Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Sept 7, 2016 23:14:17 GMT -5
AFC East
The latest flavor of the week in this divisional preview series is the AFC East, so we’ll examine the division that produced two 9-0 teams to start the year in 2014 and a #1 seeded Buffalo team last year. Will Sal repeat as the runaway division champ? Will New England return to past glory? Can Miami stake claim to another playoff spot (or more) as the division’s new blood? Or can Kevin finally get something going in another year of a long rebuild (I guess all four are possible)? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Buffalo Bills (Sal)
OFF: 88.68 (76.73 LY)
DEF: 71.94 (59.24 LY)
K: 8.69 (6.33 LY)
TOTAL: 169.31 3rd (142.3 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Jarvis Landry, Matt Ryan, Jordan Reed, Isaiah Crowell, Keenan Allen, Jamaal Charles, Julian Edelman
Defensive Impact Players: Paul Posluszny, Lawrence Timmons, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Calais Campbell, DeAndre Levy, Ibraheim Campbell, Kiko Alonso, Jason McCourty
Last year’s finish and recap- 3rd: Buffalo got off the ledger in a huge way, after beating up league runner-up Detroit in rivalry week, Sal’s Bills won a close bout with Tennessee, and then won the league’s first (to my knowledge) game in which both teams scored 200 points, over eventual champion Jacksonville 220-203. In Week 4 he mutilated Indy by ~50 points and won comfortably over Houston in Week 5. But the Bills weren’t done there, doubling up on the Giants in Week 6 and winning by less than 10 over the third-place Eagles before unloading on Dallas in Week 8. After racing out to an 8-0 record, however, Sal suffered a scoring lull in a Week 9 loss to the Redskins, and dropped even further still in a Week 10 win over moribund divisional foe New York. Still swaying, the Bills edged the Dolphins in a Week 11 contest that was well below their average point production, and ultimately fell to the Patriots in the season’s final week in another lackluster performance.
Outlook: Last year, Buffalo clinched the AFC’s #1 seed, and at least according to point projections, look like a strong bet to do it again. With an offense that features Keenan Allen, Jordan Reed, Jamaal Charles, Julian Edelman, and yes, Matt Ryan too, given health, Sal’s got it made in the shade. That quintet should go a long way in producing weekly thrashings of opponents, but it wouldn’t be complete without the dominant defense in place as well. IDP darlings DeAndre Levy, Paul Posluszny, Lawrence Timmons, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (And yes, I still feel weird calling him that for the record), and Calais Campbell highlight the core of Sal’s stellar unit (that almost sounds pornographic, but who doesn’t love some fantasy football porn?). Add Kiko Alonso, Jason McCourty and new blood Ibraheim Campbell and Blake Martinez to the equation, and again, you’ve got the makings of a special defense to pair with perhaps the league’s best offense. It’s going to be a good year in Buffalo (At least the fantasy one. I wonder if it’s warmer there too…).
X-factor: Health? I mean there’s not much that’s going to stand in Sal’s way of back-to-back AFC East Division championships, save not making good lineup choices (but even then, with his list of options on the bench, he should be insulated somewhat) and injuries. In fact, he’s already losing Dion Lewis for the first half of the year AT LEAST, and now that Jamaal Charles is suddenly looking like a committee back at best for the first few weeks of the season, it’s the number one threat to derail Sal’s dream season. He should still have enough depth to get through, but it’ll be a test of his RB depth, at least initially.
Projected division finish: 1st
Miami Dolphins (Castle)
OFF: 63.58 (58.79 LY)
DEF: 54.75 (53.83 LY)
K: 0 (4.58 LY)
TOTAL: 118.33 25th (117.2 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Demaryius Thomas, Danny Woodhead, DeMarco Murray, Willie Snead, Dwayne Harris, Robert Griffin III
Defensive Impact Players: Manti Te’o, Will Compton, Michael Bennett, Rashad Johnson
Last year’s finish and recap- 13th: Castle had a successful season in his first year in the league, finishing 7-5, a Wild Card team and a near win over former college teammate and AFC West Division Champion Denver (Steve). It all started out with an impressive debut (143 points) over New Orleans, but it came crashing back to Earth in Week 2 with a 30-point throttling at the hands of Erik’s Texans. But after back-to-back-to-back wins over Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee, the Dolphins were 4-1 and just one game behind in the win column to division leader Buffalo. Ultimately, that would change the next week with an excruciating .5 point loss to Washington, dropping Castle back two in the standings. Then in Weeks 7 and 8, he all but guaranteed Buffalo the division when the Bills were beaten by the Cowboys and Eagles handily, making MIA’s record 4-4 to BUF’s 8-0. It was still mathematically possible for the Dolphins (or even the Patriots at that point) to win the division (though the Pats were eliminated from the division race the next week), but it required Miami to go 4-0 while the undefeated Bills lost all four. Even though Miami got a game closer in Week 9, beating up on the hapless Giants as Buffalo was thumped by Washington for their first loss of the season, all the title hopes ended for Castle, as Sal’s Bills did just enough to beat the Jets and claim the title. The Dolphins beat the Patriots and Jets #asexpected, but lost to Buffalo to finish the regular season 7-5.
Outlook: Castle has a solid team that is banking on two things right now: 1. That Robert Griffin III returns as at least a competent quarterback after his disastrous play that led to his benching and exit in Washington, and 2. That he defense will hold up its end of the deal despite having few true impact players. Offensively, it’s much of the same from last year, though Griffin is a new name. Demaryius Thomas (now sans Peyton Manning), DeMarco Murray, Willie Snead, Jason Witten and Danny Woodhead will lead the way, but the number of depth options right now is slight (a bench of only 2 WRs). Defensively, there is an abundance of defensive linemen, only one of which (Michael Bennett) is projected to make an impact. Linebacker has some talent, with Compton and Te’o (Though I don’t necessarily agree with Fantrax on that order) Pernell McPhee (Who is currently on the reserve/PUP) and Derrick Morgan, who is likely to outperform his projection if healthy. But beyond that, and especially because of the injury to recent addition Josh Mauga, there are some question marks.
X-factor: Offensive depth. While Castle has a above average to good offensive unit and a defense to match, there’s not much waiting in the wings numbers-wise offensively. Some additions are necessary, and I expect we’ll see Castle take care of that in short order. But how well he does with those adds/pickups could determine what kind of season the Dolphins have in 2016 and whether Castle will avoid the dreaded “Sophomore slump.”
Projected division finish: 2nd
New England Patriots (Chris)
OFF: 34.09 (58.22 LY)
DEF: 50.68 (43.13 LY)
K: 11.62 (6 LY)
TOTAL: 96.39 30th (107.35 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Sam Bradford, Carson Wentz
Defensive Impact Players: Johnathan Cyprien, Prince Amukamara
Last year’s finish and recap- 21st: New England started the year out 2-0, with close wins over Oakland and Indianapolis, but immediately began to falter, losing to the Texans (by an ugly scoreline) and Titans the next two weeks. In Week 5, the Patriots were able to hold off league-champion Jacksonville in a surprising victory, moving the needle over .500 for the last time on the season, as it was all downhill from there. A thunderous win over the New York Giants in Week 8 was sandwiched by Dallas, Washington, Philadlphia, Miami and the New York Jets. It was only yet another shocker over the top-seeded Bills that allowed the Pats to finish the season one game under .500 at 5-7.
Outlook: New England had a turn of good luck when the Eagles announced that rookie Carson Wentz, and not the now traded Sam Bradford (who coincidentally he had just traded for) or super backup Chase Daniel, will start the season for the Eagles. With that said, there’s not a lot of weapons on the offensive side of the ball, and there’s a dearth of talent on the defensive side of the ball as well, though in sheer numbers, the defensive backfield could be a serviceable or better unit.
X-factor: Stock the arsenal. The key to New England’s 2016 campaign, and going forward, is for him to add assets and playmakers to build around Wentz. If he’s gradually able to do that, and if Wentz outplays his rookie QB pedigree, maybe 2016 won’t be as painful as it looks on paper for the Pats, and 2017 and beyond could be special.
Projected division finish: 4th
New York Jets (Kevin)
OFF: 46.23 (47.57 LY)
DEF: 64.68 (44.36 LY)
K: 10.06 (5.5 LY)
TOTAL: 120.97 22nd (97.43 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: T.Y. Hilton, Duke Johnson
Defensive Impact Players: LaVonte David, Harrison Smith, Vincent Rey, William Hayes, Eric Berry, Tashaun Gipson
Last year’s finish and recap- 31st: New York was again near the bottom, winning only twice on the season and peculiarly trading away the second overall pick he earned despite obvious needs on draft day.
Outlook: The additions Kevin made this off-season helped improve the Jets’ projection for 2016, and paired with a growing cast of possible fantasy producers on offense, like Duke Johnson, T.Y. Hilton, Marquise Lee and Niles Paul (assuming that he will resume his 2014 role/Jordan Reed will miss time like always) it appeared that New York was primed for a much better season (which kind of goes without saying, as you can’t get much worse than last or next-to-last) than in years past. With that said, there is (or was prior to Teddy Bridgewater going down) reason for optimism this year. For one, the draft day trade that he did make improves him this season, and with a healthy Bridgewater, it would have been a fun core to see Kevin build around. The defense projects to be much better than a year ago with the additions of David, Smith, Rey and a back to health Berry. But there are still some soft spots on the periphery of the starters/bench.
X-factor: Building for next year. Maybe this is harsh, and it’s got to be tough on Kevin to suffer through another rebuilding year (or it could perhaps be called a “waiting year”) until Bridgewater returns in 2017 (maybe), especially as he made moves that evidenced he was going in to compete this year. Such is the cruel nature of (fantasy) sports. The Jets don’t project to compete for a playoff spot at present, but it does, at least at the moment, look like they’ll be out of the cellar in the AFC East.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Remember to watch out for the eighth and final of our divisional previews tomorrow (Thursday).
The latest flavor of the week in this divisional preview series is the AFC East, so we’ll examine the division that produced two 9-0 teams to start the year in 2014 and a #1 seeded Buffalo team last year. Will Sal repeat as the runaway division champ? Will New England return to past glory? Can Miami stake claim to another playoff spot (or more) as the division’s new blood? Or can Kevin finally get something going in another year of a long rebuild (I guess all four are possible)? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Buffalo Bills (Sal)
OFF: 88.68 (76.73 LY)
DEF: 71.94 (59.24 LY)
K: 8.69 (6.33 LY)
TOTAL: 169.31 3rd (142.3 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Jarvis Landry, Matt Ryan, Jordan Reed, Isaiah Crowell, Keenan Allen, Jamaal Charles, Julian Edelman
Defensive Impact Players: Paul Posluszny, Lawrence Timmons, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Calais Campbell, DeAndre Levy, Ibraheim Campbell, Kiko Alonso, Jason McCourty
Last year’s finish and recap- 3rd: Buffalo got off the ledger in a huge way, after beating up league runner-up Detroit in rivalry week, Sal’s Bills won a close bout with Tennessee, and then won the league’s first (to my knowledge) game in which both teams scored 200 points, over eventual champion Jacksonville 220-203. In Week 4 he mutilated Indy by ~50 points and won comfortably over Houston in Week 5. But the Bills weren’t done there, doubling up on the Giants in Week 6 and winning by less than 10 over the third-place Eagles before unloading on Dallas in Week 8. After racing out to an 8-0 record, however, Sal suffered a scoring lull in a Week 9 loss to the Redskins, and dropped even further still in a Week 10 win over moribund divisional foe New York. Still swaying, the Bills edged the Dolphins in a Week 11 contest that was well below their average point production, and ultimately fell to the Patriots in the season’s final week in another lackluster performance.
Outlook: Last year, Buffalo clinched the AFC’s #1 seed, and at least according to point projections, look like a strong bet to do it again. With an offense that features Keenan Allen, Jordan Reed, Jamaal Charles, Julian Edelman, and yes, Matt Ryan too, given health, Sal’s got it made in the shade. That quintet should go a long way in producing weekly thrashings of opponents, but it wouldn’t be complete without the dominant defense in place as well. IDP darlings DeAndre Levy, Paul Posluszny, Lawrence Timmons, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (And yes, I still feel weird calling him that for the record), and Calais Campbell highlight the core of Sal’s stellar unit (that almost sounds pornographic, but who doesn’t love some fantasy football porn?). Add Kiko Alonso, Jason McCourty and new blood Ibraheim Campbell and Blake Martinez to the equation, and again, you’ve got the makings of a special defense to pair with perhaps the league’s best offense. It’s going to be a good year in Buffalo (At least the fantasy one. I wonder if it’s warmer there too…).
X-factor: Health? I mean there’s not much that’s going to stand in Sal’s way of back-to-back AFC East Division championships, save not making good lineup choices (but even then, with his list of options on the bench, he should be insulated somewhat) and injuries. In fact, he’s already losing Dion Lewis for the first half of the year AT LEAST, and now that Jamaal Charles is suddenly looking like a committee back at best for the first few weeks of the season, it’s the number one threat to derail Sal’s dream season. He should still have enough depth to get through, but it’ll be a test of his RB depth, at least initially.
Projected division finish: 1st
Miami Dolphins (Castle)
OFF: 63.58 (58.79 LY)
DEF: 54.75 (53.83 LY)
K: 0 (4.58 LY)
TOTAL: 118.33 25th (117.2 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Demaryius Thomas, Danny Woodhead, DeMarco Murray, Willie Snead, Dwayne Harris, Robert Griffin III
Defensive Impact Players: Manti Te’o, Will Compton, Michael Bennett, Rashad Johnson
Last year’s finish and recap- 13th: Castle had a successful season in his first year in the league, finishing 7-5, a Wild Card team and a near win over former college teammate and AFC West Division Champion Denver (Steve). It all started out with an impressive debut (143 points) over New Orleans, but it came crashing back to Earth in Week 2 with a 30-point throttling at the hands of Erik’s Texans. But after back-to-back-to-back wins over Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee, the Dolphins were 4-1 and just one game behind in the win column to division leader Buffalo. Ultimately, that would change the next week with an excruciating .5 point loss to Washington, dropping Castle back two in the standings. Then in Weeks 7 and 8, he all but guaranteed Buffalo the division when the Bills were beaten by the Cowboys and Eagles handily, making MIA’s record 4-4 to BUF’s 8-0. It was still mathematically possible for the Dolphins (or even the Patriots at that point) to win the division (though the Pats were eliminated from the division race the next week), but it required Miami to go 4-0 while the undefeated Bills lost all four. Even though Miami got a game closer in Week 9, beating up on the hapless Giants as Buffalo was thumped by Washington for their first loss of the season, all the title hopes ended for Castle, as Sal’s Bills did just enough to beat the Jets and claim the title. The Dolphins beat the Patriots and Jets #asexpected, but lost to Buffalo to finish the regular season 7-5.
Outlook: Castle has a solid team that is banking on two things right now: 1. That Robert Griffin III returns as at least a competent quarterback after his disastrous play that led to his benching and exit in Washington, and 2. That he defense will hold up its end of the deal despite having few true impact players. Offensively, it’s much of the same from last year, though Griffin is a new name. Demaryius Thomas (now sans Peyton Manning), DeMarco Murray, Willie Snead, Jason Witten and Danny Woodhead will lead the way, but the number of depth options right now is slight (a bench of only 2 WRs). Defensively, there is an abundance of defensive linemen, only one of which (Michael Bennett) is projected to make an impact. Linebacker has some talent, with Compton and Te’o (Though I don’t necessarily agree with Fantrax on that order) Pernell McPhee (Who is currently on the reserve/PUP) and Derrick Morgan, who is likely to outperform his projection if healthy. But beyond that, and especially because of the injury to recent addition Josh Mauga, there are some question marks.
X-factor: Offensive depth. While Castle has a above average to good offensive unit and a defense to match, there’s not much waiting in the wings numbers-wise offensively. Some additions are necessary, and I expect we’ll see Castle take care of that in short order. But how well he does with those adds/pickups could determine what kind of season the Dolphins have in 2016 and whether Castle will avoid the dreaded “Sophomore slump.”
Projected division finish: 2nd
New England Patriots (Chris)
OFF: 34.09 (58.22 LY)
DEF: 50.68 (43.13 LY)
K: 11.62 (6 LY)
TOTAL: 96.39 30th (107.35 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Sam Bradford, Carson Wentz
Defensive Impact Players: Johnathan Cyprien, Prince Amukamara
Last year’s finish and recap- 21st: New England started the year out 2-0, with close wins over Oakland and Indianapolis, but immediately began to falter, losing to the Texans (by an ugly scoreline) and Titans the next two weeks. In Week 5, the Patriots were able to hold off league-champion Jacksonville in a surprising victory, moving the needle over .500 for the last time on the season, as it was all downhill from there. A thunderous win over the New York Giants in Week 8 was sandwiched by Dallas, Washington, Philadlphia, Miami and the New York Jets. It was only yet another shocker over the top-seeded Bills that allowed the Pats to finish the season one game under .500 at 5-7.
Outlook: New England had a turn of good luck when the Eagles announced that rookie Carson Wentz, and not the now traded Sam Bradford (who coincidentally he had just traded for) or super backup Chase Daniel, will start the season for the Eagles. With that said, there’s not a lot of weapons on the offensive side of the ball, and there’s a dearth of talent on the defensive side of the ball as well, though in sheer numbers, the defensive backfield could be a serviceable or better unit.
X-factor: Stock the arsenal. The key to New England’s 2016 campaign, and going forward, is for him to add assets and playmakers to build around Wentz. If he’s gradually able to do that, and if Wentz outplays his rookie QB pedigree, maybe 2016 won’t be as painful as it looks on paper for the Pats, and 2017 and beyond could be special.
Projected division finish: 4th
New York Jets (Kevin)
OFF: 46.23 (47.57 LY)
DEF: 64.68 (44.36 LY)
K: 10.06 (5.5 LY)
TOTAL: 120.97 22nd (97.43 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: T.Y. Hilton, Duke Johnson
Defensive Impact Players: LaVonte David, Harrison Smith, Vincent Rey, William Hayes, Eric Berry, Tashaun Gipson
Last year’s finish and recap- 31st: New York was again near the bottom, winning only twice on the season and peculiarly trading away the second overall pick he earned despite obvious needs on draft day.
Outlook: The additions Kevin made this off-season helped improve the Jets’ projection for 2016, and paired with a growing cast of possible fantasy producers on offense, like Duke Johnson, T.Y. Hilton, Marquise Lee and Niles Paul (assuming that he will resume his 2014 role/Jordan Reed will miss time like always) it appeared that New York was primed for a much better season (which kind of goes without saying, as you can’t get much worse than last or next-to-last) than in years past. With that said, there is (or was prior to Teddy Bridgewater going down) reason for optimism this year. For one, the draft day trade that he did make improves him this season, and with a healthy Bridgewater, it would have been a fun core to see Kevin build around. The defense projects to be much better than a year ago with the additions of David, Smith, Rey and a back to health Berry. But there are still some soft spots on the periphery of the starters/bench.
X-factor: Building for next year. Maybe this is harsh, and it’s got to be tough on Kevin to suffer through another rebuilding year (or it could perhaps be called a “waiting year”) until Bridgewater returns in 2017 (maybe), especially as he made moves that evidenced he was going in to compete this year. Such is the cruel nature of (fantasy) sports. The Jets don’t project to compete for a playoff spot at present, but it does, at least at the moment, look like they’ll be out of the cellar in the AFC East.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Remember to watch out for the eighth and final of our divisional previews tomorrow (Thursday).