AFC South
Jul 26, 2016 4:50:12 GMT -5
Indianapolis Colts (J.R.) and Carolina Panthers (Justin) like this
Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Jul 26, 2016 4:50:12 GMT -5
AFC SOUTH
Continuing with our Divisional Preview series, this week we take a look at the AFC South, a division that produced three playoff teams and the league champion a year ago as a wild card team. This year, the team that won it all (Jacksonville) has a new GM (Jordan), and the other three teams look to be the same or better in 2016. Houston wants to repeat as division champion and an elite team, Tennessee is looking for a third-consecutive playoff appearance in three years in the league, and J.R.’s Colts in year-2 of a rebuild are primed for a big jump, even if contention is still at least a year away. This should be the best, most-competitive division in the league and could once again place three teams in the second season. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Houston Texans (Erik)
OFF: 73.21 (76.7 LY)
DEF: 68.08 (65.9 LY)
K: 9.94 (7.75 LY)
TOTAL: 151.23 6th (150.35 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Carson Palmer, DeAndre Hopkins, Ameer Abdullah, Marvin Jones, Coby Fleener, Laquon Treadwell
Defensive Impact Players: Telvin Smith, Jerrell Freeman, Eric Kendricks, Brandon Marshall, Rob Ninkovich, Rodney McLeod
Last year’s finish and recap- 9th: Houston took the division lead in Week 3 and never relinquished it. They didn’t lose for the first time since Week 5, didn’t lose for the second time until Week 9, and in the process, ran away with one of the most competitive divisions in the league, finishing 9-3. However, it was all over just one short week later, when eventual league champion Jacksonville won the opening round game (and rematch from Week 12 which the Jaguars won by 8+ points to clinch a playoff spot against their division-winning foe) in a shootout that to my knowledge, stands as one of the highest-scoring playoff bouts to date (180-177).
Outlook: Erik once again had a good offseason, though there’s not much you can do to improve upon 9-3 save keeping the core together, and that’s just what he did. In addition to the core of Palmer, Abdullah, Hopkins and Fleener (offensively), Erik has added rookie Laquon Treadwell and three other high-upside picks that might not produce right away, but may have bright futures. Defensively, he nabbed Myles Jack to pair with, again, one of the most fearsome foursomes of LBs in the league (Telvin Smith, Jerrell Freeman, Eric Kendricks and Brandon Marshall). He also signed Nick Kwiatkoski, who may eventually be a starting inside backer as well. The defensive backfield is average, but Rob Ninkovich mans the defensive line, meaning another high-upside player for a team full of them. It should be another very successful season for the Texans.
X-factor: RB depth and ancillary DB options. The latter of these should only present a problem in case of serious injuries, but the former could loom large, especially if neither of the two rookie RBs that Houston drafted (Alex Collins and Daniel Lasco) are ready or able to contribute early.
Projected division finish: 1st
Indianapolis Colts (J.R.)
OFF: 52.75 (50.7 LY)
DEF: 56.67 (39.83 LY)
K: 10.81 (7.75 LY)
TOTAL: 120.23 23rd (98.28 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Jameis Winston, Jeremy Maclin, Tedd Ginn Jr., Darren McFadden, Josh Doctson
Defensive Impact Players: Marcus Peters, Fletcher Cox, Shamarko Thomas, Clay Matthews
Last year’s finish and recap- 30th: J.R.’s Colts were in the first year of their rebuild last year, and to be honest, they looked like it. Indy went 0-4 out of the gates in 2015, only once coming with 15 points of their opponent during that span. Then they eviscerated the lowly Jets by nearly 50 before being on the other end of that margin the next week against Arizona. The Colts recovered to win a low-scoring match up with San Francisco in Week 7 (though Norman had long checked out at that point) before being walloped by St. Louis, doubled up and some by Seattle, and well, other adjectives that describe losing by 50-100 points to go 0-3 in division over the last three weeks. It was a 2-10 finish, and not pretty, but improvement was seen in some of the point totals of the last half of the season and the futures of Winston, Peters and Maxx Williams.
Outlook: In addition to the strong draft of 2015, J.R. added freakishly-athletic wideout Josh Doctson this year, as well as top-rated DE DeForest Buckner. There are serious pieces in play, especially if Doctson assumes a WR1 role in Washington as soon as next year and if Williams can break free of the shackles in a deeply mediocre Baltimore tight end quartet. However, this once again has the appearance of a rebuilding year. The stats below are the tale of the tape, as the Colts are expected for a 20+ point per game improvement from last year, but in this division, there is still a lot of work to be done before Indianapolis can be labeled as contenders.
X-factor: RB. The drafting of Ezekiel Elliott made McFadden and Alfred Morris to a great degree, superfluous, and threatens to lessen DMC’s role from that of an RB1 to a FLEX option if he’s lucky, or at least that’s what the projections say. At any rate, this should be a point of consternation for J.R. this year.
Projected division finish: 4th
Jacksonville Jaguars (Jordan)
OFF: 83.62 (69.64 LY)
DEF: 57.82 (60.22 LY)
K: 8.81 (6.75 LY)
TOTAL: 150.25 7th (136.61 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Aaron Rodgers, Antonio Brown, David Johnson, Latavius Murray, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Defensive Impact Players: Jamie Collins, Kwon Alexander, Tyrann Mathieu, Morgan Burnett, William Gholston
Last year’s finish and recap- 1st: The unnamed Jacksonville owner (much like the character from Grand Theft Auto III, though this one definitely talked) took his team to new heights in 2015 and took the North Florida Football League to new lows. After several puzzling personnel decisions on the eve of the season (cutting established players to roster developmental rookies), the Jags looked dead in the water for most of the year. Following three impressive performances to open the season (including the win over Philly in Week 1, the final score of which and supposed quote from our Eagles' GM, Andrew, he made his signature for the rest of the year) Jacksonville’s production entered the doldrums, dropping him to 2-4 through 6 weeks (including a loss to lowly SF). But Week 7 represented the slow uphill climb back to the top. After a 1-1 stretch, JAX won two straight to get him back to even at 5-5. Then a loss to Tennessee in Week 11 put his playoff chances in real danger. He only responded with a near 150-point game to beat the previously unscathed (in division) Texans to make the playoffs and secure a rematch, which he won in exhilarating fashion, 180-177. From that point on, he didn’t score under 145 points en route to a championship, which would be his first and last in the NFFL.
Outlook: Despite the new ownership, many of the core pieces return from 2015. Rodgers, Brown, Murray and ASJ are all back on O, and Collins, Alexander, Burnett and Mathieu come back on the defensive side of the ball. Those names alone put Jacksonville in elite company. But part of what helped JAX win the league last year, nudging veterans off the squad to roster rookies, has also taken its toll on the depth of this team. That’s where the biggest improvement has to come from this year. We’ll see if Jordan is up to the task, though he looks the part after making some impressive rookie picks, such as Tyler Boyd, Devontae Booker, Noah Spence and Joshua Perry.
X-factor: Defensive depth. Right now the lack of a viable bench defensively is the big reason that this team scares me. Maybe those names present right now will start to develop and produce down the stretch again, but it’s enough of a concern to make me place JAX in 2nd in the South in my preview, despite Fantrax projecting the slightly higher number of points for the Jaguars than the Texans.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Tennessee Titans (Kirk)
OFF: 64.45 (63.66 LY)
DEF: 68.05 (60.45 LY)
K: 9.06 (5.33 LY)
TOTAL: 141.56 11th (129.44 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Alex Smith, Emmanuel Sanders, Vincent Jackson, C.J. Anderson, Richard Rodgers
Defensive Impact Players: D’Qwell Jackson, Vontaze Burfict, Kareem Jackson, Donte Whitner, Derek Wolfe, Cameron Heyward, Denzel Perryman, Bradley McDougald, Terrell Suggs
Last year’s finish and recap- 7th: Tennessee took two tough pills to swallow in the first two weeks of 2015, dropping two contests in which Kirk’s team had scored far in excess of 130 points. And after a drubbing of the Jets (the team that seems to heal all ills) in Week 3 and a win over the Patriots in Week 4, the Titans were back at .500. A week later, they were minced tuna for the Dolphins in a 40-point shellacking to leave the team formerly known as the Tennessee Oilers 2-3, After a 3-1 stint against the NFC West (though the one loss was a destroying at the hands of Seattle) that put the Titans back on the winning side of the ledger at 5-4, the lone remaining loss (and again, by a gargantuan margin…pun not initially intended), Kirk’s team rallied to comfortably beat the Jags and Colts to finish 7-5 and earn a wild card berth. After a first round pillaging of the defending-champion Steelers (by over 50 points) Tennessee’s season ended in the second round the way that so many others did, at the hands of Jacksonville.
Outlook: The Titans like most of the rest of the division remain, for the most part, unchanged from their 2015 form, with the vast majority of offensive and defensive pieces returning. Making it 4-for-4 returning starters at the QB position in the AFC South, Alex Smith returns after another surprisingly above-average fantasy season, C.J. Anderson returns as the lead back after somewhat of a down year, and Emmanuel Sanders and Vincent Jackson, still good in 2015, though not what they were in 2014, are back as well. Defensively, D’Qwell Jackson, Burfict (though he'll miss the first third of the fantasy year due to suspension) and Perryman highlight a plethora of game-breaking talent on defense. There are potentially more impact players in this defensive unit than on any other team in the league. But once again, the reality is that with the elite offensive weapons in this division, the Titans face an uphill battle from the go to remain competitive. A likely champion in many other divisions, the health of Houston and Jacksonville will go a long way, perhaps as much as anything that Tennessee itself does, in determining where the Titans finish in 2016.
X-factor: RB Depth. If Anderson should suffer an injury or a slow start to the year once again, it may not be his job to struggle through anymore, which could throw Tennessee’s plans of contention into a tailspin, as the two other RBs on the Titans’ roster, Jacquizz Rodgers and Antonio Andrews, are considered to be at the back ends of RBBCs if they make their respective teams’ 53-man rosters this fall. At any rate, it’s a serious concern for a team that is otherwise deep.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Remember to watch out for the third of our divisional previews, as we venture to the NFC to cover the NFC North, which should be up sometime near the end of the week or this weekend. Thanks again guys.
Continuing with our Divisional Preview series, this week we take a look at the AFC South, a division that produced three playoff teams and the league champion a year ago as a wild card team. This year, the team that won it all (Jacksonville) has a new GM (Jordan), and the other three teams look to be the same or better in 2016. Houston wants to repeat as division champion and an elite team, Tennessee is looking for a third-consecutive playoff appearance in three years in the league, and J.R.’s Colts in year-2 of a rebuild are primed for a big jump, even if contention is still at least a year away. This should be the best, most-competitive division in the league and could once again place three teams in the second season. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Houston Texans (Erik)
OFF: 73.21 (76.7 LY)
DEF: 68.08 (65.9 LY)
K: 9.94 (7.75 LY)
TOTAL: 151.23 6th (150.35 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Carson Palmer, DeAndre Hopkins, Ameer Abdullah, Marvin Jones, Coby Fleener, Laquon Treadwell
Defensive Impact Players: Telvin Smith, Jerrell Freeman, Eric Kendricks, Brandon Marshall, Rob Ninkovich, Rodney McLeod
Last year’s finish and recap- 9th: Houston took the division lead in Week 3 and never relinquished it. They didn’t lose for the first time since Week 5, didn’t lose for the second time until Week 9, and in the process, ran away with one of the most competitive divisions in the league, finishing 9-3. However, it was all over just one short week later, when eventual league champion Jacksonville won the opening round game (and rematch from Week 12 which the Jaguars won by 8+ points to clinch a playoff spot against their division-winning foe) in a shootout that to my knowledge, stands as one of the highest-scoring playoff bouts to date (180-177).
Outlook: Erik once again had a good offseason, though there’s not much you can do to improve upon 9-3 save keeping the core together, and that’s just what he did. In addition to the core of Palmer, Abdullah, Hopkins and Fleener (offensively), Erik has added rookie Laquon Treadwell and three other high-upside picks that might not produce right away, but may have bright futures. Defensively, he nabbed Myles Jack to pair with, again, one of the most fearsome foursomes of LBs in the league (Telvin Smith, Jerrell Freeman, Eric Kendricks and Brandon Marshall). He also signed Nick Kwiatkoski, who may eventually be a starting inside backer as well. The defensive backfield is average, but Rob Ninkovich mans the defensive line, meaning another high-upside player for a team full of them. It should be another very successful season for the Texans.
X-factor: RB depth and ancillary DB options. The latter of these should only present a problem in case of serious injuries, but the former could loom large, especially if neither of the two rookie RBs that Houston drafted (Alex Collins and Daniel Lasco) are ready or able to contribute early.
Projected division finish: 1st
Indianapolis Colts (J.R.)
OFF: 52.75 (50.7 LY)
DEF: 56.67 (39.83 LY)
K: 10.81 (7.75 LY)
TOTAL: 120.23 23rd (98.28 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Jameis Winston, Jeremy Maclin, Tedd Ginn Jr., Darren McFadden, Josh Doctson
Defensive Impact Players: Marcus Peters, Fletcher Cox, Shamarko Thomas, Clay Matthews
Last year’s finish and recap- 30th: J.R.’s Colts were in the first year of their rebuild last year, and to be honest, they looked like it. Indy went 0-4 out of the gates in 2015, only once coming with 15 points of their opponent during that span. Then they eviscerated the lowly Jets by nearly 50 before being on the other end of that margin the next week against Arizona. The Colts recovered to win a low-scoring match up with San Francisco in Week 7 (though Norman had long checked out at that point) before being walloped by St. Louis, doubled up and some by Seattle, and well, other adjectives that describe losing by 50-100 points to go 0-3 in division over the last three weeks. It was a 2-10 finish, and not pretty, but improvement was seen in some of the point totals of the last half of the season and the futures of Winston, Peters and Maxx Williams.
Outlook: In addition to the strong draft of 2015, J.R. added freakishly-athletic wideout Josh Doctson this year, as well as top-rated DE DeForest Buckner. There are serious pieces in play, especially if Doctson assumes a WR1 role in Washington as soon as next year and if Williams can break free of the shackles in a deeply mediocre Baltimore tight end quartet. However, this once again has the appearance of a rebuilding year. The stats below are the tale of the tape, as the Colts are expected for a 20+ point per game improvement from last year, but in this division, there is still a lot of work to be done before Indianapolis can be labeled as contenders.
X-factor: RB. The drafting of Ezekiel Elliott made McFadden and Alfred Morris to a great degree, superfluous, and threatens to lessen DMC’s role from that of an RB1 to a FLEX option if he’s lucky, or at least that’s what the projections say. At any rate, this should be a point of consternation for J.R. this year.
Projected division finish: 4th
Jacksonville Jaguars (Jordan)
OFF: 83.62 (69.64 LY)
DEF: 57.82 (60.22 LY)
K: 8.81 (6.75 LY)
TOTAL: 150.25 7th (136.61 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Aaron Rodgers, Antonio Brown, David Johnson, Latavius Murray, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Defensive Impact Players: Jamie Collins, Kwon Alexander, Tyrann Mathieu, Morgan Burnett, William Gholston
Last year’s finish and recap- 1st: The unnamed Jacksonville owner (much like the character from Grand Theft Auto III, though this one definitely talked) took his team to new heights in 2015 and took the North Florida Football League to new lows. After several puzzling personnel decisions on the eve of the season (cutting established players to roster developmental rookies), the Jags looked dead in the water for most of the year. Following three impressive performances to open the season (including the win over Philly in Week 1, the final score of which and supposed quote from our Eagles' GM, Andrew, he made his signature for the rest of the year) Jacksonville’s production entered the doldrums, dropping him to 2-4 through 6 weeks (including a loss to lowly SF). But Week 7 represented the slow uphill climb back to the top. After a 1-1 stretch, JAX won two straight to get him back to even at 5-5. Then a loss to Tennessee in Week 11 put his playoff chances in real danger. He only responded with a near 150-point game to beat the previously unscathed (in division) Texans to make the playoffs and secure a rematch, which he won in exhilarating fashion, 180-177. From that point on, he didn’t score under 145 points en route to a championship, which would be his first and last in the NFFL.
Outlook: Despite the new ownership, many of the core pieces return from 2015. Rodgers, Brown, Murray and ASJ are all back on O, and Collins, Alexander, Burnett and Mathieu come back on the defensive side of the ball. Those names alone put Jacksonville in elite company. But part of what helped JAX win the league last year, nudging veterans off the squad to roster rookies, has also taken its toll on the depth of this team. That’s where the biggest improvement has to come from this year. We’ll see if Jordan is up to the task, though he looks the part after making some impressive rookie picks, such as Tyler Boyd, Devontae Booker, Noah Spence and Joshua Perry.
X-factor: Defensive depth. Right now the lack of a viable bench defensively is the big reason that this team scares me. Maybe those names present right now will start to develop and produce down the stretch again, but it’s enough of a concern to make me place JAX in 2nd in the South in my preview, despite Fantrax projecting the slightly higher number of points for the Jaguars than the Texans.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Tennessee Titans (Kirk)
OFF: 64.45 (63.66 LY)
DEF: 68.05 (60.45 LY)
K: 9.06 (5.33 LY)
TOTAL: 141.56 11th (129.44 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Alex Smith, Emmanuel Sanders, Vincent Jackson, C.J. Anderson, Richard Rodgers
Defensive Impact Players: D’Qwell Jackson, Vontaze Burfict, Kareem Jackson, Donte Whitner, Derek Wolfe, Cameron Heyward, Denzel Perryman, Bradley McDougald, Terrell Suggs
Last year’s finish and recap- 7th: Tennessee took two tough pills to swallow in the first two weeks of 2015, dropping two contests in which Kirk’s team had scored far in excess of 130 points. And after a drubbing of the Jets (the team that seems to heal all ills) in Week 3 and a win over the Patriots in Week 4, the Titans were back at .500. A week later, they were minced tuna for the Dolphins in a 40-point shellacking to leave the team formerly known as the Tennessee Oilers 2-3, After a 3-1 stint against the NFC West (though the one loss was a destroying at the hands of Seattle) that put the Titans back on the winning side of the ledger at 5-4, the lone remaining loss (and again, by a gargantuan margin…pun not initially intended), Kirk’s team rallied to comfortably beat the Jags and Colts to finish 7-5 and earn a wild card berth. After a first round pillaging of the defending-champion Steelers (by over 50 points) Tennessee’s season ended in the second round the way that so many others did, at the hands of Jacksonville.
Outlook: The Titans like most of the rest of the division remain, for the most part, unchanged from their 2015 form, with the vast majority of offensive and defensive pieces returning. Making it 4-for-4 returning starters at the QB position in the AFC South, Alex Smith returns after another surprisingly above-average fantasy season, C.J. Anderson returns as the lead back after somewhat of a down year, and Emmanuel Sanders and Vincent Jackson, still good in 2015, though not what they were in 2014, are back as well. Defensively, D’Qwell Jackson, Burfict (though he'll miss the first third of the fantasy year due to suspension) and Perryman highlight a plethora of game-breaking talent on defense. There are potentially more impact players in this defensive unit than on any other team in the league. But once again, the reality is that with the elite offensive weapons in this division, the Titans face an uphill battle from the go to remain competitive. A likely champion in many other divisions, the health of Houston and Jacksonville will go a long way, perhaps as much as anything that Tennessee itself does, in determining where the Titans finish in 2016.
X-factor: RB Depth. If Anderson should suffer an injury or a slow start to the year once again, it may not be his job to struggle through anymore, which could throw Tennessee’s plans of contention into a tailspin, as the two other RBs on the Titans’ roster, Jacquizz Rodgers and Antonio Andrews, are considered to be at the back ends of RBBCs if they make their respective teams’ 53-man rosters this fall. At any rate, it’s a serious concern for a team that is otherwise deep.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Remember to watch out for the third of our divisional previews, as we venture to the NFC to cover the NFC North, which should be up sometime near the end of the week or this weekend. Thanks again guys.