Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Sept 8, 2018 19:49:04 GMT -5
AFC EAST
The AFC East has been scattershot the last several years, with Miami, New England, and New York often swapping places, back-and-forth, at the bottom of the division. The East produced two playoff teams for the second consecutive year. Will the division be able to replicate that accomplishment, or potentially even place THREE teams in the playoffs? Will Sal continue to sit on the division throne? Can Castle surprise and outperform expectations? Can New England post another four-game improvement? Will the Jets finally put together the type of season that they were supposedly built for? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Buffalo Bills (Sal)
Last year’s finish: 10th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: 2017 saw Sal win his third-consecutive AFC East Division title, though he fell back a bit from the year before, when he went 10-2 in the regular season and played for a Super Bowl. In fact, 2017 was a three-year low in wins for Buffalo (8), and with the First Round exit in the playoffs, after the Bengals dumped the Bills, Sal’s earliest exit from the playoffs in three tries. Matt Ryan returns at quarterback for Sal, and is joined by several other talented impact players on offense, notably, among the receiving options. Keenan Allen, A.J. Green, and Paul Richardson man the wide receiver position, and Jordan Reed occupying the TE slot. While there is plenty of talent there, all of those players have some pretty serious injury issues (Which obviously skews more towards Allen and Reed in that list). Beyond that, there is not a ton of depth at those positions, with only 5th Round rookie Jordan Lasley buried in Baltimore’s receiving corps, and former UDFA and currently on IR Packer, Jake Kumerow, at wide receiver, and no backup TE. At running back, depth isn’t necessarily a concern, but the high-end is, as none of Sal’s three current RBs (Ty Montgomery, Aaron Jones, and Jordan Wilkins) project as a starter. It appears that he is hoping for Jones to come back after his 2-game suspension and win the job back from Jamaal Williams, as well as count on adequate production from his other two in the interim. If it doesn’t go to plan for Sal, his Bills could be in a little trouble. On defense, Sal traded for All-Pro Brandon Graham just before the season, and added to Alex Okafor, form a solid pair up front (Though with no backups). At linebacker, Bobby Wagner is a yearly threat of being the top IDP in the league, and Kiko Alonso and Alex Ogletree are solid (As is Vontaze Burfict when he isn’t suspended, which he currently is). Defensive back has some concern, with only one player among the four current DBs logging an above average statistical season to date, though it also has some upside, particularly with rookie Terrell Edmunds purportedly beating out Morgan Burnett for one of the Steelers’ two safety spots.
X-factor: Running back. Ultimately, Sal has built another good team capable of winning the division and more. But he’s also weaker than normal at a position that is perhaps the most important in all of fantasy football. In fact, among the real contenders, he may be the weakest in that regard. But he should have just enough to get through the regular season and tie Garrett’s record for the most-consecutive division wins at 4.
Projected division finish: 1st
Miami Dolphins (Castle)
Last year’s finish: 28th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Castle came into the league with an impressive first season in 2015, winning 7 games and making the playoffs. In the two years since, he has fallen by two wins apiece, down to 5 wins in an injury-riddled 2016 campaign, and just 3 in 2017. Josh is hoping to reverse that trend, and has taken clear steps to remedy the downward trend, both this year and for long-term. First off, he drastically improved at quarterback in the offseason (If in no other way, salary-wise at least), moving Joe Flacco (And his $9 salary) for Blake Bortles. He also upgraded at running back, drafting Sony Michel (Who should have a significant role when healthy, based on what the Patriots invested in him), and Chris Ivory, who could have a starting role once the investigation of the assault/robbery of LeSean McCoy’s ex-girlfriend is concluded. At wideout, Castle’s top-3 options are all solid or better, with Demaryius Thomas, Kenny Stills, and Taylor Gabriel, all seemingly locked into roles in 2018. Furthermore, Willie Snead could exceed expectations in Baltimore. Austin Hooper also gives Miami a startable option at TE, despite the fact he’s underachieved a tick in his first two years. The Dolphins’ defense consists of three solid but not exceptional units that are all pretty equal in talent. The defensive line offers Michael Brockers, Christian Covington, and perhaps early-impact rookie Da’Ron Payne. At linebacker, A.J. Klein, Pernell McPhee, Connor Barwin, and Zadarius Smith all offer bit part roles/scoring, but Whitney Merciuls has been a solid option when healthy. The production of this unit probably depends on whether NaVorro Bowman is signed, and what his role will be if so. Castle has so far been reluctant to release him, which could pay huge dividends. At DB, Terrance Mitchell, Janoris Jenkins, Ken Crawley, and Mike Hilton form a foursome that should be one of the better units at their position, and perhaps, by a slight margin, the best third of this defense.
X-factor: Health and growth. Previous seasons have seen Castle suffer to keep his best lineup, which has sometimes not been very good on its own, on the field (So to speak). If he can get better luck in that department, coupled with a NaVorro Bowman signing, and continue to grow around some of his better pieces, it’s likely that the Dolphins, who face long playoff odds, can improve upon their 3 wins of a year ago, and maybe even enter the conversation for one of the final AFC postseason spots.
Projected division finish: 4th
New England Patriots (Chris)
Last year’s finish: 18th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: Last year, Chris’ Patriots improved by four games, jumping from a dismal 2-10 in 2016 to 6-6 and just missing the playoffs on tie-break scenarios. This year, he returns much of the potent offense that got him there, starting with Dalvin Cook, who was putting the league on notice before going down with an injury and missing the rest of the season. He also has Latavius Murray, who handled the majority of the touches after Cook’s departure, and may take on a significant role in the early going, with Cook still not back to 100% per reports. At wide receiver, the threesome of Chris Hogan, Robby Anderson, and Danny Amendola was as good as any in the league for the first half of last season, and could be again, if the real-life Patriots don’t trade for a receiver, Anderson can stay on the field (And out of trouble off of it), and if Amendola continues to hold off offseason signing Albert Wilson. At TE, second-year athletic freak David Njoku returns, and should have an even larger role in his sophomore campaign, especially with improved quarterback play from the likes of Tyrod Taylor and perhaps first overall pick Baker Mayfield. Andy Dalton is the incumbent at quarterback, though NE made a savvy move by acquiring Jacoby Brissett, given Andrew Luck’s health, and the penchant of the red rocket to go off the rails. If the Patriots’ offense is a Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue, the defense is a “Women of PETA” calendar special (Translation: It’s not much to look at). Defensive back is probably the best position, with an above average or better threesome of Adrian Amos, Kyle Fuller, and Malcolm Butler leading the way. Defensive line is also average or better, with Cameron Jordan trying to follow up on a career-best season, and Jarran Reed a solid option as well. Beyond that, there is only rookie Josh Sweat, who is buried on Philly’s defensive line, and may not contribute fantasy-wise until the mid-to-late parts of the season, if that early. But then there’s the real sore spot of the defense: Linebacker, where the Patriots might have the worst group in the league (Fantasy Pros currently has them projected #31 at the position). Behind Jadeveon Clowney, a fringe fantasy performer himself in non-big play scoring formats, are only Ryan Anderson, Tim Williams, and Josey Jewell. Chris' puzzling release of K.J. Wright, the team's clear best option at the position, this week, certainly doesn't help. has If anything in particular holds this team back from fantasy contention, it will be the lack of emphasis on this position.
X-factor: Linebacker. The rest of the roster looks playoff-worthy, but the LB corps for the Pats could cost them. If New England gets lucky, and all of the other spots where lots of points are projected pull their weight, it might be enough for the offense to drag the defense to a playoff spot. If not, NE could be picking early again in 2019.
Projected division finish: 3rd
New York Jets (Travis)
Last year’s finish: 16th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Travis enters his first season with a Jets team that was designed to win-now, each of the last two years, and it can certainly be argued, failed (Or at least monumentally disappointed) both times. The 2016 team won 8 games in Kevin’s last year, but profiled as a 4-win team based on the number of points scored (They were outscored by their opponents by 50 points, and had one of the easiest strength of schedules in the league). Last year, L.J. continued that tactic, trying to win with a slightly uneven roster, and faired considerably better, winning only 6 games, but outscoring the 2016 team by over 200 points. However, the Jets faced Pittsburgh in the opening round and was soundly beaten. The 2018 team has some of the same strengths, but also some of the same weaknesses. For one, the receiving corps is one of the best/deepest in the league, even after the season-ending injury to Marquise Lee. Adam Thielen leads a group that returns Alshon Jeffery, Marquise Goodwin, and Jehu Chesson, as well as new addition Brandon Marshall. Running back should also be a strength this year, with Kenyan Drake (Who does have concerns over his role), and Duke Johnson manning the spot. The only problem there: Both have Week 11 byes. Case Keenum returns at QB, with Teddy Bridgewater also remaining in the fold as a backup option, who should provide reasonable insurance for Keenum if he is pressed into action. TE is a weak spot, with only Nick Vannett and Virgil Green, neither of whom are slated for major fantasy roles. The defense is only slightly better than New England’s unit for the same reasons. Defensive line is well stocked, with Everson Griffen, Damon Harrison, and Pierre Olsen, as well as rookie Maurice Hurst rounding out the unit. Defensive back is also in a good position, with Harrison Smith leading the way in an impressive group that also contains Adoree’ Jackson, Devin McCourty, and Prince Amukamara. But at linebacker, the Jets only bring Malcolm Smith, Jon Bostic, and Vincent Rey, and Dee Ford to the fight. At present, none of those options project to have a huge role, or much of a fantasy impact.
X-factor: Linebacker. Perhaps the Jets are more insulated with numbers, but it’s still likely not a good unit. If New York is able to trade from its excess, like wide receiver perhaps, it might be beneficial to balance the scoring of a team teetering on a second-consecutive playoff spot for the first time in its history.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Remember to watch out for the eighth and final of our divisional previews tomorrow morning, this time the NFC East. Thanks again guys.
The AFC East has been scattershot the last several years, with Miami, New England, and New York often swapping places, back-and-forth, at the bottom of the division. The East produced two playoff teams for the second consecutive year. Will the division be able to replicate that accomplishment, or potentially even place THREE teams in the playoffs? Will Sal continue to sit on the division throne? Can Castle surprise and outperform expectations? Can New England post another four-game improvement? Will the Jets finally put together the type of season that they were supposedly built for? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Buffalo Bills (Sal)
Last year’s finish: 10th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: 2017 saw Sal win his third-consecutive AFC East Division title, though he fell back a bit from the year before, when he went 10-2 in the regular season and played for a Super Bowl. In fact, 2017 was a three-year low in wins for Buffalo (8), and with the First Round exit in the playoffs, after the Bengals dumped the Bills, Sal’s earliest exit from the playoffs in three tries. Matt Ryan returns at quarterback for Sal, and is joined by several other talented impact players on offense, notably, among the receiving options. Keenan Allen, A.J. Green, and Paul Richardson man the wide receiver position, and Jordan Reed occupying the TE slot. While there is plenty of talent there, all of those players have some pretty serious injury issues (Which obviously skews more towards Allen and Reed in that list). Beyond that, there is not a ton of depth at those positions, with only 5th Round rookie Jordan Lasley buried in Baltimore’s receiving corps, and former UDFA and currently on IR Packer, Jake Kumerow, at wide receiver, and no backup TE. At running back, depth isn’t necessarily a concern, but the high-end is, as none of Sal’s three current RBs (Ty Montgomery, Aaron Jones, and Jordan Wilkins) project as a starter. It appears that he is hoping for Jones to come back after his 2-game suspension and win the job back from Jamaal Williams, as well as count on adequate production from his other two in the interim. If it doesn’t go to plan for Sal, his Bills could be in a little trouble. On defense, Sal traded for All-Pro Brandon Graham just before the season, and added to Alex Okafor, form a solid pair up front (Though with no backups). At linebacker, Bobby Wagner is a yearly threat of being the top IDP in the league, and Kiko Alonso and Alex Ogletree are solid (As is Vontaze Burfict when he isn’t suspended, which he currently is). Defensive back has some concern, with only one player among the four current DBs logging an above average statistical season to date, though it also has some upside, particularly with rookie Terrell Edmunds purportedly beating out Morgan Burnett for one of the Steelers’ two safety spots.
X-factor: Running back. Ultimately, Sal has built another good team capable of winning the division and more. But he’s also weaker than normal at a position that is perhaps the most important in all of fantasy football. In fact, among the real contenders, he may be the weakest in that regard. But he should have just enough to get through the regular season and tie Garrett’s record for the most-consecutive division wins at 4.
Projected division finish: 1st
Miami Dolphins (Castle)
Last year’s finish: 28th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Castle came into the league with an impressive first season in 2015, winning 7 games and making the playoffs. In the two years since, he has fallen by two wins apiece, down to 5 wins in an injury-riddled 2016 campaign, and just 3 in 2017. Josh is hoping to reverse that trend, and has taken clear steps to remedy the downward trend, both this year and for long-term. First off, he drastically improved at quarterback in the offseason (If in no other way, salary-wise at least), moving Joe Flacco (And his $9 salary) for Blake Bortles. He also upgraded at running back, drafting Sony Michel (Who should have a significant role when healthy, based on what the Patriots invested in him), and Chris Ivory, who could have a starting role once the investigation of the assault/robbery of LeSean McCoy’s ex-girlfriend is concluded. At wideout, Castle’s top-3 options are all solid or better, with Demaryius Thomas, Kenny Stills, and Taylor Gabriel, all seemingly locked into roles in 2018. Furthermore, Willie Snead could exceed expectations in Baltimore. Austin Hooper also gives Miami a startable option at TE, despite the fact he’s underachieved a tick in his first two years. The Dolphins’ defense consists of three solid but not exceptional units that are all pretty equal in talent. The defensive line offers Michael Brockers, Christian Covington, and perhaps early-impact rookie Da’Ron Payne. At linebacker, A.J. Klein, Pernell McPhee, Connor Barwin, and Zadarius Smith all offer bit part roles/scoring, but Whitney Merciuls has been a solid option when healthy. The production of this unit probably depends on whether NaVorro Bowman is signed, and what his role will be if so. Castle has so far been reluctant to release him, which could pay huge dividends. At DB, Terrance Mitchell, Janoris Jenkins, Ken Crawley, and Mike Hilton form a foursome that should be one of the better units at their position, and perhaps, by a slight margin, the best third of this defense.
X-factor: Health and growth. Previous seasons have seen Castle suffer to keep his best lineup, which has sometimes not been very good on its own, on the field (So to speak). If he can get better luck in that department, coupled with a NaVorro Bowman signing, and continue to grow around some of his better pieces, it’s likely that the Dolphins, who face long playoff odds, can improve upon their 3 wins of a year ago, and maybe even enter the conversation for one of the final AFC postseason spots.
Projected division finish: 4th
New England Patriots (Chris)
Last year’s finish: 18th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: Last year, Chris’ Patriots improved by four games, jumping from a dismal 2-10 in 2016 to 6-6 and just missing the playoffs on tie-break scenarios. This year, he returns much of the potent offense that got him there, starting with Dalvin Cook, who was putting the league on notice before going down with an injury and missing the rest of the season. He also has Latavius Murray, who handled the majority of the touches after Cook’s departure, and may take on a significant role in the early going, with Cook still not back to 100% per reports. At wide receiver, the threesome of Chris Hogan, Robby Anderson, and Danny Amendola was as good as any in the league for the first half of last season, and could be again, if the real-life Patriots don’t trade for a receiver, Anderson can stay on the field (And out of trouble off of it), and if Amendola continues to hold off offseason signing Albert Wilson. At TE, second-year athletic freak David Njoku returns, and should have an even larger role in his sophomore campaign, especially with improved quarterback play from the likes of Tyrod Taylor and perhaps first overall pick Baker Mayfield. Andy Dalton is the incumbent at quarterback, though NE made a savvy move by acquiring Jacoby Brissett, given Andrew Luck’s health, and the penchant of the red rocket to go off the rails. If the Patriots’ offense is a Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue, the defense is a “Women of PETA” calendar special (Translation: It’s not much to look at). Defensive back is probably the best position, with an above average or better threesome of Adrian Amos, Kyle Fuller, and Malcolm Butler leading the way. Defensive line is also average or better, with Cameron Jordan trying to follow up on a career-best season, and Jarran Reed a solid option as well. Beyond that, there is only rookie Josh Sweat, who is buried on Philly’s defensive line, and may not contribute fantasy-wise until the mid-to-late parts of the season, if that early. But then there’s the real sore spot of the defense: Linebacker, where the Patriots might have the worst group in the league (Fantasy Pros currently has them projected #31 at the position). Behind Jadeveon Clowney, a fringe fantasy performer himself in non-big play scoring formats, are only Ryan Anderson, Tim Williams, and Josey Jewell. Chris' puzzling release of K.J. Wright, the team's clear best option at the position, this week, certainly doesn't help. has If anything in particular holds this team back from fantasy contention, it will be the lack of emphasis on this position.
X-factor: Linebacker. The rest of the roster looks playoff-worthy, but the LB corps for the Pats could cost them. If New England gets lucky, and all of the other spots where lots of points are projected pull their weight, it might be enough for the offense to drag the defense to a playoff spot. If not, NE could be picking early again in 2019.
Projected division finish: 3rd
New York Jets (Travis)
Last year’s finish: 16th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Travis enters his first season with a Jets team that was designed to win-now, each of the last two years, and it can certainly be argued, failed (Or at least monumentally disappointed) both times. The 2016 team won 8 games in Kevin’s last year, but profiled as a 4-win team based on the number of points scored (They were outscored by their opponents by 50 points, and had one of the easiest strength of schedules in the league). Last year, L.J. continued that tactic, trying to win with a slightly uneven roster, and faired considerably better, winning only 6 games, but outscoring the 2016 team by over 200 points. However, the Jets faced Pittsburgh in the opening round and was soundly beaten. The 2018 team has some of the same strengths, but also some of the same weaknesses. For one, the receiving corps is one of the best/deepest in the league, even after the season-ending injury to Marquise Lee. Adam Thielen leads a group that returns Alshon Jeffery, Marquise Goodwin, and Jehu Chesson, as well as new addition Brandon Marshall. Running back should also be a strength this year, with Kenyan Drake (Who does have concerns over his role), and Duke Johnson manning the spot. The only problem there: Both have Week 11 byes. Case Keenum returns at QB, with Teddy Bridgewater also remaining in the fold as a backup option, who should provide reasonable insurance for Keenum if he is pressed into action. TE is a weak spot, with only Nick Vannett and Virgil Green, neither of whom are slated for major fantasy roles. The defense is only slightly better than New England’s unit for the same reasons. Defensive line is well stocked, with Everson Griffen, Damon Harrison, and Pierre Olsen, as well as rookie Maurice Hurst rounding out the unit. Defensive back is also in a good position, with Harrison Smith leading the way in an impressive group that also contains Adoree’ Jackson, Devin McCourty, and Prince Amukamara. But at linebacker, the Jets only bring Malcolm Smith, Jon Bostic, and Vincent Rey, and Dee Ford to the fight. At present, none of those options project to have a huge role, or much of a fantasy impact.
X-factor: Linebacker. Perhaps the Jets are more insulated with numbers, but it’s still likely not a good unit. If New York is able to trade from its excess, like wide receiver perhaps, it might be beneficial to balance the scoring of a team teetering on a second-consecutive playoff spot for the first time in its history.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Remember to watch out for the eighth and final of our divisional previews tomorrow morning, this time the NFC East. Thanks again guys.