Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Aug 2, 2016 18:06:55 GMT -5
NFC NORTH
Continuing with our Divisional Preview series, this week we take a look at the NFC North, a division that produced three playoff teams and the league runner-up in 2015. There is new blood in Mike B. who takes over the Packers, and newish blood in Charlie, who guided the Bears to a somewhat impressive .500 record in his first year in the league, but the two stalwarts of the division, Ryan and Matt return with eyes on the prize, and at least one of them has a legitimate chance to go all the way as currently constructed (Not saying which, but you can guess based on what’s written below). Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Chicago Bears (Charlie)
OFF: 50.15 (60.12 LY)
DEF: 49.07 (46.14 LY)
K: 8.25 (6.83 LY)
TOTAL: 107.47 29th (113.09 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Drew Brees, Chris Ivory, James Jones, DeSean Jackson, Shane Vereen
Defensive Impact Players: Cliff Avril, Greg Hardy, Sheldon Richardson, Jason Pierre-Paul
Last year’s finish and recap- 15th: The Bears got off to a roaring (okay, I know, that’s terrible) start in 2015, going 2-0 against lightweights Indianapolis and Atlanta in the first two weeks before falling to New Orleans by 50+ in Week 3. Chicago got back on the winning side of the ledger in Week 4 with a rout of the Bucs, but it was a one-week remedy, as the Panthers won a low-scoring matchup in Week 5, and two AFC North teams, the Ravens (by 50+ points) and Browns, beat up on CHI the next two weeks, dropping the Bears to under .500 at 3-4. Charlie got his revenge the next two weeks though, beating defending champion Pittsburgh comfortably and curbstomping Cincy by 60 points. Detroit returned the favor in Week 10, romping on the Bears by 40+ to drop Chicago back to 5-5. The Chi town crew managed a close win over the Vikes in Week 11, but were once again beaten severely (by over 50 points) by Green Bay in Week 12 to fall to 6-6 and back into the NFC Playoffs as an 8-seed, where they were promptly drubbed by Seattle in a 2-to-1 point margin. On the year, the Bears gave up ~75 more points than they scored, and in most years that’s not a playoff-worthy team, but all-in-all, Charlie did well in his first year in the league.
Outlook: The offense is very similar to what we saw last year, with Drew Brees running the show and Shane Vereen, DeSean Jackson and Chris Ivory mixing in. For the second-straight year, James Jones being signed by a team is a concern, but provided he is and has an actual role, he could supply some value. The depth, however, on that side of the ball is just not there. Right now it counts only Knile Davis and four rookie skill position players, none of which are likely to play big fantasy role this year. Defensively, the Bears have some work to do. Currently (rookies included) Chicago has six defensive linemen, a number that Charlie might want to pare down to trade for offense or more defensive impact players. Part of the reason that the Bears are projected to drop nearly 15 points is the fact that two offensive starters currently are penciled in for zeroes, as is every current defensive bench player. That obviously won’t be the case, but a decrease in points does make sense given the fantasy ceilings of these defenders.
X-factor: Depth. This is the first team for which overall depth (or lack thereof) really stands out, and it’s stated. If Charlie wants to compete in the North and go back to the playoffs, it probably depends on how much quality depth he can bring in before too long.
Projected division finish: 4th
Detroit Lions (Ryan)
OFF: 75.85 (69.23 LY)
DEF: 78.52 (65.6 LY)
K: 11.31 (8.17 LY)
TOTAL: 165.68 5th (143.00 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Cam Newton, Lamar Miller, Tyler Eifert, Kelvin Benjamin
Defensive Impact Players: Luke Kuechly, Reshad Jones, Bobby Wagner, Jordan Hicks, Barry Church, Antoine Bethea
Last year’s finish and recap- 2nd: Despite a 0-1 start after losing to an elite Buffalo Bills team (Yes, Joe Flacco-elite), Detroit ripped off three wins (by large margins) in a row before New Orleans ended the run emphatically. Detroit tied for the division lead the next week with a comfortable win over Cincinnati, but was dropped back to Earth in Week 7 in a 30+ point loss to Pittsburgh. At 4-3, the Lions’ season was at a crossroads, but in Weeks 8, 9 and 10, Detroit thrashed Cleveland, eviscerated Baltimore (by over 130) and pummeled Chicago by over 40. But even after that, through 10 weeks, Ryan was still unable to shake Green Bay, who had been tied for the Division lead with him since Week 7. That all ended in Week 11, when the Lions comfortably dispatched of the Pack by 40+, setting up a Week 12 win over Minnesota to win the division by a game at 9-3. In the opening round of the playoffs, Ryan knocked the poop out of Aaron’s Cowboys (Poop? It’s called the Waterboy, watch it sometime), beat up on Dave’s Redskins, and finished off Philly for the chance to play Jacksonville in the Super Bowl and put his 8-game winning streak on the line…minus Odell Beckham Jr. (who got suspended at the worst time for fantasy owners). Ryan still maintains that with ODBJ in his lineup, he would have defeated JAX, and it’s tough to argue that he wouldn’t have (the final score was 156.64-152.13 in favor of JAX). At any rate, Ryan finished 2nd (which somehow equals last if you listen to Ricky Bobby’s dad) overall and will be in pursuit of the whole thing this year.
Outlook: Gone is Odell Beckham Jr. and a whole cast of others, but in their place return Tyler Eifert, Bobby Wagner, Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess and Jordan Hicks. Given that news, it’s hard not to say Detroit is an improved team entering 2016, especially defensively, where they look like one of the absolute juggernauts in the league. But one area I see need for improvement in is the receiving corps. Granted, Ryan grabbed perhaps the two top options in Carolina’s passing attack, but the Panthers’ offense is traditionally one of the run-heaviest in the league. Beyond that, there’s only one other receiver on the roster, (T.J. Jones) and he likely just got boxed out of any meaningful playing time by the signing of Anquan Boldin. So work must be done there. Defensively, every position is solid with depth, but adding another DL or two could be crucial if either one of the Lions’ current two linemen were to go down, or if Vinny Curry is classified as a LB again this year. At any rate, this is a strong team, if incomplete, and I trust Ryan to make those corrections before the beginning of the year. I’m not making the same mistakes three times.
X-factor: WR depth. Again, as stated above, behind Carolina’s top-two, the cupboard is bare for Ryan. We’ll wait to see what he does, but this has to be addressed.
Projected division finish: 1st
Green Bay Packers (Mike B)
OFF: 71.66 (49.68 LY)
DEF: 65.51 (63.28 LY)
K: 9.5 (5.25 LY)
TOTAL: 146.67 8th (118.21 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Philip Rivers, Brandon Marshall, DeAngelo Williams, Gary Barnidge, Donte Moncrief
Defensive Impact Players: Sean Lee, Thomas Davis, Kurt Coleman, Michael Griffin, Nolan Carroll
Last year’s finish and recap- 12th: Josh brought a level of stability to the Packers that the previous GMs (going back to the early days of the NFFL and MFL here, where the Packers that we know now were actually the Jaguars, as the previous JAX GM wanted to switch teams in the move) didn’t seem to provide, winning 6 and 8 games in his only two years despite what looked like a moribund team each pre-season. In 2015, Green Bay started off on a down note, getting throttled by a league-run New York Giants team before returning the favor to the Panthers and Bucs in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively. However, in what would be an early (and at the time unlikely) matchup of playoff teams in Week 4, the Pack didn’t have what it took (despite scoring 146+ points) to take down a Saints team that led the league in points that week. From there, Green Bay handled Atlanta, lost to Pittsburgh and then beat Cincinnati to move the needle above .500 and tie Detroit for the NFC North lead, which they would not relinquish until a Week 11 head-to-head game (that Ryan’s Lions would take). In the mean time, they swallowed down the Ravens, Browns and Vikings while barely breaking a sweat, and after the Detroit loss, resumed their domination with an undoing of Chicago (55+ points) to finish with a solid 8-win campaign. In the first round of the playoffs, however, the Lambeau Crew drew Dave’s Redskins, who looked on a mission in beating the Cheeseheads by over 40 points and bringing their season to an unceremonious end.
Outlook: Offensively, Mike B. steps into a pretty good situation. Assuming health, the quintet of Rivers, Marshall, Moncrief, Barnidge and Williams should at least keep the Packers in most games, but if injury or suspension should occur, there’s not much on the bench in the way of impact players. Defensively, there is both good and bad. The starting unit should be adequate, though projected production along the DL is slight. Names like Sean Lee, Thomas Davis and Kurt Coleman should carry the day for the Packers. Certainly there is depth numbers-wise, but again, minus Bruce Irvin or perhaps Dannell Ellerbe, it’s hard to see any of those players making major contributions. Additionally, Green Bay is currently projected a 0 at K, which will be remedied once he makes a signing, so expect the projected point total to rise slightly when that is taken care of.
X-factor: Depth. On both sides of the ball, depth is the question mark. Certainly Green Bay possesses a good number of elite options on both sides of the ball, but meaningful help at all positions is basically a must headed into the season, and will likely go a long way in determining if Green Bay will venture into the postseason for a second consecutive year.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Minnesota Vikings (Matt)
OFF: 75.46 (53.17 LY)
DEF: 58.91 (55.74 LY)
K: (1.58 LY)
TOTAL: 134.37 15th (110.49 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Andrew Luck, T.J. Yeldon, Carlos Hyde, Randall Cobb, Markus Wheaton, Kenneth Dixon
Defensive Impact Players: Malcolm Jenkins, Brian Cushing, Kevin Minter, Earl Thomas, George Iloka
Last year’s finish and recap- 19th: For the umpteenth consecutive season, Minnesota was primed for a breakout year, only to fall short of expectations (and living up to Erik and I picking them 1st in the North the last two seasons). Injury played the largest part, with Andrew Luck missing most of the year, Carlos Hyde on the sidelines for a good part of the season, Jairus Byrd to IR, and Jordy Nelson’s pre-season injury forcing Randall Cobb into a starring role that perhaps didn’t suit him. That said, Matt’s team hung around for the first two-thirds of the fantasy season (leading the division still through 5 weeks and tying for the division lead after 8 weeks) before his scoring fell off a cliff, losing all of his final four games to finish at 5-7, in last place in the NFC North.
Outlook: Once again, the Vikings APPEAR loaded in their starting lineup, at least on the offensive side of the ball. The depth is more of a concern, especially seeing as how Martavis Bryant will miss the year on suspension for drugs, Isaiah Pead has been a non-factor in his four years in the league (has it really been THAT long!? Minnesota can confirm) and former Tennessee receivers Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson failing to ever break out despite the opportunities (two players that embody this team almost exactly). And of course, the Vikings could certainly expect much more production from Jordan Cameron. Defensively, there is a little more concern, as there isn’t much in the way of a history of production from the linebackers behind Brian Cushing on MIN’s defense, nor is there currently projected an elite DL option on the team. But, the defensive backfield is full of good to near elite DBs, so maybe they can carry the rest of the unit if the offense matches expectations. Additionally, just like Green Bay, Minnesota is currently projected a 0 at K, which will be remedied once he makes a signing, so expect the projected point total to rise slightly once that is out of the way.
X-factor: LB options/offensive depth. Neither of these are backbreakers currently as I see it, but could become important if the Vikings experience another rash of injuries in 2016. Without improvements to these two spots, we’re likely looking at a playoff team making a first or second round exit as currently constructed.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Remember to watch out for the fourth of our divisional previews, this time the NFC West, which should drop at the end of this week/weekend. Thanks again guys.
Continuing with our Divisional Preview series, this week we take a look at the NFC North, a division that produced three playoff teams and the league runner-up in 2015. There is new blood in Mike B. who takes over the Packers, and newish blood in Charlie, who guided the Bears to a somewhat impressive .500 record in his first year in the league, but the two stalwarts of the division, Ryan and Matt return with eyes on the prize, and at least one of them has a legitimate chance to go all the way as currently constructed (Not saying which, but you can guess based on what’s written below). Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Chicago Bears (Charlie)
OFF: 50.15 (60.12 LY)
DEF: 49.07 (46.14 LY)
K: 8.25 (6.83 LY)
TOTAL: 107.47 29th (113.09 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Drew Brees, Chris Ivory, James Jones, DeSean Jackson, Shane Vereen
Defensive Impact Players: Cliff Avril, Greg Hardy, Sheldon Richardson, Jason Pierre-Paul
Last year’s finish and recap- 15th: The Bears got off to a roaring (okay, I know, that’s terrible) start in 2015, going 2-0 against lightweights Indianapolis and Atlanta in the first two weeks before falling to New Orleans by 50+ in Week 3. Chicago got back on the winning side of the ledger in Week 4 with a rout of the Bucs, but it was a one-week remedy, as the Panthers won a low-scoring matchup in Week 5, and two AFC North teams, the Ravens (by 50+ points) and Browns, beat up on CHI the next two weeks, dropping the Bears to under .500 at 3-4. Charlie got his revenge the next two weeks though, beating defending champion Pittsburgh comfortably and curbstomping Cincy by 60 points. Detroit returned the favor in Week 10, romping on the Bears by 40+ to drop Chicago back to 5-5. The Chi town crew managed a close win over the Vikes in Week 11, but were once again beaten severely (by over 50 points) by Green Bay in Week 12 to fall to 6-6 and back into the NFC Playoffs as an 8-seed, where they were promptly drubbed by Seattle in a 2-to-1 point margin. On the year, the Bears gave up ~75 more points than they scored, and in most years that’s not a playoff-worthy team, but all-in-all, Charlie did well in his first year in the league.
Outlook: The offense is very similar to what we saw last year, with Drew Brees running the show and Shane Vereen, DeSean Jackson and Chris Ivory mixing in. For the second-straight year, James Jones being signed by a team is a concern, but provided he is and has an actual role, he could supply some value. The depth, however, on that side of the ball is just not there. Right now it counts only Knile Davis and four rookie skill position players, none of which are likely to play big fantasy role this year. Defensively, the Bears have some work to do. Currently (rookies included) Chicago has six defensive linemen, a number that Charlie might want to pare down to trade for offense or more defensive impact players. Part of the reason that the Bears are projected to drop nearly 15 points is the fact that two offensive starters currently are penciled in for zeroes, as is every current defensive bench player. That obviously won’t be the case, but a decrease in points does make sense given the fantasy ceilings of these defenders.
X-factor: Depth. This is the first team for which overall depth (or lack thereof) really stands out, and it’s stated. If Charlie wants to compete in the North and go back to the playoffs, it probably depends on how much quality depth he can bring in before too long.
Projected division finish: 4th
Detroit Lions (Ryan)
OFF: 75.85 (69.23 LY)
DEF: 78.52 (65.6 LY)
K: 11.31 (8.17 LY)
TOTAL: 165.68 5th (143.00 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Cam Newton, Lamar Miller, Tyler Eifert, Kelvin Benjamin
Defensive Impact Players: Luke Kuechly, Reshad Jones, Bobby Wagner, Jordan Hicks, Barry Church, Antoine Bethea
Last year’s finish and recap- 2nd: Despite a 0-1 start after losing to an elite Buffalo Bills team (Yes, Joe Flacco-elite), Detroit ripped off three wins (by large margins) in a row before New Orleans ended the run emphatically. Detroit tied for the division lead the next week with a comfortable win over Cincinnati, but was dropped back to Earth in Week 7 in a 30+ point loss to Pittsburgh. At 4-3, the Lions’ season was at a crossroads, but in Weeks 8, 9 and 10, Detroit thrashed Cleveland, eviscerated Baltimore (by over 130) and pummeled Chicago by over 40. But even after that, through 10 weeks, Ryan was still unable to shake Green Bay, who had been tied for the Division lead with him since Week 7. That all ended in Week 11, when the Lions comfortably dispatched of the Pack by 40+, setting up a Week 12 win over Minnesota to win the division by a game at 9-3. In the opening round of the playoffs, Ryan knocked the poop out of Aaron’s Cowboys (Poop? It’s called the Waterboy, watch it sometime), beat up on Dave’s Redskins, and finished off Philly for the chance to play Jacksonville in the Super Bowl and put his 8-game winning streak on the line…minus Odell Beckham Jr. (who got suspended at the worst time for fantasy owners). Ryan still maintains that with ODBJ in his lineup, he would have defeated JAX, and it’s tough to argue that he wouldn’t have (the final score was 156.64-152.13 in favor of JAX). At any rate, Ryan finished 2nd (which somehow equals last if you listen to Ricky Bobby’s dad) overall and will be in pursuit of the whole thing this year.
Outlook: Gone is Odell Beckham Jr. and a whole cast of others, but in their place return Tyler Eifert, Bobby Wagner, Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess and Jordan Hicks. Given that news, it’s hard not to say Detroit is an improved team entering 2016, especially defensively, where they look like one of the absolute juggernauts in the league. But one area I see need for improvement in is the receiving corps. Granted, Ryan grabbed perhaps the two top options in Carolina’s passing attack, but the Panthers’ offense is traditionally one of the run-heaviest in the league. Beyond that, there’s only one other receiver on the roster, (T.J. Jones) and he likely just got boxed out of any meaningful playing time by the signing of Anquan Boldin. So work must be done there. Defensively, every position is solid with depth, but adding another DL or two could be crucial if either one of the Lions’ current two linemen were to go down, or if Vinny Curry is classified as a LB again this year. At any rate, this is a strong team, if incomplete, and I trust Ryan to make those corrections before the beginning of the year. I’m not making the same mistakes three times.
X-factor: WR depth. Again, as stated above, behind Carolina’s top-two, the cupboard is bare for Ryan. We’ll wait to see what he does, but this has to be addressed.
Projected division finish: 1st
Green Bay Packers (Mike B)
OFF: 71.66 (49.68 LY)
DEF: 65.51 (63.28 LY)
K: 9.5 (5.25 LY)
TOTAL: 146.67 8th (118.21 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Philip Rivers, Brandon Marshall, DeAngelo Williams, Gary Barnidge, Donte Moncrief
Defensive Impact Players: Sean Lee, Thomas Davis, Kurt Coleman, Michael Griffin, Nolan Carroll
Last year’s finish and recap- 12th: Josh brought a level of stability to the Packers that the previous GMs (going back to the early days of the NFFL and MFL here, where the Packers that we know now were actually the Jaguars, as the previous JAX GM wanted to switch teams in the move) didn’t seem to provide, winning 6 and 8 games in his only two years despite what looked like a moribund team each pre-season. In 2015, Green Bay started off on a down note, getting throttled by a league-run New York Giants team before returning the favor to the Panthers and Bucs in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively. However, in what would be an early (and at the time unlikely) matchup of playoff teams in Week 4, the Pack didn’t have what it took (despite scoring 146+ points) to take down a Saints team that led the league in points that week. From there, Green Bay handled Atlanta, lost to Pittsburgh and then beat Cincinnati to move the needle above .500 and tie Detroit for the NFC North lead, which they would not relinquish until a Week 11 head-to-head game (that Ryan’s Lions would take). In the mean time, they swallowed down the Ravens, Browns and Vikings while barely breaking a sweat, and after the Detroit loss, resumed their domination with an undoing of Chicago (55+ points) to finish with a solid 8-win campaign. In the first round of the playoffs, however, the Lambeau Crew drew Dave’s Redskins, who looked on a mission in beating the Cheeseheads by over 40 points and bringing their season to an unceremonious end.
Outlook: Offensively, Mike B. steps into a pretty good situation. Assuming health, the quintet of Rivers, Marshall, Moncrief, Barnidge and Williams should at least keep the Packers in most games, but if injury or suspension should occur, there’s not much on the bench in the way of impact players. Defensively, there is both good and bad. The starting unit should be adequate, though projected production along the DL is slight. Names like Sean Lee, Thomas Davis and Kurt Coleman should carry the day for the Packers. Certainly there is depth numbers-wise, but again, minus Bruce Irvin or perhaps Dannell Ellerbe, it’s hard to see any of those players making major contributions. Additionally, Green Bay is currently projected a 0 at K, which will be remedied once he makes a signing, so expect the projected point total to rise slightly when that is taken care of.
X-factor: Depth. On both sides of the ball, depth is the question mark. Certainly Green Bay possesses a good number of elite options on both sides of the ball, but meaningful help at all positions is basically a must headed into the season, and will likely go a long way in determining if Green Bay will venture into the postseason for a second consecutive year.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Minnesota Vikings (Matt)
OFF: 75.46 (53.17 LY)
DEF: 58.91 (55.74 LY)
K: (1.58 LY)
TOTAL: 134.37 15th (110.49 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Andrew Luck, T.J. Yeldon, Carlos Hyde, Randall Cobb, Markus Wheaton, Kenneth Dixon
Defensive Impact Players: Malcolm Jenkins, Brian Cushing, Kevin Minter, Earl Thomas, George Iloka
Last year’s finish and recap- 19th: For the umpteenth consecutive season, Minnesota was primed for a breakout year, only to fall short of expectations (and living up to Erik and I picking them 1st in the North the last two seasons). Injury played the largest part, with Andrew Luck missing most of the year, Carlos Hyde on the sidelines for a good part of the season, Jairus Byrd to IR, and Jordy Nelson’s pre-season injury forcing Randall Cobb into a starring role that perhaps didn’t suit him. That said, Matt’s team hung around for the first two-thirds of the fantasy season (leading the division still through 5 weeks and tying for the division lead after 8 weeks) before his scoring fell off a cliff, losing all of his final four games to finish at 5-7, in last place in the NFC North.
Outlook: Once again, the Vikings APPEAR loaded in their starting lineup, at least on the offensive side of the ball. The depth is more of a concern, especially seeing as how Martavis Bryant will miss the year on suspension for drugs, Isaiah Pead has been a non-factor in his four years in the league (has it really been THAT long!? Minnesota can confirm) and former Tennessee receivers Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson failing to ever break out despite the opportunities (two players that embody this team almost exactly). And of course, the Vikings could certainly expect much more production from Jordan Cameron. Defensively, there is a little more concern, as there isn’t much in the way of a history of production from the linebackers behind Brian Cushing on MIN’s defense, nor is there currently projected an elite DL option on the team. But, the defensive backfield is full of good to near elite DBs, so maybe they can carry the rest of the unit if the offense matches expectations. Additionally, just like Green Bay, Minnesota is currently projected a 0 at K, which will be remedied once he makes a signing, so expect the projected point total to rise slightly once that is out of the way.
X-factor: LB options/offensive depth. Neither of these are backbreakers currently as I see it, but could become important if the Vikings experience another rash of injuries in 2016. Without improvements to these two spots, we’re likely looking at a playoff team making a first or second round exit as currently constructed.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Remember to watch out for the fourth of our divisional previews, this time the NFC West, which should drop at the end of this week/weekend. Thanks again guys.