Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Sept 7, 2017 2:14:35 GMT -5
AFC WEST
This time we look into the AFC West, the division that produced a lone playoff team (SD…at the time) last year, which broke a streak of producing at least two postseason clubs every year in the league’s history I believe (All the way back to 2009). Last year I spoke of every team winning at least 5 games and holding the division lead at some point in 2015. I posed the question, “So with that in mind, has anything these teams have done separated them from the rest of the field? Can a team from the West become an elite team in 2016?” San Diego (Now LAC) answered that question resolutely, winning at 9 games with a 3-0 division record, and advancing to the Second Round of the playoffs. The question this year is, can anyone in the division hope to catch up with him? This is the only division I projected perfectly last year, so let’s see if I can do it again. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Denver Broncos (Steve)
Last year’s finish: 18th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Steve did well to pick up Dak Prescott on a free agent bid just before last season (And that’s understating it). No, I don’t think he had a crystal ball, but even though it was fortuitous, it still made him look good. Running back doesn’t have the rosiest outlook, but should be well manned this year behind Jonathan Stewart and Samaje Perine. Wide receiver is also well stocked, with Stefon Diggs, Jeremy Kerley, Braxton Miller, Dontrelle Inman and Curtis Samuel (If he could ever get and stay healthy). Tight end is also well looked-after, with Zach Ertz and Darren Fells in reserve. Defensively, the unit is not quite as good as the offense, but is at worst an average unit. The defensive line may need some work, as Steve has opted to go with only two DL at the moment (Alan Branch and Chris Jones). Linebacker could be great, depending on if Anthony Barr, Preston Smith and Kevin Minter have bounce back years. Kamalei Correa could be a huge contributor, along with Alec Ogletree, if he runs with the Ravens’ starting ILB job. As for DBs, the Broncos sport several options with Logan Ryan, Corey Graham, Artie Burns and Josh Norman, but none of them are likely elite options at the position. Obi Melifonwu, who was a Second Round pick of Denver, has been put on Injured Reserve by Oakland, a disappointment for Steve.
X-factor: Luck. Steve’s assembled a very nice roster, capable of making the playoffs if not also making a run at the division.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Kansas City Chiefs (John)
Last year’s finish: 20th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: John made some interesting moves a year ago when taking over for a franchise that has sought to find an identity since Brooks left. Some of them paid off, some of them did not. But the Chiefs are hoping for a year-2 improvement. Blake Bortles is the quarterback (For now), with Zach Zenner, Jerick McKinnon, Kyle Juszczyk and Jeremy McNichols bringing up the rear. Marlon Mack may make a year-1 impact, but Kansas City probably can’t afford to count on that. Rishard Matthews and Tyrell Williams both have suffered from their organizations drafting young wide receivers high in the draft, but should be decent. Sammie Coates may have a better situation in Cleveland, but as of now is only the fourth or fifth best on their depth chart. Tight end is also a question mark with Dion Sims not guaranteed a role with Chicago and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins far from a lock to return value based on his spotty history. Defensively, KC is in a better position, with Aaron Donald (When he does return), Leonard Williams, Jeremiah Attaochu and Jabaal Sheard manning the defensive line, Chandler Jones, Christian Kirksey at linebacker (And only Raekwon McMillan as a reserve, which is not good considering he’s on IR), and Tre Boston, Vernon Hargreaves III and Eli Apple at DB.
X-factor: Running back/Defensive depth. Kansas City needs more bodies defensively at LB and DB, as well as a surefire starting RB. Without those, it’s going to be difficult to stay competitive this year and ascend the division totem pole.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Los Angeles Chargers (Trey)
Last year’s finish: 7th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Last year, Trey’s second in the league, he ascended the hierarchy rather rapidly, winning the AFC West and making it into the Second Round of the playoffs. Primed for another division run, Trey brings back top performers Derek Carr, Mark Ingram, Emmanuel Sanders and Tyreek Hill, as well as Corey Coleman, Tyler Lockett, Devante Parker and Cameron Brate who should all significantly contribute this year. Rookies Jonnu Smith and Kenny Golladay could have some value, and James White isn’t useless (Although leave it to someone smarter than me to predict the Patriots’ backfield usage). Defensively, Trey has Khalil Mack as its only established starter on the DL (But he scores enough for two normal DL). The linebacking corps is made up of Benardrick McKinney, Deone Bucannon, Jatavis Brown, Nick Vigil and rookie Jalen Reeves-Maybin. That should be more than sufficient, particularly if Brown keeps his role and Vigil wins and keeps his. In the secondary, Karl Joseph, Sean Williams and Andrew Sendejo make up the full accounting of the position. It’s a high-upside but low-numbers proposition that hopefully won’t drag Trey down.
X-factor: DL/DB. Trey has pretty much everything else covered at this moment. The key now is to make sure that two of the least important positions in fantasy don’t stop the Chargers from repeating as division champ or beyond. Perhaps he should trade from an excess of offensive skill position players to make up the deficiency.
Projected division finish: 1st
Oakland Raiders (League Run)
Last year’s finish: 27th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Chris (OAK) made some nice moves in the Rookie Draft, moving back, netting picks, and QB of the future Deshaun Watson. He also made some late high-upside DB and DL picks. But after the draft, Chris ghosted us (To borrow a term from popular appeal) and had to be (And has yet to be replaced…so if you know of anybody, let a LM know and sign them up pronto!). There are a decent number of potential contributors on the offensive side of the ball, beyond QB of the now, Tom Savage, and Watson, there are Bilal Powell, Pierre Garcon, Brandon LaFell, Will Tye and Ryan Grant. That, by itself, would not be the worst starting unit in the league, but there is scarce to no depth, as the Raiders went defense-heavy. Defensively, there is an excess of DL and DB due to Oakland’s draft, and they are solid at both of those positions. Mario Addison, Shaq Lawson, rookie Charles Harris anchor the current unit, and IR/suspended players Nick Fairley and Randy Gregory exist for the future. Linebacker, however, is the weakest in the league by far. Despite recent additions, the Raiders only have three LBs currently on rosters. Defensive backs, by comparison, are well stocked for both current and future. They won’t be the reason that OAK doesn’t compete this year. Almost everything else will.
X-factor: Finding an owner for OAK. For the second-consecutive year, this is the same reprise. We need an owner for OAK. Without one, it’s just me throwing darts. Again, if you know of someone, please let a LM know and get them registered ASAP.
Projected division finish: 4th
And look! I made the exact same projections two years running. Remember to watch out for the sixth and seventh of our divisional previews in each of the following two days, and the Pre-Season Power Rankings will drop Saturday or Sunday morning.
This time we look into the AFC West, the division that produced a lone playoff team (SD…at the time) last year, which broke a streak of producing at least two postseason clubs every year in the league’s history I believe (All the way back to 2009). Last year I spoke of every team winning at least 5 games and holding the division lead at some point in 2015. I posed the question, “So with that in mind, has anything these teams have done separated them from the rest of the field? Can a team from the West become an elite team in 2016?” San Diego (Now LAC) answered that question resolutely, winning at 9 games with a 3-0 division record, and advancing to the Second Round of the playoffs. The question this year is, can anyone in the division hope to catch up with him? This is the only division I projected perfectly last year, so let’s see if I can do it again. Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Denver Broncos (Steve)
Last year’s finish: 18th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: Steve did well to pick up Dak Prescott on a free agent bid just before last season (And that’s understating it). No, I don’t think he had a crystal ball, but even though it was fortuitous, it still made him look good. Running back doesn’t have the rosiest outlook, but should be well manned this year behind Jonathan Stewart and Samaje Perine. Wide receiver is also well stocked, with Stefon Diggs, Jeremy Kerley, Braxton Miller, Dontrelle Inman and Curtis Samuel (If he could ever get and stay healthy). Tight end is also well looked-after, with Zach Ertz and Darren Fells in reserve. Defensively, the unit is not quite as good as the offense, but is at worst an average unit. The defensive line may need some work, as Steve has opted to go with only two DL at the moment (Alan Branch and Chris Jones). Linebacker could be great, depending on if Anthony Barr, Preston Smith and Kevin Minter have bounce back years. Kamalei Correa could be a huge contributor, along with Alec Ogletree, if he runs with the Ravens’ starting ILB job. As for DBs, the Broncos sport several options with Logan Ryan, Corey Graham, Artie Burns and Josh Norman, but none of them are likely elite options at the position. Obi Melifonwu, who was a Second Round pick of Denver, has been put on Injured Reserve by Oakland, a disappointment for Steve.
X-factor: Luck. Steve’s assembled a very nice roster, capable of making the playoffs if not also making a run at the division.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Kansas City Chiefs (John)
Last year’s finish: 20th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: John made some interesting moves a year ago when taking over for a franchise that has sought to find an identity since Brooks left. Some of them paid off, some of them did not. But the Chiefs are hoping for a year-2 improvement. Blake Bortles is the quarterback (For now), with Zach Zenner, Jerick McKinnon, Kyle Juszczyk and Jeremy McNichols bringing up the rear. Marlon Mack may make a year-1 impact, but Kansas City probably can’t afford to count on that. Rishard Matthews and Tyrell Williams both have suffered from their organizations drafting young wide receivers high in the draft, but should be decent. Sammie Coates may have a better situation in Cleveland, but as of now is only the fourth or fifth best on their depth chart. Tight end is also a question mark with Dion Sims not guaranteed a role with Chicago and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins far from a lock to return value based on his spotty history. Defensively, KC is in a better position, with Aaron Donald (When he does return), Leonard Williams, Jeremiah Attaochu and Jabaal Sheard manning the defensive line, Chandler Jones, Christian Kirksey at linebacker (And only Raekwon McMillan as a reserve, which is not good considering he’s on IR), and Tre Boston, Vernon Hargreaves III and Eli Apple at DB.
X-factor: Running back/Defensive depth. Kansas City needs more bodies defensively at LB and DB, as well as a surefire starting RB. Without those, it’s going to be difficult to stay competitive this year and ascend the division totem pole.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Los Angeles Chargers (Trey)
Last year’s finish: 7th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Last year, Trey’s second in the league, he ascended the hierarchy rather rapidly, winning the AFC West and making it into the Second Round of the playoffs. Primed for another division run, Trey brings back top performers Derek Carr, Mark Ingram, Emmanuel Sanders and Tyreek Hill, as well as Corey Coleman, Tyler Lockett, Devante Parker and Cameron Brate who should all significantly contribute this year. Rookies Jonnu Smith and Kenny Golladay could have some value, and James White isn’t useless (Although leave it to someone smarter than me to predict the Patriots’ backfield usage). Defensively, Trey has Khalil Mack as its only established starter on the DL (But he scores enough for two normal DL). The linebacking corps is made up of Benardrick McKinney, Deone Bucannon, Jatavis Brown, Nick Vigil and rookie Jalen Reeves-Maybin. That should be more than sufficient, particularly if Brown keeps his role and Vigil wins and keeps his. In the secondary, Karl Joseph, Sean Williams and Andrew Sendejo make up the full accounting of the position. It’s a high-upside but low-numbers proposition that hopefully won’t drag Trey down.
X-factor: DL/DB. Trey has pretty much everything else covered at this moment. The key now is to make sure that two of the least important positions in fantasy don’t stop the Chargers from repeating as division champ or beyond. Perhaps he should trade from an excess of offensive skill position players to make up the deficiency.
Projected division finish: 1st
Oakland Raiders (League Run)
Last year’s finish: 27th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: Chris (OAK) made some nice moves in the Rookie Draft, moving back, netting picks, and QB of the future Deshaun Watson. He also made some late high-upside DB and DL picks. But after the draft, Chris ghosted us (To borrow a term from popular appeal) and had to be (And has yet to be replaced…so if you know of anybody, let a LM know and sign them up pronto!). There are a decent number of potential contributors on the offensive side of the ball, beyond QB of the now, Tom Savage, and Watson, there are Bilal Powell, Pierre Garcon, Brandon LaFell, Will Tye and Ryan Grant. That, by itself, would not be the worst starting unit in the league, but there is scarce to no depth, as the Raiders went defense-heavy. Defensively, there is an excess of DL and DB due to Oakland’s draft, and they are solid at both of those positions. Mario Addison, Shaq Lawson, rookie Charles Harris anchor the current unit, and IR/suspended players Nick Fairley and Randy Gregory exist for the future. Linebacker, however, is the weakest in the league by far. Despite recent additions, the Raiders only have three LBs currently on rosters. Defensive backs, by comparison, are well stocked for both current and future. They won’t be the reason that OAK doesn’t compete this year. Almost everything else will.
X-factor: Finding an owner for OAK. For the second-consecutive year, this is the same reprise. We need an owner for OAK. Without one, it’s just me throwing darts. Again, if you know of someone, please let a LM know and get them registered ASAP.
Projected division finish: 4th
And look! I made the exact same projections two years running. Remember to watch out for the sixth and seventh of our divisional previews in each of the following two days, and the Pre-Season Power Rankings will drop Saturday or Sunday morning.