Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Aug 12, 2021 18:53:03 GMT -5
AFC SOUTH
Today’s division du jour (See, I know some French words, even if I don’t parlez-vous) is the AFC South—a division which has produced a two-time AFC Champion, despite not winning this division in either of those years (Do you know who that is? Hint: It’s not Jordan. Ask him to tell you about it sometime), a consistent top-performer, who’s always among the league’s elite, and a division hierarchy that shifts about as often as bills make it through congress—Up until now, at least. But there are tidal waves being generated, nearly ready to crest, that may envelop this division, and pull it’s lead dog—At least for the past half-decade—under in its wake. This division has it all: From a battle-tested, weary with age, legitimate Super Bowl contender, trying to stay afloat in the big pool, and three rebuilding projects, all at various stages of disrepair (Or repair)—including the one in progress for a near-decade that, just last year, this prognosticator was duped into believing was their year—the year that ended the league’s lone remaining playoff drought. In summarizing this division, I will paraphrase the David Zucker classic, The Naked Gun, “And all the questions kept coming up over, and over again like bubbles in a case of club soda. Who is the character trying to kill the division’s top team—and for whom? Did the Colts’ roster lie to me last year? I didn’t entirely trust them, but I didn’t have any proof either. Why was adding Cam the only major move J.R. made? And if it was, did he know about it? And if he didn’t, then who did? And where the hell was I?” Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Houston Texans (Ryan)
Last year’s finish: 26th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: In 2020, the Texans’ long-awaited rebuild finally made its debut, ending a streak of three-consecutive AFC Championship Games, and two-straight Super Bowl appearances. While an outsider might look upon those results and decry that Comer must have had one of the all-time great teams, I think Ryan himself would tell you that he was at least a step below that. What propelled the Texans’ to those consecutive playoff successes is something that is a well-known truism in all of sports: The measure of a good team isn’t necessarily how good they were during the regular season/their record, but rather, it’s a matter of getting hot at the right time—something that Houston absolutely managed to do multiple times…in a row. Therein lies the impressive nature of his playoff runs, as he was able to an above average-to-good team in each of those years, often openly floating the notion that he wanted to tear down or rebuild, but instead caught fire in the playoffs (Wait, I’m just now realizing this may have been a ruse. Oh well, I’m already down this road too far, so here goes…)—and with a little luck, and savvy free agent moves, he managed to put together one of the all-time runs in league history, even without being one of the all-time teams. Therefore, I think it was an astute observation by him that his team was punching above its weight. Looking forward to 2021 and beyond, it’s worth examining how he got to this point, including not just the additions he made that instigated the teardown, but also those who were in place long before. One of those players who fits the latter category is the aforementioned player who carried Comer into his second Super Bowl: Breshad Perriman. Returning from a year in which he missed a fair amount of time, and was a general disappointment, there is also some reason to believe that he is due some positive regression, as Perriman is still in his theoretical prime years, has apparently shed one of the worst cases of the ‘dropsies’ in modern sports history, and, frankly, is by far the most-talented receiver on a feckless Lions’ offense, whose only recourse may actually be to gouge and bite opponents, as their new head coach intimated in his hiring presser. His addition—and Ryan’s willingness to extend him for several years—not only won Comer that all important AFCCG, but also provided him with a quality player for when he’s been on the field since that time, and one who could return a solid asset in a trade, provided he’s not in Houston’s long-term plans. That addition is far from the only thing he’s proven me wrong about (Not including ranking him so low in these yearly divisional previews, because I was told he was going to rebuil…oh hell, he’s at it again). Comer managed to have the foresight to do another thing that I didn’t think would work: Get a first round pick/top value out of DeAndre Hopkins (Who only had one year left on his contract by the time he was dealt, if memory serves). Ryan turned that pick into Jerry Jeudy, who, while DeAndre Hopkins he is not—yet—put forth a very solid rookie campaign, and is a very highly-regarded long-term add, who can be a WR1 for this team, at least in theory. Additionally, Comer added Denzel Mims, who also enjoyed a fairly productive rookie debut, to his receiver room with another first rounder. However, fast forward one calendar year, and, whether a motivational tactic, or simply a reflection of his inability to keep both of his hands off defensive backs’ shoulders/with full arm extension/pushing them to create separation, Captain OPI—er, I mean Mims, rather, is currently running with the Jets’ third team, and is a speculative trade candidate. While that development might be an overall positive for his opportunities to see time on the field—as it seems he’s been eclipsed by several of his teammates, including 2021 rookie Elijah Moore—it’s never a good sign for a player to wash out with the franchise that brought him there (Even if it’s a new regime) after only one year. Further investment in that position group came with this draft in the form of legitimate track star speedster Anthony Schwartz—though right now he’s simply projectable, as he’s buried on Cleveland’s depth chart. Zay Jones is also a depth piece for Houston, though; he’s mostly again fizzled out since his lone above-average season in 2018 in Buffalo. These players represent the most-exciting position group on the Texans, ergo why I started with them. Most exciting they may be, but most talented remains with Nick Chubb. Comer has been extremely cagey when approached about trading him, despite his rebuild. Clearly he thinks Chubb has enough years left of dominant production, or thinks his rebuild will have reached its conclusion quickly enough to once again take advantage of the talents of maybe the best pure runner in football. Along with that core comes a name that dynasty and real life prognosticators alike drool over: Trey Lance. The dual-threat QB tore up FCS opponents en route to one of the most impressive statlines in the history of the sport—but questions about his competition, and readiness—given his short stint as a starter—remain. For their part, it was enough to convince the 49ers to move up for him in the draft, and Comer was willing to take that first round plunge in our draft as well, setting him up with at least a future starter on a team with an already penciled in Ben Roethlisberger, who becomes instantly fungible as soon as Lance pips Jimmy G and assumes the starting role. At tight end, Jimmy Graham returns to the Texans for the eighteen-billionth year (Which is weird since the league has only been around since 2009). No longer the threat he once was, at least he still scores touchdowns at a prodigious rate. Ryan clearly prioritized drafting his heir apparent last year, with three rookie TEs, though none have quite made their mark as of yet. On the defensive side of the ball, the Texans are still feeling the ripple effects of Telvin Smith walking away, and Comer’s refusal (Or at least reluctance) to invest heavily on that side of the ball—until recently at least. Last year, he added Yetur Gross-Matos to join Jonathan Allen and Dexter Lawrence at DL, and this year he’s brought on Denzel Perryman in an underrated UFA Draft pickup, and splurged a rookie first rounder on Micah Parsons, perhaps the most athletically talented LB in history. There are some character concerns, after was apparently a ringleader of bullying—well—ring at Penn State, as well as some questions about how the Cowboys will play all of these linebackers—at least enough to make them fantasy performers, but overall, long-term, he should be like a defibrillator for this defense.
X-factor: Time. Clearly Houston is ahead of the curve with regards to his rebuild time, as he will be a competitive side already this year—just not consistently a winner, likely—though his offense could allow him to sneak into the playoffs. With continued development out of his young corps, and if he continues to make quality, and often under-the-radar additions to his roster—particularly his defense, we will see a team truly deserving of the mantle Comer almost reached with a lesser squad—and a homegrown one to boot.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Indianapolis Colts (J.R.)
Last year’s finish: 32nd (Division: 4th)
Outlook: The biggest story of the 2020 off-season was the car crashing into a nuclear warhead, which then plows into a fireworks warehouse (Also The Naked Gun— “Nothing to see here”) of a move by J.R. to acquire Cam Newton. It served notice that the Colts were finally ready to throw their hat into the ring, and compete. In hindsight, it now looks like the Hindenburg of all moves, as Cam, still clearly not healthy, years removed from a throwing arm injury, turned into a shell of himself down the stretch once more, looking like a high school passer running the triple option based on his touchdown to interception ration. The sin for J.R. was less about his move for Newton—who did enjoy some fantasy-positive games—but rather the failure to follow that move with any successive meaningful ones to supplement it. Injuries no doubt played their part, as losing Joe Mixon, or any starting running back in a league this size can have devastating consequences. As a result, despite enjoying the campaign of Rookie of the Year candidate (And likely the best rookie receiving season in history), J.R. was far removed from any measure of competition. Those ailments, in particular, resulted in that pick conveying as the top-overall selection in the Rookie Draft. To add insult to injury—and mostly due to Newton’s injury and as a result, performance—the Patriots added Mac Jones, necessitating J.R. to go out and add the former Alabama signal caller, who drew internet criticism because he has titties, but also put together one of the most statistically dominant seasons in college football history, meaning that he likely possesses the presumptive starter going forward. The Colts also used their later picks in the draft to nab two under-the-radar wide receiving options, who despite their draft slot pedigree, may get some earlier run than you would otherwise expect, in Nico Collins and Dez Fitzpatrick. With that in mind, and with some likely positive regression, this is perhaps the best offense on paper that Indy has ever sported. Even with a black hole at tight end (A position which, especially for the salary, J.R. may legitimately hold the dubious distinction for the worst position group—relative to cost at least—in the league), the offense is league average at worst, with a fair amount of upside possible if health cooperates. Defensively, however, J.R. once again sports one of the lower tier units in the CDFL. While there are some positive notes, like DeForest Buckner, and Kenny Moore, so many names on this defense are simply adequate, or worse. Without a serious infusion of talent, it’s a bottom-10 group that will hold the Colts back in their chance for redemption this year, even if the offense encourages a second crack at contention post-Newton trade.
X-factor: Defense and Tight End. Two main areas plague the Colts at present, and J.R. doesn’t seem to be in a rush to fix either of them (Though not for lack of trying at TE with the number of young candidates brought in at the position). Ultimately, with a competent defense and a living body at TE, this team would really have the appearance of one that could surprise in the playoffs. As of now, it begs for further investment on the defensive side just to keep from going under.
Projected division finish: 4th
Jacksonville Jaguars (Jordan)
Last year’s finish: 3rd (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Once again the dominant force in the South, the Jaguars are poised once again for success in 2021, thanks to one of the best managers in finding value in the entire league: Jordan. Few realize that Jordan has only once drafted at the top of the Rookie Draft—a blunder that was not of his own making—in Derrius Guice. In his time running the franchise (Now in his sixth year), his imprint on the roster is absolute. Only one of the players predate his arrival, nearly every single one plays an important role on his team, and, for the vast majority of them at least, Jordan found value—often acquiring players for less—where others may have missed it. That obviously doesn’t apply to quarterback, where Russ is as solid as ever of a fantasy bet—though Seattle really must think he’s going to burn down the kitchen every time he cooks, much like the fire alarm in my college dormitory. Whether he’s the Russ from the first half of last year, or the latter half, matters, both from a real life and fantasy perspective, as the former had him on a unanimous MVP trajectory, and the latter, just a good QB. An impressive receiving corps remains as well, including the two Tylers—Lockett, and Boyd (Jordan’s first Rookie Draft pick back in 2016), as well as 2020 rookie sensation Brandon Aiyuk, who somehow snuck under the radar to allow Jordan to hit a homer with his selection late in the first round of last year’s Rookie Draft. He added to that group with the dynamic Dyami Brown around the same spot this year, so he should be well positioned for a solid performance there once again, as it’s in the upper echelon of receiving corps league-wide. He also found deals in both Logan Thomas, and Dan Arnold last year—though Thomas, a converted college quarterback (And high school wideout/projected college TE) was obviously the prize. Now to Jordan’s lone concern from a year ago: running back. He was right to worry about his downfall due to that position, even if it didn’t necessarily materialize to the level in which his fears were espoused. While he still sports David Johnson—the lone existing player when he took over—Johnson has faded considerably from the figure he was in quick order. No longer a dynamic playmaker, as he was in Jordan’s own rookie campaign, Johnson has settled in to the bottom tier of starting running backs around the league, even with a quasi-revitalization in Houston last year. I can’t say I expect the same from this year, given that the Texans project to be the worst team in the NFL by a mile. If he becomes a stat accumulator as he did in a similarly moribund 2018 Cardinals offense, perhaps that benefits Jordan. Likewise, James Conner’s star has fallen, after he seamlessly replaced Le’Veon Bell in his sophomore year in 2018. Since then, injuries and ineffectiveness have plagued the cancer survivor, but a new environment—one with at least a competent offensive mind—in the desert may lift him up the ranks once again. While it’s understood that he’ll in no way have the vice grip on reps in Arizona, with continual pest Chase Edmonds always vying for and seemingly getting a large share of snaps, that could actually work to his advantage, as Pittsburgh never had a quality back that they could afford to spell him with when he was off the field. But those two names, decent as the may be, could actually wind up being Jordan’s third and fourth choice runners this year. That’s because he has addressed the position, both with a phenomenal trade that landed him presumed Falcons’ starter Mike Davis, and picking San Francisco’s nineteen-billionth running back (See what I did there?) in Trey Sermon with his first pick in this year’s Rookie Draft. Who knows what Kyle Shanahan plans to do with his yearly shiny new toy, but I think we can bet on it confusing and enraging the fantasy community, just like his dad, several times this year at least. Overall, Jacksonville’s offense is one of the top-10 in the league, and potentially top-5. Now on to my 2020 concern for Jordan: Defense. Once again, Jordan jettisoned his rookie draft picks on this side of the ball (And for good value), after they failed to produce as soon as he needed them, but brought in solid fantasy contributors all-around, and once again, supplemented them with a bevvy of rookie picks. John Bostic, and 2020 breakout Foyesade Olokun return at linebacker, flanked by known IDP quantity Jayon Brown, who is coming off his worst counting stats season since his rookie year due to injury. The influx of talent beyond those three include another first round pick in Pete Werner, whose instinctive play makes it seem like he has eyes all over his helmet…Buckeyes (Ka chow! You hate me, right?). Jordan also took a lark on Barron Browning, another Ohio State linebacker, whose physicality at the position is unmatched in this class by anyone not named Micah Parsons. The only problem is, per his tape, he seems to have equipped that aspect of his game (As well as the ‘try’ portion) with an off switch that he perpetually leaves in that position. If Denver can find a way to turn that on, he’s going to be a literal monster. If not, he’s going to be on a lot of offensive players’ highlight tape, getting stiff-armed by quarterbacks, and walking around the field as ballcarriers just yards away run free. At defensive back, Jacksonville also sports one of the best units, returning top-pass defending NFL DB, and newly-minted Cleveland Brown John Johnson with cerebral, and solid as they come Chuck Clark, and 2020 top-rookie performer Kamren Curl. Though Curl will likely be relegated to more of a third safety role in Washington, he’s proven he deserves to be on the field with his play. Further addition, Richie Grant, will likely patrol the back of Atlanta’s secondary for years to come, though it’s an open question if he will win the job by Week 1. On the defensive line, Maxx Crosby and Leonard Williams are the only two players, which likely requires some form of reinforcement to account for byes/injuries, though not an indictment of them as players. They’re each solid or better.
X-factor: Health. For the first time in four years, I’ve dropped the defense portion of the “Defense and Health” X-factor for Jordan. He’s made significant investments on both sides of the ball now, and this time did so at a higher level on the defensive end than years past. I think that will be a key difference for that unit, and will serve him well enough to say that, as far as an X-factor goes, health is the only concern (Outside of a niggling question about DL depth). Health provided, this team will be successful. The bigger question is, with so many 1-year players on his roster, much like other contending teams five or six years in (Or frankly, much earlier) the Jaguars are now facing a bit of a win or bust scenario. Yes, I still project Jacksonville to be some level of good in 2022, but it is almost time to ponder if those yearly reinvestments—significant though they may be—can carry a team that may lose its traditional core over the next two seasons. For now though, those questions can be tabled, as Jacksonville is clearly the class of the division once more—though, with a number of ascending teams in this division, I won’t commit to that being the case one year from now.
Projected division finish: 1st
Tennessee Titans (Erik)
Last year’s finish: 18th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Entering 2020, in his nine previous seasons in our league (I don’t know if he was an original 2009 member or not, as I don’t have access to those files), Erik had produced one .500 or better record (His 2015 Houston Texans went 9-3, and dominated the AFC in the regular season, but fell apart in the playoffs due to injuries and depth). But that’s it. One year of contention in at least nine seasons. I don’t say this to disparage Erik, but rather to point out how important his commitment to process and building it the right way. Case and point: Last year, his team sprang to life at least a year sooner than probably anyone expected, finishing 6-6, and 2-1 in division (Though I did say last year that, his starting lineup “has the look of a fringe-playoff team”). Though he just missed the playoffs due to a tiebreaker in the more competitive AFC, Erik, though his performance last season, and his willingness to take good draft deals, move back (And even patiently wait for a year) and accrue value is a warning shot across the bow of every team in this division, and perhaps the entire AFC. Already to his name is the young core of Daniel Jones, D’Andre Swift, Terry McLaurin, Mecole Hardman, Rashod Bateman, Kadarius Toney, Pat Freiermuth, and Albert O, and Hunter Long on offense, as none of them are over 25, or beyond their rookie contracts. Many a playoff team would be envious of that group. Defensively, it’s a horse of a different color, with still a lot of talent on that side of the ball, but also, an aged and veteran group, many of whom are only holding on by a thread. Danny Trevathan, in particular, has nearly played his way out of the league, but due to his contract, Chicago has been unwilling or unable to replace him so far. Added to that is the duo of the not quite ageless, but still effective Harrison Smith and K.J. Wright. Smith still anchors the Minnesota secondary, but as of yet, Wright is without a team. Further over-30 player Jason Pierre-Paul (Whose fantasy outlook always depends to some degree on which position he’s listed at), and Daniel Sorensen round out the veteran contingent. There are an appropriate amount of youngsters on the team—namely, Jarrad Davis, Krys Barnes, Blake Cashman, and Hamsah Nasirildeen. The question among those names is who will have a surefire fantasy role, especially as Green Bay brought in De’Vondre Campbell as a free agent, presumably relegating Barnes to a two-down role, as he was one of the worst third down linebackers in football last year as a surprise UDFA contributor. Overall, it speaks to a team in progress, but that hasn’t quite reached its zenith.
X-factor: Defense. I once again anticipate Erik beating his previous record from 2020, perhaps even nabbing one of those last playoff spots in the AFC. But it’s clear that most future investment, especially in terms of those draft picks, must navigate to the defensive side of the ball. While veteran stop gaps may get him there this year (Or may become attractive trade pieces at the deadline), it’s not a sustainable long-term plan—at least not this specific grouping of players, most of them well past their prime. The future of this franchise is bright, and the time of taking the Titans for granted as an easy win has passed.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Remember to watch out for the third of our divisional previews, as we stay in conference, but shift north, to check in on the AFC North. Look for it later this weekend. Thanks again guys.
Today’s division du jour (See, I know some French words, even if I don’t parlez-vous) is the AFC South—a division which has produced a two-time AFC Champion, despite not winning this division in either of those years (Do you know who that is? Hint: It’s not Jordan. Ask him to tell you about it sometime), a consistent top-performer, who’s always among the league’s elite, and a division hierarchy that shifts about as often as bills make it through congress—Up until now, at least. But there are tidal waves being generated, nearly ready to crest, that may envelop this division, and pull it’s lead dog—At least for the past half-decade—under in its wake. This division has it all: From a battle-tested, weary with age, legitimate Super Bowl contender, trying to stay afloat in the big pool, and three rebuilding projects, all at various stages of disrepair (Or repair)—including the one in progress for a near-decade that, just last year, this prognosticator was duped into believing was their year—the year that ended the league’s lone remaining playoff drought. In summarizing this division, I will paraphrase the David Zucker classic, The Naked Gun, “And all the questions kept coming up over, and over again like bubbles in a case of club soda. Who is the character trying to kill the division’s top team—and for whom? Did the Colts’ roster lie to me last year? I didn’t entirely trust them, but I didn’t have any proof either. Why was adding Cam the only major move J.R. made? And if it was, did he know about it? And if he didn’t, then who did? And where the hell was I?” Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Houston Texans (Ryan)
Last year’s finish: 26th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: In 2020, the Texans’ long-awaited rebuild finally made its debut, ending a streak of three-consecutive AFC Championship Games, and two-straight Super Bowl appearances. While an outsider might look upon those results and decry that Comer must have had one of the all-time great teams, I think Ryan himself would tell you that he was at least a step below that. What propelled the Texans’ to those consecutive playoff successes is something that is a well-known truism in all of sports: The measure of a good team isn’t necessarily how good they were during the regular season/their record, but rather, it’s a matter of getting hot at the right time—something that Houston absolutely managed to do multiple times…in a row. Therein lies the impressive nature of his playoff runs, as he was able to an above average-to-good team in each of those years, often openly floating the notion that he wanted to tear down or rebuild, but instead caught fire in the playoffs (Wait, I’m just now realizing this may have been a ruse. Oh well, I’m already down this road too far, so here goes…)—and with a little luck, and savvy free agent moves, he managed to put together one of the all-time runs in league history, even without being one of the all-time teams. Therefore, I think it was an astute observation by him that his team was punching above its weight. Looking forward to 2021 and beyond, it’s worth examining how he got to this point, including not just the additions he made that instigated the teardown, but also those who were in place long before. One of those players who fits the latter category is the aforementioned player who carried Comer into his second Super Bowl: Breshad Perriman. Returning from a year in which he missed a fair amount of time, and was a general disappointment, there is also some reason to believe that he is due some positive regression, as Perriman is still in his theoretical prime years, has apparently shed one of the worst cases of the ‘dropsies’ in modern sports history, and, frankly, is by far the most-talented receiver on a feckless Lions’ offense, whose only recourse may actually be to gouge and bite opponents, as their new head coach intimated in his hiring presser. His addition—and Ryan’s willingness to extend him for several years—not only won Comer that all important AFCCG, but also provided him with a quality player for when he’s been on the field since that time, and one who could return a solid asset in a trade, provided he’s not in Houston’s long-term plans. That addition is far from the only thing he’s proven me wrong about (Not including ranking him so low in these yearly divisional previews, because I was told he was going to rebuil…oh hell, he’s at it again). Comer managed to have the foresight to do another thing that I didn’t think would work: Get a first round pick/top value out of DeAndre Hopkins (Who only had one year left on his contract by the time he was dealt, if memory serves). Ryan turned that pick into Jerry Jeudy, who, while DeAndre Hopkins he is not—yet—put forth a very solid rookie campaign, and is a very highly-regarded long-term add, who can be a WR1 for this team, at least in theory. Additionally, Comer added Denzel Mims, who also enjoyed a fairly productive rookie debut, to his receiver room with another first rounder. However, fast forward one calendar year, and, whether a motivational tactic, or simply a reflection of his inability to keep both of his hands off defensive backs’ shoulders/with full arm extension/pushing them to create separation, Captain OPI—er, I mean Mims, rather, is currently running with the Jets’ third team, and is a speculative trade candidate. While that development might be an overall positive for his opportunities to see time on the field—as it seems he’s been eclipsed by several of his teammates, including 2021 rookie Elijah Moore—it’s never a good sign for a player to wash out with the franchise that brought him there (Even if it’s a new regime) after only one year. Further investment in that position group came with this draft in the form of legitimate track star speedster Anthony Schwartz—though right now he’s simply projectable, as he’s buried on Cleveland’s depth chart. Zay Jones is also a depth piece for Houston, though; he’s mostly again fizzled out since his lone above-average season in 2018 in Buffalo. These players represent the most-exciting position group on the Texans, ergo why I started with them. Most exciting they may be, but most talented remains with Nick Chubb. Comer has been extremely cagey when approached about trading him, despite his rebuild. Clearly he thinks Chubb has enough years left of dominant production, or thinks his rebuild will have reached its conclusion quickly enough to once again take advantage of the talents of maybe the best pure runner in football. Along with that core comes a name that dynasty and real life prognosticators alike drool over: Trey Lance. The dual-threat QB tore up FCS opponents en route to one of the most impressive statlines in the history of the sport—but questions about his competition, and readiness—given his short stint as a starter—remain. For their part, it was enough to convince the 49ers to move up for him in the draft, and Comer was willing to take that first round plunge in our draft as well, setting him up with at least a future starter on a team with an already penciled in Ben Roethlisberger, who becomes instantly fungible as soon as Lance pips Jimmy G and assumes the starting role. At tight end, Jimmy Graham returns to the Texans for the eighteen-billionth year (Which is weird since the league has only been around since 2009). No longer the threat he once was, at least he still scores touchdowns at a prodigious rate. Ryan clearly prioritized drafting his heir apparent last year, with three rookie TEs, though none have quite made their mark as of yet. On the defensive side of the ball, the Texans are still feeling the ripple effects of Telvin Smith walking away, and Comer’s refusal (Or at least reluctance) to invest heavily on that side of the ball—until recently at least. Last year, he added Yetur Gross-Matos to join Jonathan Allen and Dexter Lawrence at DL, and this year he’s brought on Denzel Perryman in an underrated UFA Draft pickup, and splurged a rookie first rounder on Micah Parsons, perhaps the most athletically talented LB in history. There are some character concerns, after was apparently a ringleader of bullying—well—ring at Penn State, as well as some questions about how the Cowboys will play all of these linebackers—at least enough to make them fantasy performers, but overall, long-term, he should be like a defibrillator for this defense.
X-factor: Time. Clearly Houston is ahead of the curve with regards to his rebuild time, as he will be a competitive side already this year—just not consistently a winner, likely—though his offense could allow him to sneak into the playoffs. With continued development out of his young corps, and if he continues to make quality, and often under-the-radar additions to his roster—particularly his defense, we will see a team truly deserving of the mantle Comer almost reached with a lesser squad—and a homegrown one to boot.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Indianapolis Colts (J.R.)
Last year’s finish: 32nd (Division: 4th)
Outlook: The biggest story of the 2020 off-season was the car crashing into a nuclear warhead, which then plows into a fireworks warehouse (Also The Naked Gun— “Nothing to see here”) of a move by J.R. to acquire Cam Newton. It served notice that the Colts were finally ready to throw their hat into the ring, and compete. In hindsight, it now looks like the Hindenburg of all moves, as Cam, still clearly not healthy, years removed from a throwing arm injury, turned into a shell of himself down the stretch once more, looking like a high school passer running the triple option based on his touchdown to interception ration. The sin for J.R. was less about his move for Newton—who did enjoy some fantasy-positive games—but rather the failure to follow that move with any successive meaningful ones to supplement it. Injuries no doubt played their part, as losing Joe Mixon, or any starting running back in a league this size can have devastating consequences. As a result, despite enjoying the campaign of Rookie of the Year candidate (And likely the best rookie receiving season in history), J.R. was far removed from any measure of competition. Those ailments, in particular, resulted in that pick conveying as the top-overall selection in the Rookie Draft. To add insult to injury—and mostly due to Newton’s injury and as a result, performance—the Patriots added Mac Jones, necessitating J.R. to go out and add the former Alabama signal caller, who drew internet criticism because he has titties, but also put together one of the most statistically dominant seasons in college football history, meaning that he likely possesses the presumptive starter going forward. The Colts also used their later picks in the draft to nab two under-the-radar wide receiving options, who despite their draft slot pedigree, may get some earlier run than you would otherwise expect, in Nico Collins and Dez Fitzpatrick. With that in mind, and with some likely positive regression, this is perhaps the best offense on paper that Indy has ever sported. Even with a black hole at tight end (A position which, especially for the salary, J.R. may legitimately hold the dubious distinction for the worst position group—relative to cost at least—in the league), the offense is league average at worst, with a fair amount of upside possible if health cooperates. Defensively, however, J.R. once again sports one of the lower tier units in the CDFL. While there are some positive notes, like DeForest Buckner, and Kenny Moore, so many names on this defense are simply adequate, or worse. Without a serious infusion of talent, it’s a bottom-10 group that will hold the Colts back in their chance for redemption this year, even if the offense encourages a second crack at contention post-Newton trade.
X-factor: Defense and Tight End. Two main areas plague the Colts at present, and J.R. doesn’t seem to be in a rush to fix either of them (Though not for lack of trying at TE with the number of young candidates brought in at the position). Ultimately, with a competent defense and a living body at TE, this team would really have the appearance of one that could surprise in the playoffs. As of now, it begs for further investment on the defensive side just to keep from going under.
Projected division finish: 4th
Jacksonville Jaguars (Jordan)
Last year’s finish: 3rd (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Once again the dominant force in the South, the Jaguars are poised once again for success in 2021, thanks to one of the best managers in finding value in the entire league: Jordan. Few realize that Jordan has only once drafted at the top of the Rookie Draft—a blunder that was not of his own making—in Derrius Guice. In his time running the franchise (Now in his sixth year), his imprint on the roster is absolute. Only one of the players predate his arrival, nearly every single one plays an important role on his team, and, for the vast majority of them at least, Jordan found value—often acquiring players for less—where others may have missed it. That obviously doesn’t apply to quarterback, where Russ is as solid as ever of a fantasy bet—though Seattle really must think he’s going to burn down the kitchen every time he cooks, much like the fire alarm in my college dormitory. Whether he’s the Russ from the first half of last year, or the latter half, matters, both from a real life and fantasy perspective, as the former had him on a unanimous MVP trajectory, and the latter, just a good QB. An impressive receiving corps remains as well, including the two Tylers—Lockett, and Boyd (Jordan’s first Rookie Draft pick back in 2016), as well as 2020 rookie sensation Brandon Aiyuk, who somehow snuck under the radar to allow Jordan to hit a homer with his selection late in the first round of last year’s Rookie Draft. He added to that group with the dynamic Dyami Brown around the same spot this year, so he should be well positioned for a solid performance there once again, as it’s in the upper echelon of receiving corps league-wide. He also found deals in both Logan Thomas, and Dan Arnold last year—though Thomas, a converted college quarterback (And high school wideout/projected college TE) was obviously the prize. Now to Jordan’s lone concern from a year ago: running back. He was right to worry about his downfall due to that position, even if it didn’t necessarily materialize to the level in which his fears were espoused. While he still sports David Johnson—the lone existing player when he took over—Johnson has faded considerably from the figure he was in quick order. No longer a dynamic playmaker, as he was in Jordan’s own rookie campaign, Johnson has settled in to the bottom tier of starting running backs around the league, even with a quasi-revitalization in Houston last year. I can’t say I expect the same from this year, given that the Texans project to be the worst team in the NFL by a mile. If he becomes a stat accumulator as he did in a similarly moribund 2018 Cardinals offense, perhaps that benefits Jordan. Likewise, James Conner’s star has fallen, after he seamlessly replaced Le’Veon Bell in his sophomore year in 2018. Since then, injuries and ineffectiveness have plagued the cancer survivor, but a new environment—one with at least a competent offensive mind—in the desert may lift him up the ranks once again. While it’s understood that he’ll in no way have the vice grip on reps in Arizona, with continual pest Chase Edmonds always vying for and seemingly getting a large share of snaps, that could actually work to his advantage, as Pittsburgh never had a quality back that they could afford to spell him with when he was off the field. But those two names, decent as the may be, could actually wind up being Jordan’s third and fourth choice runners this year. That’s because he has addressed the position, both with a phenomenal trade that landed him presumed Falcons’ starter Mike Davis, and picking San Francisco’s nineteen-billionth running back (See what I did there?) in Trey Sermon with his first pick in this year’s Rookie Draft. Who knows what Kyle Shanahan plans to do with his yearly shiny new toy, but I think we can bet on it confusing and enraging the fantasy community, just like his dad, several times this year at least. Overall, Jacksonville’s offense is one of the top-10 in the league, and potentially top-5. Now on to my 2020 concern for Jordan: Defense. Once again, Jordan jettisoned his rookie draft picks on this side of the ball (And for good value), after they failed to produce as soon as he needed them, but brought in solid fantasy contributors all-around, and once again, supplemented them with a bevvy of rookie picks. John Bostic, and 2020 breakout Foyesade Olokun return at linebacker, flanked by known IDP quantity Jayon Brown, who is coming off his worst counting stats season since his rookie year due to injury. The influx of talent beyond those three include another first round pick in Pete Werner, whose instinctive play makes it seem like he has eyes all over his helmet…Buckeyes (Ka chow! You hate me, right?). Jordan also took a lark on Barron Browning, another Ohio State linebacker, whose physicality at the position is unmatched in this class by anyone not named Micah Parsons. The only problem is, per his tape, he seems to have equipped that aspect of his game (As well as the ‘try’ portion) with an off switch that he perpetually leaves in that position. If Denver can find a way to turn that on, he’s going to be a literal monster. If not, he’s going to be on a lot of offensive players’ highlight tape, getting stiff-armed by quarterbacks, and walking around the field as ballcarriers just yards away run free. At defensive back, Jacksonville also sports one of the best units, returning top-pass defending NFL DB, and newly-minted Cleveland Brown John Johnson with cerebral, and solid as they come Chuck Clark, and 2020 top-rookie performer Kamren Curl. Though Curl will likely be relegated to more of a third safety role in Washington, he’s proven he deserves to be on the field with his play. Further addition, Richie Grant, will likely patrol the back of Atlanta’s secondary for years to come, though it’s an open question if he will win the job by Week 1. On the defensive line, Maxx Crosby and Leonard Williams are the only two players, which likely requires some form of reinforcement to account for byes/injuries, though not an indictment of them as players. They’re each solid or better.
X-factor: Health. For the first time in four years, I’ve dropped the defense portion of the “Defense and Health” X-factor for Jordan. He’s made significant investments on both sides of the ball now, and this time did so at a higher level on the defensive end than years past. I think that will be a key difference for that unit, and will serve him well enough to say that, as far as an X-factor goes, health is the only concern (Outside of a niggling question about DL depth). Health provided, this team will be successful. The bigger question is, with so many 1-year players on his roster, much like other contending teams five or six years in (Or frankly, much earlier) the Jaguars are now facing a bit of a win or bust scenario. Yes, I still project Jacksonville to be some level of good in 2022, but it is almost time to ponder if those yearly reinvestments—significant though they may be—can carry a team that may lose its traditional core over the next two seasons. For now though, those questions can be tabled, as Jacksonville is clearly the class of the division once more—though, with a number of ascending teams in this division, I won’t commit to that being the case one year from now.
Projected division finish: 1st
Tennessee Titans (Erik)
Last year’s finish: 18th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Entering 2020, in his nine previous seasons in our league (I don’t know if he was an original 2009 member or not, as I don’t have access to those files), Erik had produced one .500 or better record (His 2015 Houston Texans went 9-3, and dominated the AFC in the regular season, but fell apart in the playoffs due to injuries and depth). But that’s it. One year of contention in at least nine seasons. I don’t say this to disparage Erik, but rather to point out how important his commitment to process and building it the right way. Case and point: Last year, his team sprang to life at least a year sooner than probably anyone expected, finishing 6-6, and 2-1 in division (Though I did say last year that, his starting lineup “has the look of a fringe-playoff team”). Though he just missed the playoffs due to a tiebreaker in the more competitive AFC, Erik, though his performance last season, and his willingness to take good draft deals, move back (And even patiently wait for a year) and accrue value is a warning shot across the bow of every team in this division, and perhaps the entire AFC. Already to his name is the young core of Daniel Jones, D’Andre Swift, Terry McLaurin, Mecole Hardman, Rashod Bateman, Kadarius Toney, Pat Freiermuth, and Albert O, and Hunter Long on offense, as none of them are over 25, or beyond their rookie contracts. Many a playoff team would be envious of that group. Defensively, it’s a horse of a different color, with still a lot of talent on that side of the ball, but also, an aged and veteran group, many of whom are only holding on by a thread. Danny Trevathan, in particular, has nearly played his way out of the league, but due to his contract, Chicago has been unwilling or unable to replace him so far. Added to that is the duo of the not quite ageless, but still effective Harrison Smith and K.J. Wright. Smith still anchors the Minnesota secondary, but as of yet, Wright is without a team. Further over-30 player Jason Pierre-Paul (Whose fantasy outlook always depends to some degree on which position he’s listed at), and Daniel Sorensen round out the veteran contingent. There are an appropriate amount of youngsters on the team—namely, Jarrad Davis, Krys Barnes, Blake Cashman, and Hamsah Nasirildeen. The question among those names is who will have a surefire fantasy role, especially as Green Bay brought in De’Vondre Campbell as a free agent, presumably relegating Barnes to a two-down role, as he was one of the worst third down linebackers in football last year as a surprise UDFA contributor. Overall, it speaks to a team in progress, but that hasn’t quite reached its zenith.
X-factor: Defense. I once again anticipate Erik beating his previous record from 2020, perhaps even nabbing one of those last playoff spots in the AFC. But it’s clear that most future investment, especially in terms of those draft picks, must navigate to the defensive side of the ball. While veteran stop gaps may get him there this year (Or may become attractive trade pieces at the deadline), it’s not a sustainable long-term plan—at least not this specific grouping of players, most of them well past their prime. The future of this franchise is bright, and the time of taking the Titans for granted as an easy win has passed.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Remember to watch out for the third of our divisional previews, as we stay in conference, but shift north, to check in on the AFC North. Look for it later this weekend. Thanks again guys.