Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Sept 11, 2021 2:17:36 GMT -5
AFC EAST
In 2020, the AFC East continued the tradition of having three teams, all playoff sides, scrap and fight each other for positioning (Though the fourth, Miami, fell off the map, dropping four wins off their 2019 division championship total) in division, and in the conference. For the second year in a row, Sal’s Bills were not the victors. This time, that honor was bestowed upon Travis’ Jets, who swept the division, and headed into the playoffs as the #3 seed. This year, both Buffalo and New England have buffed back up, resplendent in their chances of toppling New York from atop the division. It should be another three-team race to the finish line once again, and unlike a year ago, it may end up with one party of the three not making the postseason. Will Buffalo restore a half-decade dynasty? Can New England nab that elusive division title? Or will the team from the Big Apple (Or in the bordering state that everyone loves to rag on) keep the moniker of, ‘Division Champ,’ and start a run of success of his own? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Buffalo Bills (Sal)
Last year’s finish: 2nd (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Since his entry into the league, Sal has mostly been the class of the division from the jump, turning around a team that was middle-of-the-road into a four-time (And four-straight) division champion, and twice (Including this past year) has finished Super Bowl runner up. But each of the last two years, his divisional dominance has been, at a minimum, put on hold, with Castle (the former MIA) winning each of the last three games in 2019, to go from last-to-first, and win the division, and Travis building what was a good team for several years into a statistical top-10 side a year ago (Well technically, 11th, but also, Sal finished in 9th, about ten points ahead of NYJ, and was still too games back). Sal’s 2021 team looks very similar to the one he fielded in 2020 (Whether that be Week 1, or by Week 17), with two main differences: 1. Sal swapped 2020 First Rounders Henry Ruggs and Kenneth Murray Jr. with Minnesota for Amari Cooper and Mack Wilson, and 2. He acquired Jamal Adams from Seattle. Those trades have elevated the Bills’ potential significantly, and are a rare case in which a reigning conference champion can add multiple former All-Pros to his team in an off-season. Imagining Cooper in an offense with Matt Stafford, Aaron Jones, Mike Williams, 2020 out-of-nowhere fantasy darling Robert Tonyan, and Cole Beasley is pretty scary—especially after last night’s season-opening performance, in which he went off. In addition to those names, Sal added A.J. Dillon in a trade, who looks to get more run than in year-1 due to the free agency departure of Jamaal Williams, as Green Bay refuses to ever let Aaron Jones receive a full workload (Though there is ample evidence that doing so keeps running backs healthier). Beyond those two is Giovani Bernard, who was a scat back of much repute in the middle of the last decade, but whose star faded well before his 30th birthday, which he is still somehow short of (And I promise, that’s not a joke about his diminutive size). While he is now apparently Tom Brady’s 3rd down back of choice, on an explosive offense, he’s no better than the 5th option when on the field, so I am not certain how much upside that assignment brings him. He does, however, lead the league in moustache game, by a long margin. At wide receiver, only Marquez Valdes-Scantling, now in a crowded Green Bay receiving corps, Cam Sims (Who is the beneficiary of today’s Curtis Samuel news), and Freddie Swain are behind those first three. But, at the moment, the former of those two should fare well enough to hold the fort if pressed into action. Ultimately, it’s a borderline top-10 unit, and probably on the good side of that.
Defense, however, has always been the less important side for Sal, though you would be pressed to say that this isn’t one of his best units. At defensive line, he sports the veteran Calais Campbell, who’s still giving out good mileage at 35, and Josh Sweat, who broke out a year ago, and should be among the most-productive ends in the game once again. At linebacker, it’s a strong pairing of Shaq Thompson and A.J. Johnson, with Mack Wilson—still among the most-talented young LBs on Cleveland’s roster (And somehow only 23), and Alec Ogletree, who may get some run in the interim with declining veteran Danny Trevathan missing from action for at least the first part of the season. At defensive back, it’s the same story, with a top-two pairing of Adams and Adrian Phillips among the best in the league. Where there is an element of concern, however, is the bench, with only Carter Coughlin, Garret Wallow, an unemployed Avery Williamson, Terrell Burgess, and Brandon Stephens in reserve. At this moment, that’s among the worst bench units in the league, and points at some rather serious depth issues on the defensive side of the ball. Sal, however, has a history of being among the best (And first) at finding under-the-radar talent, and likes to swing big on those bench spots. As the year goes on though, and injuries happen/roles change, he will likely fill this group out more thoroughly, as evidenced by the long list of players who did not make it on his cap penalty section.
X-factor: Defensive depth. Right now, it seems like Sal is happy with his starting unit, as he only has three non-rookies on his defensive bench, and no extra DL. While Williamson may be picked up off the street and fall into a starting spot at some point, the others are anyone’s guess. I would have to imagine that once again, once we get deeper into the year, Sal will reinforce that group with names that are more ready to contribute now, and make Buffalo once again the class of the AFC East.
Projected division finish: 1st
Miami Dolphins (Ferny)
Last year’s finish: 31st (Division: 4th)
Outlook: 2020 was a one-and-done season for Darrell, who never really applied himself to the league, despite a clear knowledge of the format. That, as well as the roster he was left with, when Castle decided to call it quits after 2019’s thrilling division championship run (As mentioned above—though it was a fluky result, borne out of how down the AFC East was, rather than how good his team was). While the Dolphins possessed talented pieces—namely A.J. Brown and Za’Darius Smith, and Darrell additions of Jalen Hurts, and Chase Young, there just weren’t enough pieces to make a functional lineup, and as a result, Miami fell back down the division latter to an AFC East-worst 2-10. For Ferny, that dismal performance helped him add the premier tight end in—well, possibly ever (In terms of draft pedigree/hype). Though I will refuse to canonize him/rank him among the league’s best before he ever takes a competitive snap, but his presence is a welcome one for Miami—especially as, outside of quarterback Ryan Tannehill (Who is experiencing a late-career resurgence), and the aforementioned dynamo wideout, Brown, there is very little to write home about on this offensive roster. A league-high six rookies are on that side of the ball, and outside of Pitts, none really merit writing about as of now. That said, Jaret Patterson and Larry Rountree could theoretically get some run if injuries happen to those above them on their respective depth charts. They are likely exactly what Ferny figured when he acquired them though: long-term prospects. Veterans Keelan Cole, Mo Alie-Cox, and Byron Pringle also occupy spots on this roster, but none of them are the type of player, at this point in time, who is going to have a big impact. Defensively, it’s clear that Ferny had a clear strategy: defensive line and EDGE, as he traded Jalen Hurts and a rookie 2nd for Nick Bosa, Javon Kinlaw, and Leonard Floyd—a curious trade on its face, given the value of young quarterbacks in this league, and that Miami already had five defensive linemen on their roster (Now seven). Ultimately, those options are very good (Outside of the now retired Jurrell Casey), and in fact, this DL-cohort is almost certainly the best in the league from a talent perspective. But, an educated guess is that those DL/EDGE acquisitions will win Ferny approximately zero more games in 2021 on their own. At linebacker, Miami sports quite likely the worst group in the league, with only Smith, Floyd, and 2021 draft and stash option Cameron McCrone. The defensive backfield, however, is a different story, with solid names like Mike Hilton, Jaquiski Tartt, Jason Verrett, and Justin Coleman. By no means is it a top-10, or even top-half group, but at least this position won’t embarrass Ferny on a weekly basis.
X-factor: Activity/Building for the long-term. There is no substitute for effort in this league, or in life, and this league’s history alone is replete with itinerant GMs who dot our record books. Ferny would do well to learn the lessons that they did not, especially as, many of those GMs were replacements for itinerant GMs themselves. What he does possess, unlike many of those before him, is a wealth of fantasy knowledge, some young offensive impact players, an overabundance of DL talent (From which he should definitely trade to even out this roster—though it won’t net him quite the player back that he traded away), and build for a future here, as this team is transparently the worst in this division by a large margin, and non-competitive for 2021 in its current state.
Projected division finish: 4th
New England Patriots (Chris)
Last year’s finish: 15th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: First and foremost, before I get to New England’s projections for this year, I thought I would pass along well wishes for Chris, who is currently in the hospital with COVID. Chris has been in this league since before I joined, and I’m sure we all wish him a speedy recovery, so that he can get back to doing something admittedly less important: playing spreadsheet football with us. Looking back on last year, it is difficult to evaluate the Patriots’ season. First off, Chris’ best defender, C.J. Mosely, became quite likely the most-consequential COVID opt-out league-wide, leaving a team that was ready to compete without one of its biggest players on the eve of the season. Though Chris made somewhat of an effort to fill the spot, not a lot is available at the linebacker position at that juncture of the off-season, and consequently, he was left with plugging and playing various free agents and rookies, who by-and-large, didn’t really have a noticeable impact. Furthermore, demotions, and injuries plagued the Pats, with at the time, promising second-year WR Kelvin Harmon, who was looking to build on a solid rookie campaign, going down with an ACL tear and missing the year, and both Dalvin Cook and David Njoku (Who was relegated to third on the Browns’ TE depth chart) missing multiple games with injury. It left an offense that was also light on depth trying to fill from within, which held New England, a playoff team at 7-5, from truly achieving its potential. Between Matt Ryan constantly having to play in comeback mode late, and letting Dalvin Cook (And D.K. Metcalf the beneficiary of letting Russ cook for the first half of the year), there was a lot to like from this offense. Defensively, it was more of a mixed bag, with both the defensive line and backfields playing well (Including several rookies like Trevon Diggs), but outside of recent breakout player Shaquil Barrett, a black hole in the middle. Ultimately, those holes were apparent, when Jacksonville won their playoff matchup by nearly 80. This year, it’s mostly the same roster, but also, with some clear upgrades all over the roster. At the top of the order (To borrow a baseball term), there’s a new sheriff in town, and his name is Kirk Cousins. While he has the appearance of a rental with that contract, and many can take shots at him for his vaccination status/chances of being forced to miss game time because of it, few can say that he hasn’t been a well above-average fantasy performer at the position for at least the last half-decade. While his play vacillates, he tends to be an overlooked and underrated commodity (For example, even though last season was his worst year statistically since 2017, he still managed to score 22 PPG, good for 11th among all QBs. Given where Matt Ryan ended up last year, it’s a tangible upgrade, provided Cousins doesn’t come down with an entirely preventable virus at some point…again. At running back, Dalvin Cook is right up there with the McCaffreys, Kamaras, and Henrys, and should represent one of the very best players in our league once again, if healthy. His understudy, Alexander Mattinson, also gets a fair amount of run, and is also on the Patriots’ roster if he should go down. He’s a rather low-level flex play, but can break a big game or two, even without a Cook injury. At wideout, the addition of Will Fuller to the sensational Metcalf gives New England one of the best 1-2 punches out there—once again, provided that Fuller, who is missing Week 1 due to a PED suspension, is able to provide him with the best quality in a player: availability. Njoku returns at TE in an absolutely stacked Browns offense, so there’s no telling how and how often he’ll figure in. The bench is almost entirely comprised of bit-part players, at best, so it’s once again a concern should things go awry. Defensively, Chris brought in Cameron Jordan, Quincy Williams, and Khalil Mack, and with the return of Mosely, all the sudden, this becomes a pretty good starting unit. While just like the offense, the bench is pretty light on spare parts, Trey Hendrickson, Avonte Maddox, and Terez Hall (Once off of the PUP) bring at least some semblance of a role to the table. The defensive backfield, with Diggs, Tre Flowers, and C.J. Henderson, presents some upside—especially when Diggs is playing with his hair on fire, as he was in the opener. When healthy, it’s inside the top-half of starting defenses.
X-factor: Depth. A serious concern last year could rear its head once again. While backup wide receiver and linebacker spots must be improved, the majority of pieces are in place to make another run into the playoffs, and that’s just what New England should do. That said, without more reinforcements on the bench, this could go south quickly if injuries or COVID-19 strike once more. Hopefully, in that event, the additions that Chris made over the off-season will buy him some leeway.
Projected division finish: 2nd
New York Jets (Travis)
Last year’s finish: 12th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: According to the metrics, New York has fielded the best team in the AFC East each of the last two years, but finished third in 2019, before going on a rampage in 2020, winning all three AFC East division games. While there were some problems offensively (Namely at wide receiver and tight end), the Jets fielded one of the very best defensive units in the league, finishing eighth overall by that measure. Offensively, it was the Arizona running backs (Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds) alongside Adam Thielen, when healthy, who drove the bus. But outside of them, there was not another consistent, top-performer for the Jets. While Ryan “Fitzmagic” Fitzpatrick played mostly lights out, he got benched for a significantly less effective Tua Tagovailoa, who went from being a undoubtedly First overall selection, to a starter whose owner is openly looking to replace him within a span 20 months. Zach Pascal, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Damiere Byrd all did their best to cover for lack of receiving depth, but none were particularly effective in that pursuit. The same was true for Ertz, and his backups Adam Shaheen and Ross Dwelley. But while this recap has started to take on the feel of a wake, it’s time to remember that the Jets went 9-3, and to celebrate the unit that got them there. Defensively, they were led by Bobby Wagner, Jamie Collins, Anthony Harris, Josh Bynes (Both of the previous two acquired in separate deals with CIN, at a fraction of the cost of the value they produced), Aaron Donald, Romeo Okwara, and Kyzir White. That group was fantastic when all on the fantasy field together. Every single one of those players returns for New York, though Okwara is now officially a linebacker, and he’s been replaced on the line by Davon Godchaux. Adoreé Jackson and Kenny Vaccaro bring theoretical upside (Much more theoretical for Vaccaro, who remains unsigned—seemingly a yearly ritual for him as well), but the bench is pretty light. On offense, Tua returns, and presumably will be given the entire season without competition, if healthy. Likewise, both Drake and Edmonds return to man the RB/Flex slots, though Edmonds probably has the easier path to success this year. Though it’s great news that Drake is moving on, unfortunately he moved to the Raiders, who already have an established back in Josh Jacobs. Salvon Ahmed should be good enough to step in in case of injury, and Travis Homer may have some appeal if the perpetually injured Seahawks backfield all go down once again. At wideout, all the names above return, plus the addition of Willie Snead, who has mostly been a fantasy non-factor since 2016, his penultimate season in New Orleans. Donovan Peoples-Jones looks to fill a more promising role as the Browns’ third WR this year, and that status may elevate him into a starting role for the Jets. Travis also has presumably one more year of Thielen at his salary. Overall, it’s a decent group of receivers. At tight end, Zach Ertz has fallen far rather quickly, but he still could carve out a role in Philadelphia, especially with so many young and unproven receivers around him. He’s truly the elder statesman in that group, and despite having a new quarterback, is only three seasons removed from a 100+ catch year, and represents an excellent safety valve for essentially a rookie, in Jalen Hurts. Adam Shaheen returns to back him up.
X-factor: Depth. The starting lineup is still in pretty good shape for the Jets, though some players’ roles have been reduced. While I’m not expecting another 9-3 season from them, Travis still should be over .500, and fighting for another playoff bid. Admittedly, every team struggles for depth in a league this big, and with a scrap for any relevant player, it makes it hard to acquire such pieces in season. But the truly great ones do it, and this depth on the Jets’ right now really could use some overhauling. Without doing so, I think New York will fall flat in the event that injury strikes, and we’re likely looking at a team who will finish down two spots in the division.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Thank you for reading this, the sixth in the series of Divisional Previews. I will publish the seventh installment tomorrow. Next up, it's the AFC West.
In 2020, the AFC East continued the tradition of having three teams, all playoff sides, scrap and fight each other for positioning (Though the fourth, Miami, fell off the map, dropping four wins off their 2019 division championship total) in division, and in the conference. For the second year in a row, Sal’s Bills were not the victors. This time, that honor was bestowed upon Travis’ Jets, who swept the division, and headed into the playoffs as the #3 seed. This year, both Buffalo and New England have buffed back up, resplendent in their chances of toppling New York from atop the division. It should be another three-team race to the finish line once again, and unlike a year ago, it may end up with one party of the three not making the postseason. Will Buffalo restore a half-decade dynasty? Can New England nab that elusive division title? Or will the team from the Big Apple (Or in the bordering state that everyone loves to rag on) keep the moniker of, ‘Division Champ,’ and start a run of success of his own? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Buffalo Bills (Sal)
Last year’s finish: 2nd (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Since his entry into the league, Sal has mostly been the class of the division from the jump, turning around a team that was middle-of-the-road into a four-time (And four-straight) division champion, and twice (Including this past year) has finished Super Bowl runner up. But each of the last two years, his divisional dominance has been, at a minimum, put on hold, with Castle (the former MIA) winning each of the last three games in 2019, to go from last-to-first, and win the division, and Travis building what was a good team for several years into a statistical top-10 side a year ago (Well technically, 11th, but also, Sal finished in 9th, about ten points ahead of NYJ, and was still too games back). Sal’s 2021 team looks very similar to the one he fielded in 2020 (Whether that be Week 1, or by Week 17), with two main differences: 1. Sal swapped 2020 First Rounders Henry Ruggs and Kenneth Murray Jr. with Minnesota for Amari Cooper and Mack Wilson, and 2. He acquired Jamal Adams from Seattle. Those trades have elevated the Bills’ potential significantly, and are a rare case in which a reigning conference champion can add multiple former All-Pros to his team in an off-season. Imagining Cooper in an offense with Matt Stafford, Aaron Jones, Mike Williams, 2020 out-of-nowhere fantasy darling Robert Tonyan, and Cole Beasley is pretty scary—especially after last night’s season-opening performance, in which he went off. In addition to those names, Sal added A.J. Dillon in a trade, who looks to get more run than in year-1 due to the free agency departure of Jamaal Williams, as Green Bay refuses to ever let Aaron Jones receive a full workload (Though there is ample evidence that doing so keeps running backs healthier). Beyond those two is Giovani Bernard, who was a scat back of much repute in the middle of the last decade, but whose star faded well before his 30th birthday, which he is still somehow short of (And I promise, that’s not a joke about his diminutive size). While he is now apparently Tom Brady’s 3rd down back of choice, on an explosive offense, he’s no better than the 5th option when on the field, so I am not certain how much upside that assignment brings him. He does, however, lead the league in moustache game, by a long margin. At wide receiver, only Marquez Valdes-Scantling, now in a crowded Green Bay receiving corps, Cam Sims (Who is the beneficiary of today’s Curtis Samuel news), and Freddie Swain are behind those first three. But, at the moment, the former of those two should fare well enough to hold the fort if pressed into action. Ultimately, it’s a borderline top-10 unit, and probably on the good side of that.
Defense, however, has always been the less important side for Sal, though you would be pressed to say that this isn’t one of his best units. At defensive line, he sports the veteran Calais Campbell, who’s still giving out good mileage at 35, and Josh Sweat, who broke out a year ago, and should be among the most-productive ends in the game once again. At linebacker, it’s a strong pairing of Shaq Thompson and A.J. Johnson, with Mack Wilson—still among the most-talented young LBs on Cleveland’s roster (And somehow only 23), and Alec Ogletree, who may get some run in the interim with declining veteran Danny Trevathan missing from action for at least the first part of the season. At defensive back, it’s the same story, with a top-two pairing of Adams and Adrian Phillips among the best in the league. Where there is an element of concern, however, is the bench, with only Carter Coughlin, Garret Wallow, an unemployed Avery Williamson, Terrell Burgess, and Brandon Stephens in reserve. At this moment, that’s among the worst bench units in the league, and points at some rather serious depth issues on the defensive side of the ball. Sal, however, has a history of being among the best (And first) at finding under-the-radar talent, and likes to swing big on those bench spots. As the year goes on though, and injuries happen/roles change, he will likely fill this group out more thoroughly, as evidenced by the long list of players who did not make it on his cap penalty section.
X-factor: Defensive depth. Right now, it seems like Sal is happy with his starting unit, as he only has three non-rookies on his defensive bench, and no extra DL. While Williamson may be picked up off the street and fall into a starting spot at some point, the others are anyone’s guess. I would have to imagine that once again, once we get deeper into the year, Sal will reinforce that group with names that are more ready to contribute now, and make Buffalo once again the class of the AFC East.
Projected division finish: 1st
Miami Dolphins (Ferny)
Last year’s finish: 31st (Division: 4th)
Outlook: 2020 was a one-and-done season for Darrell, who never really applied himself to the league, despite a clear knowledge of the format. That, as well as the roster he was left with, when Castle decided to call it quits after 2019’s thrilling division championship run (As mentioned above—though it was a fluky result, borne out of how down the AFC East was, rather than how good his team was). While the Dolphins possessed talented pieces—namely A.J. Brown and Za’Darius Smith, and Darrell additions of Jalen Hurts, and Chase Young, there just weren’t enough pieces to make a functional lineup, and as a result, Miami fell back down the division latter to an AFC East-worst 2-10. For Ferny, that dismal performance helped him add the premier tight end in—well, possibly ever (In terms of draft pedigree/hype). Though I will refuse to canonize him/rank him among the league’s best before he ever takes a competitive snap, but his presence is a welcome one for Miami—especially as, outside of quarterback Ryan Tannehill (Who is experiencing a late-career resurgence), and the aforementioned dynamo wideout, Brown, there is very little to write home about on this offensive roster. A league-high six rookies are on that side of the ball, and outside of Pitts, none really merit writing about as of now. That said, Jaret Patterson and Larry Rountree could theoretically get some run if injuries happen to those above them on their respective depth charts. They are likely exactly what Ferny figured when he acquired them though: long-term prospects. Veterans Keelan Cole, Mo Alie-Cox, and Byron Pringle also occupy spots on this roster, but none of them are the type of player, at this point in time, who is going to have a big impact. Defensively, it’s clear that Ferny had a clear strategy: defensive line and EDGE, as he traded Jalen Hurts and a rookie 2nd for Nick Bosa, Javon Kinlaw, and Leonard Floyd—a curious trade on its face, given the value of young quarterbacks in this league, and that Miami already had five defensive linemen on their roster (Now seven). Ultimately, those options are very good (Outside of the now retired Jurrell Casey), and in fact, this DL-cohort is almost certainly the best in the league from a talent perspective. But, an educated guess is that those DL/EDGE acquisitions will win Ferny approximately zero more games in 2021 on their own. At linebacker, Miami sports quite likely the worst group in the league, with only Smith, Floyd, and 2021 draft and stash option Cameron McCrone. The defensive backfield, however, is a different story, with solid names like Mike Hilton, Jaquiski Tartt, Jason Verrett, and Justin Coleman. By no means is it a top-10, or even top-half group, but at least this position won’t embarrass Ferny on a weekly basis.
X-factor: Activity/Building for the long-term. There is no substitute for effort in this league, or in life, and this league’s history alone is replete with itinerant GMs who dot our record books. Ferny would do well to learn the lessons that they did not, especially as, many of those GMs were replacements for itinerant GMs themselves. What he does possess, unlike many of those before him, is a wealth of fantasy knowledge, some young offensive impact players, an overabundance of DL talent (From which he should definitely trade to even out this roster—though it won’t net him quite the player back that he traded away), and build for a future here, as this team is transparently the worst in this division by a large margin, and non-competitive for 2021 in its current state.
Projected division finish: 4th
New England Patriots (Chris)
Last year’s finish: 15th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: First and foremost, before I get to New England’s projections for this year, I thought I would pass along well wishes for Chris, who is currently in the hospital with COVID. Chris has been in this league since before I joined, and I’m sure we all wish him a speedy recovery, so that he can get back to doing something admittedly less important: playing spreadsheet football with us. Looking back on last year, it is difficult to evaluate the Patriots’ season. First off, Chris’ best defender, C.J. Mosely, became quite likely the most-consequential COVID opt-out league-wide, leaving a team that was ready to compete without one of its biggest players on the eve of the season. Though Chris made somewhat of an effort to fill the spot, not a lot is available at the linebacker position at that juncture of the off-season, and consequently, he was left with plugging and playing various free agents and rookies, who by-and-large, didn’t really have a noticeable impact. Furthermore, demotions, and injuries plagued the Pats, with at the time, promising second-year WR Kelvin Harmon, who was looking to build on a solid rookie campaign, going down with an ACL tear and missing the year, and both Dalvin Cook and David Njoku (Who was relegated to third on the Browns’ TE depth chart) missing multiple games with injury. It left an offense that was also light on depth trying to fill from within, which held New England, a playoff team at 7-5, from truly achieving its potential. Between Matt Ryan constantly having to play in comeback mode late, and letting Dalvin Cook (And D.K. Metcalf the beneficiary of letting Russ cook for the first half of the year), there was a lot to like from this offense. Defensively, it was more of a mixed bag, with both the defensive line and backfields playing well (Including several rookies like Trevon Diggs), but outside of recent breakout player Shaquil Barrett, a black hole in the middle. Ultimately, those holes were apparent, when Jacksonville won their playoff matchup by nearly 80. This year, it’s mostly the same roster, but also, with some clear upgrades all over the roster. At the top of the order (To borrow a baseball term), there’s a new sheriff in town, and his name is Kirk Cousins. While he has the appearance of a rental with that contract, and many can take shots at him for his vaccination status/chances of being forced to miss game time because of it, few can say that he hasn’t been a well above-average fantasy performer at the position for at least the last half-decade. While his play vacillates, he tends to be an overlooked and underrated commodity (For example, even though last season was his worst year statistically since 2017, he still managed to score 22 PPG, good for 11th among all QBs. Given where Matt Ryan ended up last year, it’s a tangible upgrade, provided Cousins doesn’t come down with an entirely preventable virus at some point…again. At running back, Dalvin Cook is right up there with the McCaffreys, Kamaras, and Henrys, and should represent one of the very best players in our league once again, if healthy. His understudy, Alexander Mattinson, also gets a fair amount of run, and is also on the Patriots’ roster if he should go down. He’s a rather low-level flex play, but can break a big game or two, even without a Cook injury. At wideout, the addition of Will Fuller to the sensational Metcalf gives New England one of the best 1-2 punches out there—once again, provided that Fuller, who is missing Week 1 due to a PED suspension, is able to provide him with the best quality in a player: availability. Njoku returns at TE in an absolutely stacked Browns offense, so there’s no telling how and how often he’ll figure in. The bench is almost entirely comprised of bit-part players, at best, so it’s once again a concern should things go awry. Defensively, Chris brought in Cameron Jordan, Quincy Williams, and Khalil Mack, and with the return of Mosely, all the sudden, this becomes a pretty good starting unit. While just like the offense, the bench is pretty light on spare parts, Trey Hendrickson, Avonte Maddox, and Terez Hall (Once off of the PUP) bring at least some semblance of a role to the table. The defensive backfield, with Diggs, Tre Flowers, and C.J. Henderson, presents some upside—especially when Diggs is playing with his hair on fire, as he was in the opener. When healthy, it’s inside the top-half of starting defenses.
X-factor: Depth. A serious concern last year could rear its head once again. While backup wide receiver and linebacker spots must be improved, the majority of pieces are in place to make another run into the playoffs, and that’s just what New England should do. That said, without more reinforcements on the bench, this could go south quickly if injuries or COVID-19 strike once more. Hopefully, in that event, the additions that Chris made over the off-season will buy him some leeway.
Projected division finish: 2nd
New York Jets (Travis)
Last year’s finish: 12th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: According to the metrics, New York has fielded the best team in the AFC East each of the last two years, but finished third in 2019, before going on a rampage in 2020, winning all three AFC East division games. While there were some problems offensively (Namely at wide receiver and tight end), the Jets fielded one of the very best defensive units in the league, finishing eighth overall by that measure. Offensively, it was the Arizona running backs (Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds) alongside Adam Thielen, when healthy, who drove the bus. But outside of them, there was not another consistent, top-performer for the Jets. While Ryan “Fitzmagic” Fitzpatrick played mostly lights out, he got benched for a significantly less effective Tua Tagovailoa, who went from being a undoubtedly First overall selection, to a starter whose owner is openly looking to replace him within a span 20 months. Zach Pascal, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Damiere Byrd all did their best to cover for lack of receiving depth, but none were particularly effective in that pursuit. The same was true for Ertz, and his backups Adam Shaheen and Ross Dwelley. But while this recap has started to take on the feel of a wake, it’s time to remember that the Jets went 9-3, and to celebrate the unit that got them there. Defensively, they were led by Bobby Wagner, Jamie Collins, Anthony Harris, Josh Bynes (Both of the previous two acquired in separate deals with CIN, at a fraction of the cost of the value they produced), Aaron Donald, Romeo Okwara, and Kyzir White. That group was fantastic when all on the fantasy field together. Every single one of those players returns for New York, though Okwara is now officially a linebacker, and he’s been replaced on the line by Davon Godchaux. Adoreé Jackson and Kenny Vaccaro bring theoretical upside (Much more theoretical for Vaccaro, who remains unsigned—seemingly a yearly ritual for him as well), but the bench is pretty light. On offense, Tua returns, and presumably will be given the entire season without competition, if healthy. Likewise, both Drake and Edmonds return to man the RB/Flex slots, though Edmonds probably has the easier path to success this year. Though it’s great news that Drake is moving on, unfortunately he moved to the Raiders, who already have an established back in Josh Jacobs. Salvon Ahmed should be good enough to step in in case of injury, and Travis Homer may have some appeal if the perpetually injured Seahawks backfield all go down once again. At wideout, all the names above return, plus the addition of Willie Snead, who has mostly been a fantasy non-factor since 2016, his penultimate season in New Orleans. Donovan Peoples-Jones looks to fill a more promising role as the Browns’ third WR this year, and that status may elevate him into a starting role for the Jets. Travis also has presumably one more year of Thielen at his salary. Overall, it’s a decent group of receivers. At tight end, Zach Ertz has fallen far rather quickly, but he still could carve out a role in Philadelphia, especially with so many young and unproven receivers around him. He’s truly the elder statesman in that group, and despite having a new quarterback, is only three seasons removed from a 100+ catch year, and represents an excellent safety valve for essentially a rookie, in Jalen Hurts. Adam Shaheen returns to back him up.
X-factor: Depth. The starting lineup is still in pretty good shape for the Jets, though some players’ roles have been reduced. While I’m not expecting another 9-3 season from them, Travis still should be over .500, and fighting for another playoff bid. Admittedly, every team struggles for depth in a league this big, and with a scrap for any relevant player, it makes it hard to acquire such pieces in season. But the truly great ones do it, and this depth on the Jets’ right now really could use some overhauling. Without doing so, I think New York will fall flat in the event that injury strikes, and we’re likely looking at a team who will finish down two spots in the division.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Thank you for reading this, the sixth in the series of Divisional Previews. I will publish the seventh installment tomorrow. Next up, it's the AFC West.