AFC East
Sept 6, 2020 4:57:08 GMT -5
Buffalo Bills (Salvatore) and Carolina Panthers (Justin) like this
Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Sept 6, 2020 4:57:08 GMT -5
AFC EAST
The 2019 iteration of the AFC East was one of the most mind-boggling division races in recent memory. Sal entered the year as the four-time defending division champ, tied for only one behind Garrett for most all-time. Sal, however, was rebuilding on the fly, and made a number of moves for long-term, at the expense of short-term ones. The division itself was full of teams that were middle-of-the-road (As evidenced by all-but-one being outscored by 100~ points on the season by their opponents—the Jets), though three-of-four finished .500, and the fourth team, New England, finished at 5-7. The strangest case was Miami, a perennially unlucky team under Castle, since Donny left the league back in 2015. The Dolphins entered Week 10 at 3-6, good for last place in the division. He promptly swept all three division foes and ended up claiming the crown for himself, then lost a playoff game—and promptly retired. In the end, Sal missed out on the record, and Cecil (Who won the NFC West for the now fifth time in a row), not Garrett, and not Sal, now looks to break the record for consecutive division wins. This off-season brought a lot of change for the division (And all divisions, really). Darrell took over for the departed Castle in Miami, Sal beefed up and is now a contender again, the Jets made some similarly aggressive, forward-thinking moves, and the Patriots suffered perhaps the biggest COVID opt-out so far in the league. Despite all of this, I think the division is going to be much easier to predict this year, and should producer a clear frontrunner. Will it be Sal, with his revamped offense, and unheralded, but better than expected defense? Can Darrell, with his IDP background, power the Dolphins back to their second-straight division crown? Will Chris be able to overcome the obstacles that have been put in his way (Re: Mosley, Njoku)? Or will Travis finally be able to ascend to the top of the division that he’s been laying stake to for a few years now? We shall know very soon. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Buffalo Bills (Sal)
Last year’s finish: 15th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Sal made some splashes this off-season, finally moving on from the untenable contract of Matt Ryan to trade for Matt Stafford, as well as Tarik Cohen, and Shaq Thompson, and drafting two of the most athletic players at their positions in Henry Ruggs and Kenneth Murray. Those additions, combined with the fortification that A.J. Green coming back provides, makes Sal into an immediate, legitimate contender again. Offensively, it’ll be Stafford running the show, fresh off of perhaps his best year before going down to injury. At a minimum, he should be as good as Ryan was over the last few seasons. Running back is in excellent shape, with Aaron Jones toting the ball, and Cohen running routes from behind the line of scrimmage, and perhaps lopping off a bit more work in the early weeks, with Bears’ lead back David Montgomery nursing an injury. Out wide, Green and Ruggs are likely the primary two, but quality depth exists in Sammy Watkins and Cole Beasley. Sal also has the hyphenated horde of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has now been supplanted as the Packers’ #2 pass game option, as well as JJ Arcega-Whitside, who should play Alshon Jeffrey’s role until the elder statesmen’s return, in reserve at the position. Tight end, however, is a problem area. Three players, C.J. Uzomah, Robert Tonyan, and Drew Sample will by vying for starters reps, but two of them being on the same team, as well as Tonyan having to hold off Jace Sternberger, both in offenses that figure to go WR-heavy in 2020, is troubling. None of them have real long histories of being “The guy,” and neither have they produced like one. On the defensive side of the ball, Maxx Crosby returns after coming out of nowhere. It’s easy to see why Jon Gruden felt he was a steal of the draft for the Raiders, out-producing fellow DL rookie (And 4th Overall pick) Clelin Ferrell by miles. Ifeadi Odenigbo had his first breakout season so to speak last year, netting 7 sacks, and establishing himself as a serviceable DL player in our league. Beyond those two, no other DLs exist. At linebacker, Thompson immediately vaults himself to the top of the group, and will likely be carrying Buffalo’s LB corps. Behind him are Thomas Davis, Murray, and A.J. Johnson, in some order. Health provided, it’s among the best groups in the league. Vosean Joseph, who was just released, and Kamal Martin, are likely to be non-factors for this year at least. At defensive back, Shawn Williams should be an excellent fantasy option for the umpteenth season in a row, and Jalen Thompson, newly elevated to the top role in Arizona’s defense, opposite Budda Baker, could be a factor. Adrian Phillips and Troy Apke presently are listed atop their teams’ respective depth charts, but it’s hard to predict what they might do with them, or how for how long, for different reasons.
X-factor: TE and DL. The best part about Sal’s weaknesses is that he picked the two least-impactful positions to be weak at. But in terms of points, it doesn’t necessarily matter where they come from. The hope is that the existing players prop up those positions, and that Sal doesn’t bleed points from them. If he does, it will require that much more from everybody else in his lineup. By year’s end, we’ll be able to tell if it was a smart or risky proposition.
Projected division finish: 1st
Miami Dolphins (Castle)
Last year’s finish: 10th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: After Castle’s departure, Darrell stepped in and, by the picks that he made, immediately began to focus on an area of concern for the Dolphins: Defense. His background being in IDP, Darrell immediately got to work on crafting a unit with a lot of cracks and holes, but one that is presently the reigning division champion. With four of his first five picks, Darrell selected players on the defensive side of the ball (The lone exception, TE Darren Fells). But we’ll begin on offense, where quarterback Ryan Tannehill was as much the reason for Castle’s late-season escapades (That and his passes to A.J. Brown). While Tannehill, a career below-average passer, is due some serious regression, if he can maintain anything near his proclivity to hold onto the football this year, he’s got a chance to be a solid, stabilizing force for Miami. Behind him is the man he supplanted a year ago, now Las Vegas backup Marcus Mariota. Despite some peoples’ expectations that he would win the job out from under Derek Carr, reports have him as failing to impress—but he is, ultimately, a former second overall pick, and immensely talented—when healthy. Additionally, Darrell drafted Jalen Hurts, who may be some variety of H-back/Wildcat QB until Carson Wentz’s PHI fate is decided. At running back, the stock is down on Sony Michel, as the Patriots’ RBBC only expanded this off-season, and as Michel has yet to dazzle anyone in the pros. Presently, he’s the Dolphins’ only runner. At wideout, the aforementioned Brown is the lead dog, but Kenny Stills and Willie Snead project to have roles (Or at least early season ones, in Snead’s case). Beyond those three, however, there’s nothing (Outside of an injury-riddled and now without a team Quincy Enunwa). At tight end, Darren Fells is the only relevant name, but Jeff Swaim and Jake Butt remain. Now Darrell’s specialty: the defensive side of the ball. Jurrell Casey, Da’Ron Payne, and Zach Allen make for an alright unit on their own, but it’s the off-season’s biggest edition for the Dolphins that will make all the headlines, in Chase Young. He should immediately lift the profile of this defense in the way that the Bosas and Watts have previously done for their teams in this league, as he is equally if not more unblockable. At linebacker, by comparison, there is a dearth of quality. The Za’Darius Smith trade that Castle made with CIN several years back has paid off big time, each of the last two years, and A.J. Klein has managed to string together an average-ish career, both on the field and in fantasy. But beyond those two names, it’s pretty slim pickings, with only Devon Kennard, who is currently running as a backup OLB in Arizona, and Jordan Jenkins, a pass rusher whose career-high total in sacks last year still didn’t even make him quasi-relevant in this league, in reserve. That will have to change if Miami is even to make a bid at contending for another AFC East title again. Defensive back contains several players who could Jaquiski Tartt, Janorris Jenkins, and potentially Justin Coleman, who looks to be running second string in Detroit. All-in-all, it’s a unit which has taken great strides, and still needs some serious making over in the seasons to come.
X-factor: Linebacker and Wide Receiver. Each of these positions are the respective black holes for their sides of the offense. While it’s probably too big an ask to bring these two groups up to a contention level in year-1, it’s an area of focus for future seasons.
Projected division finish: 4th
New England Patriots (Chris)
Last year’s finish: 23rd (Division: 4th)
Outlook: This year, Chris is going to try to attempt the nearly-impossible: make the playoffs with his best player on one side of the ball absent, as C.J. Mosley opted out due to COVID-19. The thing is, Mosley was gone for almost all of last year, and Chris’ Patriots almost did exactly that, missing the playoffs by a game and potentially some tiebreak scenarios. Long gone is Andy Dalton for New England, and in steps Matt Ryan, a decided upgrade over the previous few seasons, even if he’s down a few notches from his career zenith. He should be an upgrade over what was a very up-and-down Dalton over the last few seasons—especially when he was sans-A.J. Green, as he was in 2019. Behind him is Jacob Eason, potential future starter, though one with a lot to prove. He could actually get his shot in 2020 if Philip Rivers continues to throw the ball to the other team as much as he did last season. At running back, New England is well-stocked, with both of the options of a run-first backfield, Dalvin Cook, and his backup and super-sub, Alexander Mattinson. Cook is sublime, but Mattinson is one of the only reserve backs in the league who can stand on his own as a startable option, even when Cook is healthy—which, to be fair, has not been often enough, hence the decision to pick Mattinson. Behind those two, are a pair of (Now former, for one) Cincinnati backs, Trayveon Williams, who could overtake Giovani Bernard as Joe Mixon’s direct backup, and Rodney Anderson, who is almost unquantifiably talented, yet always injured. Presently, he’s in street clothes, maybe from now on. Wide receiver boasts a range of talented receivers, and is in much better position than a year ago—even though Kelvin Harmon, an impact rookie for the Washington racist names in 2019—tore his ACL and will miss the season. DK Metcalf, the Patriots’ top pick in last year’s Rookie Draft, paid big dividends in year-1, despite not being able to run fast from side-to-side, and is expected to pick up right where he left off. Demarcus Robinson also had a breakout year in 2019, finally becoming relevant in a supercharged Chiefs’ offense, as one of the receivers who popularized high-fiving another Kansas City receiver as the two blazed a path to the endzone, leaving defenders in their wake. Unfortunately, there ends the relevant receivers in 2020, short of an injury making Arizona’s fifth or sixth WR, KeeSean Johnson, fantasy-relevant. Tight end is one of the better units around the league, as Jack Doyle will start for the Pats, and David Njoku, now in a TE-friendlier offense, will finally attempt to prove that he’s not in fact a draft bust, heading into his free agency season. Defensive line is one of the best units in the league, for NE, even if the disappointing news of Jadeveon Clowney being recast as an outside linebacker instead of a DL in Tennessee is true (As of the writing of this, Clowney is busy making a horse’s ass of himself, telling reporters that what they have all reported, and seems to be the case re: his signing with TEN, is not true), though Clowney is one of the few DLs who can hold his own at LB fantasy-wise, even if his sack production has been a disappointment. Cameron Jordan, and Jarran Reed, who is returning from a suspension and injury-laden season, should be back to his 2018 rookie form. B.J. Hill also is a solid backup through his first two years in the league. At linebacker, Mosley’s absence leaves an unfillable hole (At least by anyone on this roster) right in the heart of the defense. Without him, Shaquil Barrett, who had both a monster and out-of-nowhere season, is the only one at that position on the roster. Assuming Clowney gets his position changed, Chris will just be meeting the minimum. Hopefully, he’s able to trade for a number of impact players at the position, as by numbers and profile, this is one of the worst LB units in the league. At defensive back, New England sports three corners who exceed the average production at their position, two of whom, in Kyle Fuller and Tre Flowers, outscore most starting safeties. They are a strength at the back end of this defense, though some more depth may be necessary.
X-factor: Linebacker, linebacker, and more linebacker…and also wide receiver. It’s really interesting to see a team with this roster construction. Everything is there in the starting offense to compete, and do so now, but the bench depth, particularly at wide receiver, isn’t. Defensively, it’s clear now how much of a linchpin Mosley was for this team, and it’s easy to see why it fell apart without him in 2019. If Chris is able to remedy those two huge problem areas, he’ll be turning a “missing the playoffs by one game” campaign to a “made it easily, and potentially into the Second Round” affair. If not, he’s headed straight for the bottom of this division again.
Projected division finish: 3rd
New York Jets (Travis)
Last year’s finish: 18th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: 2019 was a puzzling year for the Jets, as by any measure (Except division record), they were the AFC East’s best team. While everyone in the division beat up on one another, it was nobody who felt the brunt of that more than New York, who ended up missing the playoffs despite an identical 6-6 record as the division’s two other playoff entrants (Miami, and Buffalo, both owning head-to-heads over NYJ). 2020 might be the Jets’ scorched Earth season, as many of the players on his roster are in better position to contribute in fantasy this year, none more so than his running back, Kenyan Drake. Starting at the top, however, NYJ went all in for Drew Brees in Week 3 of last year, but saw him miss much of our regular season due to injury. Now back at the age of 41, and on the most-expensive contract in league history ($14/1y), the time is now for NYJ to put what has to be Brees’ last season (At least on this team), to good use. Behind him is the uber-talented rookie, Tua Tagovailoa, who will likely make year-1 starts—meaning, if so, some sad sap is going to have to absorb that contract into their cap mid-season. At running back, Drake is primed for a breakout, after having one down the stretch last year, once being traded to the Arizona Cardinals (After being mothballed for years in Miami). Behind him is Chris Thompson, one of the game’s very best third-down/passing backs, but he has been one of the most routinely injured players in all of football, going all the way back to his days at Florida State. If New York gets three fully healthy games from him, he’ll exceed what Cincinnati received either of the past two years. Mike Boone, the Vikings’ third running back, who could—and has—seen some time if each of the top-two guys gets injured. Adam Thielen leads a top-heavy WR group, which also includes second-year breakout candidate Allen Lazard, and no other fantasy-relevant receiver in 2020. That’s a yikes, folks. While Zach Pascal played the role of acceptable performer last year, he’s been taken down a peg—or two or three, depending on how you view Trey Burton’s inclusion into the offense—in the Colts’ receiving order. Beyond that, there is only Gary Jennings, who was just cut by the Dolphins, after failing to make their roster, and Donovan Peoples-Jones, one of Jim Harbaugh’s favorite players at Michigan, and one of the most lackluster performers on paper in this year’s draft class. At tight end, it’s exactly the opposite, with Zach Ertz, one of the best TEs in the game, and Vance McDonald, in the fold. On the other side of the ball, it’s a strong unit, with one glaring hole—linebacker. Aaron Donald is perhaps the best player on the defense, and any DL unit that he leads will, by his presence alone, be among the best. The additions of Davon Godchaux, and Mo Hurst, remove any doubt. At linebacker, Jamie Collins is far-and-away the best player, but no one else has any kind of meaningful role as of now, in 2020. Josey Jewell graded out well in 2018 as a rookie, but was benched early in the 2019 season. The same was true of third year pro Kyzir White. Both of those two are second string options to start the season, and Jacob Martin and James Burgess, who was just released by the real life Jets, are completely off the fantasy radar. Just like the Patriots, this is one of the worst units in the league at the position, and it can and very much may sink them without significant investment. Defensive back, however, should carry its share of the load, with Anthony Harris, a legitimate star in the making, and two decent or better corners in Levi Wallace, and Adoree’ Jackson (Despite his down 2019 season) behind him. T.J. Carrie has also been fantasy relevant for years, but showed serious signs of slowing down last year, and is on the wrong side of 30.
X-factor: Linebacker and Wide Receiver. Just like the Patriots, the Jets have two fatal flaws. It’s not unthinkable to say that whoever best addresses their issues at those positions, wins the race to the finish line for 2nd, or even 1st place in the division. Short of that, and the two of them will be fighting it out in the Loser’s Bracket in a hyper-competitive AFC in 2020.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Thank you for reading this, the fifth in the series of Divisional Previews. I will publish the sixth installment tomorrow. Next up, it's the NFC South.
The 2019 iteration of the AFC East was one of the most mind-boggling division races in recent memory. Sal entered the year as the four-time defending division champ, tied for only one behind Garrett for most all-time. Sal, however, was rebuilding on the fly, and made a number of moves for long-term, at the expense of short-term ones. The division itself was full of teams that were middle-of-the-road (As evidenced by all-but-one being outscored by 100~ points on the season by their opponents—the Jets), though three-of-four finished .500, and the fourth team, New England, finished at 5-7. The strangest case was Miami, a perennially unlucky team under Castle, since Donny left the league back in 2015. The Dolphins entered Week 10 at 3-6, good for last place in the division. He promptly swept all three division foes and ended up claiming the crown for himself, then lost a playoff game—and promptly retired. In the end, Sal missed out on the record, and Cecil (Who won the NFC West for the now fifth time in a row), not Garrett, and not Sal, now looks to break the record for consecutive division wins. This off-season brought a lot of change for the division (And all divisions, really). Darrell took over for the departed Castle in Miami, Sal beefed up and is now a contender again, the Jets made some similarly aggressive, forward-thinking moves, and the Patriots suffered perhaps the biggest COVID opt-out so far in the league. Despite all of this, I think the division is going to be much easier to predict this year, and should producer a clear frontrunner. Will it be Sal, with his revamped offense, and unheralded, but better than expected defense? Can Darrell, with his IDP background, power the Dolphins back to their second-straight division crown? Will Chris be able to overcome the obstacles that have been put in his way (Re: Mosley, Njoku)? Or will Travis finally be able to ascend to the top of the division that he’s been laying stake to for a few years now? We shall know very soon. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Buffalo Bills (Sal)
Last year’s finish: 15th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Sal made some splashes this off-season, finally moving on from the untenable contract of Matt Ryan to trade for Matt Stafford, as well as Tarik Cohen, and Shaq Thompson, and drafting two of the most athletic players at their positions in Henry Ruggs and Kenneth Murray. Those additions, combined with the fortification that A.J. Green coming back provides, makes Sal into an immediate, legitimate contender again. Offensively, it’ll be Stafford running the show, fresh off of perhaps his best year before going down to injury. At a minimum, he should be as good as Ryan was over the last few seasons. Running back is in excellent shape, with Aaron Jones toting the ball, and Cohen running routes from behind the line of scrimmage, and perhaps lopping off a bit more work in the early weeks, with Bears’ lead back David Montgomery nursing an injury. Out wide, Green and Ruggs are likely the primary two, but quality depth exists in Sammy Watkins and Cole Beasley. Sal also has the hyphenated horde of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has now been supplanted as the Packers’ #2 pass game option, as well as JJ Arcega-Whitside, who should play Alshon Jeffrey’s role until the elder statesmen’s return, in reserve at the position. Tight end, however, is a problem area. Three players, C.J. Uzomah, Robert Tonyan, and Drew Sample will by vying for starters reps, but two of them being on the same team, as well as Tonyan having to hold off Jace Sternberger, both in offenses that figure to go WR-heavy in 2020, is troubling. None of them have real long histories of being “The guy,” and neither have they produced like one. On the defensive side of the ball, Maxx Crosby returns after coming out of nowhere. It’s easy to see why Jon Gruden felt he was a steal of the draft for the Raiders, out-producing fellow DL rookie (And 4th Overall pick) Clelin Ferrell by miles. Ifeadi Odenigbo had his first breakout season so to speak last year, netting 7 sacks, and establishing himself as a serviceable DL player in our league. Beyond those two, no other DLs exist. At linebacker, Thompson immediately vaults himself to the top of the group, and will likely be carrying Buffalo’s LB corps. Behind him are Thomas Davis, Murray, and A.J. Johnson, in some order. Health provided, it’s among the best groups in the league. Vosean Joseph, who was just released, and Kamal Martin, are likely to be non-factors for this year at least. At defensive back, Shawn Williams should be an excellent fantasy option for the umpteenth season in a row, and Jalen Thompson, newly elevated to the top role in Arizona’s defense, opposite Budda Baker, could be a factor. Adrian Phillips and Troy Apke presently are listed atop their teams’ respective depth charts, but it’s hard to predict what they might do with them, or how for how long, for different reasons.
X-factor: TE and DL. The best part about Sal’s weaknesses is that he picked the two least-impactful positions to be weak at. But in terms of points, it doesn’t necessarily matter where they come from. The hope is that the existing players prop up those positions, and that Sal doesn’t bleed points from them. If he does, it will require that much more from everybody else in his lineup. By year’s end, we’ll be able to tell if it was a smart or risky proposition.
Projected division finish: 1st
Miami Dolphins (Castle)
Last year’s finish: 10th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: After Castle’s departure, Darrell stepped in and, by the picks that he made, immediately began to focus on an area of concern for the Dolphins: Defense. His background being in IDP, Darrell immediately got to work on crafting a unit with a lot of cracks and holes, but one that is presently the reigning division champion. With four of his first five picks, Darrell selected players on the defensive side of the ball (The lone exception, TE Darren Fells). But we’ll begin on offense, where quarterback Ryan Tannehill was as much the reason for Castle’s late-season escapades (That and his passes to A.J. Brown). While Tannehill, a career below-average passer, is due some serious regression, if he can maintain anything near his proclivity to hold onto the football this year, he’s got a chance to be a solid, stabilizing force for Miami. Behind him is the man he supplanted a year ago, now Las Vegas backup Marcus Mariota. Despite some peoples’ expectations that he would win the job out from under Derek Carr, reports have him as failing to impress—but he is, ultimately, a former second overall pick, and immensely talented—when healthy. Additionally, Darrell drafted Jalen Hurts, who may be some variety of H-back/Wildcat QB until Carson Wentz’s PHI fate is decided. At running back, the stock is down on Sony Michel, as the Patriots’ RBBC only expanded this off-season, and as Michel has yet to dazzle anyone in the pros. Presently, he’s the Dolphins’ only runner. At wideout, the aforementioned Brown is the lead dog, but Kenny Stills and Willie Snead project to have roles (Or at least early season ones, in Snead’s case). Beyond those three, however, there’s nothing (Outside of an injury-riddled and now without a team Quincy Enunwa). At tight end, Darren Fells is the only relevant name, but Jeff Swaim and Jake Butt remain. Now Darrell’s specialty: the defensive side of the ball. Jurrell Casey, Da’Ron Payne, and Zach Allen make for an alright unit on their own, but it’s the off-season’s biggest edition for the Dolphins that will make all the headlines, in Chase Young. He should immediately lift the profile of this defense in the way that the Bosas and Watts have previously done for their teams in this league, as he is equally if not more unblockable. At linebacker, by comparison, there is a dearth of quality. The Za’Darius Smith trade that Castle made with CIN several years back has paid off big time, each of the last two years, and A.J. Klein has managed to string together an average-ish career, both on the field and in fantasy. But beyond those two names, it’s pretty slim pickings, with only Devon Kennard, who is currently running as a backup OLB in Arizona, and Jordan Jenkins, a pass rusher whose career-high total in sacks last year still didn’t even make him quasi-relevant in this league, in reserve. That will have to change if Miami is even to make a bid at contending for another AFC East title again. Defensive back contains several players who could Jaquiski Tartt, Janorris Jenkins, and potentially Justin Coleman, who looks to be running second string in Detroit. All-in-all, it’s a unit which has taken great strides, and still needs some serious making over in the seasons to come.
X-factor: Linebacker and Wide Receiver. Each of these positions are the respective black holes for their sides of the offense. While it’s probably too big an ask to bring these two groups up to a contention level in year-1, it’s an area of focus for future seasons.
Projected division finish: 4th
New England Patriots (Chris)
Last year’s finish: 23rd (Division: 4th)
Outlook: This year, Chris is going to try to attempt the nearly-impossible: make the playoffs with his best player on one side of the ball absent, as C.J. Mosley opted out due to COVID-19. The thing is, Mosley was gone for almost all of last year, and Chris’ Patriots almost did exactly that, missing the playoffs by a game and potentially some tiebreak scenarios. Long gone is Andy Dalton for New England, and in steps Matt Ryan, a decided upgrade over the previous few seasons, even if he’s down a few notches from his career zenith. He should be an upgrade over what was a very up-and-down Dalton over the last few seasons—especially when he was sans-A.J. Green, as he was in 2019. Behind him is Jacob Eason, potential future starter, though one with a lot to prove. He could actually get his shot in 2020 if Philip Rivers continues to throw the ball to the other team as much as he did last season. At running back, New England is well-stocked, with both of the options of a run-first backfield, Dalvin Cook, and his backup and super-sub, Alexander Mattinson. Cook is sublime, but Mattinson is one of the only reserve backs in the league who can stand on his own as a startable option, even when Cook is healthy—which, to be fair, has not been often enough, hence the decision to pick Mattinson. Behind those two, are a pair of (Now former, for one) Cincinnati backs, Trayveon Williams, who could overtake Giovani Bernard as Joe Mixon’s direct backup, and Rodney Anderson, who is almost unquantifiably talented, yet always injured. Presently, he’s in street clothes, maybe from now on. Wide receiver boasts a range of talented receivers, and is in much better position than a year ago—even though Kelvin Harmon, an impact rookie for the Washington racist names in 2019—tore his ACL and will miss the season. DK Metcalf, the Patriots’ top pick in last year’s Rookie Draft, paid big dividends in year-1, despite not being able to run fast from side-to-side, and is expected to pick up right where he left off. Demarcus Robinson also had a breakout year in 2019, finally becoming relevant in a supercharged Chiefs’ offense, as one of the receivers who popularized high-fiving another Kansas City receiver as the two blazed a path to the endzone, leaving defenders in their wake. Unfortunately, there ends the relevant receivers in 2020, short of an injury making Arizona’s fifth or sixth WR, KeeSean Johnson, fantasy-relevant. Tight end is one of the better units around the league, as Jack Doyle will start for the Pats, and David Njoku, now in a TE-friendlier offense, will finally attempt to prove that he’s not in fact a draft bust, heading into his free agency season. Defensive line is one of the best units in the league, for NE, even if the disappointing news of Jadeveon Clowney being recast as an outside linebacker instead of a DL in Tennessee is true (As of the writing of this, Clowney is busy making a horse’s ass of himself, telling reporters that what they have all reported, and seems to be the case re: his signing with TEN, is not true), though Clowney is one of the few DLs who can hold his own at LB fantasy-wise, even if his sack production has been a disappointment. Cameron Jordan, and Jarran Reed, who is returning from a suspension and injury-laden season, should be back to his 2018 rookie form. B.J. Hill also is a solid backup through his first two years in the league. At linebacker, Mosley’s absence leaves an unfillable hole (At least by anyone on this roster) right in the heart of the defense. Without him, Shaquil Barrett, who had both a monster and out-of-nowhere season, is the only one at that position on the roster. Assuming Clowney gets his position changed, Chris will just be meeting the minimum. Hopefully, he’s able to trade for a number of impact players at the position, as by numbers and profile, this is one of the worst LB units in the league. At defensive back, New England sports three corners who exceed the average production at their position, two of whom, in Kyle Fuller and Tre Flowers, outscore most starting safeties. They are a strength at the back end of this defense, though some more depth may be necessary.
X-factor: Linebacker, linebacker, and more linebacker…and also wide receiver. It’s really interesting to see a team with this roster construction. Everything is there in the starting offense to compete, and do so now, but the bench depth, particularly at wide receiver, isn’t. Defensively, it’s clear now how much of a linchpin Mosley was for this team, and it’s easy to see why it fell apart without him in 2019. If Chris is able to remedy those two huge problem areas, he’ll be turning a “missing the playoffs by one game” campaign to a “made it easily, and potentially into the Second Round” affair. If not, he’s headed straight for the bottom of this division again.
Projected division finish: 3rd
New York Jets (Travis)
Last year’s finish: 18th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: 2019 was a puzzling year for the Jets, as by any measure (Except division record), they were the AFC East’s best team. While everyone in the division beat up on one another, it was nobody who felt the brunt of that more than New York, who ended up missing the playoffs despite an identical 6-6 record as the division’s two other playoff entrants (Miami, and Buffalo, both owning head-to-heads over NYJ). 2020 might be the Jets’ scorched Earth season, as many of the players on his roster are in better position to contribute in fantasy this year, none more so than his running back, Kenyan Drake. Starting at the top, however, NYJ went all in for Drew Brees in Week 3 of last year, but saw him miss much of our regular season due to injury. Now back at the age of 41, and on the most-expensive contract in league history ($14/1y), the time is now for NYJ to put what has to be Brees’ last season (At least on this team), to good use. Behind him is the uber-talented rookie, Tua Tagovailoa, who will likely make year-1 starts—meaning, if so, some sad sap is going to have to absorb that contract into their cap mid-season. At running back, Drake is primed for a breakout, after having one down the stretch last year, once being traded to the Arizona Cardinals (After being mothballed for years in Miami). Behind him is Chris Thompson, one of the game’s very best third-down/passing backs, but he has been one of the most routinely injured players in all of football, going all the way back to his days at Florida State. If New York gets three fully healthy games from him, he’ll exceed what Cincinnati received either of the past two years. Mike Boone, the Vikings’ third running back, who could—and has—seen some time if each of the top-two guys gets injured. Adam Thielen leads a top-heavy WR group, which also includes second-year breakout candidate Allen Lazard, and no other fantasy-relevant receiver in 2020. That’s a yikes, folks. While Zach Pascal played the role of acceptable performer last year, he’s been taken down a peg—or two or three, depending on how you view Trey Burton’s inclusion into the offense—in the Colts’ receiving order. Beyond that, there is only Gary Jennings, who was just cut by the Dolphins, after failing to make their roster, and Donovan Peoples-Jones, one of Jim Harbaugh’s favorite players at Michigan, and one of the most lackluster performers on paper in this year’s draft class. At tight end, it’s exactly the opposite, with Zach Ertz, one of the best TEs in the game, and Vance McDonald, in the fold. On the other side of the ball, it’s a strong unit, with one glaring hole—linebacker. Aaron Donald is perhaps the best player on the defense, and any DL unit that he leads will, by his presence alone, be among the best. The additions of Davon Godchaux, and Mo Hurst, remove any doubt. At linebacker, Jamie Collins is far-and-away the best player, but no one else has any kind of meaningful role as of now, in 2020. Josey Jewell graded out well in 2018 as a rookie, but was benched early in the 2019 season. The same was true of third year pro Kyzir White. Both of those two are second string options to start the season, and Jacob Martin and James Burgess, who was just released by the real life Jets, are completely off the fantasy radar. Just like the Patriots, this is one of the worst units in the league at the position, and it can and very much may sink them without significant investment. Defensive back, however, should carry its share of the load, with Anthony Harris, a legitimate star in the making, and two decent or better corners in Levi Wallace, and Adoree’ Jackson (Despite his down 2019 season) behind him. T.J. Carrie has also been fantasy relevant for years, but showed serious signs of slowing down last year, and is on the wrong side of 30.
X-factor: Linebacker and Wide Receiver. Just like the Patriots, the Jets have two fatal flaws. It’s not unthinkable to say that whoever best addresses their issues at those positions, wins the race to the finish line for 2nd, or even 1st place in the division. Short of that, and the two of them will be fighting it out in the Loser’s Bracket in a hyper-competitive AFC in 2020.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Thank you for reading this, the fifth in the series of Divisional Previews. I will publish the sixth installment tomorrow. Next up, it's the NFC South.