Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Sept 7, 2021 22:40:40 GMT -5
NFC NORTH
Last year, three teams in the NFC North finished among the bottom-11 in the league, setting a path for the Vikings to repeat as division champions for the first time. Entering 2021, Charlie has been replaced by an energetic, and eager GM in Miller. If he doesn’t have the temperament to improve this Chicago team, at least he’s willing to put in the time/effort. Likewise, big gains are being made by the division’s other two teams, Detroit and Green Bay. While It’s still difficult to differentiate the three, to some degree, it’s certainly possible that all three are in playoff contention as deep as the final week of the regular season. It’s also possible that the division sends as many as three teams to the postseason for the first time in years. But, hypothetically speaking, who will those teams be? Will Miller turn Chicago’s fortunes around in Year-1? Will Christian be able to shake off the jarring injury to his top-draft pick, and keep his upward trajectory he was on, based on his off-season moves and commitments? Will Jaxon be able to build another offensive juggernaut in this division as well? And will Minnesota be able to improve its defense? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Chicago Bears (Miller)
Last year’s finish: 25th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: Miller burst onto the scene in this league, making trades from the word go (Including a trade rape of yours truly with his first deal). Sadly, while there has been a dizzying amount of activity since, it has not been enough to satiate Miller’s appetite for destruction—of Charlie’s roster—which, of course, needed destroying. With that flurry of players constantly moving in and out, it’s nearly impossible to track the capital of it all. While initially, Miller intimated a desire to add picks, he has since dispensed with all of those, to make an attempt to compete this season, it would seem. But does he have the horses? Let’s take a look. Looking immediately at the offense, there are a lot of young, high-upside players on the roster, including second-year signal caller (And recently-minted starter) Jalen Hurts. While he does possess desirable athletic traits, and mostly showed out upon his being given a chance late last year, he also stumbled several times, and gave some cause for concern with his streakiness. As a pro QB prospect (And as a fantasy one), he does carry a lot of risk—but if he can replicate his short sample size showing (Say that five times fast), he carries enormous potential to be a top-10, even top-5 QB in this league. At running back, Miller traded for Austin Ekeler, who, provided he can stay healthy, carries a good chance of being a top-10 back in this league. Since he took over as the Chargers’ primary backfield option in 2019, few have been better fantasy PPR format bets. He also possesses Sony Michel, a bit of a disappointment in New England, who will now be taking over a large percentage of the snaps in Los Angeles after Cam Akers’ injury. At wide receiver, the Bears are certainly top-heavy, with Brandon Cooks, James Washington, Marquez Callaway, and not much else—though are deep at TE, with Jared Cook, Hayden Hurst, Tyler Kroft, and Noah Gray, all except for the final name expected to be starters for their respective teams (Assuming Atlanta lines up in 2TE formations a fair amount of the time). Defensively, the unit is about the definition of average. Linebackers Alex Singleton and Cory Littleton lead the way at linebacker; though each has seen their roles reduce even before the season has begun. At defensive back, likely the Bears’ top position on that side of the ball, Tracy Walker, Khari Willis, Keanu Neal, Xavier McKinney, and Lonnie Johnson lead the way. It’s a deep group that is among the league’s best secondary units. Along the line, high upside bets, in former first rounder Josh Allen, and the aged but still effective Carlos Dunlap man the position. The bench, however, is pretty sparse, with only rookies Jayson Oweh, Jamien Sherwood, Talanoa Hufanga, and the aforementioned McKinney under his charge.
X-factor: Linebacker/depth. The biggest issues for this Chicago team are the lack of depth—particularly at linebacker, wide receiver, and along the defensive line. No doubt, there are going to be holes when you are attempting to turn around a franchise that was in shambles for nearly the last decade in this league, but those are the main obstacles to the Bears competing this year. Miller tore down and rebuilt, but Rome was not built in a day, as they say. Before he can compete with the league’s elite—a really stark and astounding thing to be saying a year from being completely off the map in terms of contention—he must address those issues. As of right now, it’s a middle of the road roster, with some definite highlights. By about every measure though, Miller’s activity, and consequently his roster, is better than Charlie’s top-heavy, several assets, then 10-or-so players who were fringe players who maybe shouldn’t have even been rostered, and trade the farm just to end up conveying top-5 picks strategy.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Detroit Lions (Christian)
Last year’s finish: 26th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: On the eve of the 2020 season, Christian made one of the most grotesquely one-sided trades in league history, shipping off surprise late off-season addition, and freshly named Patriots starter Cam Newton for Indianapolis’ First Round pick—a pick which ultimately ended up conveying as 1.1. While the move was applauded by many (Despite the steep price and Newton’s exorbitant salary in this league), and J.R.’s new QB got off to a hot start, he faded significantly down the stretch—still never looking the same since his 2018 injury—throwing more interceptions than touchdowns, and failing to make the necessary additions all season long that could’ve fortified that team—a team which had plenty of talent at the top of its roster. For Detrot’s purposes, Christian understood that he wasn’t set up long-term contention, and instead of faking it and trying to prop up an unsturdy base (Just like my Spanish classes in college), he purposefully put his eggs into the future basket. Come the beginning of the off-season, and Christian held a high UFA pick, as well as two of the top-7 rookie picks. With those, he managed to snag Matt Ryan in a draft day trade that saw him move 1.1 with Brooks, allowing him to do a positional two-for-one (Though it also cost him his dream prospect, and the offensive position most in need, in TE Kyle Pitts, who was gone by the time Christian picked at 1.5). Ultimately, Christian opted to double up with Josh Jacobs at running back, selecting Travis Etienne. However, in one of the most unkind blows to any team this pre-season, lost him for the year to the dreaded Lisfranc (No, not Liz Frank) injury in his foot. That pretty well upended the depth that the Lions had at the position, taking Christian from a source of power, to a vulnerability given Josh Jacobs’ intermittent issues with staying healthy. Jacobs alone is an excellent starting option, but the loss of Etienne removes the Lions from the list of a few teams that could boast having a running back in both the RB and RWT spots—a spot which now presumably falls to A.J. Green or Quez Watkins—likely a big downgrade. At wideout, Detroit boasts a large contingent of numbers, including First Round pick and do everything player, Rondale Moore, and the perpetually underwhelming (Mostly due to injuries) Tyrell Williams. If Williams is able to stay on the field, and is able to recapture his form from San Diego (And the very early period from his Raiders’ “career”) for the real life Lions, he could be a serious asset to Christian. Comprising the bench are a number of previous dynasty darlings who are trying to reclaim their once promising careers, with the likes of Andy Isabella (Who’s this fantasy generation’s version of Jeff Janis, as he blows up every time he gets on the field, but somehow has been mothballed the past two years—though in this group, him being any higher than fourth or MAYBE third is hard to defend), John Ross (Whose injuries, and inability to run anything other than a go route have relegated him to the same career trajectory as former Giant and fellow über-bust—at least to this point—Corey Coleman), and Scotty Miller (Similarly go-route minded, and similarly demoted on the depth chart, due to the signing of a non-consensual back-masturbating, foot-freezing, safe helmet-hating, non bill-paying, property-destroying, curse-out-the-HOA-board shouting provocateur—and the immense talent of the Tampa Bay wide receivers). Additionally, surprise Eagles’ third receiver Quez Watkins, rookie tight end Brevin Jordan (Who is either a dynamic playmaker with the ball in his hands, or an in-line blocker depending on which prognosticator you ask), and everyone’s favorite bye week fill-in at QB (Provided he stays at that position) in Taysom Hill. On the defensive side of the ball, you get a little bit of every flavor from Detroit. You have grizzled, proven veterans like Ndamukong Suh, and Adrian Amos, former First Round linebackers in Deion Jones, and Leighton Vander Esch (The former a force that still is among the best fantasy IDP bets in the game, though the latter already a walking injury, despite possessing unimpeachable talent), a litany of creative finds, like Jordan Whitehead, Justin Van Ginkel, and DeShon Elliott, and blue chip players in L.J. Collier and Justin Strnad (Whom my spell check hates), who for various reasons (Mostly youth), haven’t broken out yet, but may do so after being slated for more time than previous years. While the defensive line and linebacker positions are in at least good shape, just like Chicago, it’s the secondary that really shines for Detroit. In Whitehead, Elliott (Who became an emergency starter last year, and never relinquished the role), and Amos (Who had a bit of a down year for himself, but came on strong down the stretch), the Lions have one of the best and most-underrated secondaries in the league. Add to that a very promising rookie in Jacksonville, with Andre Cisco, and you have a team that could dominate at that position. To repeat last year’s prediction on this side of the ball: it should be among the better defenses in the league, though probably not significantly above average.
X-factor: Health from here on out. Clearly, the injury gods did Christian no favors when they took away his top draft pick on the eve of the season, but if he should be able to sustain near pristine health from here on out, I think he has JUST enough to get past Miller to be the second-best team in this division. I think Detroit’s overall depth is superior, and while there are still holes in his roster as well, the fact that mostly veterans make up his bench vs. the number of unproven rookies that make up Chicago’s (Especially on defense) make the difference. That, and—though I don’t presently see a real path for a ton of playing time—I’m not yet convinced the LVE is done playing at a really high level. It frankly comes down to this: I’m going against my gut, and against the better team as of today (Chicago), because I think a lot of the Lions’ players are going to surprise and outperform expectations.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Green Bay Packers (Jaxon)
Last year’s finish: 22nd (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: After another season of subpar results (Telling, considering that a 22nd place finish was good enough for 2nd in the NFC North), Jaxon just put his head down, went back to the Rookie Draft, added Jaylen Waddle, Amari Rodgers, Nick Bolton, Gregory Rousseau, Kyle Trask, Joseph Ossai, and Nick Niemann—then added a starting quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater for good measure…and yet, is likely to find himself back in the same position this year. While the offense has made consistent, gargantuan leaps each of the past few years, Jaxon’s approach to filling his defense has often been hands off—or at least an insignificant commitment to anyone other than young players who have potential to make an impact down the line. Unfortunately, heretofore, that strategy has yet to pay off. But let’s start with the good, which is the territory where this offense currently resides. Bridgewater is a solid starting quarterback, though perhaps a skosh below that as a fantasy entity, and with likely a superior talent behind him on Denver’s bench. If he maintains the job throughout the season though, he does have a tremendous WR group around him, which could elevate his play—though the conservative, checkdown-heavy thrower will have to throw the ball downfield more to take advantage of it. Running back, however, is perhaps the most-glaring hole on offense, with none of Tony Pollard, Nyheim Hines, or Benny Snell possessing a lead-back role. That said, Tony Pollard is unmistakably the best running back on his team in 2021, and while there are about $90 million reasons the Cowboys’ refuse to see that, even teams that make mistakes in extending players whose best years are behind them, few owners will accept losing less than Jerry Jones—though already as a Dallas institution, I wouldn’t bet on Elliott being moved or cut loose completely, even if Pollard is actually given the chance to wrest away the majority of reps at the position. A better long-term play than a short-term one, Pollard still has the ability to make that jump over the next few years. Regarding Hines, there were many occasions in which he was the best RB play in Indianapolis last year—though those chances of repeating take a hit with the further crowding of the Colts’ backfield with the return of Marlon Mack. He still is likely the top-passing back for that team, but it does endanger making his fantasy successes of a year ago, fleeting. Wide receiver, comparatively, in great shape, with the Packers sporting one of the best young WR corps in the league. Last year, Jaxon took one of the best WRs in the draft, in rookie CeeDee Lamb, and later Van Jefferson. This year, he doubled up with Alabama speedster Jaylen Waddle, and then Amari Rodgers. Whether the latter two of those picks will pan out, or break free from their expected limited roles in 2021, is a mystery. But with that group, none of whom are over 25—and with only Jefferson above 22—it’s clear that there is core of young talent at the position, the likes of which may not be matched elsewhere in the league. Jauan Jennings is also a player with an impressive collegiate profile, though he is presently buried on the 49ers depth chart. Oh, and who can forget about young and productive TE Noah Fant? Jaxon is putting himself in position to have a dominant offense, and soon. Defensively, Green Bay is, well…improved, but still far from a finished product. While the additions of Bolton, Rousseau, and to a lesser extent Ossai, and Niemann, will help, there are very few impact players for 2021. That Bolton, in fact, may lead the defense in points year-1, speaks volumes about the state of the unit. While not an indemnification of the player himself, it’s rarely a good thing when a rookie has the ability to step onto a roster and become the most impactful player on his side of the ball. While other quality pieces exist, like Antoine Winfield, and Chase Winovich, there are many more like Duke Riley, Brandon Jones, Amani Hooker, Ulysses Gilbert, Dennis Gardeck, and Ty Summers, who have never been better than league average. Overall, the offense could break into the top-half this year, whereas the defense is likelier to finish dead last than to make that same jump.
X-factor: Defense and time. Another case of a previous X-factor repeating itself, Green Bay is still a year or more away, and that’s solely because of the lack of talent and depth on the defensive side of the ball. It’s clear that Jaxon is getting closer, and the strides he’s made on offense are evident. But until he balances both sides of the ball with that talent, perhaps in free agency, but likelier in the Rookie Draft (As he did when he selected Bolton), it’s going to continue to be a hurry up and wait situation for Green Bay.
Projected division finish: 4th
Minnesota Vikings (Matt)
Last year’s finish: 5th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Finished one place higher than in 2019, by all measures but winning another championship, 2020 was a success for the Vikings. Matt won his rivalry with Chris, and dominated his division (Though, granted, it was a particularly down year), cake-walking into the playoffs, where he ran through a slightly-down Eagles team, and right into a Falcons’ team that was proving its postseason salt for the first time. The point totals weren’t as high as we expected, and that fault lay squarely on the Vikings’ defense. The unit finished 21st in the league—a finish that was actually two places up from the unit’s 2019 placing, though the 2019 defense scored about 10 more points. So bad was Minnesota’s defense last year, that no other contender finished with fewer defensive points…and yet, the Vikings finished with the fourth-most points in the league. How, you may ask, given that seemingly defensive discrepancy? Well, remember the part above about Green Bay’s defense? Yeah, go ahead and disregard that (In this case at least). Because how did the Vikings put up so many points with a dreadful defense (For a contender at least)? How about fielding the third-most powerful offense of all-time? Matt’s offense went off for 85.35 PPG, which includes two weeks of missing out on Justin Herbert being in there: One due to Anthony Lynn not knowing what the fuck he was doing, and the other because doctors punctured starter (Up until that point) Tyrod Taylor’s lung minutes before the game, and the game was already underway before that fact was announced (Thanks, Anthony Lynn, you dick Signed, Fantasy Football players). Herbert was so exceptional in 2020, that he bested Baker Mayfield’s rookie TD record on a team that was addicted to losing. But it wasn’t just fantastic play from the rookie. Up-and-down that offensive lineup, there were fantasy superstars. Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, Hunter Henry, and after a trade of an injured Courtland Sutton, even Jamison Crowder for a few games. So littered with talent was Minnesota’s offense, that even subtracting the rookie Herbert’s performance, Minnesota would’ve still ranked inside the top-half of all teams in offensive points. While the Vikings slightly downgraded from the 2020 iteration, swapping Amari Cooper out for Henry Ruggs—Perhaps a better long-term move (And a 2-for-1 when accounting for the defensive player he acquired in that deal as well), and Jamison Crowder (And in effect, Courtland Sutton) for Tre’Quan Smith/DeSean Jackson, and, well, a less enticing Jamison Crowder, who is now fighting for reps with wünderkind (Look at me, TWO umlauts in the same divisional preview) Elijah Moore. While that spot, as well as Hunter Henry’s, may now be downgraded, there is no reason for the Vikings to score any fewer offensive points per game than they did in 2020—health provided. Now let’s take a look at that defense, shall we? And, first impressions, it’s nowhere nearly as stinky on paper as it performed. So why did it stink it up? Well, despite pouring multiple First Round picks into defense in consecutive seasons, those players generally didn’t pan out for Matt. Starting with Jarrad Davis, MIN spent firsts in 2017, 2018 (Rashaan Evans), 2019 (Germaine Pratt), and 2020, in effect (Bryce Love and Mack Wilson), as Matt traded his future picks for those players during the draft. In hindsight, it’s easy to see why the defense fell off. For one, Davis became a part-time player for the first time last year, and despite some promising signs, the Browns bailed on Mack Wilson as a starter early into his tenure with them. By the trade deadline, none of Davis, Wilson, or even Takitaki—an end of the Third Round shot in the dark, perhaps now the best of the three—were on Minnesota’s roster anymore. That necessitated Matt going out to make a trade to improve his defense, and it appears he did so in that aforementioned Cooper trade, netting not only Henry Ruggs, but also Kenneth Murray, who instantly steps in as the best defender on MIN’s roster. While Rashaan Evans and Germaine Pratt remain, neither has quite developed into the players they were envisioned to be, with Evans a nice fantasy contributor, but not much more, and Pratt barely startable for a contender through two seasons. Both can still improve, as they’re only 25, and if they do, Minnesota’s defensive problems will turn on a dime really quickly. Matt has attempted to fortify that problem by signing a cadre of other potential fill-in LBs, including Von Miller, former Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith (A sham, as Kam Chancellor was definitely the MVP of that game), Reggie Ragland, Davion Taylor, Quincy Williams, and A.J. Klein. Maybe some of them will work out, but you can’t fault the process of trying to address those problems perhaps more economically this time, given the history. But in that quest to improve the middle of the defense, Minnesota has left itself vulnerable, with only two viable DBs (Though very good ones), and two defensive linemen as well. For what seems like the umpteenth year, the Vikings return Frank Clark and Arden Key along the line, with nobody else on the roster. Given Clark’s precipitous dropoff in play (Or at least sack volume), and Key’s inability to make any kind of waves through three professional seasons, this may be the worst defensive line unit in the league. At defensive back, Harris and Marcus Maye are great, but recently-dropped Sheldrick Redwins (Signed by the Jets) is the only backup. The Vikings will have to supplement those positions for depth, perhaps intensively, to improve the unit until it’s up to snuff.
X-factor: Defense. This one is pretty simple. Even though the defense as a whole has been significantly improved, there is almost nothing to be said/worth saying about improving the offense. It will once again be among the very best. Defensively, despite the major work, more improvements are needed. While the Vikings’ offense can win games almost by itself, as not many teams can hold a candle to that unit, when going up against true contenders, Minnesota will need improved play out of its defense to stay on terms with them. While I don’t project the division will be nearly as bad as it was a year ago (And may even field 2, or even 3 playoff teams), I still think the Vikings are far and away the best roster in the North—though the margins are certainly closer than they were 12 months ago.
Projected division finish: 1st
Remember to watch out for the fifth of our divisional previews tomorrow, this time the NFC East. Thanks again guys.
Last year, three teams in the NFC North finished among the bottom-11 in the league, setting a path for the Vikings to repeat as division champions for the first time. Entering 2021, Charlie has been replaced by an energetic, and eager GM in Miller. If he doesn’t have the temperament to improve this Chicago team, at least he’s willing to put in the time/effort. Likewise, big gains are being made by the division’s other two teams, Detroit and Green Bay. While It’s still difficult to differentiate the three, to some degree, it’s certainly possible that all three are in playoff contention as deep as the final week of the regular season. It’s also possible that the division sends as many as three teams to the postseason for the first time in years. But, hypothetically speaking, who will those teams be? Will Miller turn Chicago’s fortunes around in Year-1? Will Christian be able to shake off the jarring injury to his top-draft pick, and keep his upward trajectory he was on, based on his off-season moves and commitments? Will Jaxon be able to build another offensive juggernaut in this division as well? And will Minnesota be able to improve its defense? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Chicago Bears (Miller)
Last year’s finish: 25th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: Miller burst onto the scene in this league, making trades from the word go (Including a trade rape of yours truly with his first deal). Sadly, while there has been a dizzying amount of activity since, it has not been enough to satiate Miller’s appetite for destruction—of Charlie’s roster—which, of course, needed destroying. With that flurry of players constantly moving in and out, it’s nearly impossible to track the capital of it all. While initially, Miller intimated a desire to add picks, he has since dispensed with all of those, to make an attempt to compete this season, it would seem. But does he have the horses? Let’s take a look. Looking immediately at the offense, there are a lot of young, high-upside players on the roster, including second-year signal caller (And recently-minted starter) Jalen Hurts. While he does possess desirable athletic traits, and mostly showed out upon his being given a chance late last year, he also stumbled several times, and gave some cause for concern with his streakiness. As a pro QB prospect (And as a fantasy one), he does carry a lot of risk—but if he can replicate his short sample size showing (Say that five times fast), he carries enormous potential to be a top-10, even top-5 QB in this league. At running back, Miller traded for Austin Ekeler, who, provided he can stay healthy, carries a good chance of being a top-10 back in this league. Since he took over as the Chargers’ primary backfield option in 2019, few have been better fantasy PPR format bets. He also possesses Sony Michel, a bit of a disappointment in New England, who will now be taking over a large percentage of the snaps in Los Angeles after Cam Akers’ injury. At wide receiver, the Bears are certainly top-heavy, with Brandon Cooks, James Washington, Marquez Callaway, and not much else—though are deep at TE, with Jared Cook, Hayden Hurst, Tyler Kroft, and Noah Gray, all except for the final name expected to be starters for their respective teams (Assuming Atlanta lines up in 2TE formations a fair amount of the time). Defensively, the unit is about the definition of average. Linebackers Alex Singleton and Cory Littleton lead the way at linebacker; though each has seen their roles reduce even before the season has begun. At defensive back, likely the Bears’ top position on that side of the ball, Tracy Walker, Khari Willis, Keanu Neal, Xavier McKinney, and Lonnie Johnson lead the way. It’s a deep group that is among the league’s best secondary units. Along the line, high upside bets, in former first rounder Josh Allen, and the aged but still effective Carlos Dunlap man the position. The bench, however, is pretty sparse, with only rookies Jayson Oweh, Jamien Sherwood, Talanoa Hufanga, and the aforementioned McKinney under his charge.
X-factor: Linebacker/depth. The biggest issues for this Chicago team are the lack of depth—particularly at linebacker, wide receiver, and along the defensive line. No doubt, there are going to be holes when you are attempting to turn around a franchise that was in shambles for nearly the last decade in this league, but those are the main obstacles to the Bears competing this year. Miller tore down and rebuilt, but Rome was not built in a day, as they say. Before he can compete with the league’s elite—a really stark and astounding thing to be saying a year from being completely off the map in terms of contention—he must address those issues. As of right now, it’s a middle of the road roster, with some definite highlights. By about every measure though, Miller’s activity, and consequently his roster, is better than Charlie’s top-heavy, several assets, then 10-or-so players who were fringe players who maybe shouldn’t have even been rostered, and trade the farm just to end up conveying top-5 picks strategy.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Detroit Lions (Christian)
Last year’s finish: 26th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: On the eve of the 2020 season, Christian made one of the most grotesquely one-sided trades in league history, shipping off surprise late off-season addition, and freshly named Patriots starter Cam Newton for Indianapolis’ First Round pick—a pick which ultimately ended up conveying as 1.1. While the move was applauded by many (Despite the steep price and Newton’s exorbitant salary in this league), and J.R.’s new QB got off to a hot start, he faded significantly down the stretch—still never looking the same since his 2018 injury—throwing more interceptions than touchdowns, and failing to make the necessary additions all season long that could’ve fortified that team—a team which had plenty of talent at the top of its roster. For Detrot’s purposes, Christian understood that he wasn’t set up long-term contention, and instead of faking it and trying to prop up an unsturdy base (Just like my Spanish classes in college), he purposefully put his eggs into the future basket. Come the beginning of the off-season, and Christian held a high UFA pick, as well as two of the top-7 rookie picks. With those, he managed to snag Matt Ryan in a draft day trade that saw him move 1.1 with Brooks, allowing him to do a positional two-for-one (Though it also cost him his dream prospect, and the offensive position most in need, in TE Kyle Pitts, who was gone by the time Christian picked at 1.5). Ultimately, Christian opted to double up with Josh Jacobs at running back, selecting Travis Etienne. However, in one of the most unkind blows to any team this pre-season, lost him for the year to the dreaded Lisfranc (No, not Liz Frank) injury in his foot. That pretty well upended the depth that the Lions had at the position, taking Christian from a source of power, to a vulnerability given Josh Jacobs’ intermittent issues with staying healthy. Jacobs alone is an excellent starting option, but the loss of Etienne removes the Lions from the list of a few teams that could boast having a running back in both the RB and RWT spots—a spot which now presumably falls to A.J. Green or Quez Watkins—likely a big downgrade. At wideout, Detroit boasts a large contingent of numbers, including First Round pick and do everything player, Rondale Moore, and the perpetually underwhelming (Mostly due to injuries) Tyrell Williams. If Williams is able to stay on the field, and is able to recapture his form from San Diego (And the very early period from his Raiders’ “career”) for the real life Lions, he could be a serious asset to Christian. Comprising the bench are a number of previous dynasty darlings who are trying to reclaim their once promising careers, with the likes of Andy Isabella (Who’s this fantasy generation’s version of Jeff Janis, as he blows up every time he gets on the field, but somehow has been mothballed the past two years—though in this group, him being any higher than fourth or MAYBE third is hard to defend), John Ross (Whose injuries, and inability to run anything other than a go route have relegated him to the same career trajectory as former Giant and fellow über-bust—at least to this point—Corey Coleman), and Scotty Miller (Similarly go-route minded, and similarly demoted on the depth chart, due to the signing of a non-consensual back-masturbating, foot-freezing, safe helmet-hating, non bill-paying, property-destroying, curse-out-the-HOA-board shouting provocateur—and the immense talent of the Tampa Bay wide receivers). Additionally, surprise Eagles’ third receiver Quez Watkins, rookie tight end Brevin Jordan (Who is either a dynamic playmaker with the ball in his hands, or an in-line blocker depending on which prognosticator you ask), and everyone’s favorite bye week fill-in at QB (Provided he stays at that position) in Taysom Hill. On the defensive side of the ball, you get a little bit of every flavor from Detroit. You have grizzled, proven veterans like Ndamukong Suh, and Adrian Amos, former First Round linebackers in Deion Jones, and Leighton Vander Esch (The former a force that still is among the best fantasy IDP bets in the game, though the latter already a walking injury, despite possessing unimpeachable talent), a litany of creative finds, like Jordan Whitehead, Justin Van Ginkel, and DeShon Elliott, and blue chip players in L.J. Collier and Justin Strnad (Whom my spell check hates), who for various reasons (Mostly youth), haven’t broken out yet, but may do so after being slated for more time than previous years. While the defensive line and linebacker positions are in at least good shape, just like Chicago, it’s the secondary that really shines for Detroit. In Whitehead, Elliott (Who became an emergency starter last year, and never relinquished the role), and Amos (Who had a bit of a down year for himself, but came on strong down the stretch), the Lions have one of the best and most-underrated secondaries in the league. Add to that a very promising rookie in Jacksonville, with Andre Cisco, and you have a team that could dominate at that position. To repeat last year’s prediction on this side of the ball: it should be among the better defenses in the league, though probably not significantly above average.
X-factor: Health from here on out. Clearly, the injury gods did Christian no favors when they took away his top draft pick on the eve of the season, but if he should be able to sustain near pristine health from here on out, I think he has JUST enough to get past Miller to be the second-best team in this division. I think Detroit’s overall depth is superior, and while there are still holes in his roster as well, the fact that mostly veterans make up his bench vs. the number of unproven rookies that make up Chicago’s (Especially on defense) make the difference. That, and—though I don’t presently see a real path for a ton of playing time—I’m not yet convinced the LVE is done playing at a really high level. It frankly comes down to this: I’m going against my gut, and against the better team as of today (Chicago), because I think a lot of the Lions’ players are going to surprise and outperform expectations.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Green Bay Packers (Jaxon)
Last year’s finish: 22nd (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: After another season of subpar results (Telling, considering that a 22nd place finish was good enough for 2nd in the NFC North), Jaxon just put his head down, went back to the Rookie Draft, added Jaylen Waddle, Amari Rodgers, Nick Bolton, Gregory Rousseau, Kyle Trask, Joseph Ossai, and Nick Niemann—then added a starting quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater for good measure…and yet, is likely to find himself back in the same position this year. While the offense has made consistent, gargantuan leaps each of the past few years, Jaxon’s approach to filling his defense has often been hands off—or at least an insignificant commitment to anyone other than young players who have potential to make an impact down the line. Unfortunately, heretofore, that strategy has yet to pay off. But let’s start with the good, which is the territory where this offense currently resides. Bridgewater is a solid starting quarterback, though perhaps a skosh below that as a fantasy entity, and with likely a superior talent behind him on Denver’s bench. If he maintains the job throughout the season though, he does have a tremendous WR group around him, which could elevate his play—though the conservative, checkdown-heavy thrower will have to throw the ball downfield more to take advantage of it. Running back, however, is perhaps the most-glaring hole on offense, with none of Tony Pollard, Nyheim Hines, or Benny Snell possessing a lead-back role. That said, Tony Pollard is unmistakably the best running back on his team in 2021, and while there are about $90 million reasons the Cowboys’ refuse to see that, even teams that make mistakes in extending players whose best years are behind them, few owners will accept losing less than Jerry Jones—though already as a Dallas institution, I wouldn’t bet on Elliott being moved or cut loose completely, even if Pollard is actually given the chance to wrest away the majority of reps at the position. A better long-term play than a short-term one, Pollard still has the ability to make that jump over the next few years. Regarding Hines, there were many occasions in which he was the best RB play in Indianapolis last year—though those chances of repeating take a hit with the further crowding of the Colts’ backfield with the return of Marlon Mack. He still is likely the top-passing back for that team, but it does endanger making his fantasy successes of a year ago, fleeting. Wide receiver, comparatively, in great shape, with the Packers sporting one of the best young WR corps in the league. Last year, Jaxon took one of the best WRs in the draft, in rookie CeeDee Lamb, and later Van Jefferson. This year, he doubled up with Alabama speedster Jaylen Waddle, and then Amari Rodgers. Whether the latter two of those picks will pan out, or break free from their expected limited roles in 2021, is a mystery. But with that group, none of whom are over 25—and with only Jefferson above 22—it’s clear that there is core of young talent at the position, the likes of which may not be matched elsewhere in the league. Jauan Jennings is also a player with an impressive collegiate profile, though he is presently buried on the 49ers depth chart. Oh, and who can forget about young and productive TE Noah Fant? Jaxon is putting himself in position to have a dominant offense, and soon. Defensively, Green Bay is, well…improved, but still far from a finished product. While the additions of Bolton, Rousseau, and to a lesser extent Ossai, and Niemann, will help, there are very few impact players for 2021. That Bolton, in fact, may lead the defense in points year-1, speaks volumes about the state of the unit. While not an indemnification of the player himself, it’s rarely a good thing when a rookie has the ability to step onto a roster and become the most impactful player on his side of the ball. While other quality pieces exist, like Antoine Winfield, and Chase Winovich, there are many more like Duke Riley, Brandon Jones, Amani Hooker, Ulysses Gilbert, Dennis Gardeck, and Ty Summers, who have never been better than league average. Overall, the offense could break into the top-half this year, whereas the defense is likelier to finish dead last than to make that same jump.
X-factor: Defense and time. Another case of a previous X-factor repeating itself, Green Bay is still a year or more away, and that’s solely because of the lack of talent and depth on the defensive side of the ball. It’s clear that Jaxon is getting closer, and the strides he’s made on offense are evident. But until he balances both sides of the ball with that talent, perhaps in free agency, but likelier in the Rookie Draft (As he did when he selected Bolton), it’s going to continue to be a hurry up and wait situation for Green Bay.
Projected division finish: 4th
Minnesota Vikings (Matt)
Last year’s finish: 5th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Finished one place higher than in 2019, by all measures but winning another championship, 2020 was a success for the Vikings. Matt won his rivalry with Chris, and dominated his division (Though, granted, it was a particularly down year), cake-walking into the playoffs, where he ran through a slightly-down Eagles team, and right into a Falcons’ team that was proving its postseason salt for the first time. The point totals weren’t as high as we expected, and that fault lay squarely on the Vikings’ defense. The unit finished 21st in the league—a finish that was actually two places up from the unit’s 2019 placing, though the 2019 defense scored about 10 more points. So bad was Minnesota’s defense last year, that no other contender finished with fewer defensive points…and yet, the Vikings finished with the fourth-most points in the league. How, you may ask, given that seemingly defensive discrepancy? Well, remember the part above about Green Bay’s defense? Yeah, go ahead and disregard that (In this case at least). Because how did the Vikings put up so many points with a dreadful defense (For a contender at least)? How about fielding the third-most powerful offense of all-time? Matt’s offense went off for 85.35 PPG, which includes two weeks of missing out on Justin Herbert being in there: One due to Anthony Lynn not knowing what the fuck he was doing, and the other because doctors punctured starter (Up until that point) Tyrod Taylor’s lung minutes before the game, and the game was already underway before that fact was announced (Thanks, Anthony Lynn, you dick Signed, Fantasy Football players). Herbert was so exceptional in 2020, that he bested Baker Mayfield’s rookie TD record on a team that was addicted to losing. But it wasn’t just fantastic play from the rookie. Up-and-down that offensive lineup, there were fantasy superstars. Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, Hunter Henry, and after a trade of an injured Courtland Sutton, even Jamison Crowder for a few games. So littered with talent was Minnesota’s offense, that even subtracting the rookie Herbert’s performance, Minnesota would’ve still ranked inside the top-half of all teams in offensive points. While the Vikings slightly downgraded from the 2020 iteration, swapping Amari Cooper out for Henry Ruggs—Perhaps a better long-term move (And a 2-for-1 when accounting for the defensive player he acquired in that deal as well), and Jamison Crowder (And in effect, Courtland Sutton) for Tre’Quan Smith/DeSean Jackson, and, well, a less enticing Jamison Crowder, who is now fighting for reps with wünderkind (Look at me, TWO umlauts in the same divisional preview) Elijah Moore. While that spot, as well as Hunter Henry’s, may now be downgraded, there is no reason for the Vikings to score any fewer offensive points per game than they did in 2020—health provided. Now let’s take a look at that defense, shall we? And, first impressions, it’s nowhere nearly as stinky on paper as it performed. So why did it stink it up? Well, despite pouring multiple First Round picks into defense in consecutive seasons, those players generally didn’t pan out for Matt. Starting with Jarrad Davis, MIN spent firsts in 2017, 2018 (Rashaan Evans), 2019 (Germaine Pratt), and 2020, in effect (Bryce Love and Mack Wilson), as Matt traded his future picks for those players during the draft. In hindsight, it’s easy to see why the defense fell off. For one, Davis became a part-time player for the first time last year, and despite some promising signs, the Browns bailed on Mack Wilson as a starter early into his tenure with them. By the trade deadline, none of Davis, Wilson, or even Takitaki—an end of the Third Round shot in the dark, perhaps now the best of the three—were on Minnesota’s roster anymore. That necessitated Matt going out to make a trade to improve his defense, and it appears he did so in that aforementioned Cooper trade, netting not only Henry Ruggs, but also Kenneth Murray, who instantly steps in as the best defender on MIN’s roster. While Rashaan Evans and Germaine Pratt remain, neither has quite developed into the players they were envisioned to be, with Evans a nice fantasy contributor, but not much more, and Pratt barely startable for a contender through two seasons. Both can still improve, as they’re only 25, and if they do, Minnesota’s defensive problems will turn on a dime really quickly. Matt has attempted to fortify that problem by signing a cadre of other potential fill-in LBs, including Von Miller, former Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith (A sham, as Kam Chancellor was definitely the MVP of that game), Reggie Ragland, Davion Taylor, Quincy Williams, and A.J. Klein. Maybe some of them will work out, but you can’t fault the process of trying to address those problems perhaps more economically this time, given the history. But in that quest to improve the middle of the defense, Minnesota has left itself vulnerable, with only two viable DBs (Though very good ones), and two defensive linemen as well. For what seems like the umpteenth year, the Vikings return Frank Clark and Arden Key along the line, with nobody else on the roster. Given Clark’s precipitous dropoff in play (Or at least sack volume), and Key’s inability to make any kind of waves through three professional seasons, this may be the worst defensive line unit in the league. At defensive back, Harris and Marcus Maye are great, but recently-dropped Sheldrick Redwins (Signed by the Jets) is the only backup. The Vikings will have to supplement those positions for depth, perhaps intensively, to improve the unit until it’s up to snuff.
X-factor: Defense. This one is pretty simple. Even though the defense as a whole has been significantly improved, there is almost nothing to be said/worth saying about improving the offense. It will once again be among the very best. Defensively, despite the major work, more improvements are needed. While the Vikings’ offense can win games almost by itself, as not many teams can hold a candle to that unit, when going up against true contenders, Minnesota will need improved play out of its defense to stay on terms with them. While I don’t project the division will be nearly as bad as it was a year ago (And may even field 2, or even 3 playoff teams), I still think the Vikings are far and away the best roster in the North—though the margins are certainly closer than they were 12 months ago.
Projected division finish: 1st
Remember to watch out for the fifth of our divisional previews tomorrow, this time the NFC East. Thanks again guys.