Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Jul 22, 2016 14:26:40 GMT -5
AFC NORTH
For the third straight year, I’ll be handling PRs and Divisional Previews, which begin…NOW! We start with the AFC North, a division that produced two playoff teams and a league champion 2 years ago, but came back to Earth last season, when Pittsburgh ran away with the division and the bottom three teams all finished with losing records, but all were within a game of one another, much like the finish of 2013. This year, the division looks improved, at least on paper, and it’s possible that these teams could replicate or even exceed the 2014 successes of the AFC North. Also this year, you'll notice something new for each team: Fantrax point projections. Since Fantrax has begun to factor tackles into their pre-season statistical projections, those players that they did project are much more accurate. So I've included them as part of the criteria which I base my projections on. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Baltimore Ravens (Goose)
OFF: 65.84 (49.09 LY)
DEF: 54.09 (44.05 LY)
K: 12.5 (8.25 LY)
TOTAL: 132.43 16th (101.39 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Matthew Stafford, John Brown, Darren Sproles, Julius Thomas, Sterling Shepard, Breshad Perriman
Defensive Impact Players: Avery Williamson, Shea McClellin, Stephon Tuitt, David Amerson, Tony Jefferson
Last year’s finish and recap- 25th: Baltimore was one game out of first in the division after Week 7 and was looking a strong choice for Wild Card consideration. However, from that point on, the Ravens put on a show of absolute futility, dropping four-straight and only once eclipsing 90 points during that time (of course they followed that by scoring 171+ in a 40-point bludgeoning of Cleveland in Week 12, and by virtue of that win, ended up second in the division).
Outlook: Baltimore has to get more consistency out of its team this year, as its point production ranged from 41+-171+ points on a week-to-week basis. Some of that was due to injuries, and Goose has done a good job through the draft, especially at WR, to shore up some of those concerns. The major questions on that side are whether Darren Sproles can be a fantasy RB1 for the Ravens and whether or not Breshad Perriman can make a fantasy impact in real-life Baltimore’s muddled WR group. Defensively, Baltimore is solid, and if the projections are correct, Goose will field one of the top-third of defensive units in the league. There isn’t, however, a lot of potential for a breakout performer, only five players who average or are projected to average 8-10 points per game next year. If it plays out that way, that’s great for Baltimore, and should help to make their scoring efforts more consistent, especially when the offense has an off day.
X-factor: Perriman. While I’d like to say RB because the depth is so slight, at least we know what Darren Sproles is at this point. Perriman is a complete unknown. With athletic tools for days, but a concerning injury history and mental focus, his success could be the difference in a playoff berth for Goose and dropping back down the divisional ladder.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Cincinnati Bengals (Chris)
OFF: 70.8 (53.46 LY)
DEF: 58.62 (52.14 LY)
K: 10.75 (9.17 LY)
TOTAL: 140.17 13th (114.8 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Sam Bradford, Steve Smith Sr., Antonio Gates, Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard, Kevin White
Defensive Impact Players: David Harris, Adam Jones, Robert Ayers Jr., Connor Barwin, DeAngelo Hall, Dont’a Hightower
Last year’s finish and recap- 29th: Cincinnati came into the year with high hopes, and for good reason. Coming off of a 8-win 2014 campaign, the Bengals were looking to repeat as a playoff team and vie for the top spot in the division, and Chris’ activity confirmed that: drafting a cadre of early impact players in late rounds (Hau’oli Kikaha, Karlos Williams and Za’Darius Smith), and acquiring Stephone Anthony and one Calvin Johnson on the eve of the season. However, Chris took too many chances as well, counting on consistent play from Sam Bradford and banking on being able to hold out through Antonio Gates’ 4-game suspension. In the end, Chris and the Bengals lost big on those two bets, as well as trusting the Rotoworld blurbs and inactives lists on IDPs, and was a seller by the time that the trade deadline rolled around.
Outlook: Cincinnati used the UFA and Rookie Drafts to retool the Bengals’ offensive and defensive depth, adding David Harris, Connor Barwin, Paul Perkins, and Pharoh Cooper, and netting Rey Maualuga, DeAngelo Hall, Victor Cruz, Brandon LaFell and Jaelen Strong via trades (And Jaylon Smith for down the road). Those moves certainly improve the floor of this Bengals squad, but of those players, nearly all have question marks (most based on playing time or injury), and Harris may be the only elite contributor right away. The offense will be good, or possibly even better, the defense will likely be solid, but can a Sam Bradford-quarterbacked team make the playoffs? We shall see.
X-factor: Bradford. If he gives Cincy a career-year, the Bengals could be in the upper echelon of teams. If he bombs again, the Bengals could finish at the bottom of the totem pole in the North again.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Cleveland Browns (Kevin)
OFF: 45.09 (48.1 LY)
DEF: 27.27 (48.29 LY)
K: 10.75 (7.5 LY)
TOTAL: 83.11 32nd (103.89 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Colin Kaepernick, LeGarrete Blount, Dorial-Green Beckham, Torrey Smith, Matt Jones
Defensive Impact Players: Kawann Short, Justin Houston, Von Miller
Last year’s finish and recap- 24th: Similarly to Baltimore, Cleveland started out the season 4-3, one game out of first at that point, but did so more impressively than the Ravens. Cleveland took down three playoff teams at that point and was a much more consistent scorer. Then the Browns took a nosedive off the cliff, getting throttled by two NFC North playoff foes before getting back on the right side of the ledger in a win over Cincinnati. But sadly, even after cresting again at 5-5, the Dawg Pound was silenced by back-to-back losses (a close loss to Pittsburgh and an undoing at the hands of Baltimore) to end the season.
Outlook: Given the one game improvement and obvious addition of talent, one would think Cleveland’s arrow is pointing up. Well, long term, that looks to be the case, but Fantrax isn’t as bullish on the Browns as you or I might be. Cleveland is the only team in the division that is expected to experience a points drop off from a year ago (though slight), and it can be accounted for in two places. One, the change at QB from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Colin Kaepernick, who Fantrax does not see as a full-time starter. Secondly, the loss of Justin Houston for maybe as much as half the season looms large. Kevin has played his hand well though, and has Dee Ford, the projected beneficiary of Houston’s injury, so at least he’ll get some production out of that spot in Houston’s stead in the mean-time. Cleveland is also by far the team that Fantrax projected the fewest defensive players for (meaning they’re assigned a zero-point value, which obviously won’t be the case). So expect that defensive number to improve somewhat.
X-factor: QB. There’s no question that Colin Kaepernick has the ability, and I’m not even sure he’s at fault for the 49ers’ offensive struggles (though I’m sure he’s a part of them). As a player who was basically statistically dead-even with last year’s NFL MVP at the midway point of last season, it’s strange to talk about him not having a starting gig, but his coach may not trust him, his body might be betraying him and the press clippings might unfairly knock him into the backup role. If that happens, Cleveland will have to scramble for a QB and this becomes a pointless exercise.
Projected division finish: 4th
Pittsburgh Steelers (Garrett)
OFF: 95.84 (75.06 LY)
DEF: 67.23 (54.94 LY)
K: 6.12 (3.75 LY)
TOTAL: 169.19 4th (136.12 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Ryan Tannehill, Rob Gronkowski, Larry Fitzgerald, Jordan Matthews, Le’Veon Bell, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson
Defensive Impact Players: Mark Barron, T.J. McDonald, Everson Griffen, Geno Atkins, Quin Glover, Sio Moore, Demario Davis, Keenan Robinson
Last year’s finish and recap- 10th: Garrett entered last year as the reigning (not to mention inaugural and it turns out penultimate) NFFL Champion, and despite an early slump that had him just above .500 by one game 2/3 of the way through the season, he blew out 3 of the final 4 teams he played (CIN was the only team within 10 points of him), including a sweep of the division for the second-straight year, and finished the regular season a comfy 9-3. The next week, however, Garrett was waxed by the Tennessee Titans by over 55 points, and the season and the Steelers’ championship defense was over.
Outlook: What can you say about a team with that many offensive weapons? Ryan Tannehill is perhaps the only weak link, but even he should produce at a better rate than he did a year ago under QB whisperer Adam Gase. If Bell, Bryant and Nelson are back to health and if Gronkowski can maintain it, this is a record-setting offense the likes of which this league has never seen (yes, I also mean because this is the Canton Dynasty League’s first year) and is a force to be reckoned with. Defensively, the Steelers have a superb unit, and it was one of the most consistent in the league a year ago, but it’s likely overrated by Fantrax’s measurements. I can’t see both the Steelers’ offense AND defense rising by 15-20~ PPG, but I could be wrong. If I am, let’s just go ahead and hand Garrett the championship right now.
X-factor: RB depth. If Bell is injured or unable to return to his previous form (or suspended, which after I wrote this, apparently he is), Pittsburgh has no real depth at the position outside of a coming-off-of-a-Patellar-Tendon-tear-himself Lance Dunbar. If that happens, Garrett will probably have to scramble for a back, though he should have no trouble trading from his embarrassment of riches elsewhere (particularly at WR). If this happens though, that lessens the margin for error at those positions.
Projected division finish: 1st
Remember to watch out for the second of our divisional previews, this time the AFC South, which should drop next week. Thanks again guys.
For the third straight year, I’ll be handling PRs and Divisional Previews, which begin…NOW! We start with the AFC North, a division that produced two playoff teams and a league champion 2 years ago, but came back to Earth last season, when Pittsburgh ran away with the division and the bottom three teams all finished with losing records, but all were within a game of one another, much like the finish of 2013. This year, the division looks improved, at least on paper, and it’s possible that these teams could replicate or even exceed the 2014 successes of the AFC North. Also this year, you'll notice something new for each team: Fantrax point projections. Since Fantrax has begun to factor tackles into their pre-season statistical projections, those players that they did project are much more accurate. So I've included them as part of the criteria which I base my projections on. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Baltimore Ravens (Goose)
OFF: 65.84 (49.09 LY)
DEF: 54.09 (44.05 LY)
K: 12.5 (8.25 LY)
TOTAL: 132.43 16th (101.39 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Matthew Stafford, John Brown, Darren Sproles, Julius Thomas, Sterling Shepard, Breshad Perriman
Defensive Impact Players: Avery Williamson, Shea McClellin, Stephon Tuitt, David Amerson, Tony Jefferson
Last year’s finish and recap- 25th: Baltimore was one game out of first in the division after Week 7 and was looking a strong choice for Wild Card consideration. However, from that point on, the Ravens put on a show of absolute futility, dropping four-straight and only once eclipsing 90 points during that time (of course they followed that by scoring 171+ in a 40-point bludgeoning of Cleveland in Week 12, and by virtue of that win, ended up second in the division).
Outlook: Baltimore has to get more consistency out of its team this year, as its point production ranged from 41+-171+ points on a week-to-week basis. Some of that was due to injuries, and Goose has done a good job through the draft, especially at WR, to shore up some of those concerns. The major questions on that side are whether Darren Sproles can be a fantasy RB1 for the Ravens and whether or not Breshad Perriman can make a fantasy impact in real-life Baltimore’s muddled WR group. Defensively, Baltimore is solid, and if the projections are correct, Goose will field one of the top-third of defensive units in the league. There isn’t, however, a lot of potential for a breakout performer, only five players who average or are projected to average 8-10 points per game next year. If it plays out that way, that’s great for Baltimore, and should help to make their scoring efforts more consistent, especially when the offense has an off day.
X-factor: Perriman. While I’d like to say RB because the depth is so slight, at least we know what Darren Sproles is at this point. Perriman is a complete unknown. With athletic tools for days, but a concerning injury history and mental focus, his success could be the difference in a playoff berth for Goose and dropping back down the divisional ladder.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Cincinnati Bengals (Chris)
OFF: 70.8 (53.46 LY)
DEF: 58.62 (52.14 LY)
K: 10.75 (9.17 LY)
TOTAL: 140.17 13th (114.8 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Sam Bradford, Steve Smith Sr., Antonio Gates, Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard, Kevin White
Defensive Impact Players: David Harris, Adam Jones, Robert Ayers Jr., Connor Barwin, DeAngelo Hall, Dont’a Hightower
Last year’s finish and recap- 29th: Cincinnati came into the year with high hopes, and for good reason. Coming off of a 8-win 2014 campaign, the Bengals were looking to repeat as a playoff team and vie for the top spot in the division, and Chris’ activity confirmed that: drafting a cadre of early impact players in late rounds (Hau’oli Kikaha, Karlos Williams and Za’Darius Smith), and acquiring Stephone Anthony and one Calvin Johnson on the eve of the season. However, Chris took too many chances as well, counting on consistent play from Sam Bradford and banking on being able to hold out through Antonio Gates’ 4-game suspension. In the end, Chris and the Bengals lost big on those two bets, as well as trusting the Rotoworld blurbs and inactives lists on IDPs, and was a seller by the time that the trade deadline rolled around.
Outlook: Cincinnati used the UFA and Rookie Drafts to retool the Bengals’ offensive and defensive depth, adding David Harris, Connor Barwin, Paul Perkins, and Pharoh Cooper, and netting Rey Maualuga, DeAngelo Hall, Victor Cruz, Brandon LaFell and Jaelen Strong via trades (And Jaylon Smith for down the road). Those moves certainly improve the floor of this Bengals squad, but of those players, nearly all have question marks (most based on playing time or injury), and Harris may be the only elite contributor right away. The offense will be good, or possibly even better, the defense will likely be solid, but can a Sam Bradford-quarterbacked team make the playoffs? We shall see.
X-factor: Bradford. If he gives Cincy a career-year, the Bengals could be in the upper echelon of teams. If he bombs again, the Bengals could finish at the bottom of the totem pole in the North again.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Cleveland Browns (Kevin)
OFF: 45.09 (48.1 LY)
DEF: 27.27 (48.29 LY)
K: 10.75 (7.5 LY)
TOTAL: 83.11 32nd (103.89 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Colin Kaepernick, LeGarrete Blount, Dorial-Green Beckham, Torrey Smith, Matt Jones
Defensive Impact Players: Kawann Short, Justin Houston, Von Miller
Last year’s finish and recap- 24th: Similarly to Baltimore, Cleveland started out the season 4-3, one game out of first at that point, but did so more impressively than the Ravens. Cleveland took down three playoff teams at that point and was a much more consistent scorer. Then the Browns took a nosedive off the cliff, getting throttled by two NFC North playoff foes before getting back on the right side of the ledger in a win over Cincinnati. But sadly, even after cresting again at 5-5, the Dawg Pound was silenced by back-to-back losses (a close loss to Pittsburgh and an undoing at the hands of Baltimore) to end the season.
Outlook: Given the one game improvement and obvious addition of talent, one would think Cleveland’s arrow is pointing up. Well, long term, that looks to be the case, but Fantrax isn’t as bullish on the Browns as you or I might be. Cleveland is the only team in the division that is expected to experience a points drop off from a year ago (though slight), and it can be accounted for in two places. One, the change at QB from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Colin Kaepernick, who Fantrax does not see as a full-time starter. Secondly, the loss of Justin Houston for maybe as much as half the season looms large. Kevin has played his hand well though, and has Dee Ford, the projected beneficiary of Houston’s injury, so at least he’ll get some production out of that spot in Houston’s stead in the mean-time. Cleveland is also by far the team that Fantrax projected the fewest defensive players for (meaning they’re assigned a zero-point value, which obviously won’t be the case). So expect that defensive number to improve somewhat.
X-factor: QB. There’s no question that Colin Kaepernick has the ability, and I’m not even sure he’s at fault for the 49ers’ offensive struggles (though I’m sure he’s a part of them). As a player who was basically statistically dead-even with last year’s NFL MVP at the midway point of last season, it’s strange to talk about him not having a starting gig, but his coach may not trust him, his body might be betraying him and the press clippings might unfairly knock him into the backup role. If that happens, Cleveland will have to scramble for a QB and this becomes a pointless exercise.
Projected division finish: 4th
Pittsburgh Steelers (Garrett)
OFF: 95.84 (75.06 LY)
DEF: 67.23 (54.94 LY)
K: 6.12 (3.75 LY)
TOTAL: 169.19 4th (136.12 LY)
Offensive Impact Players: Ryan Tannehill, Rob Gronkowski, Larry Fitzgerald, Jordan Matthews, Le’Veon Bell, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson
Defensive Impact Players: Mark Barron, T.J. McDonald, Everson Griffen, Geno Atkins, Quin Glover, Sio Moore, Demario Davis, Keenan Robinson
Last year’s finish and recap- 10th: Garrett entered last year as the reigning (not to mention inaugural and it turns out penultimate) NFFL Champion, and despite an early slump that had him just above .500 by one game 2/3 of the way through the season, he blew out 3 of the final 4 teams he played (CIN was the only team within 10 points of him), including a sweep of the division for the second-straight year, and finished the regular season a comfy 9-3. The next week, however, Garrett was waxed by the Tennessee Titans by over 55 points, and the season and the Steelers’ championship defense was over.
Outlook: What can you say about a team with that many offensive weapons? Ryan Tannehill is perhaps the only weak link, but even he should produce at a better rate than he did a year ago under QB whisperer Adam Gase. If Bell, Bryant and Nelson are back to health and if Gronkowski can maintain it, this is a record-setting offense the likes of which this league has never seen (yes, I also mean because this is the Canton Dynasty League’s first year) and is a force to be reckoned with. Defensively, the Steelers have a superb unit, and it was one of the most consistent in the league a year ago, but it’s likely overrated by Fantrax’s measurements. I can’t see both the Steelers’ offense AND defense rising by 15-20~ PPG, but I could be wrong. If I am, let’s just go ahead and hand Garrett the championship right now.
X-factor: RB depth. If Bell is injured or unable to return to his previous form (or suspended, which after I wrote this, apparently he is), Pittsburgh has no real depth at the position outside of a coming-off-of-a-Patellar-Tendon-tear-himself Lance Dunbar. If that happens, Garrett will probably have to scramble for a back, though he should have no trouble trading from his embarrassment of riches elsewhere (particularly at WR). If this happens though, that lessens the margin for error at those positions.
Projected division finish: 1st
Remember to watch out for the second of our divisional previews, this time the AFC South, which should drop next week. Thanks again guys.