Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Jun 27, 2019 17:58:31 GMT -5
AFC SOUTH
Next up on the list, we look in on the AFC South, the division that produced an 11-win team, and a Super Bowl runner-up—separately in 2018. While the top of the division should play out the same, there are some interesting storylines to consider in 2019 and going forward. For instance, can the Jags repeat their 11-1 season, or even shoot for history at 12-0? Is Ryan good enough to get back to the AFC Championship Game for the third-straight year? Can J.R. get over the hump and finally make the playoffs? And can Erik continue to creep along, accumulate assets, and buck the division order? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Houston Texans (Ryan)
Last year’s finish: 2nd (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Through two years in the league, Ryan has a record of 20-8, has won his division, gone to the AFC Championship in both years, winning it and advancing to the Super Bowl a year ago. First off, that’s a pretty impressive résumé over one’s first two years. Secondly, Ryan’s going to face an uphill battle to continue that run of success this year. Beset by untenable salaries, no draft capital, and perhaps the unluckiest offseason since Cincinnati’s 2014-2015 (In which three starting LBs that he re-signed retired), Ryan has his work seriously cut out for him. It started off when he chose not to re-sign Michael Crabtree or Alex Collins (Totally defensible considering that neither has a team, and Collins is facing serious prison time), and continued when JPP crashed his car and broke his neck. The coup de grâce was completed when Telvin Smith decided to take a mini-retirement, right after Ryan had spent 3 re-signing years on him. While it’s hard to bet against a team with Tom Brady, DeAndre Hopkins, and Nick Chubb as its offensive core, beyond that, it’s pretty bare bones (With every other player’s role lessening after free agency and the draft), without a lot of readily-apparent ways to improve (Short of offloading 2020 picks). Defensively, the Texans still sport Eric Kendricks, De’Vondre Campbell, Jonathan Allen, Von Bell, and James Bradberry, there’s similarly a lack of quality depth behind them.
X-factor: Offensive and Defensive depth. The high-upside members of this team mean that both units could finish on the right side of the middle of the pack, but it’s hard to believe, short of some major acquisitions, that Ryan will be able to repeat the successes of his first two years, and make it back to the playoffs in 2019. And if he is seriously committed to a rebuild instead of pushing for contention, as rumors have it, then I think he’ll fall short of that mark.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Indianapolis Colts (J.R.)
Last year’s finish: 22nd (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: J.R.’s Colts may have taken a step backward in 2018 (Finishing 4-8 after a 6-6 record the year previous), but the core of his team is still there (Winston, Mixon, Peterson, and Josh Doctson), and he has made some serious additions this offseason to reinforce some previously weak areas. He used his significant trove of draft picks to select Parris Campbell, and Miles Boykin, both of whom could be his starting WRs as soon as Week 1. Additionally, he added Josh Oliver, who looks like he may have the inside track to landing the top-job in Jacksonville’s TE corps as a rookie. Despite the fact that he also re-upped Jesse James to one of the biggest TE contracts in the league--only to see him relegated to second-team duties--J.R., a paragon of cap space, can more than absorb that blow financially, and now has a decent backup option there, at a minimum. Defensively, as always, there is still work to do. Nobody on the entire unit stands out as an impact player, and only two defensive players on the roster averaged 8 PPG or more last year--DeForest Buckner and Denzel Ward—two players at non-premium positions, and therefore subject to much more variation from year-to-year. There’s only one starting inside linebacker—B.J. Goodson—and he’s been one of the most chronically injured players in the league. The unit averaged just 45 PPG last year, so despite the addition of three other players (Via the Rookie Draft) likely to score some points this year--in Ben Banogu, Greedy Williams, and DeAndre Baker—they fit the mold of the rest of the defense: Solid at best, and do not play at a premium position. If he wants to be the team that scored 200+ in Week 1 last year in the long-term, he’s going to have to goose that side of the ball a little bit.
X-factor: Defense. If J.R. can make some savvy moves in free agency to boost the defense, we could finally, at long last, be looking at a playoff team in Indy (Which would be the franchise’s first since the league began, the only one who has still yet to make the postseason).
Projected division finish: 2nd
Jacksonville Jaguars (Jordan)
Last year’s finish: 6th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: The class of the division--and maybe the AFC—Jordan has yet to lose a division game in his three years in the league, and even if that streak should be broken this year, it shouldn’t derail him from taking the South once again in a cakewalk. Offensively, the Jaguars are as potent as any team in the league, behind Russell Wilson, David Johnson, Antonio Brown, James Conner, Tyler Boyd, Austin Hooper, Mohamed Sanu, and presumably, last year’s #2 pick in the Rookie Draft, Derrius Guice. While he may have some holes to fill with depth at receiver--especially if his top-rookie pick (Andy Isabella) doesn’t take off right away--this is likely the best starting offense this side of Seattle. Defensively, returning is Kwon Alexander, who missed significant time a year ago with injury, as well as Jayon Brown, Kenny Young, and Kyzir White at LB. Jordan also added Josey Jewell, who may take over as the lead ILB for Denver, to that group, as well as potential starter, rookie Quincy Williams. He also returns standout John Johnson ay DB, headlining a group that is otherwise average on paper, but has the potential to exceed that if things break right—like rookie safety Darnell Savage, who Jordan looted late in the draft. Additionally, Jordan made an upgrade on the defensive line, acquiring Jerry Hughes to replace Markus Golden, in what should be a net positive. While there is some reason for concern if several of those parties don’t end up having the role they are projected for, offense will win the day, and it’s not like the defense isn’t good enough on its own.
X-factor: Defense and Health. To repeat my X-factor from last year: “It’s no state secret where Jacksonville’s faults lie. No doubt Jordan will be in the market all season long to try to upgrade this unit. If he can, he may in fact be the top-seed in all the AFC. If he can’t…he still likely has enough to get by Ryan’s Texans. This offense is just too good, with too many options, not to hit on enough big games from said options, and to drop 70 or more on a team every week. If Jordan manages to meet or even exceed my proclamation, he’s going to do very well for himself this year.” I think that still does the job for this year as well. Oh, and also, health.
Projected division finish: 1st
Tennessee Titans (Erik)
Last year’s finish: 27th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Since I made an X-Men quip last year to mark Erik’s return to the league, so may I make another one: Erik’s 2018 was as bad as Dark Phoenix. It didn’t help that he lost his starting quarterback in Alex Smith to a potential career-ending injury along the way, or that none of his offensive players had a consistent starting role. That should change, at least to some degree, in 2019, as Erik drafted Mecole Hardman and Terry McLaurin (To add to Paul Richardson) to shore up his receiver spots. But absent a starting running back, or at the moment a healthy quarterback, this is still one of the league’s worst offenses. In fact, if it wasn’t for his defense that was well above average in 2018, it’s hard to imagine the Titans not finishing in dead last. So the good news is: There’s nowhere to go but up on that side of the ball. Another positive is that each one of the mainstays on the defense returns this year, save Chris Harris, who Erik essentially flipped for Harrison Smith, a clear upgrade. While the roles of several of the members of this unit have changed, and some are not expected to hit their scoring outputs from a year ago, the Titans’ D is clearly in the league’s top-half, and probably doesn’t belong on a bottom feeder team. Look for Tennessee to be a big seller to contenders at the trade deadline, or even before that. It’s clear that Erik is taking the long game approach to heart, as he managed to use his considerable draft capital this year to get some players that he liked, but also stock the cupboard with a league-high 10 picks next year. Only time will tell if he can turn the Titans into a first class operation, and get back to the days of the past, in the future, or if this will be his last stand and end up in apocalypse.
X-factor: Still future. The Titans are still nowhere close to contention. But with a bevvy of picks in 2020, and some potential high-impact players taken in this year’s draft, it’s possible to see him competing for a playoff spot by the end of next year (Depending on what he does with those picks). But short of a absolute overhaul, it’s not happening this year.
Projected division finish: 4th
Remember to watch out for the third of our divisional previews, this time the NFC South, which should drop in the next few days. Thanks again guys.
Next up on the list, we look in on the AFC South, the division that produced an 11-win team, and a Super Bowl runner-up—separately in 2018. While the top of the division should play out the same, there are some interesting storylines to consider in 2019 and going forward. For instance, can the Jags repeat their 11-1 season, or even shoot for history at 12-0? Is Ryan good enough to get back to the AFC Championship Game for the third-straight year? Can J.R. get over the hump and finally make the playoffs? And can Erik continue to creep along, accumulate assets, and buck the division order? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Houston Texans (Ryan)
Last year’s finish: 2nd (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Through two years in the league, Ryan has a record of 20-8, has won his division, gone to the AFC Championship in both years, winning it and advancing to the Super Bowl a year ago. First off, that’s a pretty impressive résumé over one’s first two years. Secondly, Ryan’s going to face an uphill battle to continue that run of success this year. Beset by untenable salaries, no draft capital, and perhaps the unluckiest offseason since Cincinnati’s 2014-2015 (In which three starting LBs that he re-signed retired), Ryan has his work seriously cut out for him. It started off when he chose not to re-sign Michael Crabtree or Alex Collins (Totally defensible considering that neither has a team, and Collins is facing serious prison time), and continued when JPP crashed his car and broke his neck. The coup de grâce was completed when Telvin Smith decided to take a mini-retirement, right after Ryan had spent 3 re-signing years on him. While it’s hard to bet against a team with Tom Brady, DeAndre Hopkins, and Nick Chubb as its offensive core, beyond that, it’s pretty bare bones (With every other player’s role lessening after free agency and the draft), without a lot of readily-apparent ways to improve (Short of offloading 2020 picks). Defensively, the Texans still sport Eric Kendricks, De’Vondre Campbell, Jonathan Allen, Von Bell, and James Bradberry, there’s similarly a lack of quality depth behind them.
X-factor: Offensive and Defensive depth. The high-upside members of this team mean that both units could finish on the right side of the middle of the pack, but it’s hard to believe, short of some major acquisitions, that Ryan will be able to repeat the successes of his first two years, and make it back to the playoffs in 2019. And if he is seriously committed to a rebuild instead of pushing for contention, as rumors have it, then I think he’ll fall short of that mark.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Indianapolis Colts (J.R.)
Last year’s finish: 22nd (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: J.R.’s Colts may have taken a step backward in 2018 (Finishing 4-8 after a 6-6 record the year previous), but the core of his team is still there (Winston, Mixon, Peterson, and Josh Doctson), and he has made some serious additions this offseason to reinforce some previously weak areas. He used his significant trove of draft picks to select Parris Campbell, and Miles Boykin, both of whom could be his starting WRs as soon as Week 1. Additionally, he added Josh Oliver, who looks like he may have the inside track to landing the top-job in Jacksonville’s TE corps as a rookie. Despite the fact that he also re-upped Jesse James to one of the biggest TE contracts in the league--only to see him relegated to second-team duties--J.R., a paragon of cap space, can more than absorb that blow financially, and now has a decent backup option there, at a minimum. Defensively, as always, there is still work to do. Nobody on the entire unit stands out as an impact player, and only two defensive players on the roster averaged 8 PPG or more last year--DeForest Buckner and Denzel Ward—two players at non-premium positions, and therefore subject to much more variation from year-to-year. There’s only one starting inside linebacker—B.J. Goodson—and he’s been one of the most chronically injured players in the league. The unit averaged just 45 PPG last year, so despite the addition of three other players (Via the Rookie Draft) likely to score some points this year--in Ben Banogu, Greedy Williams, and DeAndre Baker—they fit the mold of the rest of the defense: Solid at best, and do not play at a premium position. If he wants to be the team that scored 200+ in Week 1 last year in the long-term, he’s going to have to goose that side of the ball a little bit.
X-factor: Defense. If J.R. can make some savvy moves in free agency to boost the defense, we could finally, at long last, be looking at a playoff team in Indy (Which would be the franchise’s first since the league began, the only one who has still yet to make the postseason).
Projected division finish: 2nd
Jacksonville Jaguars (Jordan)
Last year’s finish: 6th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: The class of the division--and maybe the AFC—Jordan has yet to lose a division game in his three years in the league, and even if that streak should be broken this year, it shouldn’t derail him from taking the South once again in a cakewalk. Offensively, the Jaguars are as potent as any team in the league, behind Russell Wilson, David Johnson, Antonio Brown, James Conner, Tyler Boyd, Austin Hooper, Mohamed Sanu, and presumably, last year’s #2 pick in the Rookie Draft, Derrius Guice. While he may have some holes to fill with depth at receiver--especially if his top-rookie pick (Andy Isabella) doesn’t take off right away--this is likely the best starting offense this side of Seattle. Defensively, returning is Kwon Alexander, who missed significant time a year ago with injury, as well as Jayon Brown, Kenny Young, and Kyzir White at LB. Jordan also added Josey Jewell, who may take over as the lead ILB for Denver, to that group, as well as potential starter, rookie Quincy Williams. He also returns standout John Johnson ay DB, headlining a group that is otherwise average on paper, but has the potential to exceed that if things break right—like rookie safety Darnell Savage, who Jordan looted late in the draft. Additionally, Jordan made an upgrade on the defensive line, acquiring Jerry Hughes to replace Markus Golden, in what should be a net positive. While there is some reason for concern if several of those parties don’t end up having the role they are projected for, offense will win the day, and it’s not like the defense isn’t good enough on its own.
X-factor: Defense and Health. To repeat my X-factor from last year: “It’s no state secret where Jacksonville’s faults lie. No doubt Jordan will be in the market all season long to try to upgrade this unit. If he can, he may in fact be the top-seed in all the AFC. If he can’t…he still likely has enough to get by Ryan’s Texans. This offense is just too good, with too many options, not to hit on enough big games from said options, and to drop 70 or more on a team every week. If Jordan manages to meet or even exceed my proclamation, he’s going to do very well for himself this year.” I think that still does the job for this year as well. Oh, and also, health.
Projected division finish: 1st
Tennessee Titans (Erik)
Last year’s finish: 27th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Since I made an X-Men quip last year to mark Erik’s return to the league, so may I make another one: Erik’s 2018 was as bad as Dark Phoenix. It didn’t help that he lost his starting quarterback in Alex Smith to a potential career-ending injury along the way, or that none of his offensive players had a consistent starting role. That should change, at least to some degree, in 2019, as Erik drafted Mecole Hardman and Terry McLaurin (To add to Paul Richardson) to shore up his receiver spots. But absent a starting running back, or at the moment a healthy quarterback, this is still one of the league’s worst offenses. In fact, if it wasn’t for his defense that was well above average in 2018, it’s hard to imagine the Titans not finishing in dead last. So the good news is: There’s nowhere to go but up on that side of the ball. Another positive is that each one of the mainstays on the defense returns this year, save Chris Harris, who Erik essentially flipped for Harrison Smith, a clear upgrade. While the roles of several of the members of this unit have changed, and some are not expected to hit their scoring outputs from a year ago, the Titans’ D is clearly in the league’s top-half, and probably doesn’t belong on a bottom feeder team. Look for Tennessee to be a big seller to contenders at the trade deadline, or even before that. It’s clear that Erik is taking the long game approach to heart, as he managed to use his considerable draft capital this year to get some players that he liked, but also stock the cupboard with a league-high 10 picks next year. Only time will tell if he can turn the Titans into a first class operation, and get back to the days of the past, in the future, or if this will be his last stand and end up in apocalypse.
X-factor: Still future. The Titans are still nowhere close to contention. But with a bevvy of picks in 2020, and some potential high-impact players taken in this year’s draft, it’s possible to see him competing for a playoff spot by the end of next year (Depending on what he does with those picks). But short of a absolute overhaul, it’s not happening this year.
Projected division finish: 4th
Remember to watch out for the third of our divisional previews, this time the NFC South, which should drop in the next few days. Thanks again guys.