Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Sept 5, 2016 17:04:59 GMT -5
NFC South
This time we take the NFC South to task. Two years ago the worst division in league history, last year the South made large and quantifiable leaps as a division, sporting a division winner with a winning record and at times looked dominant and two others who finished .500. Can they sustain that improvement? And can Atlanta finally get some good luck? Let’s examine right now. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Atlanta Falcons (Tim)
OFF: 53.21 (48.62 LY)
DEF: 52.81 (43.5 LY)
K: 7.75 (6.08 LY)
TOTAL: 113.77 27th (98.2 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Jay Cutler, Sammy Watkins, Ronnie Hillman, Eric Ebron
Defensive Impact Players: Stephone Anthony, Paul Worrillow, James Laurinaitis, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Last year’s finish and recap- 29th: Atlanta was perhaps the most enigmatic scoring team last season, finishing each of the first five weeks of the season ranked 29th or lower, and each of Weeks 6-10 above 21st (including two top-5 finishes in Weeks 7 and 9), but then fell to 32nd in Week 11 before climbing back into the top half (14th). That would explain why the Falcons started 0-5, all in blowout fashion, and went 3-2 over the next 5-game stretch. That said, Atlanta was out of the NFC South from early on and even with the 3 wins during the stretch run, finished a lowly 3-9.
Outlook: Every year that I have handled power rankings, I find myself thinking/asking, “when is it going to be Atlanta’s year?” After all, with Tim adding names like Sammy Watkins, Calvin Johnson, Jay Cutler, Karlos Williams, Stephone Anthony and Eric Ebron, it would, in any normal universe signal the beginnings of a budding superstar. But unfortunately for Tim, Megatron’s shockingly early retirement (must be a Detroit thing), Williams’ matching his pregnant wife’s binge-eating spree and substance abuse issues got him canned in year-2 in Buffalo (man we’re seeing teams giving up on guys earlier than ever before now), Anthony got moved off of his MLB spot to the outside after a lackluster rookie year (not in fantasy mind you), Ebron has been slower to develop than projected and has also been slowed by injuries, and Watkins’ career has been derailed so far by injuries. Things just haven’t gone Tim’s way, though of course there are avenues to better fantasy results short of Calvin Johnson making an equally surprising announcement that he’s coming out of retirement (i.e. Watkins’ health, Cutler building on a strong 2015, Williams getting reinstated and signed mid-season, Hillman finding a home/a role, Ebron becoming what everyone thought he was in year-3, and Anthony reclaiming his spot in the middle in 2017). That said, there are some real issues on this roster, mainly on offense. Beyond Cutler, Watkins and Ebron, there isn’t a lot in terms of fantasy value. Sure, as mentioned above, if one or both of the running backs currently jobless gets picked up, that could significantly improve the Falcons’ offensive outlook. But there are double digit offensive players on Atlanta’s roster that might not reach double digits in total points on the season as it stands now. Defensively, outside of a shortage of DL, it’s an average to above average unit.
X-factor: Running back. It feels strange to single out one position in need of improvement for Tim’s Falcons, but unless he rectifies this position, it’s hard to see ATL making any sort of noise or being fantasy relevant.
Projected division finish: 4th
Carolina Panthers (Justin)
OFF: 65.03 (43.46 LY)
DEF: 66.41 (51.49 LY)
K: 9.19 (6.5 LY)
TOTAL: 140.63 12th (101.45 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Marcus Mariota, Alshon Jeffery, Ezekiel Elliott
Defensive Impact Players: Danny Trevathan, Khalil Mack, Kenny Vaccaro, Eric Weddle
Last year’s finish and recap- 18th: Last year Sze got the Panthers back to .500, but his attention waned, and so for the first time since 2012, Carolina has a new GM. Sze opened up the year with a win over his friend Norman (SF), and added another victory in Week 4 over friend and former co-worker Matt (MIN), but it was his Week 5 win over the Bears that tied Carolina with New Orleans for the division lead. But the Panthers didn’t enter the victory column again until Week 8, and with two Saints wins in the interim, it put the Panthers in a bind to try to get back in the race. While they did just that, keeping pace with New Orleans in Week 9, the Panthers’ division chances ended the very next week with a loss to New Orleans giving the Saints a 2-game lead with a head-to-head tie-breaker. Carolina ensured their winning season with a win over Atlanta in Week 11, but was utterly undone against Tampa Bay in Week 12, ending their season due to playoff tiebreaker scenarios.
Outlook: Justin’s Panthers received some bad news recently, as projected starting MLB Jasper Brinkley was released outright by the Giants. He may sign on elsewhere, but unlikely as a starter, as New York has one of the worst linebacking corps in football. That’s bad news for Justin, who was counting on his production and is now relying on some washed up/unproven options at LB (and to be honest, I had flirted with CAR as the division’s #1 team prior to this). Offensively, this team has the talent to fly high in the second half of the season at the latest. Marcus Mariota returns after a very promising rookie year, and given health, will be a huge force for Carolina. Alshon Jeffery should once again be a strong WR1 candidate, and the acquisition of Ezekiel Elliott in the rookie draft puts the Panthers on the fast track for success. Additionally, rookie Michael Thomas and second-year tight end Clive Walford are somewhat of a sleeper duo, who could (and likely will) easily outperform their projections with plenty of targets up for grabs in their respective pass-heavy offenses. But beyond backup running back, there are some question marks (not only about Ladarius Green’s concussions/status, but also, where are the WRs?). Defensively, as mentioned before, Brinkley’s release hurts, but Khalil Mack, Danny Trevathan, Kenny Vaccaro and Eric Weddle still remain as key cogs of this Panthers’ unit. If rookie Darian Thompson could return to health, he could also provide value at the back end. It is key to note though, that this defense’s projection is not only propped up by Brinkley’s projected points, but also rookie linebacker Scooby Wright III, who is currently earmarked for 8.62 PPG despite sitting no higher than fourth on the Browns’ ILB depth chart, a beyond lofty prediction despite the fact that I thought he was the best inside linebacker in the draft. As the saying goes, that dog don’t hunt.
X-factor: WR/LB depth. Carolina’s offense has the ability to take it to the top of the division with some good breaks, but nobody and I mean nobody (okay maybe Cecil, at least until the Super Bowl) gets good breaks 100% of the time. This format doesn’t require that you have a preponderance of depth, but there needs to be some, even for the best teams/starting lineups. So Justin must get to work on upping some of his ancillary options behind his starting WRs/LBs, or else he could go from the GM of a team that is almost assured of serious Wild Card contention to a team that bottoms out in the South.
Projected division finish: 2nd
New Orleans (Vic)
OFF: 73.57 (74.45 LY)
DEF: 60.61 (44.18 LY)
K: 11.25 (6 LY)
TOTAL: 145.43 10th (124.63 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Tyrod Taylor, Devonta Freeman, A.J. Green, Allen Hurns, Tavon Austin
Defensive Impact Players: NaVorro Bowman, Michael Wilhoite, Ron Parker, Calvin Pryor
Last year’s finish and recap- 11th: New Orleans took two tough losses to start the season, dropping a high-scoring game vs. Miami (142+-131+) and a one-pointer to Minnesota. But Vic’s Saints came back in Week 3 with a vengeance, blowing out Chicago by 50+ and following that up with a 170-pointer in a win over Green Bay in Week 4. In Week 5, he reclaimed part of the division lead with his third-straight 20-plus point win over an NFC North foe, this time in Super Bowl runner-up Detroit. The next week, Vic took full ownership of the NFC South lead, beating Kansas City, and never surrendered it. Entering division play 6-3, the Saints handled the Panthers and locked up the division in Week 10 in a low-scoring game, but faltered big time in a loss to Tampa Bay the following week before closing the regular season out in style over the Falcons in Week 12. But the dream was over one week into the postseason, as Philadelphia obliterated New Orleans by 80+ points.
Outlook: Entering the off-season, the whole division was looking up at New Orleans, and despite some moves by Carolina to get the Panthers closer, the off-season ends the same way it began: with NO the favorite to repeat. Devonta Freeman, A.J. Green, Tyrod Taylor and Allen Hurns lead one of the league’s most explosive offenses, and even if at least 3-out-of-4 of those names are likely to come back to Earth a little this year, they should still provide the Saints with plenty of punch. Virgil Green is a wild card that could provide additional value as well. The bench is a hodgepodge of players who could make minimal impacts and those who are a ways away. Defensively, the unit doesn’t stand out, but has several playmakers (Bowman, Pryor, Parker and Wilhoite) who should prove enough of a complement to the offense for the Saints to repeat as kings of the South.
X-factor: Offensive depth. Unless this bench is improved by Vic or simply the circumstances that dictate the necessity for depth in real football as well, Vic might be fading down the stretch and into the playoffs again this year.
Projected division finish: 1st
Tampa Bay (Mike)
OFF: 57.66 (50.05 LY)
DEF: 63.15 (53.05 LY)
K: 10.69 (7.08 LY)
TOTAL: 131.5 17th (110.18 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Kamar Aiken, Danny Amendola, Theo Riddick, Blaine Gabbert
Defensive Impact Players: Malcolm Smith, K.J. Wright, Patrick Chung, Clayton Geathers, Cameron Wake
Last year’s finish and recap- 17th: Tampa opened the year with a near 20-point win over the Jets, but it wasn’t a sign of things to come, as the Bucs didn’t win again until Week 6 against San Diego, and then promptly dropped two more to fall to 2-6. But that only served to set up one of the most furious playoff pushes in league history, as the Bucs ripped off 4-straight wins to get TB back to .500. Sadly, that and a second-place division finish was not enough to get the Bucs over the hump, as they fell just short of the playoffs by one spot.
Outlook: Tampa Bay has made some bold moves to improve his fortunes in the division, but it is not yet clear if they have paid off in the short term/will pay off in the long run. Mike drafted Jared Goff, DeAndre Washington, Malcolm Mitchell, Wendell Smallwood and Josh Ferguson (though he gave up on the final of those names prior to the news that Ferguson in fact made the Colts’ 53-man roster), and added Kyle Rudolph, Cameron Wake and Arik Armstead in the UFA Draft. While those are stated improvements that raise the talent of this team, some of them are likely more long-term investments and others, at least based on the pre-season (which is admittedly a specious method of judging a player’s abilities off of their performance, and a small sample size at that), may not pan out at all. Therefore, offensively, it’s a mish-mash of players who may contribute this year and those who won’t, not a formula for success in any fantasy format that puts an emphasis on now. Defensively, the Bucs sport perhaps the division’s best defense. The one weakness: the defensive line, both in numbers and the starters’ projected totals (looking at you Armstead). If Mike can improve that spot and the depth on the unit as a whole, he’ll be looking at one of the top-half, perhaps even top-10 defenses in the league.
X-factor: Depth. Just like many teams at this point, it’s hard to see/know what a team may look like in a few weeks because they’re not fully fleshed out. As a result, there are a range of possibilities for the Bucs, and I could see them finishing as far back as 4th and as high as 2nd (sorry, I think Vic has control of this division until I’m shown otherwise). But, stranger things have happened in the South, and recently too (see a 4-8 team winning the division in 2014).
Projected division finish: 3rd
Remember to watch out for the seventh of our divisional previews tomorrow.
This time we take the NFC South to task. Two years ago the worst division in league history, last year the South made large and quantifiable leaps as a division, sporting a division winner with a winning record and at times looked dominant and two others who finished .500. Can they sustain that improvement? And can Atlanta finally get some good luck? Let’s examine right now. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Atlanta Falcons (Tim)
OFF: 53.21 (48.62 LY)
DEF: 52.81 (43.5 LY)
K: 7.75 (6.08 LY)
TOTAL: 113.77 27th (98.2 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Jay Cutler, Sammy Watkins, Ronnie Hillman, Eric Ebron
Defensive Impact Players: Stephone Anthony, Paul Worrillow, James Laurinaitis, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Last year’s finish and recap- 29th: Atlanta was perhaps the most enigmatic scoring team last season, finishing each of the first five weeks of the season ranked 29th or lower, and each of Weeks 6-10 above 21st (including two top-5 finishes in Weeks 7 and 9), but then fell to 32nd in Week 11 before climbing back into the top half (14th). That would explain why the Falcons started 0-5, all in blowout fashion, and went 3-2 over the next 5-game stretch. That said, Atlanta was out of the NFC South from early on and even with the 3 wins during the stretch run, finished a lowly 3-9.
Outlook: Every year that I have handled power rankings, I find myself thinking/asking, “when is it going to be Atlanta’s year?” After all, with Tim adding names like Sammy Watkins, Calvin Johnson, Jay Cutler, Karlos Williams, Stephone Anthony and Eric Ebron, it would, in any normal universe signal the beginnings of a budding superstar. But unfortunately for Tim, Megatron’s shockingly early retirement (must be a Detroit thing), Williams’ matching his pregnant wife’s binge-eating spree and substance abuse issues got him canned in year-2 in Buffalo (man we’re seeing teams giving up on guys earlier than ever before now), Anthony got moved off of his MLB spot to the outside after a lackluster rookie year (not in fantasy mind you), Ebron has been slower to develop than projected and has also been slowed by injuries, and Watkins’ career has been derailed so far by injuries. Things just haven’t gone Tim’s way, though of course there are avenues to better fantasy results short of Calvin Johnson making an equally surprising announcement that he’s coming out of retirement (i.e. Watkins’ health, Cutler building on a strong 2015, Williams getting reinstated and signed mid-season, Hillman finding a home/a role, Ebron becoming what everyone thought he was in year-3, and Anthony reclaiming his spot in the middle in 2017). That said, there are some real issues on this roster, mainly on offense. Beyond Cutler, Watkins and Ebron, there isn’t a lot in terms of fantasy value. Sure, as mentioned above, if one or both of the running backs currently jobless gets picked up, that could significantly improve the Falcons’ offensive outlook. But there are double digit offensive players on Atlanta’s roster that might not reach double digits in total points on the season as it stands now. Defensively, outside of a shortage of DL, it’s an average to above average unit.
X-factor: Running back. It feels strange to single out one position in need of improvement for Tim’s Falcons, but unless he rectifies this position, it’s hard to see ATL making any sort of noise or being fantasy relevant.
Projected division finish: 4th
Carolina Panthers (Justin)
OFF: 65.03 (43.46 LY)
DEF: 66.41 (51.49 LY)
K: 9.19 (6.5 LY)
TOTAL: 140.63 12th (101.45 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Marcus Mariota, Alshon Jeffery, Ezekiel Elliott
Defensive Impact Players: Danny Trevathan, Khalil Mack, Kenny Vaccaro, Eric Weddle
Last year’s finish and recap- 18th: Last year Sze got the Panthers back to .500, but his attention waned, and so for the first time since 2012, Carolina has a new GM. Sze opened up the year with a win over his friend Norman (SF), and added another victory in Week 4 over friend and former co-worker Matt (MIN), but it was his Week 5 win over the Bears that tied Carolina with New Orleans for the division lead. But the Panthers didn’t enter the victory column again until Week 8, and with two Saints wins in the interim, it put the Panthers in a bind to try to get back in the race. While they did just that, keeping pace with New Orleans in Week 9, the Panthers’ division chances ended the very next week with a loss to New Orleans giving the Saints a 2-game lead with a head-to-head tie-breaker. Carolina ensured their winning season with a win over Atlanta in Week 11, but was utterly undone against Tampa Bay in Week 12, ending their season due to playoff tiebreaker scenarios.
Outlook: Justin’s Panthers received some bad news recently, as projected starting MLB Jasper Brinkley was released outright by the Giants. He may sign on elsewhere, but unlikely as a starter, as New York has one of the worst linebacking corps in football. That’s bad news for Justin, who was counting on his production and is now relying on some washed up/unproven options at LB (and to be honest, I had flirted with CAR as the division’s #1 team prior to this). Offensively, this team has the talent to fly high in the second half of the season at the latest. Marcus Mariota returns after a very promising rookie year, and given health, will be a huge force for Carolina. Alshon Jeffery should once again be a strong WR1 candidate, and the acquisition of Ezekiel Elliott in the rookie draft puts the Panthers on the fast track for success. Additionally, rookie Michael Thomas and second-year tight end Clive Walford are somewhat of a sleeper duo, who could (and likely will) easily outperform their projections with plenty of targets up for grabs in their respective pass-heavy offenses. But beyond backup running back, there are some question marks (not only about Ladarius Green’s concussions/status, but also, where are the WRs?). Defensively, as mentioned before, Brinkley’s release hurts, but Khalil Mack, Danny Trevathan, Kenny Vaccaro and Eric Weddle still remain as key cogs of this Panthers’ unit. If rookie Darian Thompson could return to health, he could also provide value at the back end. It is key to note though, that this defense’s projection is not only propped up by Brinkley’s projected points, but also rookie linebacker Scooby Wright III, who is currently earmarked for 8.62 PPG despite sitting no higher than fourth on the Browns’ ILB depth chart, a beyond lofty prediction despite the fact that I thought he was the best inside linebacker in the draft. As the saying goes, that dog don’t hunt.
X-factor: WR/LB depth. Carolina’s offense has the ability to take it to the top of the division with some good breaks, but nobody and I mean nobody (okay maybe Cecil, at least until the Super Bowl) gets good breaks 100% of the time. This format doesn’t require that you have a preponderance of depth, but there needs to be some, even for the best teams/starting lineups. So Justin must get to work on upping some of his ancillary options behind his starting WRs/LBs, or else he could go from the GM of a team that is almost assured of serious Wild Card contention to a team that bottoms out in the South.
Projected division finish: 2nd
New Orleans (Vic)
OFF: 73.57 (74.45 LY)
DEF: 60.61 (44.18 LY)
K: 11.25 (6 LY)
TOTAL: 145.43 10th (124.63 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Tyrod Taylor, Devonta Freeman, A.J. Green, Allen Hurns, Tavon Austin
Defensive Impact Players: NaVorro Bowman, Michael Wilhoite, Ron Parker, Calvin Pryor
Last year’s finish and recap- 11th: New Orleans took two tough losses to start the season, dropping a high-scoring game vs. Miami (142+-131+) and a one-pointer to Minnesota. But Vic’s Saints came back in Week 3 with a vengeance, blowing out Chicago by 50+ and following that up with a 170-pointer in a win over Green Bay in Week 4. In Week 5, he reclaimed part of the division lead with his third-straight 20-plus point win over an NFC North foe, this time in Super Bowl runner-up Detroit. The next week, Vic took full ownership of the NFC South lead, beating Kansas City, and never surrendered it. Entering division play 6-3, the Saints handled the Panthers and locked up the division in Week 10 in a low-scoring game, but faltered big time in a loss to Tampa Bay the following week before closing the regular season out in style over the Falcons in Week 12. But the dream was over one week into the postseason, as Philadelphia obliterated New Orleans by 80+ points.
Outlook: Entering the off-season, the whole division was looking up at New Orleans, and despite some moves by Carolina to get the Panthers closer, the off-season ends the same way it began: with NO the favorite to repeat. Devonta Freeman, A.J. Green, Tyrod Taylor and Allen Hurns lead one of the league’s most explosive offenses, and even if at least 3-out-of-4 of those names are likely to come back to Earth a little this year, they should still provide the Saints with plenty of punch. Virgil Green is a wild card that could provide additional value as well. The bench is a hodgepodge of players who could make minimal impacts and those who are a ways away. Defensively, the unit doesn’t stand out, but has several playmakers (Bowman, Pryor, Parker and Wilhoite) who should prove enough of a complement to the offense for the Saints to repeat as kings of the South.
X-factor: Offensive depth. Unless this bench is improved by Vic or simply the circumstances that dictate the necessity for depth in real football as well, Vic might be fading down the stretch and into the playoffs again this year.
Projected division finish: 1st
Tampa Bay (Mike)
OFF: 57.66 (50.05 LY)
DEF: 63.15 (53.05 LY)
K: 10.69 (7.08 LY)
TOTAL: 131.5 17th (110.18 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Kamar Aiken, Danny Amendola, Theo Riddick, Blaine Gabbert
Defensive Impact Players: Malcolm Smith, K.J. Wright, Patrick Chung, Clayton Geathers, Cameron Wake
Last year’s finish and recap- 17th: Tampa opened the year with a near 20-point win over the Jets, but it wasn’t a sign of things to come, as the Bucs didn’t win again until Week 6 against San Diego, and then promptly dropped two more to fall to 2-6. But that only served to set up one of the most furious playoff pushes in league history, as the Bucs ripped off 4-straight wins to get TB back to .500. Sadly, that and a second-place division finish was not enough to get the Bucs over the hump, as they fell just short of the playoffs by one spot.
Outlook: Tampa Bay has made some bold moves to improve his fortunes in the division, but it is not yet clear if they have paid off in the short term/will pay off in the long run. Mike drafted Jared Goff, DeAndre Washington, Malcolm Mitchell, Wendell Smallwood and Josh Ferguson (though he gave up on the final of those names prior to the news that Ferguson in fact made the Colts’ 53-man roster), and added Kyle Rudolph, Cameron Wake and Arik Armstead in the UFA Draft. While those are stated improvements that raise the talent of this team, some of them are likely more long-term investments and others, at least based on the pre-season (which is admittedly a specious method of judging a player’s abilities off of their performance, and a small sample size at that), may not pan out at all. Therefore, offensively, it’s a mish-mash of players who may contribute this year and those who won’t, not a formula for success in any fantasy format that puts an emphasis on now. Defensively, the Bucs sport perhaps the division’s best defense. The one weakness: the defensive line, both in numbers and the starters’ projected totals (looking at you Armstead). If Mike can improve that spot and the depth on the unit as a whole, he’ll be looking at one of the top-half, perhaps even top-10 defenses in the league.
X-factor: Depth. Just like many teams at this point, it’s hard to see/know what a team may look like in a few weeks because they’re not fully fleshed out. As a result, there are a range of possibilities for the Bucs, and I could see them finishing as far back as 4th and as high as 2nd (sorry, I think Vic has control of this division until I’m shown otherwise). But, stranger things have happened in the South, and recently too (see a 4-8 team winning the division in 2014).
Projected division finish: 3rd
Remember to watch out for the seventh of our divisional previews tomorrow.