Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Aug 30, 2019 15:30:46 GMT -5
AFC EAST
As we ordered the divisions based on competitiveness (And ability to easily call the winners/order), the AFC East is the hardest to do so. It is the only division that I can ever remember in my six seasons of handling previews, where all four teams have a legitimate shot of winning the division, and that I could easily see happening with a break one way or another. In fact, between the discussions of Jordan and myself, we’ve gone back-and-fourth on the winner at least three times, and it appears we were well-served by waiting as long as we could to call it, as there have been developments that sway one team in one direction or another over the others on a near daily basis recently. The website Fantasypros is only able to separate teams 1-3 in this preview by 4 total points (On a 100-point scale), and that accounts for all three teams being ranked between 15-19 in their preseason power rankings. So, therefore, it’s time to show you why the AFC East is an absolute beast to project (Even though there appear to be no beastly teams in the fold). Can Castle finally avoid the injury woes that have derailed him, and make a statement with some brand new, flashy players? Will Chris upend the division order and return to the team he was in 2015 and 2017 (Is he this league’s version of the even-year San Francisco Giants)? Is Travis built for contention, or does he still need a few pieces? Or will Sal hold onto the division crown for a record-tying fifth consecutive year? All will be revealed starting next week. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Buffalo Bills (Sal)
Last year’s finish: 8th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: The AFC East has been Sal’s domain for four consecutive years. Will it continue to be? Well, Iunnknuh. The Bills return the mainstays of Matt Ryan, Aaron Jones, A.J. Green, Sammy Watkins, Devin Funchess (Or Funcheese as Sal prefers), Cole Beasley, and Jordan Reed. It should make for an explosive offense, as always—that is, IF they were all healthy. As of now, Buffalo’s best offensive player, A.J. Green, is out for at least several weeks of the regular season (If not more) after an ankle injury/surgery suffered during the middle of camp, the habitually-injured Jordan Reed is beset by a concussion, and Aaron Jones, Sal’s only running back at present, has nursed a hamstring injury throughout camp. If all parties are healthy in short order, there’s little doubt this unit is top-10, if not top-5 even. Because of the lack of depth, however, if the injury bug should bite (Or continue to bite), Marquez Valdes-Scantling, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and Jake Kumerow could be finding their way into Sal’s lineup. That would be less than ideal (The understatement of the year). Defensively, it’s been a completely different story, and a nearly impossible one to track, as Sal has relied on (And basically been forced into) playing the free agent game to piece together a unit on a budget (Both cap and asset-wise). While he does have Kevin Byard, Adrian Phillips, and A’Shawn Robinson, and productive players in the past whose roles figure to lessen such as Jatavis Brown, Mychal Kendricks, Shaquil Barrett, and Damontae Kazee, the remainder of the unit is…potentially quite gruff. Sal started off the post-draft offseason with the signings of UDFA rookies Oshane Ximines (Who arguably had a first round pedigree), size-speed and productivity prospect Anthony Nelson, and undersized LB prospect Vosean Joseph, and followed it up with astute signings of guys like Neville Hewitt, Samuel Eguavoen, and Raven Greene, who have all done some depth chart climbing, either lucking into those spots due to injuries to those above them, or taking over for higher profile players who have disappointed, or been jettisoned completely by their team. The long-term viability of such a strategy is dubious, as guys of that profile rarely stick in those roles for a long time without being displaced, but it could pay huge dividends for Sal in the short-term, if it allows him to field even an average defense this year. There are no stars (Except maybe for Byard and Robinson), but the unit may end up being good enough in the aggregate.
X-factor: Depth and Linebacker. The bones are there on offense, but margin for error is so slim, even on that side of the ball, especially at running back and tight end, where there are known injury risks and no backups. Defensively, it’s hard to tell how much quality depth is present, but with the majority of his assets committed and necessary to this team, he’s going to live and die by what he’s done, and what he can continue to scourge off the FA market.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Miami Dolphins (Castle)
Last year’s finish: 24th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: After making the playoffs in his first year (2015), and in the wake of almost laughably bad injury luck, Castle has been in the rebuilding phase ever since. Signs are pointing to the Dolphins coming out though, with the dynasty arrow pointing straight up for Miami. For those looking at his roster and seeing an otherwise ordinary team, let me point you to the critical moves that Josh has undertaken in the last two calendar years-plus of offseasons. Firstly, it started with trades with Cincinnati, allowing him to acquire Austin Hooper (Now traded, but we’ll get back to that), and Kenny Stills and Za’Darius Smith. Last offseason, he escalated his standing with the drafting of last year’s rookie phenom Sony Michel (Whose role has since come into doubt, and then back into solidarity—depending on if you believe such a pendulum of projections). Then he swung two big trades: moving Hooper for Tahir Whitehead, Jaquiski Tartt, and Jake Butt (The one part of the deal that looks like a poor bet to pay off at present, as he is further suffering from his chronic injuries), and the bigger noisemaker (And upgrade) in the off-season—Ridding himself of Blake Bortles, and upgrading to Marcus Mariota, trading from a place of depth all for a reasonable price. He followed that up by drafting AJ Brown, to add to an already solid receiving corps that includes Kenny Stills, Quincy Enunwa, Willie Snead, and Demaryius Thomas. Nobody in that group is a fantasy superstar, but all should have roles and be fantasy contributors at a minimum. The other fortuitous development for Castle is the elevation of Damien Williams to the top of the Chiefs’ running back depth chart—something Josh had the patience and the foresight to take advantage of by just sitting on Williams and awaiting his ascension via Kareem Hunt’s kick in his own ass. Having two starting running backs in this league is a true luxury, and one that if Castle fully realizes, gives him an advantage on almost every team in that department on a weekly basis. He also maintains Jacksonville handcuff Alfred Blue, who somehow mysteriously finds his way into at least 100 ineffective touches every year, and that goes double for a running back with as much recent baggage (And as universally hated within his own organization) as Leonard Fournette. The biggest problem is tight end—both the lack of a starter, or any healthy player at the position now. On defense, it’s a much-improved unit from a year ago, starting with the rewards of the Hooper trade—Whitehad and Tartt. Those two are the headliners, but there is much more to be optimistic about. On the defensive line, the combo of Michael Brockers and second-year star Da’Ron Payne is one of the better top-twos in the league. Unfortunately, behind them, is only first round rookie Josh Allen, who may not have much of an early role (Outside of a situational pass rusher) on a deep and talented Jacksonville defensive line. Behind Whitehead, there are no obvious standouts from a fantasy perspective, but the combo of A.J. Klein, Za’Darius Smith, Devon Kennard, and Whitney Mercilus should all have fairly consistent and significant roles—though it’ll be hard to project the weekly starters from sack-dependent options like Smith, Kennard, and Mercilus. At defensive back, behind Tartt and Miami mainstay Janoris Jenkins are Justin Coleman, Terrance Mitchell, and Armani Watts. Though Coleman and Mitchell are both ticketed for starting cornerback jobs, this group is nothing better than average. Overall, the defense is about dead middle in terms of the league, but compared to previous iterations, that’s an obvious improvement.
X-factor: Tight end and defensive upgrade. Perhaps Josh should trade from his newfound abundance of running back options—or perhaps not, as that may be one of his best attributes. It’s hard to tell, and it could put him in a precarious position if a health issue rears its ugly head again. It’s a crapshoot. But, finding a starring quality tight end to at least plug into the lineup on a weekly basis would be strongly advised, as despite the ultra-competitive nature of the AFC field, the Dolphins are legitimately right there in the conversation (Maybe right there at the back end, but still right there). If a couple of things were to break his way, or if he were to break them in his way (Is that even a thing?) via an upgrade at TE and or IDP, it’s not inconceivable to see him sneak in to the playoffs (A prediction I teased in last year’s preview), a stark difference from a year ago, when the Dolphins were basically relying on Navorro Bowman finding a team to sign him to hope for any kind of defensive relevance.
Projected division finish: 4th
New England Patriots (Chris)
Last year’s finish: 30th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: 2018 was nightmarish for Chris’ Patriots. After a four-win jump from 2016 to 2017, New England dropped back down the ladder the exact same number of rungs, equaling the 2016 Pats’ 2-10 finish. But, there were certainly mitigating factors that help to explain that decrease (Statistically, those seasons weren’t that divergent anyway, less than a 300-point difference from worst to best), including any injury to Andy Dalton, and a not-fully-healthy-yet Dalvin Cook with a reduced workload. However, Chris had managed to acquire quite a few picks heading into this year’s rookie draft, and used them to fundamentally change the core of this team for the future. Chris picked DK Metcalf (Who has so far proven to be the best at working out—Like principal Terrance Cutler—and has impressed Russell Wilson—If not Kenny Powers), re-handcuffed himself at RB by replacing the outgoing Latavius Murray with Alexander Mattinson, added a member of the former NC State WR triumvirate in Kelvin Harmon, and then picked up the unquantifiably-talented but perennially injured Rodney Anderson (Who was just confirmed with another ACL tear during my writing this), the Raiders’ rookie MLB Te’Von Coney (Who is presently buried on the depth chart, and may be headed for the practice squad), and offseason puff piece Keesean Johnson with his third day picks. Chris also used some of his picks (Alongside Robbie Anderson and Mark Barron, whom he took in the UFA 1st Round, and who has now fallen out of favor in Pittsburgh) to acquire CJ Mosley, Dee Ford, Carlos Hyde, and Kiko Alonso. Overall, the offense appears to be in solid shape, with Dalton (If healthy and with AJ Green in the fold) should be at least average, with Cook, and then a litany of other RB options (None of whom figure to have a firm 2019 role) behind him, and rookie WR options Metcalf, Harmon, and Johnson leading the way at that position, and David Njoku at TE. Demarcus Robinson and Taywan Taylor are also both in the fold at wideout, but they are just more filler than anything else. The majority of the load will have to be carried by the rookies there. It’s at least possible, if not probable, that NE is a year away there. On defense, there is an overabundance of DL, something that Chris has yet to be willing to address (At least until recently). If Jadaveon Clowney is on the field Week 1, and he and Cameron Jordan can stay healthy, the argument can be made that they’re the best twosome in the league at that position. Dee Ford, Jarran Reed, and B.J. Hill provide very high-end quality depth, but Reed is suspended early in the season, and Ford is learning a new position. Behind those top-5 are Jachai Polite, who was an expensive add for a DL (Rookie or otherwise) in FA, and sophomore Tyquan Lewis. If you’re counting, yes, that’s seven DL, hence the overabundance—and still too few LB (Forget impactful ones), as only Tim Williams is behind Mosley and Alonso. At defensive back, Chris has relied squarely on cornerbacks, though some of the higher scoring corners in the league, in Kyle Fuller, Malcolm Butler, Tre Flowers, and though his role might have mostly disappeared, Mike Hughes (From a year ago at least). While safeties are still highly preferable, and corners are often bastions of inconsistency from year-to-year, the high-scoring nature of the guys at the top of this group buoy it against some of the drawbacks.
X-factor: Linebacker and wide receiver. To repeat concerns from last year, linebacker is an issue for the Pats. Chris has heeded that advice from a year ago by adding Mosley and Alonso (If he keeps his role and is not cut by the tanking Dolphins), but that’s not enough. Adding another quality producer at the position, and at wide receiver, may take New England from the fringes of competing for this division and for a playoff spot, to being solidly in. If not, NE is likely looking at a repeat of 2017 again.
Projected division finish: 3rd
New York Jets (Travis)
Last year’s finish: 12th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: It’s year-two of Travis at the helm in charge of the Jets, and with the division as weak as it’s been at the top for at least five seasons, it’s rife with opportunity for him to take hold. Will he do it? Well that depends on the fantasy outlook of several of his players; namely, one Kenyan Drake. This writer, obviously has an opinion of how Miami’s backfield situation will play out (Based on how much he just paid to essentially short Drake in favor of Kalen Ballage), but that doesn’t mean I think that Drake is awful, or that he has no role for Miami or someone else—only that I definitely don’t see him as a full-time starter anymore (And frankly never did). Along with the consternation with Drake’s role is the role of quarterback Joe Flacco. While it would appear that Flacco apparently has a vice grip on the role of starting QB for the Broncos entering the season (As current Denver HC Vic Fangio made the derisive comments, in reference to rookie Drew Lock, that he(Flacco)’s the only QB on the roster at present), he has played his last four seasons (And five of his last six since signing his monster league-record, at the time, contract extension) at sub-replacement level, and has spent the majority of that time only being elite from the standpoint of being a complete douchebag to his teammates, and suffering the karmic injuries that he has no doubt been due. However, New York has seen several fortuitous developments over the last few weeks that have pushed them towards the top of the division; chiefly, the reemergence of Josh Gordon after the league allowed him to return. He gives Travis a dynamic 1-2 punch at WR with Adam Thielen. Behind them, however, are only Marquise Lee (Who faces an uncertain role upon his return from season-ending injury a year ago, and is now clearly behind Dede Westbrook), Isaiah McKenzie, and rookie Gary Jennings Jr. At tight end, the Jets have perhaps the league’s best option in Travis Kelce now that Gronk is retired. On the bench, every position has a handcuff, including QB with Teddy Bridgewater, who is Drew Brees’ direct backup I suppose (Not knowing how much of a role Taysom Hill would occupy if Brees went down). Duke Johnson, who may end up usurping Drake as the Jets’ best RB option sooner rather than later, received a godsend in the form of a trade to the Houston Texans, who promptly lost Lamar Miller to an ACL tear, and now is in line for lead-ish duties. Malcolm Brown, Elijah Holyfield, and Jordan Scarlett all bring up the rear at that position. Nick Vannett might be one of the better handcuffs at TE as well, if there could be any certainty at Seattle’s TE position. On defense, there is a lot of intrigue, but an equal amount of uncertainty. On the defensive line, Travis has three solid options, in Everson Griffen (If he is in good mental health and can return to his level of production from 2017 and before), Damon “Snacks” Harrison, and sophomore Maurice Hurst. Linebacker, however, is the biggest turnaround, and reason for optimism, after the Jets were dealt a 3-for-1 starting situation when the Redskins released Zach Brown early this offseason, and Mason Foster later, effectively guaranteeing Jon Bostic and Shaun Dion Hamilton starting spots, in addition to Brown one in Philadelphia, his new team, as long as he’s no longer being outplayed by backups there. The release of Malcolm Smith by the 49ers days ago is a blow, but he was not projected for a full-time role. At defensive back, it’s a solidly-above average group, with Anthony Harris slated for full-time starting for the first time, and Adoree’ Jackson, Chidobe Awuzie, and T.J. Carrie all likely continuing their solid fantasy production.
X-factor: Uncertainty. Does Flacco keep his job? Does Drake? Can Lee regain his? Can Gordon and Griffen stay out of trouble? Can Duke Johnson be “the guy?” Will the three starting linebackers that Travis has lucked into be enough? If there are more yeses than nos to those queries, I would say that means Travis wins his first division title. If not, Sal is likely to win his record-tying fifth-straight AFC East crown. Though Sal’s team probably has a higher 2019 ceiling with some of his signings, he has even more uncertainty with those less established guys. At least Travis’ group generally has some significant chops, both in real life and fantasy, in their past. And that’s the difference for now. But I can’t help thinking that Sal is going to prove me wrong.
Projected division finish: 1st
The AFC East is our eighth and final divisional previews. This concludes our preseason divisional previews for 2019. I will publish the preseason power rankings, as well as the Hall of Fame posts next week. Thanks again guys.
As we ordered the divisions based on competitiveness (And ability to easily call the winners/order), the AFC East is the hardest to do so. It is the only division that I can ever remember in my six seasons of handling previews, where all four teams have a legitimate shot of winning the division, and that I could easily see happening with a break one way or another. In fact, between the discussions of Jordan and myself, we’ve gone back-and-fourth on the winner at least three times, and it appears we were well-served by waiting as long as we could to call it, as there have been developments that sway one team in one direction or another over the others on a near daily basis recently. The website Fantasypros is only able to separate teams 1-3 in this preview by 4 total points (On a 100-point scale), and that accounts for all three teams being ranked between 15-19 in their preseason power rankings. So, therefore, it’s time to show you why the AFC East is an absolute beast to project (Even though there appear to be no beastly teams in the fold). Can Castle finally avoid the injury woes that have derailed him, and make a statement with some brand new, flashy players? Will Chris upend the division order and return to the team he was in 2015 and 2017 (Is he this league’s version of the even-year San Francisco Giants)? Is Travis built for contention, or does he still need a few pieces? Or will Sal hold onto the division crown for a record-tying fifth consecutive year? All will be revealed starting next week. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Buffalo Bills (Sal)
Last year’s finish: 8th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: The AFC East has been Sal’s domain for four consecutive years. Will it continue to be? Well, Iunnknuh. The Bills return the mainstays of Matt Ryan, Aaron Jones, A.J. Green, Sammy Watkins, Devin Funchess (Or Funcheese as Sal prefers), Cole Beasley, and Jordan Reed. It should make for an explosive offense, as always—that is, IF they were all healthy. As of now, Buffalo’s best offensive player, A.J. Green, is out for at least several weeks of the regular season (If not more) after an ankle injury/surgery suffered during the middle of camp, the habitually-injured Jordan Reed is beset by a concussion, and Aaron Jones, Sal’s only running back at present, has nursed a hamstring injury throughout camp. If all parties are healthy in short order, there’s little doubt this unit is top-10, if not top-5 even. Because of the lack of depth, however, if the injury bug should bite (Or continue to bite), Marquez Valdes-Scantling, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and Jake Kumerow could be finding their way into Sal’s lineup. That would be less than ideal (The understatement of the year). Defensively, it’s been a completely different story, and a nearly impossible one to track, as Sal has relied on (And basically been forced into) playing the free agent game to piece together a unit on a budget (Both cap and asset-wise). While he does have Kevin Byard, Adrian Phillips, and A’Shawn Robinson, and productive players in the past whose roles figure to lessen such as Jatavis Brown, Mychal Kendricks, Shaquil Barrett, and Damontae Kazee, the remainder of the unit is…potentially quite gruff. Sal started off the post-draft offseason with the signings of UDFA rookies Oshane Ximines (Who arguably had a first round pedigree), size-speed and productivity prospect Anthony Nelson, and undersized LB prospect Vosean Joseph, and followed it up with astute signings of guys like Neville Hewitt, Samuel Eguavoen, and Raven Greene, who have all done some depth chart climbing, either lucking into those spots due to injuries to those above them, or taking over for higher profile players who have disappointed, or been jettisoned completely by their team. The long-term viability of such a strategy is dubious, as guys of that profile rarely stick in those roles for a long time without being displaced, but it could pay huge dividends for Sal in the short-term, if it allows him to field even an average defense this year. There are no stars (Except maybe for Byard and Robinson), but the unit may end up being good enough in the aggregate.
X-factor: Depth and Linebacker. The bones are there on offense, but margin for error is so slim, even on that side of the ball, especially at running back and tight end, where there are known injury risks and no backups. Defensively, it’s hard to tell how much quality depth is present, but with the majority of his assets committed and necessary to this team, he’s going to live and die by what he’s done, and what he can continue to scourge off the FA market.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Miami Dolphins (Castle)
Last year’s finish: 24th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: After making the playoffs in his first year (2015), and in the wake of almost laughably bad injury luck, Castle has been in the rebuilding phase ever since. Signs are pointing to the Dolphins coming out though, with the dynasty arrow pointing straight up for Miami. For those looking at his roster and seeing an otherwise ordinary team, let me point you to the critical moves that Josh has undertaken in the last two calendar years-plus of offseasons. Firstly, it started with trades with Cincinnati, allowing him to acquire Austin Hooper (Now traded, but we’ll get back to that), and Kenny Stills and Za’Darius Smith. Last offseason, he escalated his standing with the drafting of last year’s rookie phenom Sony Michel (Whose role has since come into doubt, and then back into solidarity—depending on if you believe such a pendulum of projections). Then he swung two big trades: moving Hooper for Tahir Whitehead, Jaquiski Tartt, and Jake Butt (The one part of the deal that looks like a poor bet to pay off at present, as he is further suffering from his chronic injuries), and the bigger noisemaker (And upgrade) in the off-season—Ridding himself of Blake Bortles, and upgrading to Marcus Mariota, trading from a place of depth all for a reasonable price. He followed that up by drafting AJ Brown, to add to an already solid receiving corps that includes Kenny Stills, Quincy Enunwa, Willie Snead, and Demaryius Thomas. Nobody in that group is a fantasy superstar, but all should have roles and be fantasy contributors at a minimum. The other fortuitous development for Castle is the elevation of Damien Williams to the top of the Chiefs’ running back depth chart—something Josh had the patience and the foresight to take advantage of by just sitting on Williams and awaiting his ascension via Kareem Hunt’s kick in his own ass. Having two starting running backs in this league is a true luxury, and one that if Castle fully realizes, gives him an advantage on almost every team in that department on a weekly basis. He also maintains Jacksonville handcuff Alfred Blue, who somehow mysteriously finds his way into at least 100 ineffective touches every year, and that goes double for a running back with as much recent baggage (And as universally hated within his own organization) as Leonard Fournette. The biggest problem is tight end—both the lack of a starter, or any healthy player at the position now. On defense, it’s a much-improved unit from a year ago, starting with the rewards of the Hooper trade—Whitehad and Tartt. Those two are the headliners, but there is much more to be optimistic about. On the defensive line, the combo of Michael Brockers and second-year star Da’Ron Payne is one of the better top-twos in the league. Unfortunately, behind them, is only first round rookie Josh Allen, who may not have much of an early role (Outside of a situational pass rusher) on a deep and talented Jacksonville defensive line. Behind Whitehead, there are no obvious standouts from a fantasy perspective, but the combo of A.J. Klein, Za’Darius Smith, Devon Kennard, and Whitney Mercilus should all have fairly consistent and significant roles—though it’ll be hard to project the weekly starters from sack-dependent options like Smith, Kennard, and Mercilus. At defensive back, behind Tartt and Miami mainstay Janoris Jenkins are Justin Coleman, Terrance Mitchell, and Armani Watts. Though Coleman and Mitchell are both ticketed for starting cornerback jobs, this group is nothing better than average. Overall, the defense is about dead middle in terms of the league, but compared to previous iterations, that’s an obvious improvement.
X-factor: Tight end and defensive upgrade. Perhaps Josh should trade from his newfound abundance of running back options—or perhaps not, as that may be one of his best attributes. It’s hard to tell, and it could put him in a precarious position if a health issue rears its ugly head again. It’s a crapshoot. But, finding a starring quality tight end to at least plug into the lineup on a weekly basis would be strongly advised, as despite the ultra-competitive nature of the AFC field, the Dolphins are legitimately right there in the conversation (Maybe right there at the back end, but still right there). If a couple of things were to break his way, or if he were to break them in his way (Is that even a thing?) via an upgrade at TE and or IDP, it’s not inconceivable to see him sneak in to the playoffs (A prediction I teased in last year’s preview), a stark difference from a year ago, when the Dolphins were basically relying on Navorro Bowman finding a team to sign him to hope for any kind of defensive relevance.
Projected division finish: 4th
New England Patriots (Chris)
Last year’s finish: 30th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: 2018 was nightmarish for Chris’ Patriots. After a four-win jump from 2016 to 2017, New England dropped back down the ladder the exact same number of rungs, equaling the 2016 Pats’ 2-10 finish. But, there were certainly mitigating factors that help to explain that decrease (Statistically, those seasons weren’t that divergent anyway, less than a 300-point difference from worst to best), including any injury to Andy Dalton, and a not-fully-healthy-yet Dalvin Cook with a reduced workload. However, Chris had managed to acquire quite a few picks heading into this year’s rookie draft, and used them to fundamentally change the core of this team for the future. Chris picked DK Metcalf (Who has so far proven to be the best at working out—Like principal Terrance Cutler—and has impressed Russell Wilson—If not Kenny Powers), re-handcuffed himself at RB by replacing the outgoing Latavius Murray with Alexander Mattinson, added a member of the former NC State WR triumvirate in Kelvin Harmon, and then picked up the unquantifiably-talented but perennially injured Rodney Anderson (Who was just confirmed with another ACL tear during my writing this), the Raiders’ rookie MLB Te’Von Coney (Who is presently buried on the depth chart, and may be headed for the practice squad), and offseason puff piece Keesean Johnson with his third day picks. Chris also used some of his picks (Alongside Robbie Anderson and Mark Barron, whom he took in the UFA 1st Round, and who has now fallen out of favor in Pittsburgh) to acquire CJ Mosley, Dee Ford, Carlos Hyde, and Kiko Alonso. Overall, the offense appears to be in solid shape, with Dalton (If healthy and with AJ Green in the fold) should be at least average, with Cook, and then a litany of other RB options (None of whom figure to have a firm 2019 role) behind him, and rookie WR options Metcalf, Harmon, and Johnson leading the way at that position, and David Njoku at TE. Demarcus Robinson and Taywan Taylor are also both in the fold at wideout, but they are just more filler than anything else. The majority of the load will have to be carried by the rookies there. It’s at least possible, if not probable, that NE is a year away there. On defense, there is an overabundance of DL, something that Chris has yet to be willing to address (At least until recently). If Jadaveon Clowney is on the field Week 1, and he and Cameron Jordan can stay healthy, the argument can be made that they’re the best twosome in the league at that position. Dee Ford, Jarran Reed, and B.J. Hill provide very high-end quality depth, but Reed is suspended early in the season, and Ford is learning a new position. Behind those top-5 are Jachai Polite, who was an expensive add for a DL (Rookie or otherwise) in FA, and sophomore Tyquan Lewis. If you’re counting, yes, that’s seven DL, hence the overabundance—and still too few LB (Forget impactful ones), as only Tim Williams is behind Mosley and Alonso. At defensive back, Chris has relied squarely on cornerbacks, though some of the higher scoring corners in the league, in Kyle Fuller, Malcolm Butler, Tre Flowers, and though his role might have mostly disappeared, Mike Hughes (From a year ago at least). While safeties are still highly preferable, and corners are often bastions of inconsistency from year-to-year, the high-scoring nature of the guys at the top of this group buoy it against some of the drawbacks.
X-factor: Linebacker and wide receiver. To repeat concerns from last year, linebacker is an issue for the Pats. Chris has heeded that advice from a year ago by adding Mosley and Alonso (If he keeps his role and is not cut by the tanking Dolphins), but that’s not enough. Adding another quality producer at the position, and at wide receiver, may take New England from the fringes of competing for this division and for a playoff spot, to being solidly in. If not, NE is likely looking at a repeat of 2017 again.
Projected division finish: 3rd
New York Jets (Travis)
Last year’s finish: 12th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: It’s year-two of Travis at the helm in charge of the Jets, and with the division as weak as it’s been at the top for at least five seasons, it’s rife with opportunity for him to take hold. Will he do it? Well that depends on the fantasy outlook of several of his players; namely, one Kenyan Drake. This writer, obviously has an opinion of how Miami’s backfield situation will play out (Based on how much he just paid to essentially short Drake in favor of Kalen Ballage), but that doesn’t mean I think that Drake is awful, or that he has no role for Miami or someone else—only that I definitely don’t see him as a full-time starter anymore (And frankly never did). Along with the consternation with Drake’s role is the role of quarterback Joe Flacco. While it would appear that Flacco apparently has a vice grip on the role of starting QB for the Broncos entering the season (As current Denver HC Vic Fangio made the derisive comments, in reference to rookie Drew Lock, that he(Flacco)’s the only QB on the roster at present), he has played his last four seasons (And five of his last six since signing his monster league-record, at the time, contract extension) at sub-replacement level, and has spent the majority of that time only being elite from the standpoint of being a complete douchebag to his teammates, and suffering the karmic injuries that he has no doubt been due. However, New York has seen several fortuitous developments over the last few weeks that have pushed them towards the top of the division; chiefly, the reemergence of Josh Gordon after the league allowed him to return. He gives Travis a dynamic 1-2 punch at WR with Adam Thielen. Behind them, however, are only Marquise Lee (Who faces an uncertain role upon his return from season-ending injury a year ago, and is now clearly behind Dede Westbrook), Isaiah McKenzie, and rookie Gary Jennings Jr. At tight end, the Jets have perhaps the league’s best option in Travis Kelce now that Gronk is retired. On the bench, every position has a handcuff, including QB with Teddy Bridgewater, who is Drew Brees’ direct backup I suppose (Not knowing how much of a role Taysom Hill would occupy if Brees went down). Duke Johnson, who may end up usurping Drake as the Jets’ best RB option sooner rather than later, received a godsend in the form of a trade to the Houston Texans, who promptly lost Lamar Miller to an ACL tear, and now is in line for lead-ish duties. Malcolm Brown, Elijah Holyfield, and Jordan Scarlett all bring up the rear at that position. Nick Vannett might be one of the better handcuffs at TE as well, if there could be any certainty at Seattle’s TE position. On defense, there is a lot of intrigue, but an equal amount of uncertainty. On the defensive line, Travis has three solid options, in Everson Griffen (If he is in good mental health and can return to his level of production from 2017 and before), Damon “Snacks” Harrison, and sophomore Maurice Hurst. Linebacker, however, is the biggest turnaround, and reason for optimism, after the Jets were dealt a 3-for-1 starting situation when the Redskins released Zach Brown early this offseason, and Mason Foster later, effectively guaranteeing Jon Bostic and Shaun Dion Hamilton starting spots, in addition to Brown one in Philadelphia, his new team, as long as he’s no longer being outplayed by backups there. The release of Malcolm Smith by the 49ers days ago is a blow, but he was not projected for a full-time role. At defensive back, it’s a solidly-above average group, with Anthony Harris slated for full-time starting for the first time, and Adoree’ Jackson, Chidobe Awuzie, and T.J. Carrie all likely continuing their solid fantasy production.
X-factor: Uncertainty. Does Flacco keep his job? Does Drake? Can Lee regain his? Can Gordon and Griffen stay out of trouble? Can Duke Johnson be “the guy?” Will the three starting linebackers that Travis has lucked into be enough? If there are more yeses than nos to those queries, I would say that means Travis wins his first division title. If not, Sal is likely to win his record-tying fifth-straight AFC East crown. Though Sal’s team probably has a higher 2019 ceiling with some of his signings, he has even more uncertainty with those less established guys. At least Travis’ group generally has some significant chops, both in real life and fantasy, in their past. And that’s the difference for now. But I can’t help thinking that Sal is going to prove me wrong.
Projected division finish: 1st
The AFC East is our eighth and final divisional previews. This concludes our preseason divisional previews for 2019. I will publish the preseason power rankings, as well as the Hall of Fame posts next week. Thanks again guys.