Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Sept 6, 2018 4:24:41 GMT -5
NFC SOUTH
The NFC South, long thought to be a laggard by performance, is changing its act, as all four teams look to be at least respectable this year, though more work is needed on the lower end of the totem pole. Justin and Vic have alternated control of the division the last two years, and have been competitive with one another, including in the playoffs, but will one seize control of the division over another for good this year? Will Tampa Bay’s new digs start to insert Mike into the conversation, and back up all the flash? Can Atlanta join TB to end a half-decade-long trend of being bottom feeders of the league? All of those things and more can happen in 2018 in the NFC South. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Atlanta Falcons (Ryan)
Last year’s finish: 31st (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: What a difference a year can make. Tim, the perennial underachiever (And once 4-8 division champion), finished last in 2016, granting him the right to draft #1 overall pick Leonard Fournette. He also traded for Demario Davis last offseason, right before he was ousted from Cleveland and returned to his friendly confines of New York—and he promptly had the bet season of his life. So it wasn’t all bad from Tim. However, after it was found out that Tim hadn’t been setting his lineup and was starting inactive players, he chose to leave the league. After his exit, Andrew ran his team for the league, and acquired All-World quarterback Aaron Rodgers. That was a decision that pushed the Falcons’ timeline ahead a couple of years, and could go really well, or really poorly, depending on how well Ryan, the new Atlanta GM, can surround him with talent. Outside of those top-two, there are nice ancillary pieces, like at TE, where the Dirty Birds sport Trey Burton and Eric Ebron, as well as Nelson Agholor at WR. Beyond that, there isn’t much on that side of the ball, save for exciting rookie D.J. Chark, and another rookie who could be the long-term replacement for Greg Olsen, Ian Thomas. On the opposite side of the ball, Ryan’s inaugural squad sports the aforementioned Davis, as well as DBs Eddie Jackson, and Marcus Williams, with defensive lineman Dion Jordan fronting a unit of two on the line (Only one currently on a team after yesterday). Rookie Harold Landry could be one of the very few OLBs to make a true fantasy impact in this league, but all things considered, this is an absolutely underwhelming unit that could be bottom-5 in the league.
X-factor: Continue to improve the roster. Frankly, Atlanta just isn’t there yet—even in this NFC. But, it’s conceivable that if he adds an appropriate amount of playmakers on both sides of the ball, that Ryan may be able to seriously contend for a playoff spot, and even a division title, as early as 2019.
Projected division finish: 4th
Carolina Panthers (Justin)
Last year’s finish: 5th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Justin finished 2017 fifth in the league, but with a sore spot, no doubt—losing to division rival New Orleans, who has had his number, eliminating him from the playoffs in 2017 (Despite a gulf in class between the two rosters in Carolina’s favor at that point), and beating him for the division title in 2016. But another season deeper into his plan, the dominant roster that Justin has crafted over the years just continues to get better, and many projections, including my own, think this is his best team. It starts off on offense, with a lineup that sports fourth-year pro Marcus Mariota at quarterback, with Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard at running back, Odell Beckham Jr. and Marvin Jones at receiver, and second-year sensation Evan Engram at TE. Fantasy Pros has the Panthers with the league’s third-best running backs, fourth-best receivers, and seventh-best tight end, and that goes a long way towards their second-best starting unit. On the offensive bench, it’s a relatively nondescript cast of players who can probably fill in admirably, but likely will just be average fantasy commodities in 2018. Despite trading away Brandon Graham prior to the season, Justin’s DL still has plenty of talent with Grady Jarrett and Nazir Jones, and linebacker is elite in the non-Joe Flacco way, with Lavonte David, Danny Trevathan, and Vince Williams all manning the middle (Though three linebackers is pretty light for a team of this caliber). Defensive backs Jordan Poyer and Tyrann Mathieu head a group that has the talent to create separation from opponents’ DB corps, and help put games away from a spot that rarely does so. However, it’s more of the same on the defensive pine—guys who may not contribute significantly this year fantasy-wise.
X-factor: Health. Carolina has as good a team as any, but if there are any deficiencies, they will only be shown if and when one of Carolina’s bench options is thrust into the lineup. Otherwise, Justin’s Panthers are a strong bet to repeat as NFC South Champions, and perhaps go even further than they did last year.
Projected division finish: 1st
New Orleans Saints (Vic)
Last year’s finish: 4th (Division: 2nd
Outlook: Vic has been in the league since 2014, and after taking his lumps in his inaugural season (N.O. went 1-11 that year), rebuilding for the ill-equipped previous owner, Danny (Who had an infatuation with 3rd Round Rookie Draft picks), he has turned the Saints into one of the league’s most consistent teams, making the playoffs and finishing over .500 each year, and winning a division title in 2016. But despite a lethargic 2017 down the stretch for the Saints, and Vic not setting his lineup on several occasions, the Who Dat squad backed into the playoffs and ended up finishing fourth, a personal best for Vic. While this team doesn’t quite have the verve of his 10-win 2016 team, there are a number of reasons to think that Vic can improve upon his regular season showing of a year ago, not the least of which is…he still has basically three starting running backs: Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman (Freeman’s handcuff, but a top-25 option in each of the last two seasons), and Jay Ajayi. That’s a hallmark that few teams in this league can claim. In addition, Doug Martin, who has somehow ingratiated himself into Jon Gruden’s regressive, disaster-to-be offense in 2018, and his injured backfield mate DeAndre Washington, also occupy spots on New Orleans’ roster. But where running back is a strength, the rest of the offense, beyond Jarvis Landry, has some issues. For starters, none of the receivers (Including tight ends) other than Mike Williams, seem ready to contribute fantasy-wise in 2018. Tyler Higbee of the Rams may have some viability as a streamer on weeks where he outperforms his TEBC-mate Gerald Everett, but who comes out on top, if anyone, will likely be an unpredictable week-to-week thing. And at quarterback, a triumvirate of uninspiring (To date) passers complicate things, as DeShone Kizer will be a backup, as will rookie Josh Allen, to 5 INT Nathan Pickoffman (I mean, I’m not wrong…it was just a bad pun). Allen should overtake him shortly, because of his rocket arm and despite his lackluster (See, I can say nice things) decision-making/accuracy, so long as he can complete passes to people that are NOT in the stands (Like he attempted to do at the Senior Bowl, when either Steve (DEN) or I must have been his intended receiver), and can avoid sending N-word tweets. Someone’s bound to get defensive over that, so on that note, let’s take a look at the defense. Currently, N.O. only has one defensive lineman, so it’s hard to project anything there. At linebacker, astute mid-season signing of a year ago, Anthony Hitchens, returns with Reggie Ragland, who again, Vic smartly refused to give up on. The only question is, given that they are both inside linebackers in real-life Kansas City’s defense, will they compete with each other for tackles and limit each other’s upside? Even if so, the Saints have Nigel Bradham flanking the two KC LB mates after a game 1 suspension, though as Mike Hull is on injured reserve, that is all from that position. Defensive back is a mixed bag, with highly projected options Tashaun Gipson and Justin Simmons joined by Tedric Thompson and Ron Parker. Ultimately, there needs to be some upgrades made to the Saints’ defense, because it’s feast or famine.
X-factor: Balance. The overload of offensive players, talent and numbers-wise, is bankrupting the defense. But even positionally, adding more wide receivers at the expense of running backs, perhaps, would seem a prudent strategy if Vic wants to have a rounded enough roster to compete with Justin.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Mike)
Last year’s finish: 32nd (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Tampa Bay’s season a year ago was among the worst in league history, as the Buccaneers failed to even reach 1,000 points for the season. For that accomplishment, Mike had the honor of drafting one of the best collegiate running backs to ever enter the draft—Saquon Barkley, a potentially franchise-altering player, who is already projected by many as a top-10 player in fantasy. Just like Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliott before him, Barkley has a true 3-down skill set, perhaps even more so than any of those three. He is a near lock for fantasy stardom, health provided. Pairing him with Jared Goff, explosive rookie James Washington at WR, and Kyle Rudolph at TE, Mike quickly has four centerpieces with which to build an offense from…and not much else. In fact, beyond those four, only recently-acquired WR Allen Hurns projects to have a fantasy-relevant role on offense (An offense that at present, contains 13 players), until Dont’a Foreman’s presumptive midseason return from injury. So the offense as a whole: Potentially good starting unit, perhaps the worst bench in the league, especially considering how much dead weight there is on the roster on that side of the ball. Defensively, it’s a much-improved unit (Which isn’t saying a lot, because Mike had his 2017 defense ominously close to the 4-man Hickory High School basketball team for most of last year, only JUST satisfying the league requirements for positional minimums, and breaking the spirit of the rule by containing several injured reserve players among those). Demarcus Lawrence and Sheldon Richardson form a potent top-two combo, with Jordan Willis there for absolute emergencies. At linebacker, it’s a similar, bare bones story. Here’s the tale of the tape: Duke Riley kept his job, so he figures to be the biggest contributor on this side of the ball, Anthony Chickillo blocked a punt last year (YAY!), Dorian O’Daniel made the team, and Oren Burks, the most promising of the young linebackers Tampa has by a mile, will miss the first several weeks of the season with an injury. So that is slated to be a rough patch, at least in the early going. On the Defensive Back front, things are considerably rosier. Mike has to consider his drafting of Minkah Fitzpatrick and Jessie Bates hits, as both are opening the season as starting safeties. Add in Kurt Coleman, and though the numbers are low (10 total players for 8 lineup spots) on D, and you’re talking about potentially one of the best DB groups in the league, if not now, soon.
X-factor: Fielding a more balanced roster. The Bucs are an absolute sleeper team given Mike’s history with the team, but he finally has a core that may allow him to compete in some games. I’m not proclaiming that it’s even particularly likely that he nabs one of the last playoff spots, (Especially as long as he continues to prefer keeping five running backs, three of little import, to defensive players to fill out his roster) but at this point, it’s impossible to complete discount.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Remember to watch out for the seventh of our divisional previews, this time the AFC East, which should drop in tomorrow night at the latest. Thanks again guys.
The NFC South, long thought to be a laggard by performance, is changing its act, as all four teams look to be at least respectable this year, though more work is needed on the lower end of the totem pole. Justin and Vic have alternated control of the division the last two years, and have been competitive with one another, including in the playoffs, but will one seize control of the division over another for good this year? Will Tampa Bay’s new digs start to insert Mike into the conversation, and back up all the flash? Can Atlanta join TB to end a half-decade-long trend of being bottom feeders of the league? All of those things and more can happen in 2018 in the NFC South. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Atlanta Falcons (Ryan)
Last year’s finish: 31st (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: What a difference a year can make. Tim, the perennial underachiever (And once 4-8 division champion), finished last in 2016, granting him the right to draft #1 overall pick Leonard Fournette. He also traded for Demario Davis last offseason, right before he was ousted from Cleveland and returned to his friendly confines of New York—and he promptly had the bet season of his life. So it wasn’t all bad from Tim. However, after it was found out that Tim hadn’t been setting his lineup and was starting inactive players, he chose to leave the league. After his exit, Andrew ran his team for the league, and acquired All-World quarterback Aaron Rodgers. That was a decision that pushed the Falcons’ timeline ahead a couple of years, and could go really well, or really poorly, depending on how well Ryan, the new Atlanta GM, can surround him with talent. Outside of those top-two, there are nice ancillary pieces, like at TE, where the Dirty Birds sport Trey Burton and Eric Ebron, as well as Nelson Agholor at WR. Beyond that, there isn’t much on that side of the ball, save for exciting rookie D.J. Chark, and another rookie who could be the long-term replacement for Greg Olsen, Ian Thomas. On the opposite side of the ball, Ryan’s inaugural squad sports the aforementioned Davis, as well as DBs Eddie Jackson, and Marcus Williams, with defensive lineman Dion Jordan fronting a unit of two on the line (Only one currently on a team after yesterday). Rookie Harold Landry could be one of the very few OLBs to make a true fantasy impact in this league, but all things considered, this is an absolutely underwhelming unit that could be bottom-5 in the league.
X-factor: Continue to improve the roster. Frankly, Atlanta just isn’t there yet—even in this NFC. But, it’s conceivable that if he adds an appropriate amount of playmakers on both sides of the ball, that Ryan may be able to seriously contend for a playoff spot, and even a division title, as early as 2019.
Projected division finish: 4th
Carolina Panthers (Justin)
Last year’s finish: 5th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Justin finished 2017 fifth in the league, but with a sore spot, no doubt—losing to division rival New Orleans, who has had his number, eliminating him from the playoffs in 2017 (Despite a gulf in class between the two rosters in Carolina’s favor at that point), and beating him for the division title in 2016. But another season deeper into his plan, the dominant roster that Justin has crafted over the years just continues to get better, and many projections, including my own, think this is his best team. It starts off on offense, with a lineup that sports fourth-year pro Marcus Mariota at quarterback, with Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard at running back, Odell Beckham Jr. and Marvin Jones at receiver, and second-year sensation Evan Engram at TE. Fantasy Pros has the Panthers with the league’s third-best running backs, fourth-best receivers, and seventh-best tight end, and that goes a long way towards their second-best starting unit. On the offensive bench, it’s a relatively nondescript cast of players who can probably fill in admirably, but likely will just be average fantasy commodities in 2018. Despite trading away Brandon Graham prior to the season, Justin’s DL still has plenty of talent with Grady Jarrett and Nazir Jones, and linebacker is elite in the non-Joe Flacco way, with Lavonte David, Danny Trevathan, and Vince Williams all manning the middle (Though three linebackers is pretty light for a team of this caliber). Defensive backs Jordan Poyer and Tyrann Mathieu head a group that has the talent to create separation from opponents’ DB corps, and help put games away from a spot that rarely does so. However, it’s more of the same on the defensive pine—guys who may not contribute significantly this year fantasy-wise.
X-factor: Health. Carolina has as good a team as any, but if there are any deficiencies, they will only be shown if and when one of Carolina’s bench options is thrust into the lineup. Otherwise, Justin’s Panthers are a strong bet to repeat as NFC South Champions, and perhaps go even further than they did last year.
Projected division finish: 1st
New Orleans Saints (Vic)
Last year’s finish: 4th (Division: 2nd
Outlook: Vic has been in the league since 2014, and after taking his lumps in his inaugural season (N.O. went 1-11 that year), rebuilding for the ill-equipped previous owner, Danny (Who had an infatuation with 3rd Round Rookie Draft picks), he has turned the Saints into one of the league’s most consistent teams, making the playoffs and finishing over .500 each year, and winning a division title in 2016. But despite a lethargic 2017 down the stretch for the Saints, and Vic not setting his lineup on several occasions, the Who Dat squad backed into the playoffs and ended up finishing fourth, a personal best for Vic. While this team doesn’t quite have the verve of his 10-win 2016 team, there are a number of reasons to think that Vic can improve upon his regular season showing of a year ago, not the least of which is…he still has basically three starting running backs: Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman (Freeman’s handcuff, but a top-25 option in each of the last two seasons), and Jay Ajayi. That’s a hallmark that few teams in this league can claim. In addition, Doug Martin, who has somehow ingratiated himself into Jon Gruden’s regressive, disaster-to-be offense in 2018, and his injured backfield mate DeAndre Washington, also occupy spots on New Orleans’ roster. But where running back is a strength, the rest of the offense, beyond Jarvis Landry, has some issues. For starters, none of the receivers (Including tight ends) other than Mike Williams, seem ready to contribute fantasy-wise in 2018. Tyler Higbee of the Rams may have some viability as a streamer on weeks where he outperforms his TEBC-mate Gerald Everett, but who comes out on top, if anyone, will likely be an unpredictable week-to-week thing. And at quarterback, a triumvirate of uninspiring (To date) passers complicate things, as DeShone Kizer will be a backup, as will rookie Josh Allen, to 5 INT Nathan Pickoffman (I mean, I’m not wrong…it was just a bad pun). Allen should overtake him shortly, because of his rocket arm and despite his lackluster (See, I can say nice things) decision-making/accuracy, so long as he can complete passes to people that are NOT in the stands (Like he attempted to do at the Senior Bowl, when either Steve (DEN) or I must have been his intended receiver), and can avoid sending N-word tweets. Someone’s bound to get defensive over that, so on that note, let’s take a look at the defense. Currently, N.O. only has one defensive lineman, so it’s hard to project anything there. At linebacker, astute mid-season signing of a year ago, Anthony Hitchens, returns with Reggie Ragland, who again, Vic smartly refused to give up on. The only question is, given that they are both inside linebackers in real-life Kansas City’s defense, will they compete with each other for tackles and limit each other’s upside? Even if so, the Saints have Nigel Bradham flanking the two KC LB mates after a game 1 suspension, though as Mike Hull is on injured reserve, that is all from that position. Defensive back is a mixed bag, with highly projected options Tashaun Gipson and Justin Simmons joined by Tedric Thompson and Ron Parker. Ultimately, there needs to be some upgrades made to the Saints’ defense, because it’s feast or famine.
X-factor: Balance. The overload of offensive players, talent and numbers-wise, is bankrupting the defense. But even positionally, adding more wide receivers at the expense of running backs, perhaps, would seem a prudent strategy if Vic wants to have a rounded enough roster to compete with Justin.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Mike)
Last year’s finish: 32nd (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Tampa Bay’s season a year ago was among the worst in league history, as the Buccaneers failed to even reach 1,000 points for the season. For that accomplishment, Mike had the honor of drafting one of the best collegiate running backs to ever enter the draft—Saquon Barkley, a potentially franchise-altering player, who is already projected by many as a top-10 player in fantasy. Just like Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliott before him, Barkley has a true 3-down skill set, perhaps even more so than any of those three. He is a near lock for fantasy stardom, health provided. Pairing him with Jared Goff, explosive rookie James Washington at WR, and Kyle Rudolph at TE, Mike quickly has four centerpieces with which to build an offense from…and not much else. In fact, beyond those four, only recently-acquired WR Allen Hurns projects to have a fantasy-relevant role on offense (An offense that at present, contains 13 players), until Dont’a Foreman’s presumptive midseason return from injury. So the offense as a whole: Potentially good starting unit, perhaps the worst bench in the league, especially considering how much dead weight there is on the roster on that side of the ball. Defensively, it’s a much-improved unit (Which isn’t saying a lot, because Mike had his 2017 defense ominously close to the 4-man Hickory High School basketball team for most of last year, only JUST satisfying the league requirements for positional minimums, and breaking the spirit of the rule by containing several injured reserve players among those). Demarcus Lawrence and Sheldon Richardson form a potent top-two combo, with Jordan Willis there for absolute emergencies. At linebacker, it’s a similar, bare bones story. Here’s the tale of the tape: Duke Riley kept his job, so he figures to be the biggest contributor on this side of the ball, Anthony Chickillo blocked a punt last year (YAY!), Dorian O’Daniel made the team, and Oren Burks, the most promising of the young linebackers Tampa has by a mile, will miss the first several weeks of the season with an injury. So that is slated to be a rough patch, at least in the early going. On the Defensive Back front, things are considerably rosier. Mike has to consider his drafting of Minkah Fitzpatrick and Jessie Bates hits, as both are opening the season as starting safeties. Add in Kurt Coleman, and though the numbers are low (10 total players for 8 lineup spots) on D, and you’re talking about potentially one of the best DB groups in the league, if not now, soon.
X-factor: Fielding a more balanced roster. The Bucs are an absolute sleeper team given Mike’s history with the team, but he finally has a core that may allow him to compete in some games. I’m not proclaiming that it’s even particularly likely that he nabs one of the last playoff spots, (Especially as long as he continues to prefer keeping five running backs, three of little import, to defensive players to fill out his roster) but at this point, it’s impossible to complete discount.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Remember to watch out for the seventh of our divisional previews, this time the AFC East, which should drop in tomorrow night at the latest. Thanks again guys.