Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Aug 22, 2018 3:40:36 GMT -5
AFC SOUTH
Next up on the list, we look in on the AFC South, a division that finished last season with the highest-average finish of any division, despite being projected as the second-worst division in the Pre-Season Divisional Power Rankings. Last year also saw the successful debut of a new owner (Ryan), another deep playoff run by Jacksonville (Jordan), and two .500 seasons from a couple of surprise teams (Indianapolis, J.R., and Tennessee, Laura). Former long-time GM Erik volunteered to step back into the fold, and into the AFC South, though this time with Tennessee rather than Houston. Each has seemingly made some improvements, so it’s entirely possible that we see a similarly, if not more, competitive division race this year. Can J.R. get over the hump and finally make the playoffs? Will Erik’s reentry go as smoothly as he hopes? Will Jordan get back on top? Will Houston keep the title and his bragging rights? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Houston Texans (Ryan)
Last year’s finish: 3rd (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Ryan took the league by storm last year, joining us just on the eve of the season, yet finishing with a 9-3 record, claiming the AFC South title over perennial power, and close friend, Jordan, ripping off two playoff wins, and finishing third overall. That first year (Post year-1 in the league) is rivaled by only two others in recent memory: Mett’s 2014, and Jordan’s 2017, which closely mirror Ryan’s 2017. Will the Texans fare better than Mett did in 2015? Well, that’s a complicated answer. It’s almost certainly a yes, but there are several areas for concern. First off, there isn’t a lot of offensive depth beyond the starting unit. Tom Brady is one of the top-QBs in fantasy (And was No. 2 at the position last year), and DeAndre Hopkins was also WR No. 2 in 2017. So it’s no wonder that’s where Ryan’s bread will be buttered this year. In fact, his lineup does a good job of supplementing them, with Alex Collins, Jimmy Graham, Michael Crabtree, and Nick Chubb. For certain, that has the makings of a potent offensive unit, which is a near certainty to finish top-10 if intact. However, if Brady can’t stay healthy, it’s hard to imagine Paxton Lynch having much of an impact in 2018. It’s also hard to imagine Ameer Abdullah carving out much of a role in a packed (Numbers-wise) Lions backfield. The same is true for Leonte Caroo, buried on the Dolphins’ depth chart and fighting for his roster spot, and Zay Jones, who was perhaps the worst receiver in football in 2017. Obviously, Houston is counting on a big improvement there. Defensively, there’s a little more depth, and with top-end talent as well. This unit was the heartbeat of the team a year ago, finishing fourth in the league in points. Though gone are Elandon Roberts, Martrell Spaight, and Mario Edwards Jr., everyone important is back, including a full season of JPP for the Texans. Add that to top-LBs Telvin Smith and Erick Kendricks, a well as solid starter De’Vondre Campbell, and a trio of DBs who averaged ~8 PPG a year ago, and you have another well-rounded unit that is likely headed for another top-10 finish.
X-factor: Offensive depth. Jettisoning Jamaal Williams may pay long-term dividends, but hurts in the short term, as well as the puzzling decision to not re-sign Keelan Cole. BUT, the combination of elite options on both sides of the ball should easily get Ryan back to the playoffs…just not as the division winner.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Indianapolis Colts (J.R.)
Last year’s finish: 20th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: The Good News: J.R.’s 2017 was worlds better than any other year in his history in the league. At 6-6, he finished .500 or better for the first time, and only missed the playoffs by a tie-breaker scenario. Now the bad news: Now INFamous Jameis went and got himself suspended for the first three games of the season. That means more Ryan Fitzmagic, who J.R. just signed at the writing of this article. However, that wasn’t a terrible thing last year, as the beardy Harvard man limited his turnovers in several spot starts and mop up jobs last year, something Winston has been loathe to do so far in his career. J.R. also sports a legitimate two-impact RB lineup, with Joe Mixon and Frank Gore (Whose role is supposed to reduce, but who is currently being billed as the 1B. to Kenyan Drake’s 1A. in Miami). The Colts are also better than average at their starting wideout positions, sporting the slowly-evolving red zone threat, Josh Doctson, and the seemingly ageless (So far) Tedd Ginn Jr. Depth at the position is relatively nonexistent, with Chris Moore hoping to slot back in as real-life Baltimore’s 5th WR, and rumors of rookie J’Mon Moore playing himself off Green Bay’s roster. Furthermore, Indy sports Elijah McGuire, who should at least be part of a committee in New York once he returns from injury. Tight end, however, is rather a dud for J.R., with only Jesse James, whose best skill in the NFL seems to be falling directly to the ground after his infrequent catches (In kinder words, he’s in a low-volume timeshare), and Maxx Williams, who’s one X away from being cut in a seemingly endless number of bodies TE competition in Baltimore. That said, the Colts’, who were just below average a year ago, should be slightly above average this year. Defensively, the Colts are mostly made up of solid, but not elite players, but the unit is on the rise. For example, DeForest Buckner has improved drastically, and B.J. Goodson was a 10 PPG player in the 7 games for which he was healthy last year. Marcus Peters, Christian Jones, Trae Waynes, Clay Matthews, Malik Hooker, and Fletcher Cox were all average or better at their positions. Rookies Uchenna Nwosu (Especially) and Denzel Ward should help at least some as well, but it was puzzling to see Indy release perhaps their second-best LB, Brian Orakpo, on an affordable contract, just before the season. Either way, this unit is likely to make an improvement, and should be slightly above average too.
X-factor: Offensive depth. This seems to be a common theme so far, but J.R. really needs to improve his offensive stables if he’s serious about making a run at the playoffs. He may already have enough to squeak his way in, but may be a piece or two away from a serious run.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Jacksonville Jaguars (Jordan)
Last year’s finish: 6th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Jordan’s 2017 was a relative disappointment compared to his rollicking start in 2016, in which he went 11-1, won the AFC South by 6 games, set the single-season offensive league scoring record by over 9 PPG, and a narrow-margin defeat in the Second Round to Garrett. And while the Jaguars finished 8-4, and undefeated in division, they scored over 300 points fewer than the year before. However, his trade deadline deals put him in a better, and more-sustainable position for the future. Offensively, Jordan still managed to finish 4th last year, and returns Russell Wilson, most-importantly David Johnson, whose injury played a large part in JAX’s offensive “struggles” in 2017, Antonio Brown, Doug Baldwin, Marshawn Lynch, and Mohamed Sanu. Additionally, the Jaguars have several ancillary pieces, like Devontae Booker, Ed Dickson, Tyler Boyd, Bruce Ellington and Jake Butt, but none are sure things. The sum of them probably equates to one of the best teams for offensive depth, if not the best, in either conference. Tight end probably could use an upgrade too, if possible, but it’s nefarious enough based on the talent of the rest of the offense that even slightly below average returns on the position can probably be hidden. The loss of Derrius Guice to a season-ending ACL injury, however, hurts, if for no other reason, flexibility in the lineup/flipping some of these extra pieces for defensive help…which, segue: Jacksonville needs. Much like the offensive bench pieces, beyond mainstays like Kwon Alexander, Jaquiski Tartt and Ndamukong Suh, it looks a lot like JAX’s offensive bench pieces: A lot of guys who might hit, but might not. In the aggregate, they’ll probably be okay (And with that offense, not being able to hold a lead so-to-speak would be a monumental task), with names like Tyler Matakevich, Kick Kwiatkoski, and Brock Coyle to serve in at least LB super-sub roles, and John Johnson and Adrian Phillips projected as serviceable DBs after similar 2017 seasons. Bottom line: JAX simply can’t afford to not improve on last year’s 24th-ranked defense and get back to their 2016 form.
X-factor: Defense. It’s no state secret where Jacksonville’s faults lie. No doubt Jordan will be in the market all season long to try to upgrade this unit. If he can, he may in fact be the top-seed in all the AFC. If he can’t…he still likely has enough to get by Ryan’s Texans. This offense is just too good, with too many options, not to hit on enough big games from said options, and to drop 70 or more on a team every week. If Jordan manages to meet or even exceed my proclamation, he’s going to do very well for himself this year.
Projected division finish: 1st
Tennessee Titans (Erik)
Last year’s finish: 17th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Much like the X-Men film series, Erik returns! Also like the Marvel Comics’ antihero, there’s a lot of magic that needs to be done to this roster before it earns its mettle (Okay, I promise, that was an unintentional pun). Alex Smith returns to man the helm for the Titans, and before you dismiss him and his anomaly of a 2017 season, remember that Garrett won our league’s championship in 2014 with Smith running the show. What is more concerning is the rest of the offense, with C.J. Anderson, looking in line for a diminished role behind newly-minted 3-down back Christian McCaffrey, and the injured Paul Perkins, the only options at RB, and Robert Woods the only sure thing at WR. Mike Wallace and Terrance Williams will probably perform well enough to contribute effectively, but TE is a toss-up, between low-ceiling A.J. Derby, Erik Swoope, and rookies Tony Fumagali and Chris Herndon, who may even start, but is in an offense that has thrown the least passes of any in the league to TEs in the last two years. On the defensive side of the ball, Tennessee’s 2017 unit was decidedly average in all areas except for one: The defensive line. The two players in particular who made that dominance the case last year, Melvin Ingram and Cameron Heyward, both return for 2018. In fact, the whole unit, minus Von Miller and Kareem Jackson, perhaps the Titans’ best defensive players last year. Denzel Perryman, Lorenzo Alexander, Terrell Suggs, James Burgess Jr., Alex Anzalone, and Shane Ray make up the LB corps, and Bradley McDougald, and Chris Harris Jr., at DB. Overall, it’s just an average unit, without many holes, or superstars.
X-factor: Future. Erik’s got a lot of work to do with a lot of dead weight, specifically on the offensive side of the roster. BUT, he does have three first round picks already for 2019, and if some of his young players develop headed into next year, it’s possible that he can make an ascent up the division totem pole.
Projected division finish: 4th
Remember to watch out for the third of our divisional previews, this time the NFC North, which should drop in the next few days. Thanks again guys.
Next up on the list, we look in on the AFC South, a division that finished last season with the highest-average finish of any division, despite being projected as the second-worst division in the Pre-Season Divisional Power Rankings. Last year also saw the successful debut of a new owner (Ryan), another deep playoff run by Jacksonville (Jordan), and two .500 seasons from a couple of surprise teams (Indianapolis, J.R., and Tennessee, Laura). Former long-time GM Erik volunteered to step back into the fold, and into the AFC South, though this time with Tennessee rather than Houston. Each has seemingly made some improvements, so it’s entirely possible that we see a similarly, if not more, competitive division race this year. Can J.R. get over the hump and finally make the playoffs? Will Erik’s reentry go as smoothly as he hopes? Will Jordan get back on top? Will Houston keep the title and his bragging rights? Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Houston Texans (Ryan)
Last year’s finish: 3rd (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Ryan took the league by storm last year, joining us just on the eve of the season, yet finishing with a 9-3 record, claiming the AFC South title over perennial power, and close friend, Jordan, ripping off two playoff wins, and finishing third overall. That first year (Post year-1 in the league) is rivaled by only two others in recent memory: Mett’s 2014, and Jordan’s 2017, which closely mirror Ryan’s 2017. Will the Texans fare better than Mett did in 2015? Well, that’s a complicated answer. It’s almost certainly a yes, but there are several areas for concern. First off, there isn’t a lot of offensive depth beyond the starting unit. Tom Brady is one of the top-QBs in fantasy (And was No. 2 at the position last year), and DeAndre Hopkins was also WR No. 2 in 2017. So it’s no wonder that’s where Ryan’s bread will be buttered this year. In fact, his lineup does a good job of supplementing them, with Alex Collins, Jimmy Graham, Michael Crabtree, and Nick Chubb. For certain, that has the makings of a potent offensive unit, which is a near certainty to finish top-10 if intact. However, if Brady can’t stay healthy, it’s hard to imagine Paxton Lynch having much of an impact in 2018. It’s also hard to imagine Ameer Abdullah carving out much of a role in a packed (Numbers-wise) Lions backfield. The same is true for Leonte Caroo, buried on the Dolphins’ depth chart and fighting for his roster spot, and Zay Jones, who was perhaps the worst receiver in football in 2017. Obviously, Houston is counting on a big improvement there. Defensively, there’s a little more depth, and with top-end talent as well. This unit was the heartbeat of the team a year ago, finishing fourth in the league in points. Though gone are Elandon Roberts, Martrell Spaight, and Mario Edwards Jr., everyone important is back, including a full season of JPP for the Texans. Add that to top-LBs Telvin Smith and Erick Kendricks, a well as solid starter De’Vondre Campbell, and a trio of DBs who averaged ~8 PPG a year ago, and you have another well-rounded unit that is likely headed for another top-10 finish.
X-factor: Offensive depth. Jettisoning Jamaal Williams may pay long-term dividends, but hurts in the short term, as well as the puzzling decision to not re-sign Keelan Cole. BUT, the combination of elite options on both sides of the ball should easily get Ryan back to the playoffs…just not as the division winner.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Indianapolis Colts (J.R.)
Last year’s finish: 20th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: The Good News: J.R.’s 2017 was worlds better than any other year in his history in the league. At 6-6, he finished .500 or better for the first time, and only missed the playoffs by a tie-breaker scenario. Now the bad news: Now INFamous Jameis went and got himself suspended for the first three games of the season. That means more Ryan Fitzmagic, who J.R. just signed at the writing of this article. However, that wasn’t a terrible thing last year, as the beardy Harvard man limited his turnovers in several spot starts and mop up jobs last year, something Winston has been loathe to do so far in his career. J.R. also sports a legitimate two-impact RB lineup, with Joe Mixon and Frank Gore (Whose role is supposed to reduce, but who is currently being billed as the 1B. to Kenyan Drake’s 1A. in Miami). The Colts are also better than average at their starting wideout positions, sporting the slowly-evolving red zone threat, Josh Doctson, and the seemingly ageless (So far) Tedd Ginn Jr. Depth at the position is relatively nonexistent, with Chris Moore hoping to slot back in as real-life Baltimore’s 5th WR, and rumors of rookie J’Mon Moore playing himself off Green Bay’s roster. Furthermore, Indy sports Elijah McGuire, who should at least be part of a committee in New York once he returns from injury. Tight end, however, is rather a dud for J.R., with only Jesse James, whose best skill in the NFL seems to be falling directly to the ground after his infrequent catches (In kinder words, he’s in a low-volume timeshare), and Maxx Williams, who’s one X away from being cut in a seemingly endless number of bodies TE competition in Baltimore. That said, the Colts’, who were just below average a year ago, should be slightly above average this year. Defensively, the Colts are mostly made up of solid, but not elite players, but the unit is on the rise. For example, DeForest Buckner has improved drastically, and B.J. Goodson was a 10 PPG player in the 7 games for which he was healthy last year. Marcus Peters, Christian Jones, Trae Waynes, Clay Matthews, Malik Hooker, and Fletcher Cox were all average or better at their positions. Rookies Uchenna Nwosu (Especially) and Denzel Ward should help at least some as well, but it was puzzling to see Indy release perhaps their second-best LB, Brian Orakpo, on an affordable contract, just before the season. Either way, this unit is likely to make an improvement, and should be slightly above average too.
X-factor: Offensive depth. This seems to be a common theme so far, but J.R. really needs to improve his offensive stables if he’s serious about making a run at the playoffs. He may already have enough to squeak his way in, but may be a piece or two away from a serious run.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Jacksonville Jaguars (Jordan)
Last year’s finish: 6th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Jordan’s 2017 was a relative disappointment compared to his rollicking start in 2016, in which he went 11-1, won the AFC South by 6 games, set the single-season offensive league scoring record by over 9 PPG, and a narrow-margin defeat in the Second Round to Garrett. And while the Jaguars finished 8-4, and undefeated in division, they scored over 300 points fewer than the year before. However, his trade deadline deals put him in a better, and more-sustainable position for the future. Offensively, Jordan still managed to finish 4th last year, and returns Russell Wilson, most-importantly David Johnson, whose injury played a large part in JAX’s offensive “struggles” in 2017, Antonio Brown, Doug Baldwin, Marshawn Lynch, and Mohamed Sanu. Additionally, the Jaguars have several ancillary pieces, like Devontae Booker, Ed Dickson, Tyler Boyd, Bruce Ellington and Jake Butt, but none are sure things. The sum of them probably equates to one of the best teams for offensive depth, if not the best, in either conference. Tight end probably could use an upgrade too, if possible, but it’s nefarious enough based on the talent of the rest of the offense that even slightly below average returns on the position can probably be hidden. The loss of Derrius Guice to a season-ending ACL injury, however, hurts, if for no other reason, flexibility in the lineup/flipping some of these extra pieces for defensive help…which, segue: Jacksonville needs. Much like the offensive bench pieces, beyond mainstays like Kwon Alexander, Jaquiski Tartt and Ndamukong Suh, it looks a lot like JAX’s offensive bench pieces: A lot of guys who might hit, but might not. In the aggregate, they’ll probably be okay (And with that offense, not being able to hold a lead so-to-speak would be a monumental task), with names like Tyler Matakevich, Kick Kwiatkoski, and Brock Coyle to serve in at least LB super-sub roles, and John Johnson and Adrian Phillips projected as serviceable DBs after similar 2017 seasons. Bottom line: JAX simply can’t afford to not improve on last year’s 24th-ranked defense and get back to their 2016 form.
X-factor: Defense. It’s no state secret where Jacksonville’s faults lie. No doubt Jordan will be in the market all season long to try to upgrade this unit. If he can, he may in fact be the top-seed in all the AFC. If he can’t…he still likely has enough to get by Ryan’s Texans. This offense is just too good, with too many options, not to hit on enough big games from said options, and to drop 70 or more on a team every week. If Jordan manages to meet or even exceed my proclamation, he’s going to do very well for himself this year.
Projected division finish: 1st
Tennessee Titans (Erik)
Last year’s finish: 17th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Much like the X-Men film series, Erik returns! Also like the Marvel Comics’ antihero, there’s a lot of magic that needs to be done to this roster before it earns its mettle (Okay, I promise, that was an unintentional pun). Alex Smith returns to man the helm for the Titans, and before you dismiss him and his anomaly of a 2017 season, remember that Garrett won our league’s championship in 2014 with Smith running the show. What is more concerning is the rest of the offense, with C.J. Anderson, looking in line for a diminished role behind newly-minted 3-down back Christian McCaffrey, and the injured Paul Perkins, the only options at RB, and Robert Woods the only sure thing at WR. Mike Wallace and Terrance Williams will probably perform well enough to contribute effectively, but TE is a toss-up, between low-ceiling A.J. Derby, Erik Swoope, and rookies Tony Fumagali and Chris Herndon, who may even start, but is in an offense that has thrown the least passes of any in the league to TEs in the last two years. On the defensive side of the ball, Tennessee’s 2017 unit was decidedly average in all areas except for one: The defensive line. The two players in particular who made that dominance the case last year, Melvin Ingram and Cameron Heyward, both return for 2018. In fact, the whole unit, minus Von Miller and Kareem Jackson, perhaps the Titans’ best defensive players last year. Denzel Perryman, Lorenzo Alexander, Terrell Suggs, James Burgess Jr., Alex Anzalone, and Shane Ray make up the LB corps, and Bradley McDougald, and Chris Harris Jr., at DB. Overall, it’s just an average unit, without many holes, or superstars.
X-factor: Future. Erik’s got a lot of work to do with a lot of dead weight, specifically on the offensive side of the roster. BUT, he does have three first round picks already for 2019, and if some of his young players develop headed into next year, it’s possible that he can make an ascent up the division totem pole.
Projected division finish: 4th
Remember to watch out for the third of our divisional previews, this time the NFC North, which should drop in the next few days. Thanks again guys.