Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Aug 27, 2018 2:56:23 GMT -5
NFC NORTH
Now stepping to the plate (Cross-sport reference for the win), the NFC North, a division that produced its first champion last year in the Minnesota Vikings. Gone, for the first time, is Ryan, and so the landscape will look a lot different, as only Matt (MIN) remains as a quasi-original member (MFLer that started in 2010). Will he be able to hold on to his title and defend it from the newbies now that Ryan, Brendan, and JoeBobby are all gone? Will Christian be able to put his failed venture as OAK in the rearview? Will Mike make an impressive debut? Can Charlie finally turn the corner after a 4-win improvement in 2017? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Chicago Bears (Charlie)
Last year’s finish: 24th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: Charlie’s 5-7 2017 season was his second-best since entering the league in 2015, and a dramatic improvement from the nightmarish 2016 season in which he finished 1-11. However, based off of this division’s history, 2018 looks like it’s going to be somewhere in between the two if this prediction is right. As of right now, Charlie doesn’t have a projected starter at quarterback or running back. In fact, beyond Jaron Brown and Ryan Griffin, there is not another starter in the entire offensive unit. If Rob Kelley should seize control of the backfield back from Adrian Peterson, then that might change. Also, the Patriots receivers, Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson, as well as Amara Darboh and Wayne Gallman might materialize into some semblance of a supporting cast. But I’d say those are rather long odds to count on that from all or even half of them. Defensively, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. Dante Fowler and David Irving man the defensive line, but with Irving getting another 4-game PED suspension, it means Robert Nkemdiche, who has been uninspiring both in real life and in fantasy, will be pressed into action as Chicago’s starting DL, at least as presently constructed. Further complicating Chicago’s fortunes were preseason injuries to both of his linebackers—Leonard Floyd and Jake Ryan, the latter a season-ending one, to perhaps Charlie’s best defensive player (Or altogether). The secondary is quite a bit better, with currently seven players on the roster, including Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Eric Berry, D.J. Swearinger, Xavier Rhodes, Kendall Fuller, Xavien Howard, and the also suspended-for-4-games Jimmy Smith.
X-factor: Making an effort in 2018. What Charlie has done in compiling draft picks is commendable—but has seemed to come at the expense of his 2018 team. While he’ll be forced to trade for a QB at least, should things stay the way they are now, he’ll also need to invest heavily in RB, WR and LB to field even a quasi-competitive team. Perhaps he can do that by trading from his war chest of picks and endless DBs. If on the other hand, Charlie is committed to the Bears finishing dead last this year, he’s well on his way.
Projected division finish: 4th
Detroit Lions (Christian)
Last year’s finish: 14th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: For the first time in league history, someone other than Ryan is running the Lions. But, many of Ryan’s old favorites remain intact, even though he neglected his team for much of his last year-plus. Cam Newton returns at quarterback for the only team he’s ever known—the Lions (In this league at least). The rest of the offense is functional, but there are some question marks. Namely, will Bilal Powell, who is part of a timeshare with Isaiah Crowell, and maybe only until Elijah McGuire returns, and Matt Breida, be enough at running back for Detroit? Wide receiver is slightly better equipped, offering Tyler Lockett, Kelvin Benjamin (Also known as Anthony Anderson), DeSean Jackson, and Terrelle Pryor. None are superstars in their own right, but that’s at worst one of the top-half WR units in this league. Maybe the sum of their parts can be better than any one of them. Tyler Eifert is the only TE on roster at present (Though Christian plans to change that by his free agent bid on Clive Walford last night). The key for him is obviously health. Defensively, it’s a rather strong unit, with Vic Beasley, Carlos Dunlap, and Vinny Curry manning the defensive line, and rookie Leighton Vander Esch leading a LB corps with new addition Derrick Johnson, and fringe-starters Jatavis Brown and Elandon Roberts. Detroit’s defensive backfield is one of the best in the league, if not numbers-wise, sporting Reshad Jones, Landon Collins, and Marshon Lattimore, DBs No. 1, 7, and 27 a year ago. Depth could be an issue, especially at LB, where Micah Kiser, who is not locked into a meaningful year-1 role, is the only remaining name.
X-factor: Running back/Linebacker. Additional improvements at these positions are needed. How or whether Christian will choose to fortify them is to be seen, but even as currently constructed, he should have well more than enough to finish 2nd in the division and perhaps snag a playoff berth in what certainly looks like a repeat of 2017, weak (Beyond the top-4 teams) NFC.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Green Bay Packers (Mike)
Last year’s finish: 30th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Mike takes over for a previous Mike, who in 2017, checked out no later than Week 2. Let’s hope the current Mike is better for the Packers’ chances. The good news is, there is a solid core of players who will, if nothing else, score some points this year (Meaning, as compared to Charlie’s team and much of Mike’s team last year, many of these players will have SOME role). Quarterback is stocked on a one-year basis again, with Philip Rivers and his $11 salary in tow. Running back, however, is a much less certain area, with three running backs on roster currently, and none of them projected for more than a complementary role (Including Jonathan Stewart, C.J. Procise, and Jeremy Hill, the latter two not even locks to make their team…and actually, none of the three are). From that group though, there is the potential to surprise. For example, if Saquon Barkley gets injured in the regular season, perhaps Stewart shakes off an unspeakably-bad preseason (And the last two seasons) and returns value, if Procise gets healthy and wins the Seahawks’ third-down job, or if Hill becomes New England’s big back and scores a couple of touchdowns. Otherwise, that position could be a black hole, bringing the whole offense and team down with it. At WR, Adam Humphries, Donte Moncrief, and a resurgent Curtis Samuel (Who appeared dead as a dynasty asset prior to a good and healthy preseason) present an unheralded group that could also outperform expectations. Brandon LaFell being cut was a shock, but his signing with another team could be an equally big shot in the arm for this offense. Greg Olsen (Or G-Money from the Seventh Floor Crew) returns at TE, and there should be no doubts about what he can do if healthy. On the side of the ball that wins championships, two Prestons man the middle: Brown and Smith, as well as 2017 fantasy and real-life disappointment Kamalei Correa. Earmarked for a starting job in 2017, he’s not even guaranteed a roster spot this season, prompting some to leave him off their 53-man projections. Beyond those three are Marquel Lee, who profiles as a fringe-prospect and potential ILB starter for Oakland (Or I guess Las Vegas potentially) down the line, and Dannell Ellerbe, who hasn’t had even a sniff of interest on the open market, and probably should just be cut for the roster space. Up front, Linval Joseph, Lawrence Guy, and Jerry Hughes form a formidable unit that is top-half in the league. In the back end, Malcolm Jenkins leads the way, buoyed by A.J. Bouye (Again, I promise this was unintentional), and the surprising recent-release George Iloka, who now has gone from a projected starter to split-time player in a matter of days. That doesn’t help the Packers’ situation, though the signing of DRC to the Raiders, especially with the whispers of him potentially being moved to or even started at safety in the water supply, may.
X-factor: RB. Read above.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Minnesota Vikings (Matt)
Last year’s finish: 1st (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Matt took the league by storm last year, losing his first game against Cincinnati, and then rolling off 15-straight to take the league title…and with Jacoby Brissett at QB (Which just goes to show, again, you can win with anyone at QB. Our last four champions’ QBs: Brissett, the 2016 version of Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, and the 2014 version of Alex Smith). So with Andrew Luck back at the helm, the Vikings should take off to a stratospheric level, right? Well, not so fast my friend (As Lee Corso said before he either started drinking on live TV, or got dementia, I’m still not sure). While there are clear reasons for optimism—the return of Luck and rookie sensation Alvin Kamara, fantasy’s #3 RB a year ago as a rookie (Whom Matt acquired in a foolishly one-sided trade with Steve (DEN)…sorry Steve. The tale of the tape: A 2nd and Kevin Minter for Kamara), for example, there are an equal number of reasons to temper expectations, including Hunter Henry’s season-ending ACL tear and no TE on an NFL roster currently in the Vikings’ coffers, the muddled roles of Martavis Bryant, Carlos Hyde, T.J. Yeldon, Michael Floyd, and Laquon Treadwell (And Eric Decker’s retirement yesterday). And that’s just on offense. BUT, the offense does have Luck, Kamara, Davante Adams, Hyde (Who should start the year as the Browns’ lead back at least), rookie Courtland Sutton (Who has impressed in the preseason, and won Denver’s #3 wideout role, which is worth something), and Bryant, should he be able to put it all together in his head. For reference, Matt finished last year 7th in points offensively with very much the same unit minus Luck. So he should do plenty well with him, provided health. Defensively there are issues as well. For example, Antonio Morrison logging 109 tackles last year to lead the real-life Colts, and falling as far as fourth on their ILB depth chart (Though his trade to Green Bay yesterday should at least help facilitate SOME value in the short term until Oren Burks returns). Then there’s Kendall Beckwith (2017 rookie fantasy darling before fading down the stretch), who has yet to resume practicing and apparently will miss the start of the season. Add to that Beckwith’s teammate Justin Evans, whose ankle injury puts him in doubt for Week 1, and finally Earl Thomas, who has been in an oft-reported and protracted holdout with the Seahawks. Some of these issues need to be settled prior to Week 1, but even if they aren’t, there are still ample assets to weather the storm, such as: C.J. Mosley, Jarrad Davis, rookie LB Rashaan Evans (Though he’s currently nursing an injury of his own that imperils his Week 1 chances), defensive linemen Frank Clark and Cameron Wake, and DBs Sean Davis and Marcus Maye. So again, not to harp on Minnesota’s deficiencies, but I think it can be plainly illustrated that there are some, perhaps more than normal for a defending-champion, especially in the early going. But he will still have plenty to win this division, short of a catastrophic loss of key players. And, he will get his opportunity to, as Michael Scott put it, “revenge” himself in Week 1 against the only team that beat him a year ago. Hopefully for Matt’s sake, his plan goes better than Michael’s.
X-factor: Getting guys back. If Matt is able to get back the likes of the Evanses, Beckwith, and Thomas, he will be more than okay. Oh, and also tight end. He’ll probably need one of those.
Projected division finish: 1st
Remember to watch out for the fourth of our divisional previews, this time the NFC West, which should drop in the next few days. Thanks again guys.
Now stepping to the plate (Cross-sport reference for the win), the NFC North, a division that produced its first champion last year in the Minnesota Vikings. Gone, for the first time, is Ryan, and so the landscape will look a lot different, as only Matt (MIN) remains as a quasi-original member (MFLer that started in 2010). Will he be able to hold on to his title and defend it from the newbies now that Ryan, Brendan, and JoeBobby are all gone? Will Christian be able to put his failed venture as OAK in the rearview? Will Mike make an impressive debut? Can Charlie finally turn the corner after a 4-win improvement in 2017? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Chicago Bears (Charlie)
Last year’s finish: 24th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: Charlie’s 5-7 2017 season was his second-best since entering the league in 2015, and a dramatic improvement from the nightmarish 2016 season in which he finished 1-11. However, based off of this division’s history, 2018 looks like it’s going to be somewhere in between the two if this prediction is right. As of right now, Charlie doesn’t have a projected starter at quarterback or running back. In fact, beyond Jaron Brown and Ryan Griffin, there is not another starter in the entire offensive unit. If Rob Kelley should seize control of the backfield back from Adrian Peterson, then that might change. Also, the Patriots receivers, Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson, as well as Amara Darboh and Wayne Gallman might materialize into some semblance of a supporting cast. But I’d say those are rather long odds to count on that from all or even half of them. Defensively, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. Dante Fowler and David Irving man the defensive line, but with Irving getting another 4-game PED suspension, it means Robert Nkemdiche, who has been uninspiring both in real life and in fantasy, will be pressed into action as Chicago’s starting DL, at least as presently constructed. Further complicating Chicago’s fortunes were preseason injuries to both of his linebackers—Leonard Floyd and Jake Ryan, the latter a season-ending one, to perhaps Charlie’s best defensive player (Or altogether). The secondary is quite a bit better, with currently seven players on the roster, including Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Eric Berry, D.J. Swearinger, Xavier Rhodes, Kendall Fuller, Xavien Howard, and the also suspended-for-4-games Jimmy Smith.
X-factor: Making an effort in 2018. What Charlie has done in compiling draft picks is commendable—but has seemed to come at the expense of his 2018 team. While he’ll be forced to trade for a QB at least, should things stay the way they are now, he’ll also need to invest heavily in RB, WR and LB to field even a quasi-competitive team. Perhaps he can do that by trading from his war chest of picks and endless DBs. If on the other hand, Charlie is committed to the Bears finishing dead last this year, he’s well on his way.
Projected division finish: 4th
Detroit Lions (Christian)
Last year’s finish: 14th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: For the first time in league history, someone other than Ryan is running the Lions. But, many of Ryan’s old favorites remain intact, even though he neglected his team for much of his last year-plus. Cam Newton returns at quarterback for the only team he’s ever known—the Lions (In this league at least). The rest of the offense is functional, but there are some question marks. Namely, will Bilal Powell, who is part of a timeshare with Isaiah Crowell, and maybe only until Elijah McGuire returns, and Matt Breida, be enough at running back for Detroit? Wide receiver is slightly better equipped, offering Tyler Lockett, Kelvin Benjamin (Also known as Anthony Anderson), DeSean Jackson, and Terrelle Pryor. None are superstars in their own right, but that’s at worst one of the top-half WR units in this league. Maybe the sum of their parts can be better than any one of them. Tyler Eifert is the only TE on roster at present (Though Christian plans to change that by his free agent bid on Clive Walford last night). The key for him is obviously health. Defensively, it’s a rather strong unit, with Vic Beasley, Carlos Dunlap, and Vinny Curry manning the defensive line, and rookie Leighton Vander Esch leading a LB corps with new addition Derrick Johnson, and fringe-starters Jatavis Brown and Elandon Roberts. Detroit’s defensive backfield is one of the best in the league, if not numbers-wise, sporting Reshad Jones, Landon Collins, and Marshon Lattimore, DBs No. 1, 7, and 27 a year ago. Depth could be an issue, especially at LB, where Micah Kiser, who is not locked into a meaningful year-1 role, is the only remaining name.
X-factor: Running back/Linebacker. Additional improvements at these positions are needed. How or whether Christian will choose to fortify them is to be seen, but even as currently constructed, he should have well more than enough to finish 2nd in the division and perhaps snag a playoff berth in what certainly looks like a repeat of 2017, weak (Beyond the top-4 teams) NFC.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Green Bay Packers (Mike)
Last year’s finish: 30th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Mike takes over for a previous Mike, who in 2017, checked out no later than Week 2. Let’s hope the current Mike is better for the Packers’ chances. The good news is, there is a solid core of players who will, if nothing else, score some points this year (Meaning, as compared to Charlie’s team and much of Mike’s team last year, many of these players will have SOME role). Quarterback is stocked on a one-year basis again, with Philip Rivers and his $11 salary in tow. Running back, however, is a much less certain area, with three running backs on roster currently, and none of them projected for more than a complementary role (Including Jonathan Stewart, C.J. Procise, and Jeremy Hill, the latter two not even locks to make their team…and actually, none of the three are). From that group though, there is the potential to surprise. For example, if Saquon Barkley gets injured in the regular season, perhaps Stewart shakes off an unspeakably-bad preseason (And the last two seasons) and returns value, if Procise gets healthy and wins the Seahawks’ third-down job, or if Hill becomes New England’s big back and scores a couple of touchdowns. Otherwise, that position could be a black hole, bringing the whole offense and team down with it. At WR, Adam Humphries, Donte Moncrief, and a resurgent Curtis Samuel (Who appeared dead as a dynasty asset prior to a good and healthy preseason) present an unheralded group that could also outperform expectations. Brandon LaFell being cut was a shock, but his signing with another team could be an equally big shot in the arm for this offense. Greg Olsen (Or G-Money from the Seventh Floor Crew) returns at TE, and there should be no doubts about what he can do if healthy. On the side of the ball that wins championships, two Prestons man the middle: Brown and Smith, as well as 2017 fantasy and real-life disappointment Kamalei Correa. Earmarked for a starting job in 2017, he’s not even guaranteed a roster spot this season, prompting some to leave him off their 53-man projections. Beyond those three are Marquel Lee, who profiles as a fringe-prospect and potential ILB starter for Oakland (Or I guess Las Vegas potentially) down the line, and Dannell Ellerbe, who hasn’t had even a sniff of interest on the open market, and probably should just be cut for the roster space. Up front, Linval Joseph, Lawrence Guy, and Jerry Hughes form a formidable unit that is top-half in the league. In the back end, Malcolm Jenkins leads the way, buoyed by A.J. Bouye (Again, I promise this was unintentional), and the surprising recent-release George Iloka, who now has gone from a projected starter to split-time player in a matter of days. That doesn’t help the Packers’ situation, though the signing of DRC to the Raiders, especially with the whispers of him potentially being moved to or even started at safety in the water supply, may.
X-factor: RB. Read above.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Minnesota Vikings (Matt)
Last year’s finish: 1st (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Matt took the league by storm last year, losing his first game against Cincinnati, and then rolling off 15-straight to take the league title…and with Jacoby Brissett at QB (Which just goes to show, again, you can win with anyone at QB. Our last four champions’ QBs: Brissett, the 2016 version of Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, and the 2014 version of Alex Smith). So with Andrew Luck back at the helm, the Vikings should take off to a stratospheric level, right? Well, not so fast my friend (As Lee Corso said before he either started drinking on live TV, or got dementia, I’m still not sure). While there are clear reasons for optimism—the return of Luck and rookie sensation Alvin Kamara, fantasy’s #3 RB a year ago as a rookie (Whom Matt acquired in a foolishly one-sided trade with Steve (DEN)…sorry Steve. The tale of the tape: A 2nd and Kevin Minter for Kamara), for example, there are an equal number of reasons to temper expectations, including Hunter Henry’s season-ending ACL tear and no TE on an NFL roster currently in the Vikings’ coffers, the muddled roles of Martavis Bryant, Carlos Hyde, T.J. Yeldon, Michael Floyd, and Laquon Treadwell (And Eric Decker’s retirement yesterday). And that’s just on offense. BUT, the offense does have Luck, Kamara, Davante Adams, Hyde (Who should start the year as the Browns’ lead back at least), rookie Courtland Sutton (Who has impressed in the preseason, and won Denver’s #3 wideout role, which is worth something), and Bryant, should he be able to put it all together in his head. For reference, Matt finished last year 7th in points offensively with very much the same unit minus Luck. So he should do plenty well with him, provided health. Defensively there are issues as well. For example, Antonio Morrison logging 109 tackles last year to lead the real-life Colts, and falling as far as fourth on their ILB depth chart (Though his trade to Green Bay yesterday should at least help facilitate SOME value in the short term until Oren Burks returns). Then there’s Kendall Beckwith (2017 rookie fantasy darling before fading down the stretch), who has yet to resume practicing and apparently will miss the start of the season. Add to that Beckwith’s teammate Justin Evans, whose ankle injury puts him in doubt for Week 1, and finally Earl Thomas, who has been in an oft-reported and protracted holdout with the Seahawks. Some of these issues need to be settled prior to Week 1, but even if they aren’t, there are still ample assets to weather the storm, such as: C.J. Mosley, Jarrad Davis, rookie LB Rashaan Evans (Though he’s currently nursing an injury of his own that imperils his Week 1 chances), defensive linemen Frank Clark and Cameron Wake, and DBs Sean Davis and Marcus Maye. So again, not to harp on Minnesota’s deficiencies, but I think it can be plainly illustrated that there are some, perhaps more than normal for a defending-champion, especially in the early going. But he will still have plenty to win this division, short of a catastrophic loss of key players. And, he will get his opportunity to, as Michael Scott put it, “revenge” himself in Week 1 against the only team that beat him a year ago. Hopefully for Matt’s sake, his plan goes better than Michael’s.
X-factor: Getting guys back. If Matt is able to get back the likes of the Evanses, Beckwith, and Thomas, he will be more than okay. Oh, and also tight end. He’ll probably need one of those.
Projected division finish: 1st
Remember to watch out for the fourth of our divisional previews, this time the NFC West, which should drop in the next few days. Thanks again guys.