Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Aug 31, 2020 4:18:44 GMT -5
AFC SOUTH
Next up on the list, we look at the AFC South, a division that produced a 10-win team, and a Super Bowl runner-up, separately—again, for the second-consecutive season. While Jordan returned his Jaguars to top of the division, his playoff foibles continue (Very much not the fault of his own). But that, folks, was 2019, not the 2020 hellscape that we currently live in. If I’ve learned one thing from this year, it’s that anything can happen. Despite outwardly positing that he’s going to rebuild, he made the same promises last year, and for the third-straight year, reached at least the conference championship phase, and for the second-straight year, the Super Bowl. Is four-in-a-row too much to ask? J.R. has been building this thing for years. Is a pandemic entangled season enough to get over the hump, and finally into the playoffs? And can Erik, who has begun to cash in some of those assets I mentioned last year (While also accumulating further assets), begin to turn promise into ink on paper, and make a go of it in the AFC South? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Houston Texans (Ryan)
Last year’s finish: 2nd (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: 2019 continued to bring unprecedented playoff success for a team that, despite good-but-not-great regular season success, has been as consistent a postseason bet as any we’ve ever seen. Despite articulating his intentions to rebuild last year, Ryan never shed many of the players integral to his team’s success, as he had intimated, and managed to win 9 regular season contests. While he fell one game short of Jacksonville for the division crown, he ultimately got his revenge over Jordan for the third-straight year in the playoffs, also punching his ticket to the AFC Championship for the third-strait year, and beat Chris (CIN) for there for the second-consecutive year as well, lining up a repeat Super Bowl between he and Andrew (PHI)—which also resulted in a repeat loss. That said, for all the bad juju this will probably create for my predictions, it’s unlikely that Houston will make it back to those heights in a fourth-straight year. The reason? Well, probably none more important than the loss of the GOAT. That’s right, Tom Brady, whom Houston depended on to make the aforementioned history, is now on another team (Just like his real life counterpart). In his stead, the Texans do not presently posses a projected starting quarterback, with only Jared Stidham, Brian Hoyer, and Josh Rosen as members of that position group currently on his roster. He will, however, return Nick Chubb, who through two seasons in the NFL, has established himself as one of the premier backfield threats in the league. Additionally, Houston possesses Jerick McKinnon, who figures to be some part of San Francisco’s million-man backfield. At wideout, beyond 2019 playoff addition Breshad Perrmian, are 2020 rookies Jerry Jeudy, Denzel Mims, and 2017 draft bust Zay Jones. Tight end, while not filled with any spectacular names for 2020, possesses numerous satisfactory options in Jimmy Graham, Cameron Brate, and rookies Brycen Hopkins and Josiah Deguara. Defense, however, is a different story. Still reeling from the decision of Telvin Smith to step away from the game, only three players on Houston’s entire defense project to be average or better, in Eric Kendricks, James Bradberry, and Jonathan Allen. Beyond that, the Texans have potential contributors Von Bell, Cody Barton, Dexter Lawrence, Yetur Gross-Matos, and Dakota Allen, but it’s very clearly his biggest non-QB weakness.
X-factor: Quarterback and Defense. Without a quarterback, and without much of a defense, this is the worst iteration of the Texans that we have seen since Ryan entered the league. That said, he’s still better than some of the teams at the bottom of the division, meaning that, as of now, it’s hard to envision him falling far in the division.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Indianapolis Colts (J.R.)
Last year’s finish: 27th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: In 2019, the Colts replicated their 2018 performance, with a 4-8 finish on the season. For the first time since drafting him in 2015, J.R.’s Colts will not feature Jameis Winston at quarterback. His replacement, acquired just the other day (A day after this was written, and has just been updated) is Cam Newton, who if healthy, could push Indy over the top by his inclusion alone. At running back, Indianapolis returns one of the best tandems in the league, in Joe Mixon, and Adrian Peterson. While Peterson’s reign in Washington (And his tenure in the league) may not be long, he should still present a solid option. Wide receiver is a position with a lot of potential for the Colts, but not much in the way of verified past production. J.R. has spent mightily of late, using first round picks in 2019 on Parris Campbell, Miles Boykin, and this year, Justin Jefferson. He has also added Joe Reed, who may work his way into some time in the presently banged up Los Angeles Chargers WR corps. Jefferson probably has the highest upside of any, but has been slow to take to the Minnesota offense so far, per reports, and his chances to earn a significant early season role may be fading. At tight end, the Colts lost presumed top-option Josh Oliver to a season-ending injury for the second year in a row, leaving Detroit backup Jesse James, and New England rookie Devin Asiasi, who is currently injured, and must fend off a challenge from top SPARQ score athlete, and fellow rookie, Dalton Keene, but is on track to start. Defensively, there are a few nice pieces, none more so than Nick Vigil, who figures to man the middle for the real life Chargers this year. Beyond him, there are defensive lineman DeForest Buckner, outside linebacker Bud Dupree, and cornerback Denzel Ward. Presently, however, no other player projects to be above league average on this side of the ball—though Christian Jones, Uchenna Nwosu, and Kenny Moore could have opportunity to do so (Moore is presently hurt). Added to Moore on the injured (Or not participating due to a variance of reasons) are B.J. Goodson, Greedy Williams, and DeAndre Baker. Ultimately, it’s about as average a defense as is possible, at least as of today.
X-factor: Defense. Now with a high-upside quarterback (Provided that he's healthy), J.R. has improved his team the most on paper more than any offseason in recent memory. He still needs to string together a few more moves to capitalize on the potential of this roster. If the receivers rise to prominence earlier than expected, perhaps it can make up for the high-end deficiencies of the defense. Or, if several of the below average contributors on the defensive side make themselves into above average ones, J.R. may be able to sneak into his first playoff game, allowing Indianapolis to break the dubious streak of never reaching the postseason (As they’re the only team who has still yet to make the postseason since the league began).
Projected division finish: 2nd
Jacksonville Jaguars (Jordan)
Last year’s finish: 6th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Jordan reclaimed the division championship a year ago, but was once again vanquished in the playoffs by division foe, Houston, in the second round. The bulk of those two teams are still present, though there are some causes for concern on both sides of the ball after recent developments. Quarterback, however, is not one of those positions, as Jordan will roll with Russ for the third-straight year. Tyrod Taylor is also present, for now (Though Jordan will likely move Tyrod as opposed to Russ before next week’s QB Rule deadline). At running back, he sports one of the deeper depth charts, with David Johnson, who presumably is stepping into lead back duties after his trade to Houston, James Conner, who looks to put a dismal, injury-plagued 2019 behind him, after a breakout year in 2018, and when he’s ready to resume play, former long-time Texans’ starter, Lamar Miller. The loss of Derrius Guice--presumably for good--is sizeable, but, again, it’s a scenario where Jacksonville is still firmly among the haves vs. the have-nots at the position. At wide receiver, it’s a strong corps of Tyler Boyd, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams, and rookie Brandon Aiyuk (Once he is recovered from a hamstring injury). That group is a pretty solid foursome. At tight end, it’s Austin Hooper, who after a breakout year, signed with Cleveland. I don’t know whether there’s more competition for targets, but I do know that new coach Kevin Stefanski plans to use tight ends more often. Behind him are Dan Arnold and Logan Thomas, two under-the-radar signings that could earn the top spots on their offense’s respective depth chart at the position. Defensively, the Jaguars also sport one of the top units in the league on paper, with several impact players. Each year, Jacksonville is one of the best at scrapping together value on the defensive side, while reserving most of his major investment to be on the offensive side of the ball. On the defensive line, Matt Ioannidis is presently the Jags’ only option, though he broke out as a superb option in 2019. At linebacker, there is a solid core of players, who can exceed their projections. Christian Kirksey is the obvious star, though he comes with a parade of injury baggage that has kept him off the field much of the last two years. Jayon Brown should also be a quality starting piece for Jordan, as may Jon Bostic, Foye Olokun, and Travin Howard. Rookie additions Tanner Muse and Davion Taylor may see early time for their respective teams, who each have holes at the LB position. At defensive back, the Jaguars once again register as one of the best, with Landon Collins, Justin Johnson, and Chuck Clark. Deon Bush, who may win the battle for the Bears’ open DB spot, and Xavier McKinney, a rookie pick out of Alabama, may contribute, especially if McKinney gets healthy down the stretch, after suffering a training camp injury.
X-factor: Defense and Health. For a third year in a row, I believe it most prudent to repeat my X-factor from each of the past two years. It’s a maximum value defense, at present, where cheap acquisitions may lead to significant contributions. The problem is, the meat of this defense doesn’t stack up to some of the other top teams in the league. Also a refrain from last year, “This offense is just too good, with too many options, not to hit on enough big games from said options, and to drop 70 or more on a team every week. If Jordan manages to meet or even exceed my proclamation, he’s going to do very well for himself this year.” I think that still does the job for this year as well, health provided.
Projected division finish: 1st
Tennessee Titans (Erik)
Last year’s finish: 26th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Erik entered 2019 on the second year of a rebuild, taking over a franchise that had long been neglected of anything approaching a long-term outlook. While it was hardly a banner year, a 4-8 record represented some real progress, and further proof was delivered when he not only managed to stock up on future assets for the 2021 draft (At current, giving him four 1st Round picks, but eight picks in total), but also in 2020 rookie selections D’Andre Swift, and Albert O (Not even gonna try). Added to a core that is building itself into a solid long-term group (Daniel Jones, Terry McLaurin, Mecole Hardman, and now Swift), Tennessee’s dynasty arrow is pointed straight up. Offense is where the majority of Tennessee’s draft investment has come, with the trade for Jones last year, he secured a starter who lit up fantasy scoreboards—but also turned the ball over at an alarming rate. A true gunslinger, it’ll be interesting to see if Jones is able to reign in the mistakes, or if he becomes the second-coming of Jameis Winston. At running back, Swift immediately becomes the Titans’ top option, though assuming he wins his camp battle as the Chargers’ backup, Justin Jackson is quite a useful piece himself. At wideout, both of the Titans’ 2019 WR picks were absolute home runs, with Terry McLaurin tearing it up (While in a bad offense, no less), and on the flip side of the coin, Mecole Hardman showing game-breaking speed in all phases of the game (Read: offense, kickoff return, and punt return). Despite some thinking about scaling back his responsibilities to offense-only, the greater wisdom seems to have prevailed, and per reports, Hardman will retain all three roles, maximizing his fantasy value in this league. Paul Richardson, perhaps an afterthought until just now, recently signed with the Seahawks, and could carve out a role in 3-wide sets. That makes him a potentially useful piece. At tight end, Erik is taking a gamble, with Tyler Eifert (And his uniquely-long injury history) manning the spot, and with only one rostered player behind him (The aforementioned Albert O), he’s betting on his health, as were the Jaguars when they signed him, after a far less dynamic version of Eifert was able to stay healthy in 2019. Defensively, there are some positives from this unit, namely K.J. Wright, and Danny Trevathan, assuming they are back to health (Wright’s injury was more of a 2018 concern) and that their roles will remain the same, Harrison Smith, whose game took a noticeable slip last year in every category except for fantasy, and Stephon Tuitt. Outside of those three are Jason Pierre-Paul, who was unable to get to the QB as often in 2019 as he had previously, but was still excellent at registering pressures (Something that we don’t score), Blake Cashman, and Alex Anzalone. Overall, there are definitely some missing pieces—particularly at defensive line, and a secondary defensive back, but overall, the defense is a decent one. I suspect that Erik may try to remedy this side of the ball with some of those 2021 picks—though I also suppose he could try to add now, especially if he gets off to a hot start.
X-factor: Defense and depth. Tennessee took a huge step last year, but there are still more to take, particularly in the depth and defensive categories. While the starting unit could rival most teams in the league, bye weeks and injuries could wreak havoc on any plans of contention the Titans may have, for what otherwise has the look of a fringe-playoff team. Erik may have to make a decision early on about any chance of competing this year, as well as buttressing that up against his future.
Projected division finish: 4th
Remember to watch out for the fourth of our divisional previews, this time the AFC North, which should drop in the next few days. Thanks again guys.
This post was edited, as J.R. traded for Cam Newton later on the day after this post was made. The new division order has been reflected in the predictions.*
Next up on the list, we look at the AFC South, a division that produced a 10-win team, and a Super Bowl runner-up, separately—again, for the second-consecutive season. While Jordan returned his Jaguars to top of the division, his playoff foibles continue (Very much not the fault of his own). But that, folks, was 2019, not the 2020 hellscape that we currently live in. If I’ve learned one thing from this year, it’s that anything can happen. Despite outwardly positing that he’s going to rebuild, he made the same promises last year, and for the third-straight year, reached at least the conference championship phase, and for the second-straight year, the Super Bowl. Is four-in-a-row too much to ask? J.R. has been building this thing for years. Is a pandemic entangled season enough to get over the hump, and finally into the playoffs? And can Erik, who has begun to cash in some of those assets I mentioned last year (While also accumulating further assets), begin to turn promise into ink on paper, and make a go of it in the AFC South? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Houston Texans (Ryan)
Last year’s finish: 2nd (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: 2019 continued to bring unprecedented playoff success for a team that, despite good-but-not-great regular season success, has been as consistent a postseason bet as any we’ve ever seen. Despite articulating his intentions to rebuild last year, Ryan never shed many of the players integral to his team’s success, as he had intimated, and managed to win 9 regular season contests. While he fell one game short of Jacksonville for the division crown, he ultimately got his revenge over Jordan for the third-straight year in the playoffs, also punching his ticket to the AFC Championship for the third-strait year, and beat Chris (CIN) for there for the second-consecutive year as well, lining up a repeat Super Bowl between he and Andrew (PHI)—which also resulted in a repeat loss. That said, for all the bad juju this will probably create for my predictions, it’s unlikely that Houston will make it back to those heights in a fourth-straight year. The reason? Well, probably none more important than the loss of the GOAT. That’s right, Tom Brady, whom Houston depended on to make the aforementioned history, is now on another team (Just like his real life counterpart). In his stead, the Texans do not presently posses a projected starting quarterback, with only Jared Stidham, Brian Hoyer, and Josh Rosen as members of that position group currently on his roster. He will, however, return Nick Chubb, who through two seasons in the NFL, has established himself as one of the premier backfield threats in the league. Additionally, Houston possesses Jerick McKinnon, who figures to be some part of San Francisco’s million-man backfield. At wideout, beyond 2019 playoff addition Breshad Perrmian, are 2020 rookies Jerry Jeudy, Denzel Mims, and 2017 draft bust Zay Jones. Tight end, while not filled with any spectacular names for 2020, possesses numerous satisfactory options in Jimmy Graham, Cameron Brate, and rookies Brycen Hopkins and Josiah Deguara. Defense, however, is a different story. Still reeling from the decision of Telvin Smith to step away from the game, only three players on Houston’s entire defense project to be average or better, in Eric Kendricks, James Bradberry, and Jonathan Allen. Beyond that, the Texans have potential contributors Von Bell, Cody Barton, Dexter Lawrence, Yetur Gross-Matos, and Dakota Allen, but it’s very clearly his biggest non-QB weakness.
X-factor: Quarterback and Defense. Without a quarterback, and without much of a defense, this is the worst iteration of the Texans that we have seen since Ryan entered the league. That said, he’s still better than some of the teams at the bottom of the division, meaning that, as of now, it’s hard to envision him falling far in the division.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Indianapolis Colts (J.R.)
Last year’s finish: 27th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: In 2019, the Colts replicated their 2018 performance, with a 4-8 finish on the season. For the first time since drafting him in 2015, J.R.’s Colts will not feature Jameis Winston at quarterback. His replacement, acquired just the other day (A day after this was written, and has just been updated) is Cam Newton, who if healthy, could push Indy over the top by his inclusion alone. At running back, Indianapolis returns one of the best tandems in the league, in Joe Mixon, and Adrian Peterson. While Peterson’s reign in Washington (And his tenure in the league) may not be long, he should still present a solid option. Wide receiver is a position with a lot of potential for the Colts, but not much in the way of verified past production. J.R. has spent mightily of late, using first round picks in 2019 on Parris Campbell, Miles Boykin, and this year, Justin Jefferson. He has also added Joe Reed, who may work his way into some time in the presently banged up Los Angeles Chargers WR corps. Jefferson probably has the highest upside of any, but has been slow to take to the Minnesota offense so far, per reports, and his chances to earn a significant early season role may be fading. At tight end, the Colts lost presumed top-option Josh Oliver to a season-ending injury for the second year in a row, leaving Detroit backup Jesse James, and New England rookie Devin Asiasi, who is currently injured, and must fend off a challenge from top SPARQ score athlete, and fellow rookie, Dalton Keene, but is on track to start. Defensively, there are a few nice pieces, none more so than Nick Vigil, who figures to man the middle for the real life Chargers this year. Beyond him, there are defensive lineman DeForest Buckner, outside linebacker Bud Dupree, and cornerback Denzel Ward. Presently, however, no other player projects to be above league average on this side of the ball—though Christian Jones, Uchenna Nwosu, and Kenny Moore could have opportunity to do so (Moore is presently hurt). Added to Moore on the injured (Or not participating due to a variance of reasons) are B.J. Goodson, Greedy Williams, and DeAndre Baker. Ultimately, it’s about as average a defense as is possible, at least as of today.
X-factor: Defense. Now with a high-upside quarterback (Provided that he's healthy), J.R. has improved his team the most on paper more than any offseason in recent memory. He still needs to string together a few more moves to capitalize on the potential of this roster. If the receivers rise to prominence earlier than expected, perhaps it can make up for the high-end deficiencies of the defense. Or, if several of the below average contributors on the defensive side make themselves into above average ones, J.R. may be able to sneak into his first playoff game, allowing Indianapolis to break the dubious streak of never reaching the postseason (As they’re the only team who has still yet to make the postseason since the league began).
Projected division finish: 2nd
Jacksonville Jaguars (Jordan)
Last year’s finish: 6th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Jordan reclaimed the division championship a year ago, but was once again vanquished in the playoffs by division foe, Houston, in the second round. The bulk of those two teams are still present, though there are some causes for concern on both sides of the ball after recent developments. Quarterback, however, is not one of those positions, as Jordan will roll with Russ for the third-straight year. Tyrod Taylor is also present, for now (Though Jordan will likely move Tyrod as opposed to Russ before next week’s QB Rule deadline). At running back, he sports one of the deeper depth charts, with David Johnson, who presumably is stepping into lead back duties after his trade to Houston, James Conner, who looks to put a dismal, injury-plagued 2019 behind him, after a breakout year in 2018, and when he’s ready to resume play, former long-time Texans’ starter, Lamar Miller. The loss of Derrius Guice--presumably for good--is sizeable, but, again, it’s a scenario where Jacksonville is still firmly among the haves vs. the have-nots at the position. At wide receiver, it’s a strong corps of Tyler Boyd, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams, and rookie Brandon Aiyuk (Once he is recovered from a hamstring injury). That group is a pretty solid foursome. At tight end, it’s Austin Hooper, who after a breakout year, signed with Cleveland. I don’t know whether there’s more competition for targets, but I do know that new coach Kevin Stefanski plans to use tight ends more often. Behind him are Dan Arnold and Logan Thomas, two under-the-radar signings that could earn the top spots on their offense’s respective depth chart at the position. Defensively, the Jaguars also sport one of the top units in the league on paper, with several impact players. Each year, Jacksonville is one of the best at scrapping together value on the defensive side, while reserving most of his major investment to be on the offensive side of the ball. On the defensive line, Matt Ioannidis is presently the Jags’ only option, though he broke out as a superb option in 2019. At linebacker, there is a solid core of players, who can exceed their projections. Christian Kirksey is the obvious star, though he comes with a parade of injury baggage that has kept him off the field much of the last two years. Jayon Brown should also be a quality starting piece for Jordan, as may Jon Bostic, Foye Olokun, and Travin Howard. Rookie additions Tanner Muse and Davion Taylor may see early time for their respective teams, who each have holes at the LB position. At defensive back, the Jaguars once again register as one of the best, with Landon Collins, Justin Johnson, and Chuck Clark. Deon Bush, who may win the battle for the Bears’ open DB spot, and Xavier McKinney, a rookie pick out of Alabama, may contribute, especially if McKinney gets healthy down the stretch, after suffering a training camp injury.
X-factor: Defense and Health. For a third year in a row, I believe it most prudent to repeat my X-factor from each of the past two years. It’s a maximum value defense, at present, where cheap acquisitions may lead to significant contributions. The problem is, the meat of this defense doesn’t stack up to some of the other top teams in the league. Also a refrain from last year, “This offense is just too good, with too many options, not to hit on enough big games from said options, and to drop 70 or more on a team every week. If Jordan manages to meet or even exceed my proclamation, he’s going to do very well for himself this year.” I think that still does the job for this year as well, health provided.
Projected division finish: 1st
Tennessee Titans (Erik)
Last year’s finish: 26th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Erik entered 2019 on the second year of a rebuild, taking over a franchise that had long been neglected of anything approaching a long-term outlook. While it was hardly a banner year, a 4-8 record represented some real progress, and further proof was delivered when he not only managed to stock up on future assets for the 2021 draft (At current, giving him four 1st Round picks, but eight picks in total), but also in 2020 rookie selections D’Andre Swift, and Albert O (Not even gonna try). Added to a core that is building itself into a solid long-term group (Daniel Jones, Terry McLaurin, Mecole Hardman, and now Swift), Tennessee’s dynasty arrow is pointed straight up. Offense is where the majority of Tennessee’s draft investment has come, with the trade for Jones last year, he secured a starter who lit up fantasy scoreboards—but also turned the ball over at an alarming rate. A true gunslinger, it’ll be interesting to see if Jones is able to reign in the mistakes, or if he becomes the second-coming of Jameis Winston. At running back, Swift immediately becomes the Titans’ top option, though assuming he wins his camp battle as the Chargers’ backup, Justin Jackson is quite a useful piece himself. At wideout, both of the Titans’ 2019 WR picks were absolute home runs, with Terry McLaurin tearing it up (While in a bad offense, no less), and on the flip side of the coin, Mecole Hardman showing game-breaking speed in all phases of the game (Read: offense, kickoff return, and punt return). Despite some thinking about scaling back his responsibilities to offense-only, the greater wisdom seems to have prevailed, and per reports, Hardman will retain all three roles, maximizing his fantasy value in this league. Paul Richardson, perhaps an afterthought until just now, recently signed with the Seahawks, and could carve out a role in 3-wide sets. That makes him a potentially useful piece. At tight end, Erik is taking a gamble, with Tyler Eifert (And his uniquely-long injury history) manning the spot, and with only one rostered player behind him (The aforementioned Albert O), he’s betting on his health, as were the Jaguars when they signed him, after a far less dynamic version of Eifert was able to stay healthy in 2019. Defensively, there are some positives from this unit, namely K.J. Wright, and Danny Trevathan, assuming they are back to health (Wright’s injury was more of a 2018 concern) and that their roles will remain the same, Harrison Smith, whose game took a noticeable slip last year in every category except for fantasy, and Stephon Tuitt. Outside of those three are Jason Pierre-Paul, who was unable to get to the QB as often in 2019 as he had previously, but was still excellent at registering pressures (Something that we don’t score), Blake Cashman, and Alex Anzalone. Overall, there are definitely some missing pieces—particularly at defensive line, and a secondary defensive back, but overall, the defense is a decent one. I suspect that Erik may try to remedy this side of the ball with some of those 2021 picks—though I also suppose he could try to add now, especially if he gets off to a hot start.
X-factor: Defense and depth. Tennessee took a huge step last year, but there are still more to take, particularly in the depth and defensive categories. While the starting unit could rival most teams in the league, bye weeks and injuries could wreak havoc on any plans of contention the Titans may have, for what otherwise has the look of a fringe-playoff team. Erik may have to make a decision early on about any chance of competing this year, as well as buttressing that up against his future.
Projected division finish: 4th
Remember to watch out for the fourth of our divisional previews, this time the AFC North, which should drop in the next few days. Thanks again guys.
This post was edited, as J.R. traded for Cam Newton later on the day after this post was made. The new division order has been reflected in the predictions.*