Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Sept 13, 2020 7:41:35 GMT -5
AFC WEST
The AFC West has been on this path for awhile: Four truly good teams, ready to battle it out for supremacy of a division that has gone Trey’s way for four years running. Steve won the division (His lone AFC West crown) in 2015, but it’s Brooks’ insertion back into the fold (Himself a three-time winner of the West from 2012-14, and league Hall of Fame member) that made this division a truly treacherous one to project. Though the Chargers’ point total bordered on elite in 2019, the division itself didn’t produce a team with better than an 8-4 record, likely because the division once again beat up on one another (Whereas three teams were between the records of 7-5 and 5-7 in 2018, the same number were between 6-6 and 8-4 in 2019, and all three of those teams went 2-1 in division), nearly completing a transitive property outcome. The division title itself broke to Trey by just a point, by nature of a head-to-head win over Oakland (Now Las Vegas—and it’s gonna take me a while to get that right). Imagine a division that close a year ago, and then imagine one that adds a HOF member who immediately began putting together what now looks to be a fringe-playoff roster, and you have the 2020 iteration of the AFC West. Can Brooks get back on the horse immediately wrangle back what was so long ago his? Will Steve finally put the necessary pieces together to make the run that his team’s talent so long promised? Can Hunter improve just enough to pass Trey this time? Or will the division championship stay with the incumbent (Trey), tying him with the all-time mark for consecutive division wins? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Denver Broncos (Steve)
Last year’s finish: 14th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: 2019 was a very positive step in the right direction for Steve, who got back into the playoffs for the first time since that 2015 division championship—and making a good showing as well, putting up a 151-spot in the First Round, which would have won two of the other AFC playoff matchups had he been in them instead. Not to take away from that accomplishment, but the real feat was getting there in the first place. Entering Week 7, Steve’s Broncos were 1-5, meaning he went on a streak of 6-straight wins before succumbing to Oakland in Week 12, to cement his place as third in the division and the #7 seed in the playoffs. Few, if any, have ever had a more profound mid-season, and that turnaround should carry over to 2020 if Steve’s in-season activity improves. In some ways, the turnaround for Steve started back in 2016, when after a Tony Romo injury, he placed a speculative $2/4y bid on an undrafted (In our league) backup named Dak Prescott. Four years later, he’s still the quarterback for this Denver offense. At running back, Steve has finally found a mix of backs that should receive plenty of opportunity this year, first with his pick of David Montgomery last year, Raheem Mostert, his FA acquisition from 2018 (Which, trust me, took a LOT of patience to hold onto considering his late season injury that year, which looked like a career-ender), and this year’s First Rounder AJ Dillon—though the final name of those three looks to have his touches delayed, due to not enough reps with no summer program, and two superior backs ahead of him on the depth chart. Steve also has change of pace player Jaylen Samuels, and Samaje Perine, who is apparently on the Bengals, on his roster. It is his next position which is his biggest problem area: Wide receiver. While Steve had a great draft in 2019—adding Diontae Johnson later in the round after trading up for Montgomery—he has looked for mostly fill-ins over the last couple of years to supplement the position. Two of those types make out the rest of his receiving corps (Randall Cobb and Josh Gordon), though Antonio Callaway, a draft pick of Steve’s, has failed to prove anything more than a constant headache for all parties involved. At tight end, Jared Cook returns in the last year of his deal, and should still be a solid option in this league. Defensively, Steve sports a construction very similar to his offense. The defensive line is a mixed bag, with standout Chris Jones currently the only viable player, with Carl Lawson and A.J. Epenesa yet to prove anything as pros. Linebacker, however, is one of the best units in the league for Steve’s Broncos. The Smiths lead a unit that also includes Anthony Barr and Nathan Gerry, two players who can be above average or better, and two pass rushers in Whitney Mercilus (Still the best name for a defender in football), and Oshane Ximines (Whom Steve was highly unlucky to have reclassified as a LB this year). In the secondary, the Broncos have the services of Jarrod Wilson, Richard Sherman, and Pierre Desir. It’s an average-ish unit that shouldn’t do much in terms of holding the defense back this year.
X-factor: Wide receiver. Steve needs to go out and make a splash here, as if he’s to be a contending team, he can’t simply rely on two receivers who are not even stars on their respective teams. He has very clearly entered his window for contention, and it would be a shame to see it all be held up by a shortage at one position, especially when he had the assets to improve himself at that position. Until he does make those improvements though, I can’t see him progressing past third in this division.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Kansas City Chiefs (Brooks)
Last year’s finish: 25th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: After five years away from the league (And yet he’s still 13th All-time in wins), Brooks returns and immediately remakes himself into a team to be reckoned with. A strong draft netted him presumptive Rookie of the Year favorite Joe Burrow, alongside of projected Rams’ lead back Cam Akers, Carolina DL Derrick Brown, and New England two-deep safety Kyle Dugger. That group pairs with a roster that Amanda had either intentionally or unintentionally, turned into a team for the future, rather than the present. At running back, Brooks has one of the deepest position groups in the league, with rookie (And apparent Jacksonville RBBC leader) James Robinson, as well as Devonta Freeman, Damien Harris, and Ryquell Armstead. While some may not get full opportunity early on (Including Armstead, and Harris, who are on Injured Reserve, and Freeman, who to date, remains unsigned), it’s likely that Brooks is able to trade from this position to supplement others later in the year. At wide receiver, the Chiefs boast a few quality options in Jamison Crowder, and DeSean Jackson, though Justin Watson could also become one if he wins Tampa Bay’s 3rd WR job. Tight end is an embarrassment of riches, with Travis Kelce leading a unit that also contains T.J. Hockenson, Hayden Hurst, and Foster Moreau. On defense, the Don’t’a Hightower opt-out hurt, though there are still some quality options on that side of the ball. In addition to Brown, D.J. Reader and Jerry Tillery man the line. Depending on what Brown is able to do as a rookie, there is a large variance of outcomes here. Linebacker also presents those divergent possibilities, as Raekwon McMillian, Troy Reeder, Lorenzo Carter, and currently IR’ed Quincy Williams make up the position group. It’s one of the poorest units in the league, on paper at least, right now. In the defensive backfield, Brooks has been done no favors, with Josh Norman on IR, and only Vernon Hargreaves and Tarvarius Moore making up the unit.
X-factor: Defense and Wide receiver. The defensive projection is looking quite a bit bleaker than it was several weeks ago, though outside of the issue behind his starting wide receivers, is his only issue (Granted its an entire starting unit). While Brooks’ team is definitely geared towards the future, his offense is going to keep humming along and keeping him in games, perhaps long enough to convince him to make some plays for players on the defensive side of the ball, and get him on the other side of the projection I’m currently making for him: That he’ll just miss the playoffs.
Projected division finish: 4th
Las Vegas Raiders (Hunter)
Last year’s finish: 12th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Hunter turned the Raiders into a nearly overnight competitor last year, acquiring N’Keal Harry and top-25 IDP option, Jerome Baker, prior to the season, supplementing an already strong team. Harry, had an underwhelming first year, but is in line for some serious usage this year if he can begin to create separation from defensive backs (An oft-reported theme from Patriots’ camp), or if he can just do other things well enough to not make that matter. Baker ended up building on the promise of his rookie year (At least fantasy-wise), producing as a top-IDP option, despite plummeting down the LB rankings to being a well below replacement option, per PFF. The 2020 Raiders will return many of the options that made them contenders for not only a division crown, but also as one of the most-powerful forces in the AFC. Jimmy Garoppolo returns at QB, after his first full-year as a starter resulted in him leading the 49ers to the Super Bowl. Due some regression, based on how historically run-heavy the Niners were and appear to be geared for this year as well, he should still be a solid starting option going forward. At running back, and one of the primary beneficiaries of the run-first offense, is Tevin Coleman, backing up (Likely) a now potential handcuff piece in Kerryon Johnson, who despite his effectiveness, accused rapist, poor man’s Jack Black impersonator, and the androgynously named Matt Patricia, didn’t want to use him more (And maybe he had a point, considering Johnson’s issues with staying healthy). Originally a handcuff to him, Hunter still possess Ty Johnson, and first-year back Eno Benjamin. At wideout, Harry is one of several potential impact players, including DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, 2020 draftee Laviska Shenault, and 2019 puff piece Jakobi Meyers. In all, it’s likely one of the top-10 units in the league. At tight end, Eric Ebron is the big name, though Kaden Smith spent a large portion of 2019 as fantasy relevant due to Evan Engram’s injury fill-in, and could repeat that role in a similar circumstance. On the defensive side of the ball, Las Vegas also sports one of the strongest units in the league, bringing both Baker and Schobert to the table (Both pilfered from Cincinnati), as well as standouts Sheldon Richardson, Ed Oliver, Terrell Edmunds, Bradley McDougald, and Quandre Diggs. Outside of those names, several high-upside players may become contributors, in LBs Drue Tranquill and Alec Ogletree, as well as DL Charles Harris, and DB Khari Willis, but for right now, are too hard to project confidently.
X-factor: Health and depth. While Las Vegas is a deeper team in 2020, Johnson’s role, as well as some others on the defense (Like Ogletree) may cap the high-end returns that Hunter could expect in a given week a year ago. He still has an excellent chance of winning the division, as well as earning a high playoff seed, but there is even less margin for error in 2020, especially considering his competition.
Projected division finish: 1st
Los Angeles Chargers (Trey)
Last year’s finish: 7th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: In a division with a team already discussed above as having a split personality (KC re: Offense vs. Defense), the Chargers are the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde. Offensively, it’s hard to find many teams that would compete with LAC. Derek Carr remains at QB, and while the offseason may have made Trey uneasy there, it appears Marcus Mariota offered little actual competition for that job. Mark Ingram also is back for one (Likely final) go, despite competition for touches in Baltimore. He’s backed up by a previously irrelevant J.D. McKissic, who now likely has at least some value by way of the four-way RBBC in Washington (Though he carries the same bye as Ingram). Wide receiver is resplendent with talent, as this is a top-5 unit in that regard, featuring Tyreek Hill, Kenny Goalladay, DeVante Parker, Anthony Miller, Darius Slayton, AND two rookies in Chase Claypool, and Gabriel Davis. Tight end includes continual Dynasty hold Jonnu Smith, who may actually finally live up to his lofty projections this year, now finally out from under Delanie Walker. He’s backed up by Kahale Warring, who made the Texans’ initial roster, and could be an asset if Jordan Akins is injured. Now for the Hyde. The Chargers’ defense, long the weaker of the two units, is more stated than ever in this year. Though quality pieces still remain, this is arguably a bottom half unit, something incomprehensible to say about Trey’s team from any of the previous versions of the division champion LA team. That though, was of course, before Luke Kuechly unexpectedly retired. Benardrick McKinney is set to make a valiant effort to hold down the fort without him, but he’s the only starting inside linebacker on the entire unit right now. Henry Anderson and Arik Armstead should make for a solid 1-2 DL to help things in that direction, as should a defensive backfield with Kenny Vaccaro, Micah Hyde, Justin Reid, and Juan Thornhill. But the truth is, Elandon Roberts, Vic Beasley, Akeem Davis-Gaither, and Devante Downs, a Luke Kuechly replacement does not make. It’s going to be a weekly struggle to put up points on that side of the ball for Los Angeles, unless Trey makes some necessary acquisitions.
X-factor: Defense. Frankly, it remains to be seen how challenged LAC will be on this side of the ball, and in general. It could be simply a nuisance while the offense piles on the points and provides enough margin of victory on a weekly basis to ignore whatever shortcomings the D might have, OR, it could be an epidemic to the team, forcing it to fall as far as fourth in the division, and miss the playoffs altogether. The reality is probably somewhere in between, but also, it’s well more than enough to knock Trey from his top spot in the division.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Thank you for reading this, the eighth and final in the series of Divisional Previews—the AFC West. I will publish the Pre-Season Power Rankings momentarily.
The AFC West has been on this path for awhile: Four truly good teams, ready to battle it out for supremacy of a division that has gone Trey’s way for four years running. Steve won the division (His lone AFC West crown) in 2015, but it’s Brooks’ insertion back into the fold (Himself a three-time winner of the West from 2012-14, and league Hall of Fame member) that made this division a truly treacherous one to project. Though the Chargers’ point total bordered on elite in 2019, the division itself didn’t produce a team with better than an 8-4 record, likely because the division once again beat up on one another (Whereas three teams were between the records of 7-5 and 5-7 in 2018, the same number were between 6-6 and 8-4 in 2019, and all three of those teams went 2-1 in division), nearly completing a transitive property outcome. The division title itself broke to Trey by just a point, by nature of a head-to-head win over Oakland (Now Las Vegas—and it’s gonna take me a while to get that right). Imagine a division that close a year ago, and then imagine one that adds a HOF member who immediately began putting together what now looks to be a fringe-playoff roster, and you have the 2020 iteration of the AFC West. Can Brooks get back on the horse immediately wrangle back what was so long ago his? Will Steve finally put the necessary pieces together to make the run that his team’s talent so long promised? Can Hunter improve just enough to pass Trey this time? Or will the division championship stay with the incumbent (Trey), tying him with the all-time mark for consecutive division wins? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Denver Broncos (Steve)
Last year’s finish: 14th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: 2019 was a very positive step in the right direction for Steve, who got back into the playoffs for the first time since that 2015 division championship—and making a good showing as well, putting up a 151-spot in the First Round, which would have won two of the other AFC playoff matchups had he been in them instead. Not to take away from that accomplishment, but the real feat was getting there in the first place. Entering Week 7, Steve’s Broncos were 1-5, meaning he went on a streak of 6-straight wins before succumbing to Oakland in Week 12, to cement his place as third in the division and the #7 seed in the playoffs. Few, if any, have ever had a more profound mid-season, and that turnaround should carry over to 2020 if Steve’s in-season activity improves. In some ways, the turnaround for Steve started back in 2016, when after a Tony Romo injury, he placed a speculative $2/4y bid on an undrafted (In our league) backup named Dak Prescott. Four years later, he’s still the quarterback for this Denver offense. At running back, Steve has finally found a mix of backs that should receive plenty of opportunity this year, first with his pick of David Montgomery last year, Raheem Mostert, his FA acquisition from 2018 (Which, trust me, took a LOT of patience to hold onto considering his late season injury that year, which looked like a career-ender), and this year’s First Rounder AJ Dillon—though the final name of those three looks to have his touches delayed, due to not enough reps with no summer program, and two superior backs ahead of him on the depth chart. Steve also has change of pace player Jaylen Samuels, and Samaje Perine, who is apparently on the Bengals, on his roster. It is his next position which is his biggest problem area: Wide receiver. While Steve had a great draft in 2019—adding Diontae Johnson later in the round after trading up for Montgomery—he has looked for mostly fill-ins over the last couple of years to supplement the position. Two of those types make out the rest of his receiving corps (Randall Cobb and Josh Gordon), though Antonio Callaway, a draft pick of Steve’s, has failed to prove anything more than a constant headache for all parties involved. At tight end, Jared Cook returns in the last year of his deal, and should still be a solid option in this league. Defensively, Steve sports a construction very similar to his offense. The defensive line is a mixed bag, with standout Chris Jones currently the only viable player, with Carl Lawson and A.J. Epenesa yet to prove anything as pros. Linebacker, however, is one of the best units in the league for Steve’s Broncos. The Smiths lead a unit that also includes Anthony Barr and Nathan Gerry, two players who can be above average or better, and two pass rushers in Whitney Mercilus (Still the best name for a defender in football), and Oshane Ximines (Whom Steve was highly unlucky to have reclassified as a LB this year). In the secondary, the Broncos have the services of Jarrod Wilson, Richard Sherman, and Pierre Desir. It’s an average-ish unit that shouldn’t do much in terms of holding the defense back this year.
X-factor: Wide receiver. Steve needs to go out and make a splash here, as if he’s to be a contending team, he can’t simply rely on two receivers who are not even stars on their respective teams. He has very clearly entered his window for contention, and it would be a shame to see it all be held up by a shortage at one position, especially when he had the assets to improve himself at that position. Until he does make those improvements though, I can’t see him progressing past third in this division.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Kansas City Chiefs (Brooks)
Last year’s finish: 25th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: After five years away from the league (And yet he’s still 13th All-time in wins), Brooks returns and immediately remakes himself into a team to be reckoned with. A strong draft netted him presumptive Rookie of the Year favorite Joe Burrow, alongside of projected Rams’ lead back Cam Akers, Carolina DL Derrick Brown, and New England two-deep safety Kyle Dugger. That group pairs with a roster that Amanda had either intentionally or unintentionally, turned into a team for the future, rather than the present. At running back, Brooks has one of the deepest position groups in the league, with rookie (And apparent Jacksonville RBBC leader) James Robinson, as well as Devonta Freeman, Damien Harris, and Ryquell Armstead. While some may not get full opportunity early on (Including Armstead, and Harris, who are on Injured Reserve, and Freeman, who to date, remains unsigned), it’s likely that Brooks is able to trade from this position to supplement others later in the year. At wide receiver, the Chiefs boast a few quality options in Jamison Crowder, and DeSean Jackson, though Justin Watson could also become one if he wins Tampa Bay’s 3rd WR job. Tight end is an embarrassment of riches, with Travis Kelce leading a unit that also contains T.J. Hockenson, Hayden Hurst, and Foster Moreau. On defense, the Don’t’a Hightower opt-out hurt, though there are still some quality options on that side of the ball. In addition to Brown, D.J. Reader and Jerry Tillery man the line. Depending on what Brown is able to do as a rookie, there is a large variance of outcomes here. Linebacker also presents those divergent possibilities, as Raekwon McMillian, Troy Reeder, Lorenzo Carter, and currently IR’ed Quincy Williams make up the position group. It’s one of the poorest units in the league, on paper at least, right now. In the defensive backfield, Brooks has been done no favors, with Josh Norman on IR, and only Vernon Hargreaves and Tarvarius Moore making up the unit.
X-factor: Defense and Wide receiver. The defensive projection is looking quite a bit bleaker than it was several weeks ago, though outside of the issue behind his starting wide receivers, is his only issue (Granted its an entire starting unit). While Brooks’ team is definitely geared towards the future, his offense is going to keep humming along and keeping him in games, perhaps long enough to convince him to make some plays for players on the defensive side of the ball, and get him on the other side of the projection I’m currently making for him: That he’ll just miss the playoffs.
Projected division finish: 4th
Las Vegas Raiders (Hunter)
Last year’s finish: 12th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Hunter turned the Raiders into a nearly overnight competitor last year, acquiring N’Keal Harry and top-25 IDP option, Jerome Baker, prior to the season, supplementing an already strong team. Harry, had an underwhelming first year, but is in line for some serious usage this year if he can begin to create separation from defensive backs (An oft-reported theme from Patriots’ camp), or if he can just do other things well enough to not make that matter. Baker ended up building on the promise of his rookie year (At least fantasy-wise), producing as a top-IDP option, despite plummeting down the LB rankings to being a well below replacement option, per PFF. The 2020 Raiders will return many of the options that made them contenders for not only a division crown, but also as one of the most-powerful forces in the AFC. Jimmy Garoppolo returns at QB, after his first full-year as a starter resulted in him leading the 49ers to the Super Bowl. Due some regression, based on how historically run-heavy the Niners were and appear to be geared for this year as well, he should still be a solid starting option going forward. At running back, and one of the primary beneficiaries of the run-first offense, is Tevin Coleman, backing up (Likely) a now potential handcuff piece in Kerryon Johnson, who despite his effectiveness, accused rapist, poor man’s Jack Black impersonator, and the androgynously named Matt Patricia, didn’t want to use him more (And maybe he had a point, considering Johnson’s issues with staying healthy). Originally a handcuff to him, Hunter still possess Ty Johnson, and first-year back Eno Benjamin. At wideout, Harry is one of several potential impact players, including DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, 2020 draftee Laviska Shenault, and 2019 puff piece Jakobi Meyers. In all, it’s likely one of the top-10 units in the league. At tight end, Eric Ebron is the big name, though Kaden Smith spent a large portion of 2019 as fantasy relevant due to Evan Engram’s injury fill-in, and could repeat that role in a similar circumstance. On the defensive side of the ball, Las Vegas also sports one of the strongest units in the league, bringing both Baker and Schobert to the table (Both pilfered from Cincinnati), as well as standouts Sheldon Richardson, Ed Oliver, Terrell Edmunds, Bradley McDougald, and Quandre Diggs. Outside of those names, several high-upside players may become contributors, in LBs Drue Tranquill and Alec Ogletree, as well as DL Charles Harris, and DB Khari Willis, but for right now, are too hard to project confidently.
X-factor: Health and depth. While Las Vegas is a deeper team in 2020, Johnson’s role, as well as some others on the defense (Like Ogletree) may cap the high-end returns that Hunter could expect in a given week a year ago. He still has an excellent chance of winning the division, as well as earning a high playoff seed, but there is even less margin for error in 2020, especially considering his competition.
Projected division finish: 1st
Los Angeles Chargers (Trey)
Last year’s finish: 7th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: In a division with a team already discussed above as having a split personality (KC re: Offense vs. Defense), the Chargers are the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde. Offensively, it’s hard to find many teams that would compete with LAC. Derek Carr remains at QB, and while the offseason may have made Trey uneasy there, it appears Marcus Mariota offered little actual competition for that job. Mark Ingram also is back for one (Likely final) go, despite competition for touches in Baltimore. He’s backed up by a previously irrelevant J.D. McKissic, who now likely has at least some value by way of the four-way RBBC in Washington (Though he carries the same bye as Ingram). Wide receiver is resplendent with talent, as this is a top-5 unit in that regard, featuring Tyreek Hill, Kenny Goalladay, DeVante Parker, Anthony Miller, Darius Slayton, AND two rookies in Chase Claypool, and Gabriel Davis. Tight end includes continual Dynasty hold Jonnu Smith, who may actually finally live up to his lofty projections this year, now finally out from under Delanie Walker. He’s backed up by Kahale Warring, who made the Texans’ initial roster, and could be an asset if Jordan Akins is injured. Now for the Hyde. The Chargers’ defense, long the weaker of the two units, is more stated than ever in this year. Though quality pieces still remain, this is arguably a bottom half unit, something incomprehensible to say about Trey’s team from any of the previous versions of the division champion LA team. That though, was of course, before Luke Kuechly unexpectedly retired. Benardrick McKinney is set to make a valiant effort to hold down the fort without him, but he’s the only starting inside linebacker on the entire unit right now. Henry Anderson and Arik Armstead should make for a solid 1-2 DL to help things in that direction, as should a defensive backfield with Kenny Vaccaro, Micah Hyde, Justin Reid, and Juan Thornhill. But the truth is, Elandon Roberts, Vic Beasley, Akeem Davis-Gaither, and Devante Downs, a Luke Kuechly replacement does not make. It’s going to be a weekly struggle to put up points on that side of the ball for Los Angeles, unless Trey makes some necessary acquisitions.
X-factor: Defense. Frankly, it remains to be seen how challenged LAC will be on this side of the ball, and in general. It could be simply a nuisance while the offense piles on the points and provides enough margin of victory on a weekly basis to ignore whatever shortcomings the D might have, OR, it could be an epidemic to the team, forcing it to fall as far as fourth in the division, and miss the playoffs altogether. The reality is probably somewhere in between, but also, it’s well more than enough to knock Trey from his top spot in the division.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Thank you for reading this, the eighth and final in the series of Divisional Previews—the AFC West. I will publish the Pre-Season Power Rankings momentarily.