Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Aug 31, 2021 16:04:06 GMT -5
AFC NORTH
2020 was an unprecedented year all around, and that was never more true than in Fantasy Football—And by extension, the AFC North. Injuries, COVID absences, and even stat corrected score changes, oh my! While the Bengals managed to stay atop the division—and the Steelers fell even further—Cincinnati displayed its frailty when losing the top-player in fantasy football. Still a powerhouse without him, with one of the top defenses in league history, they more than got by, but were snake bitten on a number of occasions due to losing his output, ending up at 8-4, and with a First Round playoff exit for the first time since 2016. Cleveland and Baltimore hovered near the middle again, though Kevin’s Browns really came on, and narrowly missed another playoff berth. Given the rebuilding nature of three of these teams, it’s an open question what the division hierarchy will look like this year. Will this be Chris’ final hurrah at the top of the North? Can Garrett reclaim his throne from a now bygone era of dominance? Can Kevin or Goose insert their names into the discussion, perhaps a year sooner than anticipated (Now at least)? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Baltimore Ravens (Goose)
Last year’s finish: 29th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Compared to his previous two seasons (Each 5-7 efforts), 2020 was a noticeable step back for the Ravens, finishing 3-9 in the league, and last in the AFC North. It was perhaps not surprising that a team I had highlighted as a year or two away from contention had a significant dropoff in win total after two-straight just under .500 finishes. But the way it occurred was definitely a shock: It was Goose’s superior offensive unit that let him down. One year later, it’s difficult to ascertain what all went wrong, other than run of the mill injuries, and a different party not showing up in any given week. That inconsistency drove Baltimore’s output down, despite several of those players having exemplary performances at other junctures of the season. Unfortunately, for Goose, General Sam Houston and his reinforcements are not on the way, as he got the worst possible news just hours ago, on the eve of the regular season, losing his top-running back and offensive player, J.K. Dobbins to a season-ending ACL injury in the Ravens’ final pre-season game. With that in mind, it severely caps what kind of improvements that Baltimore can make this year. However, the injury to Dobbins does not in and of itself prevent others from making improvements, particularly in a fantasy setting where the players are not on the same gridiron roster. The biggest improvement Goose will have to hope for is from Sam Darnold, his quarterback, and now reclamation project for the Carolina Panthers. If he’s able to be rehabbed to some semblance of what he was coming out of USC—a talented, albeit flawed player—that would be a relief for this Baltimore team, and provide some clarity heading into the final year of his rookie deal in 2022. The silver lining overall, though, is that this offense truly is better than it performed in 2020 when healthy, and prior to Dobbins injury, I expected that to worm to turn this year. As a rookie, J.K. Dobbins took the lion’s share of carries in a true RBBC (Plus a quarterback that likes to pull it for himself quite often). He had a prime opportunity without Baltimore having to show fealty to a veteran in a clearly decrepit and done Mark Ingram, and was in line for even more opportunities to show out, and build on his solid first year. Now, Goose will have to rely on another exciting rookie RB that he added via the Rookie Draft, in Javonte Williams. While it would’ve been a tantalizing proposition to be starting two backs with the talents of Dobbins nd Williams on a weekly basis—even if both were to be committee backs—even having one isn’t the worst result, and could still push his points floor past many of his 2020 outputs. At wide receiver, John Brown (Who reportedly now may not even make the Raiders’ team) and Sterling Shepard return, though each were key to those inconsistencies on offense last season. Additionally, Devin Duvernay and Jalen Hurd are back, though Hurd has not taken an NFL snap across his first two years (And JUST was healthy enough to get pre-season run in the Niners’ third and final preliminary game), and Duvernay, though sublimely talented, may only be used as a return man, after real-life Baltimore set out to ruin as many rookie receivers’ careers as they could in the NFL Draft and free agency this year, burying names like Duvernay under multiple, capable bodies with medium-to-high draft capital. Goose also drafted Josh Palmer, who is considered prospect-y in a few corners of the draftnik community, but who also has some ascension to do against a talented depth chart before he gets any serious run. It’s unclear what to expect from this unit, but there is a lot of talent. At tight end, Dallas Goedert is back, and hopefully healthy for a full season, as his injury helped to doom Baltimore’s season as much as any non-Darnold offensive player. While Zach Ertz’s return to Philadelphia likely cannibalizes each of the two tight ends’ outlooks by a fair degree, with the state of the position in 2021, he’ll still be near the top if he simply repeats his per-game statistics. Additionally, Adam Trautman came on later in the year for New Orleans, posting several decent or better games as a rookie, and without Jared Cook to block his path anymore, may become the Saints’ primary tight end (Though Taysom Hill should have a lot to say about this now that he didn’t win the QB job). Overall, it’s a unit that should score well more than the measly 448 points that it stumbled to in 2020, a figure that was second-worst in the league. That said, the defense, which was middle of the road last year, is due for regression. Whilst Baltimore’s returning quartet of Malcolm Jenkins, Derek Barnett, Cameron Heyward, and Hasson Reddick should all be solid or better (And with the addition of Jadeveon Clowney, and K’Lavon Chaisson likely playing with his hand in the ground) it’s quite possible the Ravens sport the best DL in the league), linebacker in particular is bereft of top talent, with only Tyus Bowser, the unsigned B.J. Goodson, and rookie pick Azeez Ojulari, it’s clear that there is going to be a points vacuum in the middle of the defense at present. The composition itself (Assuming that I’m right on positionality, and including rookies)—7 DL, 3 LB, and 5 DBs is a little puzzling, but probably impacted by the fact that three of the players currently listed as LB, will likely be reclassified as DL before the season begins (Clowney, Reddick, and Chaisson). Probably the best thing to do would be to trade from that bevvy of DL talent to supplement the linebacking corps a touch (Or more). At the back, outside of Jenkins and perhaps Taron Johnson—who had a breakout campaign—unfortunately, it isn’t really clear where the points will come from. Goose has been able to rely on Tre Boston every year in the past, waiting until the last possible minute to sign with a team, and then outperforming expectations that were somehow low despite a near-half decade of that consistent track record. However, last year was his worst over that span, and he remains in street clothes (Which belies that strange yearly phenomenon, so perhaps he gets invited in out of the cold by some team looking for a playmaker on the ball). Ronnie Harrison contributed a year ago, but at nowhere near the rate he did the year before in Jacksonville. Now, he faces a difficult path to snaps, with the Browns inking the top-two DBs in free agency, adding to an existing crowded unit.
X-factor: Linebacker. The same as last year, linebacker continues to be the weak point for the Ravens, and as of yet, Goose’s investments haven’t paid off when addressing the position. If the offense improves, but the defense takes a step back, we’re looking for a team that will again struggle to match up against the top-half of the league on a weekly basis. If having a healthy Dobbins meant the Ravens would’ve fielded a dominant offense, I could almost write off the defense being so bad in the middle. I had Baltimore solidly in third place in the division until the Dobbins injury (And within shouting distance of a playoff berth), but have to bump them back to fourth now. Possessing two first rounders next year, it appears that Goose has a choice: He could use perhaps one of them, and trade from a position of strength (Like DL) for a top-linebacker (Or even just decent starters) to bring this unit up to snuff. Otherwise, he is likely content to take his lumps, and keep playing the long game. If it’s the latter choice, could be another painful campaign for Baltimore.
Projected division finish: 4th
Cincinnati Bengals (Chris)
Last year’s finish: 13th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Just as Garrett’s 2018 season was a harbinger of things to come—And also a testament to how much one player missing (Le’Veon Bell) can define a team’s season, Chris’ 2020 was potentially the cracks in the wall of the Hoover Dam. Granted, while he still managed to produce the second-highest scoring defensive season of all-time (And highest all-time before we made the switch from stuffs to TFL after Fantrax was scoring them inaccurately/missing many of them), the Bengals were still several hundred points off from their 2019 season, which saw Chris lead the league in points, and set the record for second-most points in a season (Bested of course by Cecil a year later, whose own 2018 mark will stand as the untouchable top-spot in perpetuity). While McCaffrey missed parts of 13 games with various soft tissue injuries in 2020, he was on pace to best even his own 2019 effort, which was the single-best fantasy season for a RB in history, averaging 30 PPG. If he is able to come anywhere near that, and re-form the 1-2 punch that Chris was able to get out of him and QB Baker Mayfield in 2018 (Though since then, he’s never gotten that terrific play from both at the same time), he’ll will be lifting that imaginary trophy (As the league has not been able to get a commitment for an actual trophy from a plurality of members yet) a few short months from now. Even if he does not though, Chris secured himself perhaps a more reliable backup plan, and second starting running back in Melvin Gordon. Though he is a bit aged in running back years (Offset slightly by his 2019 holdout), and now competing with Javonte Williams for a stranglehold on the Broncos’ backfield work, he should provide a solid 10 PPG or more floor, as he has every year of his career (Outside of his rookie campaign) to-date. Furthermore, it appears as Chris took that message of needing running backs to heart, trading a 2nd Round pick, as well as promising EDGE Uchenna Nwosu to Cleveland for presumed Texans’ starter Phillip Lindsay, and former DB-turned-LB David Long, who got some run a year ago as an injury fill-in for Jayon Brown—and there are many within the Titans organization who believe Long is the eventual successor to Brown’s spot (As his contract is up at the end of this year), though some prognosticators (Including this one) believe it will happen sooner than that. He also won a bid for Carlos Hyde right before the end of the pre-season, after a combination of his play, and the season-ending injury to Travis Etienne. Beyond those names, Cincinnati also has D’Ernest Johnson, who had a few blow up games a year ago, both before and after Nick Chubb went down, and would step into a significant role as an early down back if that happened again. Wide receiver, however, is the Bengals’ biggest problem area. After years of investment, it could certainly be argued that Chris neglected to keep adding at the position, and therefore finds himself in this spot today. Whereas the Cooper Kupp trade/acquisition (Which also netted him Blake Martinez and Julian Edelman) was a masterstroke, it is now approaching five years since that time, and the only significant names added since then were Dede Westrbook (Later in that draft, and then traded away), Stefon Diggs (Who was traded away only to re-acquire Westbrook—who was then released and re-acquired again this off-season), Emmanuel Sanders (Whom the Bengals traded away this off-season for the pick that ultimately acquired Lindsay), a few games of Alshon Jeffrey (In a trade that was nearly vetoed for being too strong, though it ended up being a runaway for NYJ), and current WRs Jakobi Meyers, and Tim Patrick. That’s why it was so important for Cincinnati to invest in a WR THIS YEAR, which is exactly what Chris did by trading up and getting his guy, in star-in-the making Terrace Marshall Jr., who graded out as the top-rookie wideout of the pre-season. The former #1 recruit prior to a serious leg injury that set him back and sapped his explosion for nearly two years, once led the cohort of Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and himself as LSU’s #1 wideout halfway through the 2019 season, when he was beset by a broken bone in his foot. Despite competing with them for targets, Marshall managed to have a penchant for scoring touchdowns at the best rate in FBS on a per-catch basis, finding paydirt a staggering 23 times over his final 19 games, including 10 in only 7 games before opting out a year ago with a literal clown show roulette under center for the Tigers. How fast he comes along in Carolina’s crowded passing game will be key to Cincinnati’s chances. At tight end, Mark Andrews reprises his role, but after a scary scene in training camp where he passed out, as well as missing time in 2020 with COVID, there are concerns about his health. Andrews, a diabetic, is more prone to other maladies, which is one of the reasons Chris grabbed Kyle Rudolph as a backup/bye week plugin for 2021. While he himself is fighting through some injuries, he has a long history of production, and given the lack of trust the Giants seem to have in Evan Engram, it’s possible they turn the page on him sometime this season, and defer to the reliable veteran. Defensively, it’s hard to find many faults on what threatens to be the best unit in the league for a third year running. The heart of the unit is as strong as ever, with Lavonte David being added to the triumvirate of Blake Martinez, Zach Cunningham, and Trey Edmunds, the league’s top-LB corps since they were paired together in 2018. While losing Budda Baker will hurt, Chris effectively traded him outright for David, so at worst it’s a wash. To replace Baker, alongside Kevin Byard, Cincy has taken several high-upside names at DB and rolled the dice. Three projected opening day starters at safety, including former first rounder Malik Hooker, now with the Cowboys, Rodney McLeod (Who will start as soon as he’s healthy after tearing his ACL late last year), and Erik Harris headline the group, though prior to yesterday’s announcement that Malcolm Butler was considering walking away from the game due to a personal issue, he may have been the best of the bunch. It’s a deep group of fantasy-relevant names—though Byard may be the only standout. Elsewhere, the Benglas return Emmanuel Ogbah, fresh off his best year, and solid contributors Lawrence Guy, and recent re-minted Minnesota Viking, Everson Griffen. Additionally, Chris has more depth options in Mychal Kendricks (Now finally free and clear from insider trading charges—though now on IR with the Niners), and Long. Those trades for/signings of these ancillary pieces should be enough to allow Chris’ defense to fulfill that mission of being the best on the side of the ball that wins championships (And yet…) once more, and perhaps for a final season given all the contract math issues that the Bengals run into next year.
X-factor: Health and WR. In terms of his starting lineup, Chris should be fine, as he boasts one of the top-three or four in the league in that department. But as last year so amply proved (When Cincinnati lost four regular season games), certain players aren’t replaceable. That is even more the case when the other areas, such as WR, are unable to more than hold up their end in case of injury. It’s incumbent for any team to stay healthy, but for the Bengals, losing a player like McCaffrey again could end up tumbling all of the dominoes, that precipitates a fall from the division champion and championship contender to a middle-of-the-road team. For at least one more season, however, Cincinnati is good enough to hold off a strong push from Garrett’s Steelers, and win a third-straight division crown.
Projected division finish: 1st
Cleveland Browns (Kevin)
Last year’s finish: 17th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Cleveland finished 6-6 last year, good enough for second in the division, and nearly landing a playoff berth. One of several teams to make my predictions look stupid (I had them fourth), the Browns rode the magical seasons of Kyler Murray, Mike Davis, T.J. Watt, and Neville Hewitt to elevate them above the sum of their parts. While three of those four return, the one outgoing player of the bunch (Mike Davis) is all but certain to start as the bell cow for the Atlanta Falcons, and the lack of other available options on this roster could be a harbinger of what lies ahead—as navigating a season without the likes of a starting running back is perilous at best—at least in the history of this league. Additionally, Hewitt, who was thrust into action for the Jets due to injuries in consecutive years, has no clear role in Houston’s who’s who of linebackers auditioning for a part-time role next to the only one guaranteed a spot (Zach Cunningham). That means a lot of heavy lifting is going to fall on the very capable shoulders of Murray and Watt. Murray, who has very much rewarded Kevin’s use of the first overall pick from the 2019 Rookie Draft, has become one of the top-few fantasy QBs in the league, due to his running ability and friendly offensive system. With weapons galore, I don’t expect that to change at all in 2021. Watt, likewise, should be a force once again, a year after finishing second in the NFL in sacks (With 15), half a sack behind Aaron Donald’s (15.5) league-leading total. Beyond those two, however, there are no longer any sensational names, after the jettisoning of Davis and Joey Bosa in off-season trades. What is still there is a solid core of buy-low players, many of whom with time still left on their clocks, and something to prove. You can say that applies for all of the Browns’ projected non-Murray starters, in Devontae Booker (Who may get a large portion of the touches for the Giants in the early going, as they bring Saquon Barkley back slowly), Hunter Renfrow (The undrafted FA who despite carving out a role and a rapport with Raiders’ QB Derek Carr, always seems to be the forgotten man for prognosticators—including this one—every time Las Vegas gets a shiny new toy), Sammy Watkins (Once again out to prove he’s still an Alpha, after he was once the top-WR of perhaps the top draft class for many at the time), Austin Hooper (After a bit of a dud of a first season in Cleveland statistically), and Albert Wilson (The king of running backwards after the catch did just that to his career, when he took the year off in 2020 due to COVID concerns, and now finds himself buried on a stacked Miami WR depth chart). The problem is, after the dealing of Davis, and later Phillip Lindsay, in addition to a starting running back, Cleveland doesn’t have much depth to speak of on this side of the ball. Yes, Murray’s production should cover some of that up, but how much? Coming from the guy who once had Peyton Manning and no other real-life NFL offensive starter in his first year at the helm of his current franchise, I can say confidently that despite her penchant for attempting to do so, it’s not something you can just Joanna Gaines away by covering it in shiplap. On the defensive side of the ball, while Bosa is gone, I really like what Kevin did to ‘Moneyball’ this unit (Okay, well, Moneyball outside of his taking linebacker Zaven Collins with a First Round draft pick) with high-upside players, like Grant Delpit, Uchenna Nwosu, Michael Davis, and Troy Hill. While some of those players might not hit, Delpit was considered the cream of the crop of safeties in the 2020 NFL Draft before a serious leg injury led him to fall to Cleveland, and though I believe they’ll bring him along slow, I envision a player who may be a fantasy monster by year’s end. Likewise, Davis and Hill were among the highest-scoring corners in the league last year, and while he may not be Bosa (Though he’ll likely play opposite him, and benefit from his presence), Nwosu is a dangerous EDGE rusher in his own right, whose arrow is pointing up with the more opportunities he’s continued to receive/earn with LAC. Furthermore, Kyle Van Noy, and Dalvin Tomlinson are solid or better pieces, who should be expected to at least hold their own at their respective positions in most matchups. While others, like Takk McKinley, Hewitt, and Kyler Fackrell may have lost their roles in free agency, and as Jaire Alexander’s point production continues to point downward the better he becomes, each of the first three are an injury away from a significant role. Collins should start early on (If not right away, though the Jordan Hicks saga has yet to be resolved), and the combo of he and Watt—though volatile for the fact that neither are likely going to be as consistent tacklers as ILBs (Watt, because he rushes on most plays, and Collins because he’s a jack of all trades), they form a solid linchpin in the center of this defense. Once Delpit is up to speed, I could see this being a top-10-to-12 unit in the league.
X-factor: Running back/depth. It all comes back to running back for Kevin, as he likely will go as this unit does. While the lack of quality depth at other offensive positions is also a concern, I think the lack of a starter at RB is the difference between Kevin being a fringe playoff team, and one of the bottom 10-12 teams in the league. Much like Don Quixote, he had better mount his steed, deputize Sancho, and ride off in search of his beautiful Dulcinea (In this case, a starting running back).
Projected division finish: 3rd
Pittsburgh Steelers (Garrett)
Last year’s finish: 23rd (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: For a second-consecutive year, 2020 was a downer for Garrett’s Steelers, once again finishing with a losing record (4-8), and being beaten soundly (Outscored by nearly a 30 PPG margin) with regularity. It was then quite obviously a mistake to pick him second in the division a year ago, and to expect such a quick return to form. Now, here’s where I tell you that I won’t be wrong in making that same pick again, just one year later, and in fact, make the bold prediction that the Steelers will be a top-10 team in 2021 (Note: This part was written with Drew Lock as his quarterback, BEFORE Garrett went out and acquired Tom Brady recently), and it all starts with what he has done this off-season. While it was certainly a failed experiment to rebuild on the fly—As Garrett had papered over many of the glaring holes on his roster, despite a lot of talent, over the last few seasons—he managed to split the difference, so to speak, and load himself up with future draft picks. Garrett hung on to those en masse, and even made a move up the board to pick perhaps this year’s draft gem in Najee Harris, who should see immediate bellcow status in the real life Steelers’ backfield. Hoarding those picks also paid off later in the draft, as he landed Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Who may be a better real life player than a fantasy one, a la Isaiah Simmons, but who should play a lot in Cleveland’s underwhelming horde of bodies at LB), Amon-Ra St. Brown (Who might have the most nondescript tape of a WR that I’ve ever seen—just as above, is ticketed for a large role, given how impossibly bad his team’s WR corps is), and later steal Trevon Moehrig (Widely considered the top defensive back for IDP purposes in this draft). In addition to his recent trade for Brady, he also traded for Zack Moss, and picked up Anthony Firkser and Kareem Jackson in the UFA Draft, three solid if unspectacular options that should fortify his starting lineup with players who are at a minimum, unlikely to be black holes. Those additions, alongside an existing strong contingent of skill position players on offense—Including TY Hilton, Juju Smith-Schuster, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Higbee—serve to shoot Pittsburgh right back up the charts towards the top of the leaderboard, a la Happy Gilmore at the Masters. That strong infrastructure may be what allows him to not do a complete rebuild (Hard to square for a team that had a bazillion picks in this year’s draft), but also avoid being down for more than 2-3 seasons (People forget that Garrett’s 2018 squad, while going 11-1, winning the division championship, and the #2 seed in the AFC, was more like an 8-4, or even 7-5 squad statistically). Defensively, while Pittsburgh stalwart Brandon Graham returns for what seems like his one-millionth season on this roster, it by-and-large is a youth movement, ready to break out. Both Malik Harrison and Jermaine Carter have been given starting nods, and look to significantly outperform their Fantrax point projections (And who doesn’t? Still, read the ordinate word: significantly). Pittsburgh also employs the services of Falcons’ second-year LB Mykal Walker, who was a good run defender in 2020, but was among the worst third down players in the NFL a year ago. While he looks to iron that end of his game out, he could feature less on third down, with newly minted Atlanta Defensive Coordinator Dean Pees (I mean, weird flex, but okay) intimating that he wants to use more variable formations, including subbing off LBs in favor of pass rushers and defensive backs to improve his team’s league-worst pass defense. Also returning are young ball-playing DBs Nasir Adderly and J.C. Jackson, who each broke out to a degree a year ago—Especially Adderly, who after a rash of injuries at safety for the Chargers in 2019, still was banished to sit the pine in relative obscurity—and will form a solid quartet alongside the aforementioned other Jackson and Moehrig. Garrett also came away from the draft with high-upside bets Chazz Surratt, Tutu Atwell, Derrick Barnes, and Tommy Tremble, though it’s difficult to say what type of 2021 contributions any of them will make.
X-factor: Bets paying off. All in all, there is enough here to, paraphrasing Outkast’s Elevators, move Pittsburgh up in the world. Yes, the defense is young and unproven, and questions remain about the viability of some of the older hands on offense, but there are few teams who have the number of quality options that Garrett does. He can and certainly will improve his depth as the season moves on. And if in the unlikely event that I’m wrong about his outlook again, he could flip a number of serviceable players at the deadline to make himself even stronger in the long-term. But this team is going to contend sooner than most expect.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Thank you for reading this, the third in the series of Divisional Previews. I will publish the fourth installment later this week, this time the NFC North.
2020 was an unprecedented year all around, and that was never more true than in Fantasy Football—And by extension, the AFC North. Injuries, COVID absences, and even stat corrected score changes, oh my! While the Bengals managed to stay atop the division—and the Steelers fell even further—Cincinnati displayed its frailty when losing the top-player in fantasy football. Still a powerhouse without him, with one of the top defenses in league history, they more than got by, but were snake bitten on a number of occasions due to losing his output, ending up at 8-4, and with a First Round playoff exit for the first time since 2016. Cleveland and Baltimore hovered near the middle again, though Kevin’s Browns really came on, and narrowly missed another playoff berth. Given the rebuilding nature of three of these teams, it’s an open question what the division hierarchy will look like this year. Will this be Chris’ final hurrah at the top of the North? Can Garrett reclaim his throne from a now bygone era of dominance? Can Kevin or Goose insert their names into the discussion, perhaps a year sooner than anticipated (Now at least)? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Baltimore Ravens (Goose)
Last year’s finish: 29th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Compared to his previous two seasons (Each 5-7 efforts), 2020 was a noticeable step back for the Ravens, finishing 3-9 in the league, and last in the AFC North. It was perhaps not surprising that a team I had highlighted as a year or two away from contention had a significant dropoff in win total after two-straight just under .500 finishes. But the way it occurred was definitely a shock: It was Goose’s superior offensive unit that let him down. One year later, it’s difficult to ascertain what all went wrong, other than run of the mill injuries, and a different party not showing up in any given week. That inconsistency drove Baltimore’s output down, despite several of those players having exemplary performances at other junctures of the season. Unfortunately, for Goose, General Sam Houston and his reinforcements are not on the way, as he got the worst possible news just hours ago, on the eve of the regular season, losing his top-running back and offensive player, J.K. Dobbins to a season-ending ACL injury in the Ravens’ final pre-season game. With that in mind, it severely caps what kind of improvements that Baltimore can make this year. However, the injury to Dobbins does not in and of itself prevent others from making improvements, particularly in a fantasy setting where the players are not on the same gridiron roster. The biggest improvement Goose will have to hope for is from Sam Darnold, his quarterback, and now reclamation project for the Carolina Panthers. If he’s able to be rehabbed to some semblance of what he was coming out of USC—a talented, albeit flawed player—that would be a relief for this Baltimore team, and provide some clarity heading into the final year of his rookie deal in 2022. The silver lining overall, though, is that this offense truly is better than it performed in 2020 when healthy, and prior to Dobbins injury, I expected that to worm to turn this year. As a rookie, J.K. Dobbins took the lion’s share of carries in a true RBBC (Plus a quarterback that likes to pull it for himself quite often). He had a prime opportunity without Baltimore having to show fealty to a veteran in a clearly decrepit and done Mark Ingram, and was in line for even more opportunities to show out, and build on his solid first year. Now, Goose will have to rely on another exciting rookie RB that he added via the Rookie Draft, in Javonte Williams. While it would’ve been a tantalizing proposition to be starting two backs with the talents of Dobbins nd Williams on a weekly basis—even if both were to be committee backs—even having one isn’t the worst result, and could still push his points floor past many of his 2020 outputs. At wide receiver, John Brown (Who reportedly now may not even make the Raiders’ team) and Sterling Shepard return, though each were key to those inconsistencies on offense last season. Additionally, Devin Duvernay and Jalen Hurd are back, though Hurd has not taken an NFL snap across his first two years (And JUST was healthy enough to get pre-season run in the Niners’ third and final preliminary game), and Duvernay, though sublimely talented, may only be used as a return man, after real-life Baltimore set out to ruin as many rookie receivers’ careers as they could in the NFL Draft and free agency this year, burying names like Duvernay under multiple, capable bodies with medium-to-high draft capital. Goose also drafted Josh Palmer, who is considered prospect-y in a few corners of the draftnik community, but who also has some ascension to do against a talented depth chart before he gets any serious run. It’s unclear what to expect from this unit, but there is a lot of talent. At tight end, Dallas Goedert is back, and hopefully healthy for a full season, as his injury helped to doom Baltimore’s season as much as any non-Darnold offensive player. While Zach Ertz’s return to Philadelphia likely cannibalizes each of the two tight ends’ outlooks by a fair degree, with the state of the position in 2021, he’ll still be near the top if he simply repeats his per-game statistics. Additionally, Adam Trautman came on later in the year for New Orleans, posting several decent or better games as a rookie, and without Jared Cook to block his path anymore, may become the Saints’ primary tight end (Though Taysom Hill should have a lot to say about this now that he didn’t win the QB job). Overall, it’s a unit that should score well more than the measly 448 points that it stumbled to in 2020, a figure that was second-worst in the league. That said, the defense, which was middle of the road last year, is due for regression. Whilst Baltimore’s returning quartet of Malcolm Jenkins, Derek Barnett, Cameron Heyward, and Hasson Reddick should all be solid or better (And with the addition of Jadeveon Clowney, and K’Lavon Chaisson likely playing with his hand in the ground) it’s quite possible the Ravens sport the best DL in the league), linebacker in particular is bereft of top talent, with only Tyus Bowser, the unsigned B.J. Goodson, and rookie pick Azeez Ojulari, it’s clear that there is going to be a points vacuum in the middle of the defense at present. The composition itself (Assuming that I’m right on positionality, and including rookies)—7 DL, 3 LB, and 5 DBs is a little puzzling, but probably impacted by the fact that three of the players currently listed as LB, will likely be reclassified as DL before the season begins (Clowney, Reddick, and Chaisson). Probably the best thing to do would be to trade from that bevvy of DL talent to supplement the linebacking corps a touch (Or more). At the back, outside of Jenkins and perhaps Taron Johnson—who had a breakout campaign—unfortunately, it isn’t really clear where the points will come from. Goose has been able to rely on Tre Boston every year in the past, waiting until the last possible minute to sign with a team, and then outperforming expectations that were somehow low despite a near-half decade of that consistent track record. However, last year was his worst over that span, and he remains in street clothes (Which belies that strange yearly phenomenon, so perhaps he gets invited in out of the cold by some team looking for a playmaker on the ball). Ronnie Harrison contributed a year ago, but at nowhere near the rate he did the year before in Jacksonville. Now, he faces a difficult path to snaps, with the Browns inking the top-two DBs in free agency, adding to an existing crowded unit.
X-factor: Linebacker. The same as last year, linebacker continues to be the weak point for the Ravens, and as of yet, Goose’s investments haven’t paid off when addressing the position. If the offense improves, but the defense takes a step back, we’re looking for a team that will again struggle to match up against the top-half of the league on a weekly basis. If having a healthy Dobbins meant the Ravens would’ve fielded a dominant offense, I could almost write off the defense being so bad in the middle. I had Baltimore solidly in third place in the division until the Dobbins injury (And within shouting distance of a playoff berth), but have to bump them back to fourth now. Possessing two first rounders next year, it appears that Goose has a choice: He could use perhaps one of them, and trade from a position of strength (Like DL) for a top-linebacker (Or even just decent starters) to bring this unit up to snuff. Otherwise, he is likely content to take his lumps, and keep playing the long game. If it’s the latter choice, could be another painful campaign for Baltimore.
Projected division finish: 4th
Cincinnati Bengals (Chris)
Last year’s finish: 13th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Just as Garrett’s 2018 season was a harbinger of things to come—And also a testament to how much one player missing (Le’Veon Bell) can define a team’s season, Chris’ 2020 was potentially the cracks in the wall of the Hoover Dam. Granted, while he still managed to produce the second-highest scoring defensive season of all-time (And highest all-time before we made the switch from stuffs to TFL after Fantrax was scoring them inaccurately/missing many of them), the Bengals were still several hundred points off from their 2019 season, which saw Chris lead the league in points, and set the record for second-most points in a season (Bested of course by Cecil a year later, whose own 2018 mark will stand as the untouchable top-spot in perpetuity). While McCaffrey missed parts of 13 games with various soft tissue injuries in 2020, he was on pace to best even his own 2019 effort, which was the single-best fantasy season for a RB in history, averaging 30 PPG. If he is able to come anywhere near that, and re-form the 1-2 punch that Chris was able to get out of him and QB Baker Mayfield in 2018 (Though since then, he’s never gotten that terrific play from both at the same time), he’ll will be lifting that imaginary trophy (As the league has not been able to get a commitment for an actual trophy from a plurality of members yet) a few short months from now. Even if he does not though, Chris secured himself perhaps a more reliable backup plan, and second starting running back in Melvin Gordon. Though he is a bit aged in running back years (Offset slightly by his 2019 holdout), and now competing with Javonte Williams for a stranglehold on the Broncos’ backfield work, he should provide a solid 10 PPG or more floor, as he has every year of his career (Outside of his rookie campaign) to-date. Furthermore, it appears as Chris took that message of needing running backs to heart, trading a 2nd Round pick, as well as promising EDGE Uchenna Nwosu to Cleveland for presumed Texans’ starter Phillip Lindsay, and former DB-turned-LB David Long, who got some run a year ago as an injury fill-in for Jayon Brown—and there are many within the Titans organization who believe Long is the eventual successor to Brown’s spot (As his contract is up at the end of this year), though some prognosticators (Including this one) believe it will happen sooner than that. He also won a bid for Carlos Hyde right before the end of the pre-season, after a combination of his play, and the season-ending injury to Travis Etienne. Beyond those names, Cincinnati also has D’Ernest Johnson, who had a few blow up games a year ago, both before and after Nick Chubb went down, and would step into a significant role as an early down back if that happened again. Wide receiver, however, is the Bengals’ biggest problem area. After years of investment, it could certainly be argued that Chris neglected to keep adding at the position, and therefore finds himself in this spot today. Whereas the Cooper Kupp trade/acquisition (Which also netted him Blake Martinez and Julian Edelman) was a masterstroke, it is now approaching five years since that time, and the only significant names added since then were Dede Westrbook (Later in that draft, and then traded away), Stefon Diggs (Who was traded away only to re-acquire Westbrook—who was then released and re-acquired again this off-season), Emmanuel Sanders (Whom the Bengals traded away this off-season for the pick that ultimately acquired Lindsay), a few games of Alshon Jeffrey (In a trade that was nearly vetoed for being too strong, though it ended up being a runaway for NYJ), and current WRs Jakobi Meyers, and Tim Patrick. That’s why it was so important for Cincinnati to invest in a WR THIS YEAR, which is exactly what Chris did by trading up and getting his guy, in star-in-the making Terrace Marshall Jr., who graded out as the top-rookie wideout of the pre-season. The former #1 recruit prior to a serious leg injury that set him back and sapped his explosion for nearly two years, once led the cohort of Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and himself as LSU’s #1 wideout halfway through the 2019 season, when he was beset by a broken bone in his foot. Despite competing with them for targets, Marshall managed to have a penchant for scoring touchdowns at the best rate in FBS on a per-catch basis, finding paydirt a staggering 23 times over his final 19 games, including 10 in only 7 games before opting out a year ago with a literal clown show roulette under center for the Tigers. How fast he comes along in Carolina’s crowded passing game will be key to Cincinnati’s chances. At tight end, Mark Andrews reprises his role, but after a scary scene in training camp where he passed out, as well as missing time in 2020 with COVID, there are concerns about his health. Andrews, a diabetic, is more prone to other maladies, which is one of the reasons Chris grabbed Kyle Rudolph as a backup/bye week plugin for 2021. While he himself is fighting through some injuries, he has a long history of production, and given the lack of trust the Giants seem to have in Evan Engram, it’s possible they turn the page on him sometime this season, and defer to the reliable veteran. Defensively, it’s hard to find many faults on what threatens to be the best unit in the league for a third year running. The heart of the unit is as strong as ever, with Lavonte David being added to the triumvirate of Blake Martinez, Zach Cunningham, and Trey Edmunds, the league’s top-LB corps since they were paired together in 2018. While losing Budda Baker will hurt, Chris effectively traded him outright for David, so at worst it’s a wash. To replace Baker, alongside Kevin Byard, Cincy has taken several high-upside names at DB and rolled the dice. Three projected opening day starters at safety, including former first rounder Malik Hooker, now with the Cowboys, Rodney McLeod (Who will start as soon as he’s healthy after tearing his ACL late last year), and Erik Harris headline the group, though prior to yesterday’s announcement that Malcolm Butler was considering walking away from the game due to a personal issue, he may have been the best of the bunch. It’s a deep group of fantasy-relevant names—though Byard may be the only standout. Elsewhere, the Benglas return Emmanuel Ogbah, fresh off his best year, and solid contributors Lawrence Guy, and recent re-minted Minnesota Viking, Everson Griffen. Additionally, Chris has more depth options in Mychal Kendricks (Now finally free and clear from insider trading charges—though now on IR with the Niners), and Long. Those trades for/signings of these ancillary pieces should be enough to allow Chris’ defense to fulfill that mission of being the best on the side of the ball that wins championships (And yet…) once more, and perhaps for a final season given all the contract math issues that the Bengals run into next year.
X-factor: Health and WR. In terms of his starting lineup, Chris should be fine, as he boasts one of the top-three or four in the league in that department. But as last year so amply proved (When Cincinnati lost four regular season games), certain players aren’t replaceable. That is even more the case when the other areas, such as WR, are unable to more than hold up their end in case of injury. It’s incumbent for any team to stay healthy, but for the Bengals, losing a player like McCaffrey again could end up tumbling all of the dominoes, that precipitates a fall from the division champion and championship contender to a middle-of-the-road team. For at least one more season, however, Cincinnati is good enough to hold off a strong push from Garrett’s Steelers, and win a third-straight division crown.
Projected division finish: 1st
Cleveland Browns (Kevin)
Last year’s finish: 17th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Cleveland finished 6-6 last year, good enough for second in the division, and nearly landing a playoff berth. One of several teams to make my predictions look stupid (I had them fourth), the Browns rode the magical seasons of Kyler Murray, Mike Davis, T.J. Watt, and Neville Hewitt to elevate them above the sum of their parts. While three of those four return, the one outgoing player of the bunch (Mike Davis) is all but certain to start as the bell cow for the Atlanta Falcons, and the lack of other available options on this roster could be a harbinger of what lies ahead—as navigating a season without the likes of a starting running back is perilous at best—at least in the history of this league. Additionally, Hewitt, who was thrust into action for the Jets due to injuries in consecutive years, has no clear role in Houston’s who’s who of linebackers auditioning for a part-time role next to the only one guaranteed a spot (Zach Cunningham). That means a lot of heavy lifting is going to fall on the very capable shoulders of Murray and Watt. Murray, who has very much rewarded Kevin’s use of the first overall pick from the 2019 Rookie Draft, has become one of the top-few fantasy QBs in the league, due to his running ability and friendly offensive system. With weapons galore, I don’t expect that to change at all in 2021. Watt, likewise, should be a force once again, a year after finishing second in the NFL in sacks (With 15), half a sack behind Aaron Donald’s (15.5) league-leading total. Beyond those two, however, there are no longer any sensational names, after the jettisoning of Davis and Joey Bosa in off-season trades. What is still there is a solid core of buy-low players, many of whom with time still left on their clocks, and something to prove. You can say that applies for all of the Browns’ projected non-Murray starters, in Devontae Booker (Who may get a large portion of the touches for the Giants in the early going, as they bring Saquon Barkley back slowly), Hunter Renfrow (The undrafted FA who despite carving out a role and a rapport with Raiders’ QB Derek Carr, always seems to be the forgotten man for prognosticators—including this one—every time Las Vegas gets a shiny new toy), Sammy Watkins (Once again out to prove he’s still an Alpha, after he was once the top-WR of perhaps the top draft class for many at the time), Austin Hooper (After a bit of a dud of a first season in Cleveland statistically), and Albert Wilson (The king of running backwards after the catch did just that to his career, when he took the year off in 2020 due to COVID concerns, and now finds himself buried on a stacked Miami WR depth chart). The problem is, after the dealing of Davis, and later Phillip Lindsay, in addition to a starting running back, Cleveland doesn’t have much depth to speak of on this side of the ball. Yes, Murray’s production should cover some of that up, but how much? Coming from the guy who once had Peyton Manning and no other real-life NFL offensive starter in his first year at the helm of his current franchise, I can say confidently that despite her penchant for attempting to do so, it’s not something you can just Joanna Gaines away by covering it in shiplap. On the defensive side of the ball, while Bosa is gone, I really like what Kevin did to ‘Moneyball’ this unit (Okay, well, Moneyball outside of his taking linebacker Zaven Collins with a First Round draft pick) with high-upside players, like Grant Delpit, Uchenna Nwosu, Michael Davis, and Troy Hill. While some of those players might not hit, Delpit was considered the cream of the crop of safeties in the 2020 NFL Draft before a serious leg injury led him to fall to Cleveland, and though I believe they’ll bring him along slow, I envision a player who may be a fantasy monster by year’s end. Likewise, Davis and Hill were among the highest-scoring corners in the league last year, and while he may not be Bosa (Though he’ll likely play opposite him, and benefit from his presence), Nwosu is a dangerous EDGE rusher in his own right, whose arrow is pointing up with the more opportunities he’s continued to receive/earn with LAC. Furthermore, Kyle Van Noy, and Dalvin Tomlinson are solid or better pieces, who should be expected to at least hold their own at their respective positions in most matchups. While others, like Takk McKinley, Hewitt, and Kyler Fackrell may have lost their roles in free agency, and as Jaire Alexander’s point production continues to point downward the better he becomes, each of the first three are an injury away from a significant role. Collins should start early on (If not right away, though the Jordan Hicks saga has yet to be resolved), and the combo of he and Watt—though volatile for the fact that neither are likely going to be as consistent tacklers as ILBs (Watt, because he rushes on most plays, and Collins because he’s a jack of all trades), they form a solid linchpin in the center of this defense. Once Delpit is up to speed, I could see this being a top-10-to-12 unit in the league.
X-factor: Running back/depth. It all comes back to running back for Kevin, as he likely will go as this unit does. While the lack of quality depth at other offensive positions is also a concern, I think the lack of a starter at RB is the difference between Kevin being a fringe playoff team, and one of the bottom 10-12 teams in the league. Much like Don Quixote, he had better mount his steed, deputize Sancho, and ride off in search of his beautiful Dulcinea (In this case, a starting running back).
Projected division finish: 3rd
Pittsburgh Steelers (Garrett)
Last year’s finish: 23rd (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: For a second-consecutive year, 2020 was a downer for Garrett’s Steelers, once again finishing with a losing record (4-8), and being beaten soundly (Outscored by nearly a 30 PPG margin) with regularity. It was then quite obviously a mistake to pick him second in the division a year ago, and to expect such a quick return to form. Now, here’s where I tell you that I won’t be wrong in making that same pick again, just one year later, and in fact, make the bold prediction that the Steelers will be a top-10 team in 2021 (Note: This part was written with Drew Lock as his quarterback, BEFORE Garrett went out and acquired Tom Brady recently), and it all starts with what he has done this off-season. While it was certainly a failed experiment to rebuild on the fly—As Garrett had papered over many of the glaring holes on his roster, despite a lot of talent, over the last few seasons—he managed to split the difference, so to speak, and load himself up with future draft picks. Garrett hung on to those en masse, and even made a move up the board to pick perhaps this year’s draft gem in Najee Harris, who should see immediate bellcow status in the real life Steelers’ backfield. Hoarding those picks also paid off later in the draft, as he landed Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Who may be a better real life player than a fantasy one, a la Isaiah Simmons, but who should play a lot in Cleveland’s underwhelming horde of bodies at LB), Amon-Ra St. Brown (Who might have the most nondescript tape of a WR that I’ve ever seen—just as above, is ticketed for a large role, given how impossibly bad his team’s WR corps is), and later steal Trevon Moehrig (Widely considered the top defensive back for IDP purposes in this draft). In addition to his recent trade for Brady, he also traded for Zack Moss, and picked up Anthony Firkser and Kareem Jackson in the UFA Draft, three solid if unspectacular options that should fortify his starting lineup with players who are at a minimum, unlikely to be black holes. Those additions, alongside an existing strong contingent of skill position players on offense—Including TY Hilton, Juju Smith-Schuster, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Higbee—serve to shoot Pittsburgh right back up the charts towards the top of the leaderboard, a la Happy Gilmore at the Masters. That strong infrastructure may be what allows him to not do a complete rebuild (Hard to square for a team that had a bazillion picks in this year’s draft), but also avoid being down for more than 2-3 seasons (People forget that Garrett’s 2018 squad, while going 11-1, winning the division championship, and the #2 seed in the AFC, was more like an 8-4, or even 7-5 squad statistically). Defensively, while Pittsburgh stalwart Brandon Graham returns for what seems like his one-millionth season on this roster, it by-and-large is a youth movement, ready to break out. Both Malik Harrison and Jermaine Carter have been given starting nods, and look to significantly outperform their Fantrax point projections (And who doesn’t? Still, read the ordinate word: significantly). Pittsburgh also employs the services of Falcons’ second-year LB Mykal Walker, who was a good run defender in 2020, but was among the worst third down players in the NFL a year ago. While he looks to iron that end of his game out, he could feature less on third down, with newly minted Atlanta Defensive Coordinator Dean Pees (I mean, weird flex, but okay) intimating that he wants to use more variable formations, including subbing off LBs in favor of pass rushers and defensive backs to improve his team’s league-worst pass defense. Also returning are young ball-playing DBs Nasir Adderly and J.C. Jackson, who each broke out to a degree a year ago—Especially Adderly, who after a rash of injuries at safety for the Chargers in 2019, still was banished to sit the pine in relative obscurity—and will form a solid quartet alongside the aforementioned other Jackson and Moehrig. Garrett also came away from the draft with high-upside bets Chazz Surratt, Tutu Atwell, Derrick Barnes, and Tommy Tremble, though it’s difficult to say what type of 2021 contributions any of them will make.
X-factor: Bets paying off. All in all, there is enough here to, paraphrasing Outkast’s Elevators, move Pittsburgh up in the world. Yes, the defense is young and unproven, and questions remain about the viability of some of the older hands on offense, but there are few teams who have the number of quality options that Garrett does. He can and certainly will improve his depth as the season moves on. And if in the unlikely event that I’m wrong about his outlook again, he could flip a number of serviceable players at the deadline to make himself even stronger in the long-term. But this team is going to contend sooner than most expect.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Thank you for reading this, the third in the series of Divisional Previews. I will publish the fourth installment later this week, this time the NFC North.