Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Jul 2, 2019 2:31:16 GMT -5
NFC SOUTH
The NFC South produced three playoff teams last year, a first for the division. And while neither Carolina, nor New Orleans, appeared to be the superteams they were in seasons/postseasons past, Atlanta and Tampa Bay entering the fracas as playoff teams bode well for the division’s long-term health and competitiveness. In years past, this would’ve been either Justin or Vic’s division, but now it’s more up for grabs (Hence why we handicapped it near the middle of the division races). Can Justin win the division and make it an impressive 3-out-of-4 like the Warriors? Or will 2019 be his Achilles’ heel? Can the Falcons maintain their momentum that took them to the postseason, and their highest finish sine 2014? Can Caleb and Fred capitalize where Mike and Vic did not (The lineup page)? What secrets will the NFC South reveal in 2019? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Atlanta Falcons (Ryan)
Last year’s finish: 15th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Admission time—I picked the Falcons to finish 4th in the NFC South last year (After two-straight bottom-two finishes, who could blame me?), and said that he could contend for a playoff spot as early as 2019. Well, all Ryan did was prove me wrong, by finishing 2nd in the division, and nabbing the 7th seed in the NFC. So now it’s time to eat crow. And now that I’ve done that, let me proceed to tell you why the Falcons’ are poised to take a step back this year. We’ll start on the offensive side. Aaron Rodgers may go down one day as the best offensive player in league history. He did, however, for the first time in 2018, take a step back (Granted with a young and injury-depleted receiving corps). If he does so again under offensive wunderkind Matt LaFleur, we’ll know it’s more than one down year. Leonard Fournette was repeatedly injured and pissing off the Jaguars’ management in 2018, so much so that this off-season, they voided the remaining guarantees off of his deal…and he’s been in the league only two years. At any rate, they drafted him a productive (In college) handcuff in Ryquell Armstead, and from seeing him up close, he has no value in the passing game, and is only an early down player. So if he slips up again, Fournette could be dunzo in Jacksonville. Either way, he’s going to lose some touches this year, assuming he can stay healthy and/or not get suspended again. What a difference a year can make. Thankfully, Ryan made a smart move and drafted Darrell Henderson, who should see some run in L.A. given Todd Gurley’s knee condition (I think…it’s impossible to read the Rams’ tea leaves on Gurley), even if it’s just maintenance carries. He also has Frank Gore, but he’s part of a four-headed tandem in Buffalo, who already has a QB whose predilection is to run. So he’s unlikely to retain much value. Similarly, the receiving corps is full of players whose roles have diminished—Nelson Agholor, Rashard Higgins, Ian Thomas, Marcell Ateman, Chris Conley, and J.J. Nelson. The only receiver who’s role is likely to stay the same or increase is D.J. Chark, but even with him, Marquise Lee’s return seriously caps much of any added value from 2018. Trey Burton is a solid tight end option though. On defense, it’s possible that Atlanta has actually regressed from 2018. On the defensive line, Fletcher Cox and Olivier Vernon lead the way, and both should be solid at a minimum. But behind them are the trio of Randy Gregory (Suspended), Dion Jordan (Suspended and not on a team), and Anthony Zettel (Has averaged 1.4 PPG or fewer in two-of-his-three seasons, including 1.3 PPG last year). At linebacker, outside of Demario Davis, there’s only Harold Landry, who averaged 4.9 PPG as a rookie, Dre Greenlaw (The 49ers third-string MLB), and Stephone Anthony (Not on a team). That spot HAS to improve for the Falcons to have any chance of a winning season. Defensive back is in okay shape, with the trio of Eddie Jackson, Marcus Williams, and Ricardo Allen, but overall the unit is shaky, and it’s solidly in the bottom half.
X-factor: LB and WR talent. Atlanta is short on talent at these two positions, and an influx would definitely help them realize the considerable potential of other areas on the roster (Namely QB, RB, and DB). If Ryan can supplement those positions, then I’m going to be eating crow again this time next year. If not…
Projected division finish: 4th
Carolina Panthers (Justin)
Last year’s finish: 7th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: It’s hard to envision a 7th place finish as a disappointment, but based on the year Justin had a season ago (And the ones leading up to it), it certainly felt like one. That said, he has regrouped, and fortified his team with some interesting moves (And so far, they’ve proven to be good). Granted the regular season is still far away, but it sure looks like Justin’s trade of Marcus Mariota, and Jordans Howard and Poyer for Carson Wentz and Keelan Cole, with Arizona, was highway robbery. In addition to the formidable Wentz, the Panthers sport Ezekiel Elliott, Odell Beckham Jr., Robert Woods, Evan Engram, and Kareem Hunt (Provided he doesn’t keep kicking women or getting in trouble at bars) to round out their starting lineup. On star power alone, it’s hard to top this lineup. While Hunt won’t be ready until mid-season, Justin has some quality fill-ins, with resident short person Ito Smith, and Geronimo Allison. While Ty Montgomery, Keelan Cole, and other resident criminal Alex Collins, have been supporting players at worst in years prior, presently, it does not look like any are ticketed for a fantasy-relevant role in 2019, and are effectively dead weight. Defensively, it’s clear that Carolina is working within the limitations of what it has (Considering how much capital was devoted to putting that superlative offense in place). On the defensive line, Grady Jarrett continues to get better, and is one of the best fantasy DL, especially for the interior, that there is. It was just another astute pickup that Justin made. Sam Hubbard also joins after a solid rookie year. Though Vita Vea missed parts of his rookie season with injury, he still was a top pick, and is long on theoretical talent. While the duo of Lavonte David and Vince Williams should be solid, the remaining linebackers are comprised of Jordan Evans (Who was in line to start prior to the Bengals’ drafting of Germaine Pratt), Deone Bucannon, and Josh Jones (Assuming he is moved there per the Packers’ wishes, or cut). In the secondary, the Panthers sport a fearsome foursome, with Tyrann Mathieu, Eric Reid, Clayton Geathers, and T.J. McDonald. It’s the best overall unit for the Panthers, and maybe where Justin should look to trade from to reinforce his offensive bench. Overall it’s a good defensive unit, but one where it’s clear that Justin prioritized taking a shot on talent with several gambles. Whether or not it pays off will probably determine how far he goes in 2019.
X-factor: Offensive depth/LB depth. Carolina has plenty of talent in its starting lineup, but cannot count on the starting unit to play every game. Especially offensively, but also at linebacker, there are deficiencies that need to be solved, so that should anything happen, Carolina doesn’t veer off course.
Projected division finish: 1st
New Orleans Saints (Fred)
Last year’s finish: 23rd (Division: 4th)
Outlook: New Orleans was nowhere near as bad as where they finished a year ago, but as part of his going away present, Vic traded away his first round pick (Which ended up being 10th overall), and refused to set his lineup. That cost the Saints some games, and consequently, resulted in his being booted from the league. Now Fred steps in, after a full off-season of inactivity by the original replacement, Austin Flake (Who by the way, paid our league fee on his way out—so, thanks to him for that). The Saints have considerable talent to work with, but just as they have for the last few seasons, have one of the most ungodly overloads of offense re: roster construction in league history. Josh Allen returns at QB, and should be better in his second year. Now split up in real life, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman form a potent 1-2 combo, perhaps even more so as both are expected to be their team’s lead backs. Receiver is in good shape as well, with Jarvis Landry and Mike Williams manning the spot. Backup Deon Cain is also in the fold, after missing last year with an injury. Jakeem Grant may also provide some value, as might rookie Riley Ridley, who Fred scooped up in the 2nd Round. Beyond those players, the other eight offensive players carry little to no value. I suppose that could change when/if Jay Ajayi signs, or with an injury to Gerald Everett with the Rams (Of which, presumably Tyler Higbee would be the beneficiary). Otherwise, Fred needs to get to trading or cutting the majority of those players to free up some much needed cap, and roster space for which to fill defensive players—of which he has nine (10 if you count his unsigned rookie, whom he doesn’t have space for presently). Mario Addison and Denico Autry man the defensive line, and they should be a solid twosome at worst. Unfortunately, they are the only two DL on the roster. Anthony Hitchens, Nigel Bradham, and Reggie Ragland should be a good threesome at linebacker. Unfortunately, those are the only three such LBs on the roster. Justin Simmons, Tashaun Gipson, and Tedric Thompson should be a fine threesome in the defensive backfield as well…however, outside of Ron Parker (Who isn’t on a team)…don’t make me say it. The point is, there is a very serious roster imbalance that needs to be dealt with here, and it’s gone unfixed for years. If Fred is able to make some offense for defense trades around the periphery of his roster, watch out, as this team could be as deadly as it was two years ago when Vic rode a pretty good team and good streak of luck to a NFC Championship Game. It’s probably too soon for Fred to pose that kind of threat, but again, there is plenty of talent on this roster, it just needs to be surrounded by some depth—particularly on defense.
X-factor: Balance (For the second year in a row). The overload of offensive players, talent and numbers-wise, is bankrupting the defense. More must be done to even out the sides of the ball, or Fred will be in for a similar fate as Vic was last year.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Caleb)
Last year’s finish: 16th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: For the first time in a half decade, Tampa Bay made the playoffs in 2018—no thanks to Mike, who despite drafting Jared Goff and Saquon Barkley in back-to-back years (Picking really high every year will help make you look good there), also never got on, and never set his lineup (Attempting to start as few as seven players in a game last year). After he gave a snarky retort in refusing to admit his inattention and proclivity to not set his lineup, he was replaced by Caleb. Despite finishing middle of the pack last year, and not having a top of the round pick, Caleb has made some very good moves on the surface (His shot in the dark on a now clearly retired Rob Gronkowski notwithstanding). The offense should once again be a sparkplug, behind Goff and Barkley, several players are waiting in the wings to finally have a big impact. James Washington, who scuffled as a rookie, should be in line for a much bigger role in Pittsburgh after Antonio Brown’s departure. In addition to him, Caleb’s pick Deebo Samuel should be able to add some value all over the field—provided he isn’t injured. A trio of Marquise Goodwin, D’Onta Foreman (Who it already feels like we’ve been talking about forever), and Travis Benjamin are good enough to hold the Bucs over at the RWT position. Chad Williams, as was reported yesterday, may not be guaranteed a roster spot though. Kyle Rudolph returns at tight end, and is solid. Will Dissly could go a long way to show his performance last year wasn’t an outlier before he got injured, and Darren Waller may also have a larger role in a wide-open OAK TE corps. It’s an offense that’s definitely on the rise, and should be a lot of fun to track. Defensively, it’s also better than a year ago. That is where credit is due to Mike, as he drafted many of the defense’s best players late in the Rookie Draft a year ago, including Jessie Bates, Oren Burks, Dorian O’Daniel, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. That’s a phenomenal hit rate in those later rounds, as all four of those players should have key roles for their respective teams, and this defense, in year-2. DeMarcus Lawrence and Sheldon Rankins should be a highly-effective tandem on the defensive line, though having more than two players would be ideal here. Preston Brown, Foyesade Oluokun, and rookies Will Barton and David Long round out the linebacking group. Outside of the top-four, there’s unlikely to be any significant roles in year-1. Outside of Bates and Fitzpatrick, the only relevant members of the secondary are Will Parks (And only if he beats out Su’a Cravens for the Broncos’ starting safety spot), and Brian Poole, who plays nickel corner. Overall, it’s a VASTLY improved unit, which still probably sits around middle of the pack. That says a lot for a roster that has really come a long way in the last year.
X-factor: Defensive depth. While the Bucs did make the playoffs last year, they were frankly lucky to do so, as Dallas probably had the better team, and also threw a game last year that would have guaranteed them the spot. Instead, the Bucs backed in at 5-7. But health provided, and if Caleb will set his lineup (Where Mike fell short), it’s entirely possible that Tampa Bay is solidly in the NFC playoff field, and not sneaking in as the 8-seed.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Remember to watch out for the fourth of our divisional previews, this time the NFC East, which should drop in the next few days. Thanks again guys.
The NFC South produced three playoff teams last year, a first for the division. And while neither Carolina, nor New Orleans, appeared to be the superteams they were in seasons/postseasons past, Atlanta and Tampa Bay entering the fracas as playoff teams bode well for the division’s long-term health and competitiveness. In years past, this would’ve been either Justin or Vic’s division, but now it’s more up for grabs (Hence why we handicapped it near the middle of the division races). Can Justin win the division and make it an impressive 3-out-of-4 like the Warriors? Or will 2019 be his Achilles’ heel? Can the Falcons maintain their momentum that took them to the postseason, and their highest finish sine 2014? Can Caleb and Fred capitalize where Mike and Vic did not (The lineup page)? What secrets will the NFC South reveal in 2019? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Atlanta Falcons (Ryan)
Last year’s finish: 15th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Admission time—I picked the Falcons to finish 4th in the NFC South last year (After two-straight bottom-two finishes, who could blame me?), and said that he could contend for a playoff spot as early as 2019. Well, all Ryan did was prove me wrong, by finishing 2nd in the division, and nabbing the 7th seed in the NFC. So now it’s time to eat crow. And now that I’ve done that, let me proceed to tell you why the Falcons’ are poised to take a step back this year. We’ll start on the offensive side. Aaron Rodgers may go down one day as the best offensive player in league history. He did, however, for the first time in 2018, take a step back (Granted with a young and injury-depleted receiving corps). If he does so again under offensive wunderkind Matt LaFleur, we’ll know it’s more than one down year. Leonard Fournette was repeatedly injured and pissing off the Jaguars’ management in 2018, so much so that this off-season, they voided the remaining guarantees off of his deal…and he’s been in the league only two years. At any rate, they drafted him a productive (In college) handcuff in Ryquell Armstead, and from seeing him up close, he has no value in the passing game, and is only an early down player. So if he slips up again, Fournette could be dunzo in Jacksonville. Either way, he’s going to lose some touches this year, assuming he can stay healthy and/or not get suspended again. What a difference a year can make. Thankfully, Ryan made a smart move and drafted Darrell Henderson, who should see some run in L.A. given Todd Gurley’s knee condition (I think…it’s impossible to read the Rams’ tea leaves on Gurley), even if it’s just maintenance carries. He also has Frank Gore, but he’s part of a four-headed tandem in Buffalo, who already has a QB whose predilection is to run. So he’s unlikely to retain much value. Similarly, the receiving corps is full of players whose roles have diminished—Nelson Agholor, Rashard Higgins, Ian Thomas, Marcell Ateman, Chris Conley, and J.J. Nelson. The only receiver who’s role is likely to stay the same or increase is D.J. Chark, but even with him, Marquise Lee’s return seriously caps much of any added value from 2018. Trey Burton is a solid tight end option though. On defense, it’s possible that Atlanta has actually regressed from 2018. On the defensive line, Fletcher Cox and Olivier Vernon lead the way, and both should be solid at a minimum. But behind them are the trio of Randy Gregory (Suspended), Dion Jordan (Suspended and not on a team), and Anthony Zettel (Has averaged 1.4 PPG or fewer in two-of-his-three seasons, including 1.3 PPG last year). At linebacker, outside of Demario Davis, there’s only Harold Landry, who averaged 4.9 PPG as a rookie, Dre Greenlaw (The 49ers third-string MLB), and Stephone Anthony (Not on a team). That spot HAS to improve for the Falcons to have any chance of a winning season. Defensive back is in okay shape, with the trio of Eddie Jackson, Marcus Williams, and Ricardo Allen, but overall the unit is shaky, and it’s solidly in the bottom half.
X-factor: LB and WR talent. Atlanta is short on talent at these two positions, and an influx would definitely help them realize the considerable potential of other areas on the roster (Namely QB, RB, and DB). If Ryan can supplement those positions, then I’m going to be eating crow again this time next year. If not…
Projected division finish: 4th
Carolina Panthers (Justin)
Last year’s finish: 7th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: It’s hard to envision a 7th place finish as a disappointment, but based on the year Justin had a season ago (And the ones leading up to it), it certainly felt like one. That said, he has regrouped, and fortified his team with some interesting moves (And so far, they’ve proven to be good). Granted the regular season is still far away, but it sure looks like Justin’s trade of Marcus Mariota, and Jordans Howard and Poyer for Carson Wentz and Keelan Cole, with Arizona, was highway robbery. In addition to the formidable Wentz, the Panthers sport Ezekiel Elliott, Odell Beckham Jr., Robert Woods, Evan Engram, and Kareem Hunt (Provided he doesn’t keep kicking women or getting in trouble at bars) to round out their starting lineup. On star power alone, it’s hard to top this lineup. While Hunt won’t be ready until mid-season, Justin has some quality fill-ins, with resident short person Ito Smith, and Geronimo Allison. While Ty Montgomery, Keelan Cole, and other resident criminal Alex Collins, have been supporting players at worst in years prior, presently, it does not look like any are ticketed for a fantasy-relevant role in 2019, and are effectively dead weight. Defensively, it’s clear that Carolina is working within the limitations of what it has (Considering how much capital was devoted to putting that superlative offense in place). On the defensive line, Grady Jarrett continues to get better, and is one of the best fantasy DL, especially for the interior, that there is. It was just another astute pickup that Justin made. Sam Hubbard also joins after a solid rookie year. Though Vita Vea missed parts of his rookie season with injury, he still was a top pick, and is long on theoretical talent. While the duo of Lavonte David and Vince Williams should be solid, the remaining linebackers are comprised of Jordan Evans (Who was in line to start prior to the Bengals’ drafting of Germaine Pratt), Deone Bucannon, and Josh Jones (Assuming he is moved there per the Packers’ wishes, or cut). In the secondary, the Panthers sport a fearsome foursome, with Tyrann Mathieu, Eric Reid, Clayton Geathers, and T.J. McDonald. It’s the best overall unit for the Panthers, and maybe where Justin should look to trade from to reinforce his offensive bench. Overall it’s a good defensive unit, but one where it’s clear that Justin prioritized taking a shot on talent with several gambles. Whether or not it pays off will probably determine how far he goes in 2019.
X-factor: Offensive depth/LB depth. Carolina has plenty of talent in its starting lineup, but cannot count on the starting unit to play every game. Especially offensively, but also at linebacker, there are deficiencies that need to be solved, so that should anything happen, Carolina doesn’t veer off course.
Projected division finish: 1st
New Orleans Saints (Fred)
Last year’s finish: 23rd (Division: 4th)
Outlook: New Orleans was nowhere near as bad as where they finished a year ago, but as part of his going away present, Vic traded away his first round pick (Which ended up being 10th overall), and refused to set his lineup. That cost the Saints some games, and consequently, resulted in his being booted from the league. Now Fred steps in, after a full off-season of inactivity by the original replacement, Austin Flake (Who by the way, paid our league fee on his way out—so, thanks to him for that). The Saints have considerable talent to work with, but just as they have for the last few seasons, have one of the most ungodly overloads of offense re: roster construction in league history. Josh Allen returns at QB, and should be better in his second year. Now split up in real life, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman form a potent 1-2 combo, perhaps even more so as both are expected to be their team’s lead backs. Receiver is in good shape as well, with Jarvis Landry and Mike Williams manning the spot. Backup Deon Cain is also in the fold, after missing last year with an injury. Jakeem Grant may also provide some value, as might rookie Riley Ridley, who Fred scooped up in the 2nd Round. Beyond those players, the other eight offensive players carry little to no value. I suppose that could change when/if Jay Ajayi signs, or with an injury to Gerald Everett with the Rams (Of which, presumably Tyler Higbee would be the beneficiary). Otherwise, Fred needs to get to trading or cutting the majority of those players to free up some much needed cap, and roster space for which to fill defensive players—of which he has nine (10 if you count his unsigned rookie, whom he doesn’t have space for presently). Mario Addison and Denico Autry man the defensive line, and they should be a solid twosome at worst. Unfortunately, they are the only two DL on the roster. Anthony Hitchens, Nigel Bradham, and Reggie Ragland should be a good threesome at linebacker. Unfortunately, those are the only three such LBs on the roster. Justin Simmons, Tashaun Gipson, and Tedric Thompson should be a fine threesome in the defensive backfield as well…however, outside of Ron Parker (Who isn’t on a team)…don’t make me say it. The point is, there is a very serious roster imbalance that needs to be dealt with here, and it’s gone unfixed for years. If Fred is able to make some offense for defense trades around the periphery of his roster, watch out, as this team could be as deadly as it was two years ago when Vic rode a pretty good team and good streak of luck to a NFC Championship Game. It’s probably too soon for Fred to pose that kind of threat, but again, there is plenty of talent on this roster, it just needs to be surrounded by some depth—particularly on defense.
X-factor: Balance (For the second year in a row). The overload of offensive players, talent and numbers-wise, is bankrupting the defense. More must be done to even out the sides of the ball, or Fred will be in for a similar fate as Vic was last year.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Caleb)
Last year’s finish: 16th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: For the first time in a half decade, Tampa Bay made the playoffs in 2018—no thanks to Mike, who despite drafting Jared Goff and Saquon Barkley in back-to-back years (Picking really high every year will help make you look good there), also never got on, and never set his lineup (Attempting to start as few as seven players in a game last year). After he gave a snarky retort in refusing to admit his inattention and proclivity to not set his lineup, he was replaced by Caleb. Despite finishing middle of the pack last year, and not having a top of the round pick, Caleb has made some very good moves on the surface (His shot in the dark on a now clearly retired Rob Gronkowski notwithstanding). The offense should once again be a sparkplug, behind Goff and Barkley, several players are waiting in the wings to finally have a big impact. James Washington, who scuffled as a rookie, should be in line for a much bigger role in Pittsburgh after Antonio Brown’s departure. In addition to him, Caleb’s pick Deebo Samuel should be able to add some value all over the field—provided he isn’t injured. A trio of Marquise Goodwin, D’Onta Foreman (Who it already feels like we’ve been talking about forever), and Travis Benjamin are good enough to hold the Bucs over at the RWT position. Chad Williams, as was reported yesterday, may not be guaranteed a roster spot though. Kyle Rudolph returns at tight end, and is solid. Will Dissly could go a long way to show his performance last year wasn’t an outlier before he got injured, and Darren Waller may also have a larger role in a wide-open OAK TE corps. It’s an offense that’s definitely on the rise, and should be a lot of fun to track. Defensively, it’s also better than a year ago. That is where credit is due to Mike, as he drafted many of the defense’s best players late in the Rookie Draft a year ago, including Jessie Bates, Oren Burks, Dorian O’Daniel, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. That’s a phenomenal hit rate in those later rounds, as all four of those players should have key roles for their respective teams, and this defense, in year-2. DeMarcus Lawrence and Sheldon Rankins should be a highly-effective tandem on the defensive line, though having more than two players would be ideal here. Preston Brown, Foyesade Oluokun, and rookies Will Barton and David Long round out the linebacking group. Outside of the top-four, there’s unlikely to be any significant roles in year-1. Outside of Bates and Fitzpatrick, the only relevant members of the secondary are Will Parks (And only if he beats out Su’a Cravens for the Broncos’ starting safety spot), and Brian Poole, who plays nickel corner. Overall, it’s a VASTLY improved unit, which still probably sits around middle of the pack. That says a lot for a roster that has really come a long way in the last year.
X-factor: Defensive depth. While the Bucs did make the playoffs last year, they were frankly lucky to do so, as Dallas probably had the better team, and also threw a game last year that would have guaranteed them the spot. Instead, the Bucs backed in at 5-7. But health provided, and if Caleb will set his lineup (Where Mike fell short), it’s entirely possible that Tampa Bay is solidly in the NFC playoff field, and not sneaking in as the 8-seed.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Remember to watch out for the fourth of our divisional previews, this time the NFC East, which should drop in the next few days. Thanks again guys.