Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Sept 9, 2021 2:10:20 GMT -5
NFC EAST
For the third season in a row (A league record), the NFC East produced the Super Bowl champion—and this time, it was a different team than the previous two: the Dallas Cowboys. Aaron, the consummate very good but not great GM coming into the year, kicked it into a higher gear, and cemented his legacy, as well as instantly pushed himself to the front of the Hall of Fame conversation. While the two-time reigning division champion (Philadelphia) took a step back, Dave’s Football Team went right back to being the playoff team he’s used to being (Though he didn’t repeat his role of being the underdog spoiler), and Malachi once again finished slightly better, for his highest finish in the league so far. While Aaron surprised by going 11-1, taking the division in a clean sweep, running away, 3 games ahead of Philadelphia, it was a possibility that I hinted at last year, when I said, “While Andrew remains strong, Aaron’s Cowboys have very much entered the competition for the East, in short order since his return, especially given his 2019 playoff plaudits to back him up.” The same was also true for my division projection, saying, “The reason that I waited until second-to-last to project this division should be clear: It’s going to be a very fun division to watch this season, and it legitimately could go in any direction (I’m repeating myself from the 2019 AFC East preview, which, as you’ll remember, very much did, as my projected fourth-placed team, Miami, won the division).” So, with 2020 now in the rearview (At least in some ways), what can we make of what the East will be in 2021? Will Dallas repeat atop the pile? Can Andrew reclaim his long-held thrown, and get back to his dominance over the league? Will Dave finally put together the promise of his often good but never yet truly great team, and stamp his legacy as well? And can Malachi continue to improve, and surprise by nabbing his first ever playoff spot? How about you read below to find out? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Dallas Cowboys (Aaron)
Last year’s finish: 1st (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Aaron had his best-ever finish in 2019, losing a rematch to Philly in the NFC Championship Game, after defeating him in the regular season’s final week. That said, if you had told me in 2020 that he would reign as league champion, I would have told you that he was rather a longshot for the task. In fact, if you look at my predictions from last year, I think they bear that sentiment out, as I picked Aaron to finish 3rd in the East, behind both Andrew and Dave. While both of those teams were good in their own right—both playoff teams, in fact—they didn’t hold a candle to the season that Aaron’s Cowboys had, going 11-1, and comfortably dispatching of each of his opponents in every round of the playoffs (Though he scored a measly 103 points in his First Round defeat of Washington, the third-least amount of points of any team in that round), seemingly turning it on more with each successive round. Dallas rode his impressive collection of offensive talent, including the likes of Deshaun Watson, Derrick Henry, Stefon Diggs, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, and Ronald Jones, to the ship, though his defense was also quite good, with the majority of the unit, including Marlon Humphrey, Nick Kwiatkoski, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Kevin Pierre-Louis, Kerry Hyder, Bilal Nichols, Carlton Davis, Dre’Mont Jones, Trayvon Mullen, and Eric Murray, all pouring in career years. It was the perfect recipe for success, and it all came together at the right time for Aaron, and that is more than ever the case now that he has lost the primary piece to his championship—his franchise quarterback—for at least the season, and possibly forever. With Watson now entangled in a legal imbroglio, and after a trade for the league’s serial bridge quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, he now hands the reigns of the offense to Houston’s current signal caller. Now 32 years old, sapped of much of the athleticism that made him as effective as he once was—one of the league’s most-underrated starters—and surrounded by the Texans’ dearth of offensive weapons on the league’s worst roster, it’s hard to envision a starter with less appeal, other than perhaps Andy Dalton. That dropoff will be noticeable for the Cowboys’ offense. That said, it’s far from gloom and doom for a unit that still possesses Henry, Diggs, Robinson, Godwin, and Jones. That complement of talent means that no matter what, Aaron’s offense will keep him in every game (Health provided). It also puts him near—if not at—the very top of both the league’s running back and wide receiver rankings. He also added Cornell Powell to the receiver unit in the Rookie Draft, in addition to Davis Mills (The Texans’ long-term…I want to say contingency plan, since the Texans still subscribe to the delusion that they have any hope of retaining Watson, legal issues aside, long-term, after dousing the bridge with gasoline and setting it ablaze, while murdering Watson’s dog right in front of him, all the while telling him that they were going to stop and listen to him. Hyperbole is a hell of a thing). Lynn Bowden also returns, but once again punched his card to the IR. At tight end, Jordan Akins has proven to be a decent option, capable of solid contributions, and keeping Dallas from dropping too many points to the opponent, but nothing more. It will be interesting to see how often Tyrod Taylor will lean on him due to his proclivity to stay away from going downfield/checking down to safer throws. Perhaps an increase in usage could elevate him in the TE rankings. On the defensive side of the ball, much of the same group returns, though it has been sapped of a lot of its depth. Yes, many of the starters return, including Kwiatkoski, Bentley, Humphrey, Pierre-Louis, Hyder, Jones, Davis, and Murray, but many of them have had their roles scaled back, several of them significantly. That overall regression puts this Dallas defense squarely in the territory of average on paper, at least at this moment, and with coupled with the absence of Watson, threatens to become Dallas’ fait accompli: a 2021 in which not only does he slide back down the divisional ladder, but also may even miss the playoffs altogether. Right now, it’s teetering on that edge.
X-factor: Offensive and Defensive depth. For a third consecutive year, I use the same X-Factor, and perhaps for the first time, it will come into play. Aaron will have to scaffold this team, as in previous instances, he just had so much firepower that, absent injuries, it didn’t matter. Now, with Watson gone, and several key defensive stalwarts from a year ago riding more of the pine, it’s going to take some serious reinforcements to get back to anywhere near the heights of the previous two seasons. The best case for Aaron is probably to make a good showing of it, keep the core together, and hold the line until Watson’s numerous legal issues are decided. Then, he can see what remains of his Super Bowl-winning team of 2020.
Projected division finish: 2nd
New York Giants (Malachi)
Last year’s finish: 21st (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Following a high-water mark in 2019, Malachi did even better in 2020, rising a negligible two places to finish above the bottom-10 in the league for the first time. The sad truth is, in his time in the league, Mal has been plagued by perhaps the worst injury luck (And luck overall) of any team during that span—and again, this is a world where the 2016 version of this league’s Miami Dolphins happened to Josh Castle. Last year, it was COVID IR stints, and TEs going on IR, and games being postponed, Oh My! So, even though the Giants finished 5-7, fighting uphill against two of the league’s elite, in one of its best divisions, was just going to be untenable at anything less than full strength. Now, with an additional year of team building, there is a real shot that New York can upset that order, climbing up at least one spot. While problems still exist: The lack of a surefire starting running back, how long Chicago coach Matt Nagy will actually insist on starting an inferior/one of the league’s worst quarterback(s), and in two other unlucky moments, some of the biggest acquisitions Mal made over the past year (Irv Smith, and Benardrick McKinney) were just placed on IR (And expected to miss all of our fantasy regular season), and outright cut. While there is still a chance that McKinney gets picked up (Depending on how healed he actually is from last year’s knee injury), and while in this prognosticator’s opinion, he was a fantastic speculative add, that $6 and gaping hole that his release leaves in the defense, has to be burning a hole in Mal’s pocket (And soul). Still, IF Nagy comes to his senses early, and plays rookie dual threat option Justin Fields, this is still a much-improved roster. Beyond the quarterback situation, Mal made a move late in the year to upgrade from Josh Kelley to Devin Singletary, which should still be framed that way despite how often Josh Allen, the league’s most-vulturistic quarterback, steals touchdowns and short yardage opportunities from his two-headed running back tandem. However, though lacking an outright, true lead back, Malachi has added depth at the position in presumed handcuffs Wayne Gallman, and Marlon Mack, who are each one injury away from substantial run (No pun). Wide receiver is perhaps the Giants strongest position, sporting the finally able to break out in 2020 Corey Davis, now the Jets’ #1…for now (Looking at you, Elijah Moore), Michael Pittman, and Allen Lazard in his top-3, and adding rookies Ihmir Smith-Marsette, and Tylan Wallace, each later round picks that could struggle to find fantasy relevance, despite their level of talent, in run heavy offenses. Tight end, now without Smith, is a sore thumb, where the Giants will undoubtedly drop points, despite Mal’s attempt to fortify the position via the free agent (James O’Shaughnessy) and late rounds of the Rookie Draft (Tre’ McKitty). Defensively, the combo of Patrick Queen and Anthony Walker returns in the middle, though McKinney would’ve absolutely sent this defense soaring. Sam Eguavoen makes a poor substitute, but may be able to carve out at least some fantasy relevance as the beneficiary of that real life move. The bench options of Judon and Alex Highsmith are rather uninspiring, however. Along the defensive line, Watt and Brockers return, and they are flanked by high quality addition, A’Shawn Robinson. That group should be among the top-10 defensive lines in the league, and more than hold their own. Defensive back, bu comparison, is in good shape, with Landon Collins, Tashaun Gipson, and Joe Haden manning the fort, and with high-upside free agent addition Jaycee Horn rounding out the group. The pieces are definitely there for this defense to finish in the top-half in the league, and with an offense that is around that good as well, this could be once again, Malachi’s best season in the league for a third year straight.
X-factor: TE, RB, depth. While I believe that I highlighted the problem areas adequately above, I can expound upon them here by saying, Malachi’s .500 or better, and likely even playoff hopes lie in how he addresses these areas of his roster. If he makes just a slight further investment at these spots, his short term outlook would push him beyond Washington and Dallas in the division, and into legitimate contention to nab one of the wild card spots in the top-heavy NFC. But for now, I have to side with Dave and the current champion doing JUST enough to forestall falling to the bottom of the division. The truth is that it’s so close though (FantasyPros even pegs it as a dead heat, with Dallas ranked one spot higher in the league, despite giving them an identical 55/100 score, though it rates Washington at a 58), and that each of the teams in this division may finish with a .500+ record this year.
Projected division finish: 4th
Philadelphia Eagles (Andrew)
Last year’s finish: 14th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: It’s hard to qualify Andrew’s 2020 season as a failure—an 8-4 record is something most teams in this league would kill to achieve even once (Well, they’d kill, but would they be active/attentive enough to make a crafty free agent signing or two?🙃) But such are the expectations of a two-time defending champion, and 2nd-All-time winningest manager in our league. But looking back on what was symptomatic of the Eagles’ backslide, it’s easy to diagnose. Firstly, after a mid-season trade of the aforementioned Watson (Which not only hurt Philly, but also helped his division rival Dallas go all the way), the Eagles spent the rest of the year in several of the league’s worst quarterback situations. While Andrew might’ve saved himself re: Watson in the long-term there (Especially as Andrew pulled off one of the most grotesquely one-sided trades in league history this off-season to acquire Prescott), he may have cost himself another league record, in being the first team to three-peat (Or as Bill Schwertzky’s Superfans opined, “A minimum eight-peat”). However, as things tend to do in this league over time, deals even out, and despite re-acquiring what was, at the time, thought to be no worse than the league’s second-best WR in Michael Thomas, he was (And continues to be) beset by injury maladies, and that essentially doubled the impact the deal had on Philadelphia’s chances of adding a third ring to his collection (Disclaimer: I don’t know how many rings Andrew wears, so this is purely speculation*). Furthermore, injuries to Darius Leonard, probably the best linebacker in the league (And also the most likely to die from a preventable virus), and Matt Milano did not help matters. Ultimately, what is clear from looking at Philly’s 2021 roster, is that the problems that plagued him a year ago, are almost certainly not future ones (Aside from Thomas’ injury woes/frosty relationship with the league’s most-overrated head coach, Sean Payton). Frankly, no matter where Thomas plays (Assuming he’s totally healthy), he may be best advised to stay out of the disaster that is about to be the Saints’ offense in 2021. Where, when, and if he plays this season will be a development of closely watched in this league, as it could symbolize the rebirth of a Phoenix so to speak. Also noteworthy is how Prescott will rebound after a gruesome leg injury ended his 2020 season prematurely. If he retains most of his mobility (And if a declining offensive line can keep him upright) he should absolutely dominate the fantasy season. Running back is surprisingly a position of some question for Philadelphia, however, as despite the presence of Damien Harris (Who SHOULD get all of the carries he can handle in Bill Belichick’s “Death to all New England fantasy running back holders” offense), the only option in reserve is DeeJay Dallas. Harris should be a good play on a weekly basis (Again, dependent on the whims of a man who said, “Tom Brady? Nah, I see your 6-time champion and raise you a defective version of a one-year wonder, Jared Stidham, and my main man Brian Hoyer”), but that is about the least running back depth that I can remember Andrew having since I joined the league. At wideout, it’s again one of the best units when healthy, but also significantly down from in years past at the moment. Now fully out of the shadow of Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley now can make the case as perhaps a top-5 WR in the league, which, when (Or if, again) paired with Thomas, will make one of the most absolute gangbusters WR tandems in this league, if not the very best. Behind them though are Russell Gage, and Randall Cobb (Who should see at least some fantasy life raft in the form of Aaron Rodgers hand selecting him as a guy he wanted back so that he could throw the football to). Tight end, however, is in ship shape, with the league’s unquestioned best TE in George Kittle, and promising (Though held down by a voluminously talented Cleveland tight end group) youngster Harrison Bryant. Overall, it’s undoubtedly a top-10 offense; even with depth shortcomings abound at present. I have to believe that Andrew will make additions here as the season progresses. Shifting to the defense, it’s a bit of the same story. Back are Leonard, Myles Jack, Matt Milano, and Devin Bush, about as good of a foursome of starting linebackers you’ll see in the league (Or at least this side of Cincinnati😏). If healthy, and if able to stay off the COVID list, it’s among the Eagles biggest weapons, and points of separation from pretty much every team that they will play—especially if Milano is able to return to form, as he had his worst season last year, particularly after returning from injury. Along the defensive line, while Chris Jones, Randy Gregory, and Shelby Harris return, the losses of further spiraling out of control Aldon Smith, and recently position-shifted linebacker Joey Bosa, pull down the eliteness of this group. As of now, it’s still a solid unit, but nowhere near where it would’ve been with those two. In the secondary, it’s a short list right now, with only Donovan Wilson and Duron Harmon rostered. While defensive back is the easiest position to fill during the season, sometimes those fliers are just that, and certainly rarely elite starting options for teams looking to add another championship trophy to the case. The bench isn’t very deep, but there are a few quality names in Bosa, second-year linebacker and potential breakout candidate Jacob Phillips, one of the aforementioned linemen, and should he be pressed into action again due to injury, Robert Spillane (Though this is somewhat mitigated by the fact that one of the two potential candidates whose injury would spring Spillane into the starting lineup, is Devin Bush—the exact scenario that played out a year ago).
X-factor: Depth. The roster over, this is one of the least deep Eagles teams that I can remember Andrew fielding. If perfectly healthy (Which he already isn’t), Philadelphia has what it takes to win it all, if things break just right. But things rarely happen that way throughout the course of a fantasy season, and no doubt, Andrew would do well to make several additions to his roster to shore up some of the weaker points of his roster. While this will likely be a competitive division, full of four good-but-not-great teams, the Eagles are the goodest-but-not-great of the four, and therefore, they get my vote to head into the postseason as the head honcho once more.
Projected division finish: 1st
Washington Football Team (Dave)
Last year’s finish: 16th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: Dave’s 2021 roster (And pre-season moves) is an interesting case study. While it’s hard to understand the trading away of one of the game’s best (If also most-frequently injured) wide receivers in Keenan Allen, as well as significant, though clearly not the same as the version we saw in New England, Gronk. Minus those pieces, Washington is still a good team, but with them, I would hesitate to say he wasn’t the division favorite, and that’s including the addition of interception-addicted Jameis Winston at quarterback (Seriously, can somebody get that dude into a program?). Now, however, the ‘Team’ is set to roll into the season with suspended backup TE, Jace Sternberger, and no other deputies—nor a wideout near the ilk of Allen. That said, Washington DOES have perhaps the best and most-numerous group of young WRs in the league. That group includes the forgotten man in Dallas, Michael Gallup (Who is still quite good), and athletic specimens Jalen Reagor and Elijah Moore, each drafted in the past two Rookie Drafts. Even still, Emmanuel Sanders and Christian Kirk are fringe-startable options, the latter of which still only 24 years old. Though the dynasty stars of all but Moore may be fading a bit (Which is more than a little silly to be saying of Gallup and Reagor only two and one years in, respectively, and with Reagor’s first year being constantly interrupted by a series of injuries). Continuing to focus on what Washington does have, Miles Sanders returns as the primary running back, and James White (Though he had his worst season last year since entering the league—understandable given the tragedy he dealt with) available as a starting option as well. Not to make light of that, because it is among the best running back pairings in the league, but it is unfortunate for Dave that Justice Hill just went down with a torn Achilles, at least for depth reasons, though I suppose at that level, Rashaad Penny could’ve chipped in a few points as a bye week fill-in, if he were healthy, and as long as he remains employed by the Seahawks. Defensively, it’s a mixed bag, as for some reason, Jordan Hicks has been exiled to the Siberia of the middle linebacking world by Kliff Kingsbury, and his trade demands have not yet been honored. If he remains a backup, that severely caps what the ‘Team’s defense can do, as Hicks was the star of the show each of the past two years. Josey Jewell may take that spot, but will he run with it, after being so effectively yo-yoed in and out of the starting lineup by Denver’s staff the past two seasons? It’s an open question. Behind them, Troy Dye looks like the only projectable piece at the position, and he may come back to Earth a bit after filling in for a now returned Anthony Barr. It’s a position of real concern for Dave. Defensive line is decidedly more settled, with an impressive group of three, headlined by any of the three of Danielle Hunter, Akiem Hicks, and Yannick Ngakoue. It’s one of the best DL units in the league, of which this division dominates. In the defensive backfield, Damontae Kazee and Tre’Davious White each appear to be solid options, and Jevon Holland can join that list/move in and out of Dave’s lineup with Rashan Gary as he sees fit. All-in-all, it’s a below average defense, but not so much that it would’ve held him back sans the pre-season trade with Denver.
X-factor: TE, Defense. Perhaps the decision to move on from Allen and Gronk for a future pick was a good one, long-term, but it’s hard not to see it as throwing away a real opportunity this year, for a team that was knocking on the door of the top-10 in the league with them. Now, it’s likely going to be another middle-of-the-road year for Washington, and one in which there will be a real dogfight, likely among the three bottom teams in the division, for their place in the pecking order, and consequently a playoff spot. If Dave wants to have any chance of prevailing in those pursuits, he must add a serviceable tight end and linebacker at a minimum. That would put him back on that road to the postseason, where he has specialized as the master of the upset, and a big game hunter. Just like Playoff Rondo, the playoffs are always better with Dave in them, and I hope the league isn’t deprived of seeing another top seed shaking in their boots when they see the playoff matchup come out with a 6-8-seeded Dave, ready to spoil their season.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Thank you for reading this, the fifth in the series of Divisional Previews—the NFC East. I will publish the sixth installment, this time the AFC East tomorrow evening before the game.
For the third season in a row (A league record), the NFC East produced the Super Bowl champion—and this time, it was a different team than the previous two: the Dallas Cowboys. Aaron, the consummate very good but not great GM coming into the year, kicked it into a higher gear, and cemented his legacy, as well as instantly pushed himself to the front of the Hall of Fame conversation. While the two-time reigning division champion (Philadelphia) took a step back, Dave’s Football Team went right back to being the playoff team he’s used to being (Though he didn’t repeat his role of being the underdog spoiler), and Malachi once again finished slightly better, for his highest finish in the league so far. While Aaron surprised by going 11-1, taking the division in a clean sweep, running away, 3 games ahead of Philadelphia, it was a possibility that I hinted at last year, when I said, “While Andrew remains strong, Aaron’s Cowboys have very much entered the competition for the East, in short order since his return, especially given his 2019 playoff plaudits to back him up.” The same was also true for my division projection, saying, “The reason that I waited until second-to-last to project this division should be clear: It’s going to be a very fun division to watch this season, and it legitimately could go in any direction (I’m repeating myself from the 2019 AFC East preview, which, as you’ll remember, very much did, as my projected fourth-placed team, Miami, won the division).” So, with 2020 now in the rearview (At least in some ways), what can we make of what the East will be in 2021? Will Dallas repeat atop the pile? Can Andrew reclaim his long-held thrown, and get back to his dominance over the league? Will Dave finally put together the promise of his often good but never yet truly great team, and stamp his legacy as well? And can Malachi continue to improve, and surprise by nabbing his first ever playoff spot? How about you read below to find out? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Dallas Cowboys (Aaron)
Last year’s finish: 1st (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Aaron had his best-ever finish in 2019, losing a rematch to Philly in the NFC Championship Game, after defeating him in the regular season’s final week. That said, if you had told me in 2020 that he would reign as league champion, I would have told you that he was rather a longshot for the task. In fact, if you look at my predictions from last year, I think they bear that sentiment out, as I picked Aaron to finish 3rd in the East, behind both Andrew and Dave. While both of those teams were good in their own right—both playoff teams, in fact—they didn’t hold a candle to the season that Aaron’s Cowboys had, going 11-1, and comfortably dispatching of each of his opponents in every round of the playoffs (Though he scored a measly 103 points in his First Round defeat of Washington, the third-least amount of points of any team in that round), seemingly turning it on more with each successive round. Dallas rode his impressive collection of offensive talent, including the likes of Deshaun Watson, Derrick Henry, Stefon Diggs, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, and Ronald Jones, to the ship, though his defense was also quite good, with the majority of the unit, including Marlon Humphrey, Nick Kwiatkoski, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Kevin Pierre-Louis, Kerry Hyder, Bilal Nichols, Carlton Davis, Dre’Mont Jones, Trayvon Mullen, and Eric Murray, all pouring in career years. It was the perfect recipe for success, and it all came together at the right time for Aaron, and that is more than ever the case now that he has lost the primary piece to his championship—his franchise quarterback—for at least the season, and possibly forever. With Watson now entangled in a legal imbroglio, and after a trade for the league’s serial bridge quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, he now hands the reigns of the offense to Houston’s current signal caller. Now 32 years old, sapped of much of the athleticism that made him as effective as he once was—one of the league’s most-underrated starters—and surrounded by the Texans’ dearth of offensive weapons on the league’s worst roster, it’s hard to envision a starter with less appeal, other than perhaps Andy Dalton. That dropoff will be noticeable for the Cowboys’ offense. That said, it’s far from gloom and doom for a unit that still possesses Henry, Diggs, Robinson, Godwin, and Jones. That complement of talent means that no matter what, Aaron’s offense will keep him in every game (Health provided). It also puts him near—if not at—the very top of both the league’s running back and wide receiver rankings. He also added Cornell Powell to the receiver unit in the Rookie Draft, in addition to Davis Mills (The Texans’ long-term…I want to say contingency plan, since the Texans still subscribe to the delusion that they have any hope of retaining Watson, legal issues aside, long-term, after dousing the bridge with gasoline and setting it ablaze, while murdering Watson’s dog right in front of him, all the while telling him that they were going to stop and listen to him. Hyperbole is a hell of a thing). Lynn Bowden also returns, but once again punched his card to the IR. At tight end, Jordan Akins has proven to be a decent option, capable of solid contributions, and keeping Dallas from dropping too many points to the opponent, but nothing more. It will be interesting to see how often Tyrod Taylor will lean on him due to his proclivity to stay away from going downfield/checking down to safer throws. Perhaps an increase in usage could elevate him in the TE rankings. On the defensive side of the ball, much of the same group returns, though it has been sapped of a lot of its depth. Yes, many of the starters return, including Kwiatkoski, Bentley, Humphrey, Pierre-Louis, Hyder, Jones, Davis, and Murray, but many of them have had their roles scaled back, several of them significantly. That overall regression puts this Dallas defense squarely in the territory of average on paper, at least at this moment, and with coupled with the absence of Watson, threatens to become Dallas’ fait accompli: a 2021 in which not only does he slide back down the divisional ladder, but also may even miss the playoffs altogether. Right now, it’s teetering on that edge.
X-factor: Offensive and Defensive depth. For a third consecutive year, I use the same X-Factor, and perhaps for the first time, it will come into play. Aaron will have to scaffold this team, as in previous instances, he just had so much firepower that, absent injuries, it didn’t matter. Now, with Watson gone, and several key defensive stalwarts from a year ago riding more of the pine, it’s going to take some serious reinforcements to get back to anywhere near the heights of the previous two seasons. The best case for Aaron is probably to make a good showing of it, keep the core together, and hold the line until Watson’s numerous legal issues are decided. Then, he can see what remains of his Super Bowl-winning team of 2020.
Projected division finish: 2nd
New York Giants (Malachi)
Last year’s finish: 21st (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Following a high-water mark in 2019, Malachi did even better in 2020, rising a negligible two places to finish above the bottom-10 in the league for the first time. The sad truth is, in his time in the league, Mal has been plagued by perhaps the worst injury luck (And luck overall) of any team during that span—and again, this is a world where the 2016 version of this league’s Miami Dolphins happened to Josh Castle. Last year, it was COVID IR stints, and TEs going on IR, and games being postponed, Oh My! So, even though the Giants finished 5-7, fighting uphill against two of the league’s elite, in one of its best divisions, was just going to be untenable at anything less than full strength. Now, with an additional year of team building, there is a real shot that New York can upset that order, climbing up at least one spot. While problems still exist: The lack of a surefire starting running back, how long Chicago coach Matt Nagy will actually insist on starting an inferior/one of the league’s worst quarterback(s), and in two other unlucky moments, some of the biggest acquisitions Mal made over the past year (Irv Smith, and Benardrick McKinney) were just placed on IR (And expected to miss all of our fantasy regular season), and outright cut. While there is still a chance that McKinney gets picked up (Depending on how healed he actually is from last year’s knee injury), and while in this prognosticator’s opinion, he was a fantastic speculative add, that $6 and gaping hole that his release leaves in the defense, has to be burning a hole in Mal’s pocket (And soul). Still, IF Nagy comes to his senses early, and plays rookie dual threat option Justin Fields, this is still a much-improved roster. Beyond the quarterback situation, Mal made a move late in the year to upgrade from Josh Kelley to Devin Singletary, which should still be framed that way despite how often Josh Allen, the league’s most-vulturistic quarterback, steals touchdowns and short yardage opportunities from his two-headed running back tandem. However, though lacking an outright, true lead back, Malachi has added depth at the position in presumed handcuffs Wayne Gallman, and Marlon Mack, who are each one injury away from substantial run (No pun). Wide receiver is perhaps the Giants strongest position, sporting the finally able to break out in 2020 Corey Davis, now the Jets’ #1…for now (Looking at you, Elijah Moore), Michael Pittman, and Allen Lazard in his top-3, and adding rookies Ihmir Smith-Marsette, and Tylan Wallace, each later round picks that could struggle to find fantasy relevance, despite their level of talent, in run heavy offenses. Tight end, now without Smith, is a sore thumb, where the Giants will undoubtedly drop points, despite Mal’s attempt to fortify the position via the free agent (James O’Shaughnessy) and late rounds of the Rookie Draft (Tre’ McKitty). Defensively, the combo of Patrick Queen and Anthony Walker returns in the middle, though McKinney would’ve absolutely sent this defense soaring. Sam Eguavoen makes a poor substitute, but may be able to carve out at least some fantasy relevance as the beneficiary of that real life move. The bench options of Judon and Alex Highsmith are rather uninspiring, however. Along the defensive line, Watt and Brockers return, and they are flanked by high quality addition, A’Shawn Robinson. That group should be among the top-10 defensive lines in the league, and more than hold their own. Defensive back, bu comparison, is in good shape, with Landon Collins, Tashaun Gipson, and Joe Haden manning the fort, and with high-upside free agent addition Jaycee Horn rounding out the group. The pieces are definitely there for this defense to finish in the top-half in the league, and with an offense that is around that good as well, this could be once again, Malachi’s best season in the league for a third year straight.
X-factor: TE, RB, depth. While I believe that I highlighted the problem areas adequately above, I can expound upon them here by saying, Malachi’s .500 or better, and likely even playoff hopes lie in how he addresses these areas of his roster. If he makes just a slight further investment at these spots, his short term outlook would push him beyond Washington and Dallas in the division, and into legitimate contention to nab one of the wild card spots in the top-heavy NFC. But for now, I have to side with Dave and the current champion doing JUST enough to forestall falling to the bottom of the division. The truth is that it’s so close though (FantasyPros even pegs it as a dead heat, with Dallas ranked one spot higher in the league, despite giving them an identical 55/100 score, though it rates Washington at a 58), and that each of the teams in this division may finish with a .500+ record this year.
Projected division finish: 4th
Philadelphia Eagles (Andrew)
Last year’s finish: 14th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: It’s hard to qualify Andrew’s 2020 season as a failure—an 8-4 record is something most teams in this league would kill to achieve even once (Well, they’d kill, but would they be active/attentive enough to make a crafty free agent signing or two?🙃) But such are the expectations of a two-time defending champion, and 2nd-All-time winningest manager in our league. But looking back on what was symptomatic of the Eagles’ backslide, it’s easy to diagnose. Firstly, after a mid-season trade of the aforementioned Watson (Which not only hurt Philly, but also helped his division rival Dallas go all the way), the Eagles spent the rest of the year in several of the league’s worst quarterback situations. While Andrew might’ve saved himself re: Watson in the long-term there (Especially as Andrew pulled off one of the most grotesquely one-sided trades in league history this off-season to acquire Prescott), he may have cost himself another league record, in being the first team to three-peat (Or as Bill Schwertzky’s Superfans opined, “A minimum eight-peat”). However, as things tend to do in this league over time, deals even out, and despite re-acquiring what was, at the time, thought to be no worse than the league’s second-best WR in Michael Thomas, he was (And continues to be) beset by injury maladies, and that essentially doubled the impact the deal had on Philadelphia’s chances of adding a third ring to his collection (Disclaimer: I don’t know how many rings Andrew wears, so this is purely speculation*). Furthermore, injuries to Darius Leonard, probably the best linebacker in the league (And also the most likely to die from a preventable virus), and Matt Milano did not help matters. Ultimately, what is clear from looking at Philly’s 2021 roster, is that the problems that plagued him a year ago, are almost certainly not future ones (Aside from Thomas’ injury woes/frosty relationship with the league’s most-overrated head coach, Sean Payton). Frankly, no matter where Thomas plays (Assuming he’s totally healthy), he may be best advised to stay out of the disaster that is about to be the Saints’ offense in 2021. Where, when, and if he plays this season will be a development of closely watched in this league, as it could symbolize the rebirth of a Phoenix so to speak. Also noteworthy is how Prescott will rebound after a gruesome leg injury ended his 2020 season prematurely. If he retains most of his mobility (And if a declining offensive line can keep him upright) he should absolutely dominate the fantasy season. Running back is surprisingly a position of some question for Philadelphia, however, as despite the presence of Damien Harris (Who SHOULD get all of the carries he can handle in Bill Belichick’s “Death to all New England fantasy running back holders” offense), the only option in reserve is DeeJay Dallas. Harris should be a good play on a weekly basis (Again, dependent on the whims of a man who said, “Tom Brady? Nah, I see your 6-time champion and raise you a defective version of a one-year wonder, Jared Stidham, and my main man Brian Hoyer”), but that is about the least running back depth that I can remember Andrew having since I joined the league. At wideout, it’s again one of the best units when healthy, but also significantly down from in years past at the moment. Now fully out of the shadow of Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley now can make the case as perhaps a top-5 WR in the league, which, when (Or if, again) paired with Thomas, will make one of the most absolute gangbusters WR tandems in this league, if not the very best. Behind them though are Russell Gage, and Randall Cobb (Who should see at least some fantasy life raft in the form of Aaron Rodgers hand selecting him as a guy he wanted back so that he could throw the football to). Tight end, however, is in ship shape, with the league’s unquestioned best TE in George Kittle, and promising (Though held down by a voluminously talented Cleveland tight end group) youngster Harrison Bryant. Overall, it’s undoubtedly a top-10 offense; even with depth shortcomings abound at present. I have to believe that Andrew will make additions here as the season progresses. Shifting to the defense, it’s a bit of the same story. Back are Leonard, Myles Jack, Matt Milano, and Devin Bush, about as good of a foursome of starting linebackers you’ll see in the league (Or at least this side of Cincinnati😏). If healthy, and if able to stay off the COVID list, it’s among the Eagles biggest weapons, and points of separation from pretty much every team that they will play—especially if Milano is able to return to form, as he had his worst season last year, particularly after returning from injury. Along the defensive line, while Chris Jones, Randy Gregory, and Shelby Harris return, the losses of further spiraling out of control Aldon Smith, and recently position-shifted linebacker Joey Bosa, pull down the eliteness of this group. As of now, it’s still a solid unit, but nowhere near where it would’ve been with those two. In the secondary, it’s a short list right now, with only Donovan Wilson and Duron Harmon rostered. While defensive back is the easiest position to fill during the season, sometimes those fliers are just that, and certainly rarely elite starting options for teams looking to add another championship trophy to the case. The bench isn’t very deep, but there are a few quality names in Bosa, second-year linebacker and potential breakout candidate Jacob Phillips, one of the aforementioned linemen, and should he be pressed into action again due to injury, Robert Spillane (Though this is somewhat mitigated by the fact that one of the two potential candidates whose injury would spring Spillane into the starting lineup, is Devin Bush—the exact scenario that played out a year ago).
X-factor: Depth. The roster over, this is one of the least deep Eagles teams that I can remember Andrew fielding. If perfectly healthy (Which he already isn’t), Philadelphia has what it takes to win it all, if things break just right. But things rarely happen that way throughout the course of a fantasy season, and no doubt, Andrew would do well to make several additions to his roster to shore up some of the weaker points of his roster. While this will likely be a competitive division, full of four good-but-not-great teams, the Eagles are the goodest-but-not-great of the four, and therefore, they get my vote to head into the postseason as the head honcho once more.
Projected division finish: 1st
Washington Football Team (Dave)
Last year’s finish: 16th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: Dave’s 2021 roster (And pre-season moves) is an interesting case study. While it’s hard to understand the trading away of one of the game’s best (If also most-frequently injured) wide receivers in Keenan Allen, as well as significant, though clearly not the same as the version we saw in New England, Gronk. Minus those pieces, Washington is still a good team, but with them, I would hesitate to say he wasn’t the division favorite, and that’s including the addition of interception-addicted Jameis Winston at quarterback (Seriously, can somebody get that dude into a program?). Now, however, the ‘Team’ is set to roll into the season with suspended backup TE, Jace Sternberger, and no other deputies—nor a wideout near the ilk of Allen. That said, Washington DOES have perhaps the best and most-numerous group of young WRs in the league. That group includes the forgotten man in Dallas, Michael Gallup (Who is still quite good), and athletic specimens Jalen Reagor and Elijah Moore, each drafted in the past two Rookie Drafts. Even still, Emmanuel Sanders and Christian Kirk are fringe-startable options, the latter of which still only 24 years old. Though the dynasty stars of all but Moore may be fading a bit (Which is more than a little silly to be saying of Gallup and Reagor only two and one years in, respectively, and with Reagor’s first year being constantly interrupted by a series of injuries). Continuing to focus on what Washington does have, Miles Sanders returns as the primary running back, and James White (Though he had his worst season last year since entering the league—understandable given the tragedy he dealt with) available as a starting option as well. Not to make light of that, because it is among the best running back pairings in the league, but it is unfortunate for Dave that Justice Hill just went down with a torn Achilles, at least for depth reasons, though I suppose at that level, Rashaad Penny could’ve chipped in a few points as a bye week fill-in, if he were healthy, and as long as he remains employed by the Seahawks. Defensively, it’s a mixed bag, as for some reason, Jordan Hicks has been exiled to the Siberia of the middle linebacking world by Kliff Kingsbury, and his trade demands have not yet been honored. If he remains a backup, that severely caps what the ‘Team’s defense can do, as Hicks was the star of the show each of the past two years. Josey Jewell may take that spot, but will he run with it, after being so effectively yo-yoed in and out of the starting lineup by Denver’s staff the past two seasons? It’s an open question. Behind them, Troy Dye looks like the only projectable piece at the position, and he may come back to Earth a bit after filling in for a now returned Anthony Barr. It’s a position of real concern for Dave. Defensive line is decidedly more settled, with an impressive group of three, headlined by any of the three of Danielle Hunter, Akiem Hicks, and Yannick Ngakoue. It’s one of the best DL units in the league, of which this division dominates. In the defensive backfield, Damontae Kazee and Tre’Davious White each appear to be solid options, and Jevon Holland can join that list/move in and out of Dave’s lineup with Rashan Gary as he sees fit. All-in-all, it’s a below average defense, but not so much that it would’ve held him back sans the pre-season trade with Denver.
X-factor: TE, Defense. Perhaps the decision to move on from Allen and Gronk for a future pick was a good one, long-term, but it’s hard not to see it as throwing away a real opportunity this year, for a team that was knocking on the door of the top-10 in the league with them. Now, it’s likely going to be another middle-of-the-road year for Washington, and one in which there will be a real dogfight, likely among the three bottom teams in the division, for their place in the pecking order, and consequently a playoff spot. If Dave wants to have any chance of prevailing in those pursuits, he must add a serviceable tight end and linebacker at a minimum. That would put him back on that road to the postseason, where he has specialized as the master of the upset, and a big game hunter. Just like Playoff Rondo, the playoffs are always better with Dave in them, and I hope the league isn’t deprived of seeing another top seed shaking in their boots when they see the playoff matchup come out with a 6-8-seeded Dave, ready to spoil their season.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Thank you for reading this, the fifth in the series of Divisional Previews—the NFC East. I will publish the sixth installment, this time the AFC East tomorrow evening before the game.