for Allen, Gronk, Baker, and Williams. Not to belabor the point too much further, but if each performs as expected, that could go down as one of the best offseasons in league history, especially for a team very much in their championship window. To break it down, the Broncos now can throw out a lineup of Jackson, David Montgomery, Allen, Diontae Johnson, Gronk, Raheem Mostert, Mercilus, Alualu, the Smiths (Not the band), Baker, Emmanuel Moseley, Barr, and McCourty. Though the defense gets a bit rough near the bottom (And concerning if Jaylon Smith doesn’t see a much larger complement of plays than he did in Week 1), there are less than a handful of teams that can match that firepower at present.
X-factor: Wide receiver and defensive depth. A constant assertion/reminder a year ago (Which Steve routinely ignored due to what I guess I’ll call, pregnancy brain for expectant dads), despite the addition of Allen, Denver very much still needs additional depth behind those two (No more Austin Mack games in 2021). Additionally, he likely needs to retool most of his defensive bench/last spot in the lineup. Those are the kind of moves that can be supplemented in free agency throughout the season, with some attention and good luck, but they’re also the types of moves that have to be made if you want to win a championship. Luckily for Steve, it didn’t cost him too much (Somehow) in the regular season a year ago, though it did in the playoffs, where a lack of points from his second wide receiver spot, and the end of his defensive lineup, only accounted for 10 points between those three players. I don’t expect lightning to strike Steve twice in the regular season, but he will certainly be rained on in the postseason if he doesn’t buy some umbrellas.
Projected division finish: 1st
Kansas City Chiefs (Brooks)
Last year’s finish: 28th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: 2020 saw Brooks’ return to the league—and a rather inauspicious one if you’re just looking at wins and losses—after being one of the best in league history prior to his departure in 2015. What transpired last year, however, was on Brooks as much as the position player pitching at the end of a 20-3 blowout baseball game is truly responsible for those extra runs to make it 24-3 in the end (Yes, statistically speaking, they do count against him, but to assign any kind of blame to that guy, instead of the previous seven pitchers who gave up 20 runs, is ridiculous). These are just the kinds of things that happen when you’re trying to properly rebuild a team that was left dormant and neglected by multiple, previous GMs (In fact, I would hesitate to say that KC has been filled by even a competent GM since Brooks initially left): You simply have to tear down, and build it from the ground up. As everyone who knows anything in this league could see, Brooks immediately put every AFC contender on alert with his moves a year ago, and has followed that up in 2021. As evidenced by his trades and picks, Brooks was not interested in making his team into a 7/8-seed just to say he was a playoff team (Which I have every confidence that he could’ve done). Instead, he focused on making big, long-term moves that would once again turn him into the power that dominated the AFC West, and the league, and ended up with him in the Canton Hall of Fame. So, he took it on the chin. Kansas City stumbled to a 3-9 record, last in the West, netted the fifth overall pick, and via a UFA Draft day trade, netted Jamarr Chase (Whose early returns notwithstanding, looks like a potentially dominant, franchise-altering piece, no matter how many stripes the balls that are thrown at him have). His selections of Joe Burrow, and Cam Akers, signing of James Robinson (One of the positively best pieces of free agent business in league history), trading for Courtland Sutton and Travis Kelce, and adding a litany of high-upside, low investment players on defense, like Kyle Dugger, Derrick Brown, Troy Reeder, Sione Takitaki, and L’Jarius Sneed, paved the way for him to be a competitive team, perhaps as soon as this season. Then, it happened as it always does: Cam Akers was injured in pre-season camp, and is out for the year. That means the Chiefs will have to rely more heavily on T.J. Hockenson, whose presence still makes this a top-half offense immediately, and highly likely a top-10 unit. That is supremely good for a team that literally possessed none of these pieces a year ago, as Brooks is responsible for each player in that lineup. The defense, however, is similarly a laggard when compared with the offense, as it was last year, but once again, Brooks was content to bring in long-term plays in Ernest Jones, and Buddy Johnson, who could be the starting inside linebackers on their respective teams within a couple of years if all goes well. That, and along with the return of 2020 COVID opt-out Dont’a Hightower, gives the team a little extra boost in the middle, but overall, it’s a slightly below average unit at present.
X-factor: Patience. Prior to Akers’ injury, I contemplated placing Brooks in first within the division. Afterwards, however, he plummets all the way down the bottom. It’s frankly unlikely that he would finish there if he did not want to again, given his aptitude to swing a lopsided trade in his favor. He is, however, also committed to process, and while he could make a few moves and turn this division into absolute chaos, if he stays on his current trajectory, he can bide his time, acquire some more free agent darlings at his leisure, and make yet another high pick in a year’s time. At that time, and with a fully healthy roster, he may be not only the best team in this division, but also in the conference. But I suspect we’ll have to wait a year to see.
Projected division finish: 4th
Las Vegas Raiders (Hunter)
Last year’s finish: 7th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: The 2020 Las Vegas Raiders were a tale of two different seasons, of Jekyll and Hyde proportions. Hunter entered last year coming off of his best season in the league to-date, and started out the 2020 season 4-0. They were humming along, with no real reason to suspect a dropoff. What instead followed was one of the most rapid and surprising instances of the bottom falling out in league history. That’s a bold statement Cotton, so let’s go to the telestrator for the blow-by-blow. Despite dropping their next game to league power Jacksonville, Las Vegas recovered the very next week with a shellacking of Green Bay to go to 5-1. But then they were drubbed by Chicago, nipped by Detroit (While failing to crack triple digits), obliterated by Minnesota (While scoring even fewer points), then getting beaten soundly by Denver, and upended by the Chargers to drop the Raiders to 5-6. In the ultimate backing into the playoffs move, the Raiders scored a win over bottom-feeder Kansas City, and were able to move the needle just enough, with a 6-6 record, to nab the 8-seed, and…a rematch with Steve’s Broncos. But, this time, partly due to Steve’s reluctance to add at the deadline, and partly because Hunter’s team woke up and chose violence, he put up nearly a 160-spot, like another former Oakland team, relegating the #1-seed Broncos to the likes of the 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks. A week later, Las Vegas fell to the Jaguars for a second time, ending his up-and-down (Definitionally) season with 7 total wins and losses apiece. But what was the cause for this? After all, Las Vegas were my favorites to win the division, as well as other projection services. First off, bruising running back Kerryon Johnson was relegated from a starting role, to the short stick in a three-way-RBBC, involving a man over a decade his senior, and a rookie. Likewise, Hunter’s San Francisco cohort (Jimmy Garoppolo and Tevin Coleman) missed most of the year with injuries, and former 1st Overall Rookie Draft pick N’Keal Harry was so ineffective throughout his two seasons in the NFL to-date, that one of the most wide receiver-needy teams in the league actively floated the possibility of cutting him earlier this off-season. Defensively, 2019 rookie standout Drue Tranquill was lost for the season after one game, and fellow linebacker Alec Ogletree was cut by the Giants, only to see meaningless action across six games for the “cross-town” Jets. In totality, losing a quarterback, both of his top-two running backs, two of his top-four linebackers, all in the same off-season, would usually represent a first-to-last type of doomsday scenario in that team’s division. While the Raiders did not fold, as Hunter made some key free agent pickups and trades, making use of his considerable remaining stable of talent, it was clearly not the season that Hunter (Or I) anticipated, and brings into question what is salvageable going forward? Well, for one, Laviska Shenault. While it should be “Viska Season” early and often in Jacksonville, it remains to be seen what level of clown show Urban Meyer will be as a pro head coach? In fact, outside of Shenault, Hunter has two other receivers who should be excellent in 2021: Panthers Robbie Anderson and D.J. Moore. Beyond those three, only the previously highly-regarded Harry, now on IR, is rostered. So it’s an excellent group, but short on depth, even more so due to the two Carolina players sharing bye weeks. Myles Gaskin begins the season as Miami’s RBBC leader, and should turn that into significant fantasy return, as he did a year ago. And though Kerryon Johnson may not be on a roster at present, old hand Le’Veon Bell may now return to relevance if he’s the one who makes it out of the human pit of running backs that Baltimore just signed, due to their biblical plague at the position of late. Defensively, the Raiders are still strong in the middle, with Jerome Baker, Joe Schobert, and Eric Kendricks in the fold, and the returning Drue Tranquill. They’re also fairly strong in the defensive backfield, with Terrell Edmunds, Quandre Diggs, and Jimmie Ward. Now, the bad: the defensive line is nothing to write home about. It’s a decidedly average unit, with only two members (Ed Oliver, and Sebastian Joseph-Day. Also, I suppose Eric Ebron is a decent option at tight end, but he is not the same player he was several years ago. Lastly, and the most dire situation, is the quarterback, 39-year old Ben Roethlisberger. While he should have an absolute embarrassment of receiving options at his disposal, he showed real, noticeable steps back last year, especially in the case of his arm strength. A lot of times he just reached back, and it wasn’t there. He also is a sitting target, no longer able to get out of the way, behind a porous Pittsburgh line.
X-factor: Health and depth. Sure, I’ll bite. I know this is the same thing as a year ago, and once again, it’s the Raiders’ biggest problem. The starting lineup is still pretty superior to most teams in the league, and depth can certainly present itself from the group of current bench players (Minus top-defensive backup L.J. Fort, who is on I.R. with a torn ACL). But if you were to ask me how much better a team like Las Vegas is over the average team, depth considered, my answer is…this once again might be the 8-seed/16th-best team in the league. So, it’s incumbent upon Hunter to make the necessary bench additions in case he should once again face the injury woes of a year ago.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Los Angeles Chargers (Daphud)
Last year’s finish: 6th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: In Trey’s swan song season, he made waves in a number of ways. Despite not winning the division, he held a 3-0 record against the AFC West, winning the top-Wild Card spot, and turning in an all-time epic comeback against Chris’ Bengals in the First Round of the playoffs, erasing a 50+-point deficit on Monday night with only J.D. McKissic, Micah Hyde, and Gabriel Davis still going. No such performance was replicated the following week, as he managed 50 fewer points against Sal. Overall, it was a season of absolutes: absolutely too many wide receivers, and absolutely nowhere near enough linebackers. It’s a gauntlet that Trey threw down going out the door, and one that Daphud has seemingly picked up willingly, apparently going with the ‘hold my beer,’ sentiment, further adding to the number of wide receivers (And offensive players) on his roster, while simultaneously adding only a net +2 of linebackers—rookie reserve backer Monty Hall, and Denver EDGE backup Malik Reed. While it is surely nice to have seven wide receivers on a roster, this is the most unbalanced offensive/defensive team in the league at the moment, by a wide margin. While he has made several entreaties recently, by requesting a trade of WRs for LBs, it seemed that was against his modus operandi in the off-season. Just for shits and giggles though, let’s look at what his starting lineup (One with three receivers, presumably) would look like. As the Charges possess one of the very best WRs (And WR corps) in the league, Tyreek Hill would definitely be in the starting lineup, as would Kenny Golladay, and Chase Claypool. On the bench—as of now—are Gabriel Davis, Darius Slayton, Jalen Guyton, and Anthony Miller. At running back, the drafting of Michael Carter is a great play for both now and later, but the now may be a little delayed (Or at least, be a little less meaningful as we thought), as New York’s coaching staff has apparently been reticent to give him the more of the role as lead back of the RBBC, as Tevin Coleman will begin the season as the Jets’ starter. Daphud does have the other back in the committee, however, in Ty Johnson, so if by some reason Coleman fumbles the lead duties, he does have a 2/3 chance at having the new lead back in hand. Jerick McKinnon is also a good no risk bet, as if he can stay healthy, he might be able to siphon off so of the touches from Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Kansas City. At quarterback, Derek Carr returns after a career-year efficiency-wise, as he didn’t even throw an interception until around mid-season. If he can replicate that kind of performance, particularly while pushing it downfield, there’s a chance that he can enter that upper echelon at QB. At tight end, Jonnu Smith is a decent play, though unlike in Tennesse, he’ll now be needing to split more of his snaps/passing routes run with fellow New England signee Hunter Henry. Defensively, Daphud is in much worse shape. First off, none of the linebackers, at present, project to get much time on the field, outside of Elandon Roberts, whose career-high contribution of 7.3 PPG last year was serviceable for a linebacker, but not for someone who projects to be the linchpin of the defense. Outside of him, Carter and Akeem Davis-Gaither may be able to pick up some slack, but it’s among the very worst LB corps in the league. On the defensive line, Arik Armstead returns, and is coming off his most-disappointing fantasy season in years (Which is still above average). He’s joined by Ifeadi Odenigbo, who was recently cut by the Giants, but was picked up by Cleveland and put on their practice squad. Those are the only two DL on the roster. At defensive back, the Chargers are in better shape, with the immediately fantasy relevant Justin Reid (Among the best fantasy safeties in the game), Micah Hyde, who is capable of big weeks (Clearly, as referenced above), though infrequently as of the last few seasons, and Eddie Jackson, who has as much blow up potential as any other DB in this world (I can’t say about DBs from other planets).
X-factor: Balancing the roster/Defense. This is one of the hardest teams I’ve ever had to rate, as the offense is quite good, but the defense is so far gone that it would take a massive investment to upgrade it to the requisite quality to compete, particularly at linebacker, that it seems unlikely to occur/be realistic, especially at this juncture of the season. While Daphud certainly has the capital in receivers, it is once again noted the reluctance that was shown all off-season to move any of the Chargers’ wide receivers was absolute, and may come back to cost him. If he can spring a few quality linebackers and active defensive lineman away from elsewhere, there’s still a chance, but it needs to happen quickly.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Thank you for reading this, the seventh of our Divisional Previews. The eighth and final in the series of Divisional Previews—the NFC South, will drop tomorrow. I will also publish the Pre-Season Power Rankings at that time.