Post by Cincinnati Bengals (Chris) on Aug 13, 2019 16:48:26 GMT -5
AFC WEST
The AFC West produced no elite teams in 2018, with all four teams finishing within four games of one another, and three between the records of 7-5 and 5-7. This year, with Kansas City being removed and replaced for inactivity and starting inactives, and Denver being warned for the same, the division should have a new look and competiveness. All four teams are making moves like they’re contenders, and it honestly is hard to fault them for feeling that way—unless they manage to beat up on each other so much that they drag each other down. Can Amanda make another splash after making a big deal upon entering the league? Will Steve’s additions be enough to crack the top-two and return to the playoffs? Did Oakland do enough over the offseason to ascend to the top of the division? And did San Diego do enough to hang on? All will be revealed in due time, but one thing is for sure: It should be fun (And again, competitive. Competitive is the ordinate word). Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Denver Broncos (Steve)
Last year’s finish: 17th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: Very few teams have improved as much as the Broncos have over the last two offseasons. While it hasn’t manifested in the record department yet, it’s about to (Provided Steve sets his lineup and doesn’t have any issues with inactives). Steve was .500 or better his first three seasons in the league, but fell under that mark in each of his last two. Yet, it’s hard not to notice the work that he has been doing—having probably the best draft of any owner, trading up to acquire David Montgomery, and then back in to net another potential impact player in Diontae Johnson—especially considering the eminently reasonable price he paid to do so. In addition to those moves, he traded for Jaylon Smith at the 2017 trade deadline, drafting Roquan Smith, Antonio Callaway, and Jaylen Samuels in the 2018 Rookie Draft, and making trades for Larry Fitzgerald, and Jared Cook. That is a stark amount of talent to add to any team, much less over a two-year stretch. Starting with the offense, Dak Prescott is likely a slightly better than average fantasy quarterback if Ezekiel Elliott returns in time for the season. The aforementioned big additions, Montgomery, and Johnson, who is apparently currently leading for the Steelers’ third receiver job, give the Broncos two pieces who should provide some production, as well as representing substantial future pieces. Behind the rookie at running back and jack of all trades but master of none from a fantasy perspective, Samuels, there are only uninspiring options—Raheem Mostert, who is at best the 49ers 4th running back (Should they keep him), coming off one of the worst broken arms I’ve ever seen, Samaje Perine, who also may not make his team’s 53-man roster to start the year. Wide receiver has slightly better quality depth, combining veterans who are firmly in the downward arcs of their career, but who are still somewhat productive—in Larry Fitzgerald, Randall Cobb, and Torrey Smith—and up-and-coming youngsters Callaway and Johnson. That five-man group is top-half in the league, and has the potential to be even better if Callaway, whose decision making makes Antonio Brown look comparatively sane, can improve and earn his teammates/coaching staff’s trust after his four-game suspension, and Johnson, should he be able to carve out a significant role. At tight end, Jared Cook presents a plus option in a league suddenly looking decrepit for fantasy bodies at the position. Defensively, the bones are there, but there are far bigger issues than the Broncos’ offensive counterparts. Chris Jones and Derek Wolfe should be a more than effective tandem at DL, though there is scarce depth behind them, with only Carl Lawson, who is still recovering from an ACL tear in October last year, and is buried on the Bengals’ depth chart, in tow. Linebacker is clearly Denver’s best position on defense, with stalwarts Smith in the middle, and often good-but-not-great (At least for fantasy purposes) Anthony Barr anchoring the position. Nathan Gerry and Darron Lee, both of whom should at a minimum contribute, may also be earmarked for larger roles now, due to injuries and ineffectiveness in their respective real life depth charts. Antonio Morrison also continues to hang out. At defensive back, Denver fields a bottom-5 cohort of Pierre Desir, Artie Burns, and Jahleel Addae. While defensive back is historically the easiest position to obtain average or better players at in this league, this represents a major problem area for Steve at present.
X-factor: Defensive back. Honestly, I hate harping on a position that, as I mentioned before, is easiest to acquire, but his current crop is that bad. In one of the most holty-contested divisions that may very likely produce three playoff teams, Steve’s Broncos are just off the pace, and upgrading at that position, at least, is a necessity.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Kansas City Chiefs (Amanda)
Last year’s finish: 28th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: It must be said that Amanda has made some aggressive moves as a rookie GM—some that portend well for the long-term health of her team, and others that are a little bit harder to explain/understand—Chiefly the mystifying one in which she forfeited a starting QB and RB on long-term deals for a one-year rental of a top-5 QB, despite looking nowhere near a contender at present. That said, if she didn’t believe in Lamar Jackson advancing as a passer, and can hit on her 2020 picks, there could be a very different understanding of that trade in years to come. In addition to those moves, she gave up a rookie 2nd to acquire a starting LB, and then shipped him off for a DB (Despite already having five others on roster), but also drafted T.J. Hockenson and Damien Harris. So to say it has been a mixed bag so far is an understatement. Looking at the Chiefs’ offense, there are some nice pieces, and some areas that need improvement—as Amanda has admitted herself. Brees will be at the center of everything she does this season, as will his $12.5/1y contract. It remains to be seen if she can flip him to a contender by the trade deadline and recoup further draft (Or otherwise) capital. Gus Edwards, assuming he maintains a large role in Baltimore’s seven (Or is it eight) headed running back corps, as he was productive down the stretch. The aforementioned Harris is being raved about in Patriots camp, and apparently, may be their primary back (Though they are notoriously an RBBC under Belichick). Austin Ekeler is in line for a much larger role as well, as of now, with Melvin Gordon holding out for more money, and Jerick McKinnon, if and when he’s ever back from injury, is going to have some kind of role in SF’s RBBC. Having two fantasy relevant backs, if it plays out that way, is a huge game-changer—Having four is something else entirely. Unfortunately, so is having only one fantasy relevant wide receiver, which, at present, after Rishard Matthews’ sudden retirement, is the case. That fantasy relevant receiver: The to this point timeless DeSean Jackson, now joining a crowded WR corps in Philly. Kansas City’s only other options are Maurice Harris, who, depending on who you believe, will either lead the world in receiving, or won’t make the Patriots 53-man roster out of camp. Hayden Hurst was also acquired in that trade for Brees, and flashes a first round pedigree—but has been used as more of a blocker to this point, and has so far been out-produced by fellow 2018 rookie and teammate Mark Andrews. Defense is similarly interesting, with Aaron Donald, Leonard Williams, Javon Hargrave, and Derek Rivers manning the line. The top-three make for a formidable trio. Linebacker was stronger with Jatavis Brown’s inclusion, but is strong up top with the duo of Christian Kirksey and Raekwon McMillan. Beyond those two and Lorenzo Carter, there is not one other linebacker on roster. That is problematic. At defensive back, a sextet of Reshad Jones, Vernon Hargreaves, Josh Jackson, Eli Apple, Tarvarius Moore, and Josh Norman proves the theory that the best way to corner the market on DBs is to buy in bulk on average-ish producing corners. That was corny.
X-factor: Adding at WR and LB. First years are always hard for owners in this league, but Amanda appeared to draft well, and has some positive future pieces, as well as current ones, in the stable. As long as she doesn’t start inactives on a weekly basis, she’ll be better than her predecessor John. Adding at WR and LB, especially if she has an influx of RBs, would be the prudent call here if she wants any shot at playoff contention in a loaded and fiercely competitive division.
Projected division finish: 4th
Los Angeles Chargers (Trey)
Last year’s finish: 11th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Trey won the AFC West for the third consecutive year in 2018, but at 7-5, it was a decided step down from 2016 (9-3) and 2017 (8-4). Additionally, the competition to prevent him from securing a potential fourth-straight division crown has taken a decided step up. For his part, Trey survived the potentially devastating Tyreek Hill situation completely intact—refusing to move the oft-troubled (Off the field) wideout at a discount, in what now looks like a smart move—as he’s virtually irreplaceable. His return gives the Chargers as good a top-4 (Hill, Kenny Goalladay, DeVante Parker, and Anthony Miller) wide receiver as almost any team in the league). The rest of the offense is comprised of players with high ceilings, but mostly low floors (A function of Derek Carr’s below average fantasy performances of the last two years, Mark Ingram moving to a team with 8 million running backs, and Greg Olsen’s foot doing to him what he did to women as part of the Seventh Floor Crew). The bench is made up of less than dynamic options C.J. Anderson (Who has demonstrated the ability to go off if his team’s lead back goes down), Jonnu Smith (Who continues to offer theoretical upside, and gain opportunities—though he has done nothing to show that he deserves them yet), and rookies Kahale Warring and Darius Slayton. As of now, it’s clear the Chargers would be in trouble if any of their offensive regulars go down. Defensively, the depth is better, at least numbers-wise. That, however, is not the case on the defensive line, where currently, only Arik Armstead and Rasheem Greene are on the roster, neither of whom are at the top of their depth charts at their positions. Luke Kuechly and Benardrick McKinney man the middle, and are joined by a seemingly ascendant Nick Vigil. Beyond them are three potential role players, Malik Jefferson, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, and Breeland Speaks. Defensive back is particularly strong, with Shawn Williams, Justin Reid, Micah Hyde, Isaiah Oliver, and rookie Juan Thornhill all earmarked for significant snaps. It’s among the best DB units in the league.
X-factor: Depth. On offense, more depth is needed at RB and WR, and defensively, particularly at DL, and quality depth at LB. The question is, as this division is less about Trey’s inadequacies, does he have enough to fend off a challenge from Oakland, the most serious in-division that he’s faced in his four years in the West.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Oakland Raiders (Hunter)
Last year’s finish: 13th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: While the rest of the league was sleeping, Hunter came into the league, took a mostly garbage (But better than the garbage we thought it was) team to a .500 finish, just missing the playoffs, and then managed to snag the 8-seed a year ago, despite trading away major current pieces in Deshaun Watson, Dion Lewis, Jabrill Peppers, and Wesley Woodyard. For surrendering that group of impact players, Hunter netted the haul of Jimmy Garoppolo, Rashaad Penny, DJ Moore, Tahir Whitehead, and the ancillary piece of CJ Beathard. While it helped Philly to finally crest the hill and win a championship, it does beg the question if there may be regrets that set in for Andrew down the line. In addition to that trove of players, Hunter pulled off a blockbuster on the eve of the draft, trading for the second overall pick—N’Keal Harry. Since those moves, the Raiders have only continued to add, acquiring Robby Anderson (While jettisoning Kiko Alonso), and Eric Ebron (For a 1st and spare parts). With Jimmy G at QB, Kerryon Johnson, Moore, Anderson, Harry, Ebron, Penny, Delanie Walker, and as the early Gilligan’s Island theme song concluded “And the rest,” (HOW DARE YOU OMIT THE GOOD NAMES OF PROFESSOR AND MARY ANNE!?) we’re looking at one of the best offensive units in the league. On defense, Oakland is clearly not as robust as they are on the offensive side, but is well within the top-half, and potentially a top-10 team there. The defensive line has a solid foursome of Chandler Jones, Sheldon Richardson, Charles Harris, and Ed Oliver. Linebacker is strong at the top, with Joe Schobert and Alec Ogletree, but beyond that is a little bare, producing only Genard Avery, Jake Ryan, Barkevious Mingo, and Dru Tranquill. Defensive back has a decent mix of quality and depth, with the trio of Quandre Diggs, Terrell Edmunds, and Bradley McDougald, and Khari Willis in the fold as well.
X-factor: Health and linebacker depth. It’s hard to really pick a weakness for Oakland, aside from LB depth, as mentioned above. While Hunter doesn’t have many expendable assets, draft picks included, he may need to expend those to go all in at some point, just like Philadelphia did last season (As Michael Scott said, “Oh how the turn tables”). Short of health concerns, we’re potentially looking at a dominant team, and that should start with a division win this year.
Projected division finish: 1st
Thank you for reading this, the seventh in the series of Divisional Previews—the AFC West. I will publish the eighth and final installment, the AFC East, this coming week.
The AFC West produced no elite teams in 2018, with all four teams finishing within four games of one another, and three between the records of 7-5 and 5-7. This year, with Kansas City being removed and replaced for inactivity and starting inactives, and Denver being warned for the same, the division should have a new look and competiveness. All four teams are making moves like they’re contenders, and it honestly is hard to fault them for feeling that way—unless they manage to beat up on each other so much that they drag each other down. Can Amanda make another splash after making a big deal upon entering the league? Will Steve’s additions be enough to crack the top-two and return to the playoffs? Did Oakland do enough over the offseason to ascend to the top of the division? And did San Diego do enough to hang on? All will be revealed in due time, but one thing is for sure: It should be fun (And again, competitive. Competitive is the ordinate word). Let me know what you think about my projections and post you own comments. Also, DON’T FORGET to vote in the poll, as that’s the whole point.
Denver Broncos (Steve)
Last year’s finish: 17th (Division: 3rd)
Outlook: Very few teams have improved as much as the Broncos have over the last two offseasons. While it hasn’t manifested in the record department yet, it’s about to (Provided Steve sets his lineup and doesn’t have any issues with inactives). Steve was .500 or better his first three seasons in the league, but fell under that mark in each of his last two. Yet, it’s hard not to notice the work that he has been doing—having probably the best draft of any owner, trading up to acquire David Montgomery, and then back in to net another potential impact player in Diontae Johnson—especially considering the eminently reasonable price he paid to do so. In addition to those moves, he traded for Jaylon Smith at the 2017 trade deadline, drafting Roquan Smith, Antonio Callaway, and Jaylen Samuels in the 2018 Rookie Draft, and making trades for Larry Fitzgerald, and Jared Cook. That is a stark amount of talent to add to any team, much less over a two-year stretch. Starting with the offense, Dak Prescott is likely a slightly better than average fantasy quarterback if Ezekiel Elliott returns in time for the season. The aforementioned big additions, Montgomery, and Johnson, who is apparently currently leading for the Steelers’ third receiver job, give the Broncos two pieces who should provide some production, as well as representing substantial future pieces. Behind the rookie at running back and jack of all trades but master of none from a fantasy perspective, Samuels, there are only uninspiring options—Raheem Mostert, who is at best the 49ers 4th running back (Should they keep him), coming off one of the worst broken arms I’ve ever seen, Samaje Perine, who also may not make his team’s 53-man roster to start the year. Wide receiver has slightly better quality depth, combining veterans who are firmly in the downward arcs of their career, but who are still somewhat productive—in Larry Fitzgerald, Randall Cobb, and Torrey Smith—and up-and-coming youngsters Callaway and Johnson. That five-man group is top-half in the league, and has the potential to be even better if Callaway, whose decision making makes Antonio Brown look comparatively sane, can improve and earn his teammates/coaching staff’s trust after his four-game suspension, and Johnson, should he be able to carve out a significant role. At tight end, Jared Cook presents a plus option in a league suddenly looking decrepit for fantasy bodies at the position. Defensively, the bones are there, but there are far bigger issues than the Broncos’ offensive counterparts. Chris Jones and Derek Wolfe should be a more than effective tandem at DL, though there is scarce depth behind them, with only Carl Lawson, who is still recovering from an ACL tear in October last year, and is buried on the Bengals’ depth chart, in tow. Linebacker is clearly Denver’s best position on defense, with stalwarts Smith in the middle, and often good-but-not-great (At least for fantasy purposes) Anthony Barr anchoring the position. Nathan Gerry and Darron Lee, both of whom should at a minimum contribute, may also be earmarked for larger roles now, due to injuries and ineffectiveness in their respective real life depth charts. Antonio Morrison also continues to hang out. At defensive back, Denver fields a bottom-5 cohort of Pierre Desir, Artie Burns, and Jahleel Addae. While defensive back is historically the easiest position to obtain average or better players at in this league, this represents a major problem area for Steve at present.
X-factor: Defensive back. Honestly, I hate harping on a position that, as I mentioned before, is easiest to acquire, but his current crop is that bad. In one of the most holty-contested divisions that may very likely produce three playoff teams, Steve’s Broncos are just off the pace, and upgrading at that position, at least, is a necessity.
Projected division finish: 3rd
Kansas City Chiefs (Amanda)
Last year’s finish: 28th (Division: 4th)
Outlook: It must be said that Amanda has made some aggressive moves as a rookie GM—some that portend well for the long-term health of her team, and others that are a little bit harder to explain/understand—Chiefly the mystifying one in which she forfeited a starting QB and RB on long-term deals for a one-year rental of a top-5 QB, despite looking nowhere near a contender at present. That said, if she didn’t believe in Lamar Jackson advancing as a passer, and can hit on her 2020 picks, there could be a very different understanding of that trade in years to come. In addition to those moves, she gave up a rookie 2nd to acquire a starting LB, and then shipped him off for a DB (Despite already having five others on roster), but also drafted T.J. Hockenson and Damien Harris. So to say it has been a mixed bag so far is an understatement. Looking at the Chiefs’ offense, there are some nice pieces, and some areas that need improvement—as Amanda has admitted herself. Brees will be at the center of everything she does this season, as will his $12.5/1y contract. It remains to be seen if she can flip him to a contender by the trade deadline and recoup further draft (Or otherwise) capital. Gus Edwards, assuming he maintains a large role in Baltimore’s seven (Or is it eight) headed running back corps, as he was productive down the stretch. The aforementioned Harris is being raved about in Patriots camp, and apparently, may be their primary back (Though they are notoriously an RBBC under Belichick). Austin Ekeler is in line for a much larger role as well, as of now, with Melvin Gordon holding out for more money, and Jerick McKinnon, if and when he’s ever back from injury, is going to have some kind of role in SF’s RBBC. Having two fantasy relevant backs, if it plays out that way, is a huge game-changer—Having four is something else entirely. Unfortunately, so is having only one fantasy relevant wide receiver, which, at present, after Rishard Matthews’ sudden retirement, is the case. That fantasy relevant receiver: The to this point timeless DeSean Jackson, now joining a crowded WR corps in Philly. Kansas City’s only other options are Maurice Harris, who, depending on who you believe, will either lead the world in receiving, or won’t make the Patriots 53-man roster out of camp. Hayden Hurst was also acquired in that trade for Brees, and flashes a first round pedigree—but has been used as more of a blocker to this point, and has so far been out-produced by fellow 2018 rookie and teammate Mark Andrews. Defense is similarly interesting, with Aaron Donald, Leonard Williams, Javon Hargrave, and Derek Rivers manning the line. The top-three make for a formidable trio. Linebacker was stronger with Jatavis Brown’s inclusion, but is strong up top with the duo of Christian Kirksey and Raekwon McMillan. Beyond those two and Lorenzo Carter, there is not one other linebacker on roster. That is problematic. At defensive back, a sextet of Reshad Jones, Vernon Hargreaves, Josh Jackson, Eli Apple, Tarvarius Moore, and Josh Norman proves the theory that the best way to corner the market on DBs is to buy in bulk on average-ish producing corners. That was corny.
X-factor: Adding at WR and LB. First years are always hard for owners in this league, but Amanda appeared to draft well, and has some positive future pieces, as well as current ones, in the stable. As long as she doesn’t start inactives on a weekly basis, she’ll be better than her predecessor John. Adding at WR and LB, especially if she has an influx of RBs, would be the prudent call here if she wants any shot at playoff contention in a loaded and fiercely competitive division.
Projected division finish: 4th
Los Angeles Chargers (Trey)
Last year’s finish: 11th (Division: 1st)
Outlook: Trey won the AFC West for the third consecutive year in 2018, but at 7-5, it was a decided step down from 2016 (9-3) and 2017 (8-4). Additionally, the competition to prevent him from securing a potential fourth-straight division crown has taken a decided step up. For his part, Trey survived the potentially devastating Tyreek Hill situation completely intact—refusing to move the oft-troubled (Off the field) wideout at a discount, in what now looks like a smart move—as he’s virtually irreplaceable. His return gives the Chargers as good a top-4 (Hill, Kenny Goalladay, DeVante Parker, and Anthony Miller) wide receiver as almost any team in the league). The rest of the offense is comprised of players with high ceilings, but mostly low floors (A function of Derek Carr’s below average fantasy performances of the last two years, Mark Ingram moving to a team with 8 million running backs, and Greg Olsen’s foot doing to him what he did to women as part of the Seventh Floor Crew). The bench is made up of less than dynamic options C.J. Anderson (Who has demonstrated the ability to go off if his team’s lead back goes down), Jonnu Smith (Who continues to offer theoretical upside, and gain opportunities—though he has done nothing to show that he deserves them yet), and rookies Kahale Warring and Darius Slayton. As of now, it’s clear the Chargers would be in trouble if any of their offensive regulars go down. Defensively, the depth is better, at least numbers-wise. That, however, is not the case on the defensive line, where currently, only Arik Armstead and Rasheem Greene are on the roster, neither of whom are at the top of their depth charts at their positions. Luke Kuechly and Benardrick McKinney man the middle, and are joined by a seemingly ascendant Nick Vigil. Beyond them are three potential role players, Malik Jefferson, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, and Breeland Speaks. Defensive back is particularly strong, with Shawn Williams, Justin Reid, Micah Hyde, Isaiah Oliver, and rookie Juan Thornhill all earmarked for significant snaps. It’s among the best DB units in the league.
X-factor: Depth. On offense, more depth is needed at RB and WR, and defensively, particularly at DL, and quality depth at LB. The question is, as this division is less about Trey’s inadequacies, does he have enough to fend off a challenge from Oakland, the most serious in-division that he’s faced in his four years in the West.
Projected division finish: 2nd
Oakland Raiders (Hunter)
Last year’s finish: 13th (Division: 2nd)
Outlook: While the rest of the league was sleeping, Hunter came into the league, took a mostly garbage (But better than the garbage we thought it was) team to a .500 finish, just missing the playoffs, and then managed to snag the 8-seed a year ago, despite trading away major current pieces in Deshaun Watson, Dion Lewis, Jabrill Peppers, and Wesley Woodyard. For surrendering that group of impact players, Hunter netted the haul of Jimmy Garoppolo, Rashaad Penny, DJ Moore, Tahir Whitehead, and the ancillary piece of CJ Beathard. While it helped Philly to finally crest the hill and win a championship, it does beg the question if there may be regrets that set in for Andrew down the line. In addition to that trove of players, Hunter pulled off a blockbuster on the eve of the draft, trading for the second overall pick—N’Keal Harry. Since those moves, the Raiders have only continued to add, acquiring Robby Anderson (While jettisoning Kiko Alonso), and Eric Ebron (For a 1st and spare parts). With Jimmy G at QB, Kerryon Johnson, Moore, Anderson, Harry, Ebron, Penny, Delanie Walker, and as the early Gilligan’s Island theme song concluded “And the rest,” (HOW DARE YOU OMIT THE GOOD NAMES OF PROFESSOR AND MARY ANNE!?) we’re looking at one of the best offensive units in the league. On defense, Oakland is clearly not as robust as they are on the offensive side, but is well within the top-half, and potentially a top-10 team there. The defensive line has a solid foursome of Chandler Jones, Sheldon Richardson, Charles Harris, and Ed Oliver. Linebacker is strong at the top, with Joe Schobert and Alec Ogletree, but beyond that is a little bare, producing only Genard Avery, Jake Ryan, Barkevious Mingo, and Dru Tranquill. Defensive back has a decent mix of quality and depth, with the trio of Quandre Diggs, Terrell Edmunds, and Bradley McDougald, and Khari Willis in the fold as well.
X-factor: Health and linebacker depth. It’s hard to really pick a weakness for Oakland, aside from LB depth, as mentioned above. While Hunter doesn’t have many expendable assets, draft picks included, he may need to expend those to go all in at some point, just like Philadelphia did last season (As Michael Scott said, “Oh how the turn tables”). Short of health concerns, we’re potentially looking at a dominant team, and that should start with a division win this year.
Projected division finish: 1st
Thank you for reading this, the seventh in the series of Divisional Previews—the AFC West. I will publish the eighth and final installment, the AFC East, this coming week.